〔Day Digest〕First 25bp Hike Since 2023 Lifts the Long End, 80%+ Now Price Three More - Warsh Minutes, $61B Auctions and the Iran-Saudi Oil Tail Test the New Regime

0. Weekly Arc

[NEW] The Fed delivered a 25bp hike in September, the first since 2023, and the dot plot signals possibly one more this year ^[1]. The market is pricing 80%+ odds of three or more Fed hikes over the next 12 months, and the ECB and BOJ also moved 25bp apiece in September ^[1]. Yet long-end rates are already climbing on September PMI surprises, and a $61B 10s30s auction cluster, the FOMC minutes and a G7-coordinated SPR release against a live Iran-Saudi tail will test the new Warsh regime this week ^[2][1].

1. The Warsh Regime

• [NEW] Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Fed Chair 54-45, "the most divisive vote in Federal Reserve history," and has now raised rates for the first time since 2023 ^[3]. Internal friction: Bloomberg's preview expects the September minutes (Oct 8) to show "nearly all" supported at least one more hike this year, while Warsh's proposal to cut the number of FOMC meetings is "drawing attention" ^[2]. [NEW] (single-source framing) the minutes' focus may not be on October action at all ^[4].
• [ESCALATED] Dissent: CEA's Phelan argues the Fed rate hike "wasn't justified" ^[5]. [NEW] The New York Post calls former Chair Powell a "lousy Fed Chair" even after clearing him on the "Palace of Versailles" renovation - the political backdrop the Warsh Fed inherits ^[6].

2. The Long End and the Auction Test

• [ONGOING] September PMI "greatly exceeded expectations" and is fueling overheating concerns; long-end rates are rising "significantly" ^[1]. The same-week cluster - $39B 10-year and $22B 30-year auctions - is set to "test the tolerance limit for high rates" ^[2]. Net: a 10s30s steepening trade on the regime, with auction tails as the falsifier.
• [NEW] Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Hang Seng Tech extended their September correction; the broker note shifts to a "barbell" of growth tech and defensives on tightening liquidity and AI-narrative fatigue ^[1].

3. Cross-Sea Hikes

• [NEW] ECB and BOJ each hiked 25bp in September and "may continue to hike" ^[1]. BOJ Governor Ueda speaks Monday, with words that "will move yen and global carry trades" ^[2]. Only the Nasdaq and a handful of other major US indices posted positive September returns; overseas markets may "face pressure short term" ^[1]. The Fed-ECB-BOJ synchrony is the regime change, not the dot plot.

4. Oil Tail

• [NEW] Trump is warning that Iran is "in trouble," the US core cabinet is meeting densely, and the Houthi-Saudi conflict continues, with the G7 announcing a strategic petroleum reserve release to contain oil prices ^[2]. Geopolitics is now a direct input into the inflation forecast, and a higher-for-longer oil print would push the long end faster than the Fed can.

5. Asia Open and Source Control

• [NEW] Calendar: China September FX reserves (Oct 7), prior end-August balance $3,438.33B; the PBoC has increased gold reserves for 22 consecutive months; US September ISM non-manufacturing index (Oct 5); APLD earnings and FOMC minutes (Oct 8) on the week-ahead docket ^[7][2].
• [ONGOING] Hawaii small businesses urged to complete the Federal Reserve Credit Survey by Nov 13 ^[8].
• Source quality: the "80%+ for three hikes" figure and the long-end repricing line are single-broker ^[1]; the "nearly all" minutes framing is attributed to Bloomberg's preview ^[2]; the Warsh confirmation 54-45 tally and "first hike since 2023" framing come from one secondary outlet ^[3]. Quote the band, not a point.