DAILY LOGBOOK

Daily archive

Browse daily archives by date across 8 signal desks, with each digest keeping its own source trail.

01 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-09

16 digests · 4503 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕October Pause Priced at 17.7% as December Hike Odds Climb to 81.3%, Yet 10-Year Eyes 6% on Term Premium Surge Despite Record 30Y Auction at 5.308% - Front-End Patience vs Long-End Supply

7 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕7.4% Mortgage (3-Year High) Snap-Back Meets Biggest Daily Drop in 3 Months as MOVE Index Flashes Peak-Yield Signal — Musalem and Waller Lean Hawkish, Active Funds vs Crowded CTA Shorts Decide the Next 10bp

9 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕PBoC-Goldman Talks, MOF 'Incremental' Pledge Coincide with +93bp Yuan Close and 11B Yuan Broad-Based ETF Inflow - State-Side Readouts Stay Single-Source

11 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Citi Warns 4% GDP Floor May Force a Q4 Pivot as PBOC Net-Drains 408.5bn Yuan and Local Bonds Hit 8.8tn YTD — Holiday Trips Up 0.6%, Yuan Stance Reaffirmed

6 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕OATs Snap Back to 4.82% as ECB Repo Eyed; Dollar Eyes 4th Weekly Gain on ~3% Cumulative Rise — Japan Carry Exit Reshapes the Sovereign Map

6 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕France's OAT-Bund Spread Clears 150bp as Le Pen Skips Pension Reform — 200bp in Sight, Japan Bankruptcies Hit 13-Year High While ECB Withholds Next Move

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Brent Holds Above $100 as Hormuz Transits Hit Two-Month Low; Trump Rules Out Iran Strikes Pre-Midterms While Supertanker Rates Hit $1.4M/Day Record - Verbal Pause vs Physical Squeeze

8 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Tanker Struck Off Qatar as Iran Scales Hormuz Attacks; Brent Jumps 5% to $105.3 — Pentagon Drafts 3-Day Strike Plan Despite Trump's 'No Attack Before Midterms' Vow

11 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Anthropic's $2T IPO Run Meets a $150B+ AI Debt Wave as Oracle's CDS Hits 261bps and the 10Y Reopens at 5.31% — Compute Capex Crowds Out the Credit Market

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕48% Video Turing Test Meets One-Third Power Gap - Singapore PM Joins the Correction, Anthropic Bans Claude 'Abuse'

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Waller's Pivot Lifts Goldman to a Second 2026 Hike; Brent Holds $100 on $22/Bbl Geopolitical Premium Despite Middle East Supply Recovery - Hawkish Reset vs Soft-Landing Pricing

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕US Fiscal Drift Pushes Long Yields Into Yardeni's 'Danger Zone' — BlackRock's Rieder Stays Long the Front End, JPM Herr Says Bond Buyers Can Be Choosy; MS's Khanduja Lifts Duration to 6.07 Years, Bullish on Treasuries First Time in a Decade

10 source channels · 6 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Reclaims $4,200 on Iran De-Escalation and Yield Pullback; Silver Adds 2% to $60.35 — Yet December Hike Odds at 75.5% Cap the Rebound

10 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold-Silver Split Deepens: Gold Tops $4,160 on Short-Covering While Silver Drops 1.4-2.1% and Ratio Tops 70 — India 3% Import Tax Caps the Rebound

7 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕LME Copper Rebounds Past $14,500 on Centinela Strike and China Return, While Lithium Carbonate Tumbles 5% and Tin Slides to a Three-Month Low — Stock Draws Diverge from Price Action

7 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Tin Crashes 5.27% to $51,447 as LME Sweeps Lower — Centinela Strike Anchors Copper, Anglo Readies Brazil Shutdown Over $500M MMG Sale

6 source channels · 5 min read

02 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-08

16 digests · 5585 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Waller Reaffirms More Hikes with 'Flexibility' on Pace as 10Y Sticks at 5.276% and Dollar Drifts Off 18-Month High - AI Capex Now Cited as Fresh Inflation Driver

11 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed Minutes Back Another 2026 Hike with 'Majority' Support as 10Y Clears 5.35% and $39B Auction Stops at 5.3% — Hawkish Unity vs. Term-Premium Drift

11 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕PBOC Decouples RMB From Misalignment as ~30% of Trade Settles in Yuan, Germany Lifts 2026 GDP to 1.3%, Personal-Culture Service Exports Spike 57.8% - 30Y Flat at 116.860, Dow -300+ Into the Reopen

6 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Golden Week Volume +0.8% Clashes With Per-Capita Spend -2% to -4% as 100B Yuan of New Policy Tools Deploy and a 150B Yuan Capital-Injection Bond Prices Today — A-Shares Reopen Into a ~10x Forward P/E

8 source channels · 7 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕France's 5% OAT Pushes OAT-Bund to 1.4pp as BoE's Greene Rebukes 'Yields Do the Work' Argument - Lane Warns of Core Lift Into 2027

10 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕DXY Nears Year-High on Hormuz Risk as EU Task Force Readies Crude/Diesel Taps; Peru Holds 4.25% with Door Open, Korea Surplus $46.8B, UK RICS -32 - Safe-Haven Bid vs Reserve-Release Hedge

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Iran's Hormuz Closure Claim Lifts Brent Past $103; 7-Tanker Day Marks Two-Month Low as 511k bpd of Gulf Output Shut In — Tehran vs Hassett on an 'Open' Strait

12 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕VLCC Hire Hits $77M on 12 Weekly Hormuz Strikes, Yet US Centcom Counts 20M b/d Still Flowing as Iran Vows to Seal 'Illegal' Lanes — Control Duel Meets Strike-Options Report

9 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Mag 7 Net Exposure at Record ~22% Meets $60B Broadcom–Anthropic Debt Close, CDS Widest Since 2008, US Yields Past 5.3% — Dalio Sees 'Classic Bubble' Bursting, Novogratz Says Buy

7 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕OpenAI and Anthropic Both Adopt Microsoft Execution Containers, Meta Locks $145B and 14GW, While Blackstone Walks After 22 Months and Duke Energy Walls Off Data-Center Rates - Civic Bill Comes Due on the AI Build-Out

8 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Hawkish Fed Hold Drives 10Y/30Y Toward 6% as ING and Danske Reinforce the Dollar Bid, Yet Equities Defy the Spread — Dalio's AI Bubble Warning, Micron's $3,000 Target and BSE Reopening Test the Disconnect

10 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕AI Capex Decouples Nasdaq From 5.3% 10Y as Term Premium Drives the Bond Bear, FOMC Stays Hawkish - China A-Shares Brace for Post-Golden Week Repair

9 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Silver Whipsaws $60.38 to $59.05 While Gold Tags $4,140 Before Shanghai Closes Down 1.69% - Fed Hike Bets, Dollar, Hormuz Pinch

7 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Dollar, Yields and $100 Oil Drag Gold Below $4,100 and Silver 2.5% to $60.05 — Record $31bn Q3 ETF Inflows Can't Hold the Bid

8 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Copper Hits $14,633.50/t on Chile Strike Risk and US Stockpiling as China Returns - Goldman Sees 2026 Lithium Peak vs. NEAR-Saudi Aramco DLE Launch

7 source channels · 5 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Indonesia Floats Nickel-Moratorium as LME Tin Tops $54,279/t and Copper Adds $60 to $14,476, but Zinc -2.7% and COMEX Aluminum -1% over Golden Week - Supply Floor vs Holiday Drag

7 source channels · 3 min read

03 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-07

16 digests · 3355 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Long-End Supply Pushes 10Y Past 5.30% and 30Y to 5.69%, Front-End Cools on 22% October Odds — FOMC Minutes to Map Logan vs Williams Split

6 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Bessent's Verbal Bid Falters at 5.35% on the 10Y as Oil Caps the Rout; Daly, Schmid Lean Hawkish Into FOMC Minutes

11 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Shanghai Holiday Sales Hit ¥76.24B (+9.9%) as France-Germany File EU Trade-Defense Paper, PBOC Stacks 23rd Gold-Buy Month — Demand Hold vs. External Tool Build

9 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Moody's Lifts Four Top Chinese Brokers to A3 as Shenzhen Non-Core Home Sales Jump 200% Over Golden Week — Domestic Tailwinds Meet EU Protectionist Letter, UK EV Tariff Talk

6 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕French 10Y at 4.90% as OAT-Bund Spread Hits 138bp, UK 30Y Jumps 10bp to 6.00%, RBI Lifts for First Time in ~4 Years — European Fiscal Premium Meets Asian Policy Divergence

10 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕France Readies 49.3 Bypass on €43bn Cuts as Risk Premium Bites Euro — BoC Dovest to Two 2027 Hikes, RBA Flags AI-Stock Household Channel

9 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Iran Vows Hormuz Closures and Declares 'Total War'; 9 October Attacks, 12 Crew Injured on On Peace, Captain Pay $100K - Rubio Says Iran Lost the Strait, Qatar Stacks 12 LNG Carriers

9 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Gulf Oil Flows Rebound to ~14 mb/d and ~80% of Prewar, Yet Tanker Attacks and $100,000/Month Captain Wages Keep Brent Near $100 - Crude Recovery vs Shipping Squeeze

8 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Mega-Rounds Print, IPO Window Narrows: Disruptive Targets $10B, SpaceX $40B, Anthropic Files at $2T+ — While 32GW of US Power Slips and 37.3% of 2027 HBM Locks

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕AMD Tops $1.07T on a World Labs Bid as Mistral Ships 1T-Param le Chonk and OpenAI Spreads Compute Across Atlassian, Ironclad and Lean-Proven Math - Capacity Sprint vs Memory Wall and Partisan AI Fight

11 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕BofA Says Bonds Out-Yield Stocks Over a Decade at a 5% 10Y, Gundlach Pegs 6% as the Path of Least Resistance, Marvell Targets Split $350 vs $400 — Fed October Hike Odds Recool

9 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Long-End Yields Sticky at 24-Year Highs While Credit Cracks Widen and AI Megacaps Keep Lifting the S&P — Leuthold Sees 15% Drawdown if Oil, Rates and the Dollar All Climb

5 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Silver Cracks $60 and Gold Loses $4,110 as Dollar and FOMC Minutes Loom - Central Bank Bid Faces Its Test at $4,000

8 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Spot Gold Tops $4,180 and Silver Holds $61 as Fading Hike Bets Ease Dollar and Yields; JPMorgan Says US Silver/PGM Tariff 'Increasingly Less Likely' — December Minutes Decide

7 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Aluminum Drops 1% to $3,112/t as Q4 Japan Premium Falls 35% to $255/t — Centinela Strike Looms, BHP Exits Kambalda, Copper Awaits China Reopen

6 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Codelco Probe Names Ministro Hales and Salvador as LME Copper Settles $14,415/t, Tin Drops $130; Japan Adds 102 Russia-Banned Items - Audit Reset vs Flat Tape

3 source channels · 3 min read

04 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-06

16 digests · 2995 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕30Y Nears 6% as Soft Jobs Trim Hikes, Yet Bessent's 3% GDP and Logan's 50bp Call Frame FOMC Minutes

5 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Long-End Yields Hit 5.343%, a 24-Year High, as October Hike Odds Collapse to ~20% and NY Fed Probes Private-Credit Bank Loans - Growth, Not the Fed, Now Sets the Curve

10 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕HKD Pinches 7.85 on Carry Trade as BofA Ends Four-Year China Underweight, World Bank Lifts East Asia to 4.5%, Day-6 Travel Hits 305.5M - Rates vs. Reopening

7 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕700B RMB Targeted Tools Skip RRR Cut, Yantian Logs 28,684-TEU Single-Vessel Record, Šefcovič Heads to Beijing Oct 8-9 With EUR 400B Goods Deficit - Targeted Easing vs Trade Test

7 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕French 10Y Drops 13bp to 4.73% as Le Pen Softens 2027 Red Lines, Yet BoE's Mann Stays Ahead-of-Curve and UK Spending Review Slips to Autumn 2027 — Relief Rally vs Fiscal Reality

8 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕French 30Y Holds 5.40% as Bank CDS Detaches from Peers by €16,500 — ECB Verbal Defense First, Spain Calls Snap Vote, EUR/USD Cut to 1.135

7 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕VLCCs Reclaim Hormuz at 10.3 mb/d (76% of Pre-War) as Product Tankers Vanish — Diesel Drops to 11% of Strait Cargoes, UKMTO Logs Four Warnings in Four Hours, $25K Round-Trip Bounty

7 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Hormuz Reasserts: Eleven Tankers Hit in a Week, Engine Room Ablaze; Kuwait at 75% Pre-War Output, Shipping Costs Spike 3,900% — But Bab el-Mandeb Splits, Not Closes

6 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Nvidia Back to Record as $60B AI Syndication and $8.2T Asia GPU Race Hit Tape While 22 Hinton-Led Scholars Warn of 5-Week 'Intelligence Explosion' - Capex vs Safety Fracture

12 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕AI Capex In, AI Credit Cracks Open: OpenAI's $30B Round and a $60B Broadcom-Anthropic Deal Sit Beside an 11% Volta Loan and a 98.5¢ CleanSpark Bond as Hinton Warns of a Five-Week Intelligence Explosion

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Goldman Holds Diesel Crack Spreads Above $40/bbl Into 2027 and Lifts TSMC Target 28% to TWD 3,300 on AI Demand, While Jefferies Trims Bank Earnings - Supply Premium vs Bank Reset

5 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Real Yields, Not Inflation Fears, Push 30Y Toward 6% as BMO Sees It This Month — Equity Strategists Pivot to Earnings Against the Bond Rout

6 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Spot Gold Slips Below $4110 as 17-Month-High Dollar and 5%+ Yields Reassert; Silver Slides 1% to $60.35, 80.5% October Hold Caps the Relief Bid - 39t CB Buys and ICE London Launch Frame the New Floor

6 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Silver Breaks $62 on Soft September Jobs as October Hike Odds Fade; Gold Crawls to $4,170 While Real Rates, Oil, and Dollar Still Pin the Rebound

8 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Copper Re-Rates Into Q4 on 232 Tariff Watch With LME Stocks Down 1,925t and New Orleans Adding 1,063 Short Tons - Mine-Side Tightness vs Whether US Metal Returns

4 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Escondida Mediation and Fading Hike Bets Bid LME Copper 1.02% to $14,404.55/ton — Five-Day Negotiation Window Frames Strike Risk

3 source channels · 2 min read

05 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-05

15 digests · 2213 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕October Hike Odds Cut to 18% on Soft Payrolls, Yet 10Y Yield Stays Near 2002 Highs and 5Y Mortgage Tops 6% — Front-End Eases, Long-End Sits on a 'Boiling Frog'

7 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Hassett Demands Powell 'Move On' Over Renovation Report, Backs Warsh's September Hike; October Hold Is Base Case - Yet December Hike Bets Linger on Sticky Inflation

5 source channels · 2 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Mortgage Subsidy Kicks In, Golden-Week Property Pockets Light Up; September PPI Heads for 4.5% Year-High while 2% 3-Year CDs Reappear — Demand-Side Cut vs Funding-Cost Pinch

10 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕HK Primary Sales +61.6% m/m on Cheung Sha Wan Sell-Outs, While MOFCOM Calls Holiday Spend "Stable and Orderly" as County Tourism Substitutes for Trade-In, and the Sept 10 SME Payment Crackdown Reshapes Trade Credit

5 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Snap Election, French Fiscal Woes Drag Euro to 16-17 Month Lows; ECB Holds 'Middle Path' as Second Energy Shock Reshapes Q4 Calculus - Fiscal Risk vs Hawkish Hold

9 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕G7's 100mb Release Caps Diesel Near-Term, Yet Europe's Bond Selloff Revives 2011 Contagion Talk — Brazil Vote, Hormuz, Ueda Decide Next

2 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕IRGC Turn-Backs, Four Tanker Strikes Stack in Hormuz — Brent at $102, WTI at $90.74; G-7 Release Meets Saudi Asia Cut as 22.5 mb/d Flows Expose Shipping Bottleneck

9 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Four Tanker Strikes in 72 Hours and Houthi-Hit Aramco Sites Meet Iran's 7-Condition Ultimatum — Brent Opens +$1, G7 Readies 100m-Barrel Release

4 source channels · 3 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Foxconn's 47% Q3 Surge and OpenAI's Agent-First Pivot Meet a 33-170GW US Power Gap and Anthropic Valuation Skepticism - Capex vs Physical and Pricing Ceilings

8 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia's $235B Buyback Buys Time Against OpenAI's 3.6x Latency Chip and a DeepSeek-Huawei Moat Attack, While Trump Taps Jay Clayton as AI Czar and Coxon Heads to Monday's NYC Hearing - Capex Faces the Containment Floor

9 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Breadth Divergence Widens to 12% as 51% of the Russell 3000 Enters a Bear Market and the 10Y Reclaims 5.25% — Wilson Says Bond Volatility Decides Whether the S&P Tests 6,800 or Broadens Higher

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Meta's $628B Off-Balance Sheet Lifts EV 35%, Flips Alphabet to the Pricier Hyperscaler at 9.0x vs 8.3x — Goldman Buys HK AI Name Zhipu 149% Upside as Strategists Pivot to Cross-Asset Hedges, Yields Surge

5 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Whipsaws to $4,180 as October Hike Odds Fade to ~40% and Silver Reclaims $61 — Yields and Dollar Cap the Bid; ETF Flows Decide

5 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Gaps Up to $4,141.05 at the Asia Open, Then Fades to $4,135.16 — Near-$10 Swing as Silver and Gold ETF Holdings Land Without Numbers

1 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Copper Rises for a Second Session as Softer US Jobs Data Eases Fed Tightening Bets — LME Draws 3,750t Yet COMEX Keeps Building, New Orleans Inflows Dominate

3 source channels · 2 min read

06 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-04

12 digests · 1104 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕First 25bp Hike Since 2023 Lifts the Long End, 80%+ Now Price Three More - Warsh Minutes, $61B Auctions and the Iran-Saudi Oil Tail Test the New Regime

4 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕30-Year Touched 5.48% as Hyperscalers Dumped $230B of 20-40Y Paper; Bessent Says 'Global, Not Panic' — Wednesday's Fed Minutes Test December Hike

6 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Golden Week Travel Hits 303.57M Person-Trips, Hainan Duty-Free Climbs 8.85% to ¥358M — A-Share IPO Proceeds Triple to ¥216.3B but One ¥66.6B Deal Carries the Print, Sentiment Stays Sub-38

6 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fourth 62.5bn Yuan Trade-In Tranche Lands Pre-Holiday, Tianjin Layers 500-1,500 Yuan Subsidies and 300+ Events: CITIC Calls a First-Tier Property Bottom — Canal Series Frames the Capex Backdrop

3 source channels · 2 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Chalmers Brands US-Iran War 'Economic Disaster' as French OAT Spread Widens on Fiscal Fears; Bangladesh Readies November LDC Graduation

5 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Iran's $2B Intervention Fails to Hold as Rial Slips Past 2.69M/USD; Brazil Sunday Caps a Week of Mixed Global Bond Sell-Off — Long End vs. EM Defenses

6 source channels · 2 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Tehran Reframes US-Iran Channel Around Hormuz as Tanker Takes Projectile Hit, Iraq Moves 2M-Barrel VLCC for First Time in Decades - Closure Demand vs Operational Workaround

6 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕IRGC Targets 7 Tankers in 5 Days, Iraq Loads 2M Barrels Beyond Hormuz as Third US Carrier and Qatari Proposal Arrive Overnight - Leverage Fades, Routes Bypass

4 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕OpenAI Safety Veteran With 12 Frontier-Model Reports Quits Calling Trial-and-Error 'Broken': Son Issues Rare Caution, White House Summit Yields 'Morally Binding' Pledge — Walkouts vs Binding Rules

11 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Safety Walkout Hits OpenAI as White House Stands Up Superintelligence Task Force; Huawei's Ascend Hits 50% China Share — Anthropic Files for $2T on $4.6B Revenue, $8B Loss, $518B Cloud Tab

9 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕AI Trade Is BofA's 'Last Line of Defense' as 5Y Auctions Print 5.033% — First Since 2007 — and 10Y Hits 5.33%, Yet Hartnett Calls the Long Bond 'Buy Humiliation'

4 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Soaring Treasury Yields Pin Gold Near a Decades-Long Pivot; BofA Sees Continued Inflows While Private Allocation Sits at 0.3% - HKEX Studies RMB Gold Futures

2 source channels · 2 min read

07 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-03

15 digests · 1564 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕29K Payrolls Caps October Hike Odds at 17-21%, Yet 10Y Rebounds Past 5.30% from 5.16% Lows - Long-End Defies Front-End Easing as Term Premium Reasserts

7 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕29k September Payrolls vs 90k Expected Pushes Hike to December (Hold 85-86.2%, TD Shifts to Dec/Mar), Yet 30yr Mortgage Tops 7.57% as Long End Refuses to Follow - Front-End Dovish vs Term-Premium Stubbornness

8 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Mortgage Subsidy Pushes Tier-1 Cities Toward 'Payment Below Rent' as Golden September Splits — Local Strength +15.7% y/y vs 44-City New Home -17.8%

7 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Day-2 Cross-Regional Trips Top 300M as August Retail Crawls at +0.4% m/m and Auto Slumps -18.5% — Movement Without Big-Ticket Spending

5 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Hedge Funds Flip Net-Short Yen in Two Weeks Despite BoJ Hike, Trump Warning — Vietnam Q3 GDP Prints 9.95% With CPI Re-Accelerating to 5.08%

6 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕OAT-Bund Spread Compresses to 140bp From 159bp Peak, yet Eurozone CPI at 3.8% and a Re-Priced December Hike Keep TPI Trigger Test Live — Fiscal Credibility vs Market Stability

8 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Projectile Hits Kuwait-Flagged Tanker in Hormuz, 5 Indians Evacuated to Oman, as Saudi Downs 3 Houthi Missiles and Camp David Weighs Iran - Shipping Risk vs Near-Recovered Supply

4 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Six Tankers Struck in Hormuz in a Week, G7 Pledges Up to 100M-Barrel Diesel-Crude Release, UK Diesel Hits Record £2/Litre, Saudi Readies Multi-Front Houthi Offensive — Strike Cadence vs Supply Response

10 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Anthropic's $2T and Nvidia's $500B Capex Both Hit Reality Checks as Anthropic's Own Report Exposes 4,700 Claude Personas in Chinese Romance Scams - Build vs. Verify

11 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕HBM4 at 3x HBM3E; Micron Pushes Tight Window to 2028; Morgan Stanley Tabs Nvidia as OpenAI Breach and Safety Exit Land Same Day — Compute Ceiling vs. Governance Gap

11 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Soft September Nonfarm Knocks October Fed Hike Off the Table — December Base Case Holds at Huatai and JPMorgan, AI Bond Slump Caps September at $23B, A-share ERP Re-reads Through FX Swaps

6 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕October Pause Case Closes In: TD Defers Hikes to December and March, JPM Calls the Last Bond-Selloff Leg 'Overdone,' and Two Equity Desks Insist the Next Leg Must Be Earned — Fed Path vs Bond Inflection

7 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Malaysia to Scrap 10% Gold Tariff From November; IMF's 'Orderly' Bond Call Meets Gold's Resilience as Two-Way Positioning Caps Conviction

3 source channels · 2 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Payrolls Bid Unwinds as Yields and Dollar Reclaim the Tape — COMEX Gold Settles $4,172.10 (-3.45% W/W), Silver -6.31% W/W, $4,000 Now the Line

4 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Copper Crawls to $14,262.50 on Softer Dollar Yet Slides ~2% Weekly, Aluminum Premium Jumps 10% to $574/T on Canadian-Tariff Risk - Anglo-Teck Held Hostage to China Copper Demands

3 source channels · 3 min read

08 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-02

15 digests · 2912 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Logan Demands '50bps or More' as 10Y Hits 5.34% and 30Y Mortgage Spikes 25bps to 7.28% — Bowman, Jefferson Push Back, October Hike Bets Wash Out

5 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Logan Demands 50bp More as Yields Retreat From 5.342% High; October Hike Odds Collapse to 24% on Jefferson, Bowman — Fed Sends Three-Way Signal

7 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕China Holiday Demand Holds: 100-City New Home +0.17% vs Secondhand -6.94%, HK Retail Beats 5.6% on 329M Trips — Yet US 10Y Tops 5.34% and 30Y Mortgage Spikes 25bps in a 4-Year Long-End Rout

9 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed's Jefferson Trims October Hike Odds to 24% as ISM Price Gauge Jumps to 77.9 — Front-End Eases, Long-End Sells on Reflation

5 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Eurozone CPI Jumps to 3.8% Stoking ECB Hike Bets, French 10Y Hits 4.96% With 150bp Risk Premium as Macron's G7 Diesel Call Drops Brent Below $100 - Inflation Overshoot vs. Energy Diplomacy

6 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Asia Trims Bond Supply to Stem Global Rout as Tokyo CPI Jumps to 2.7% and Eurozone PMI Hits 52-Month High - DXY Above 102, Yen Past 158

6 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Supertanker Ablaze in Hormuz, UKMTO Logs 4 Tanker Hits, Iran Runs ~40 Strikes/Week — US Stacks 3rd Carrier and 2 Patriot Batteries Over Gulf Energy, Yet Crude Returns to Pre-War

5 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Iran's PGSA List Frames Hormuz Tanker Strikes as Enforcement; Brent +5% to $102.98 as Third US Carrier Deploys and Trump Floats Post-Midterm Escalation

5 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕$60B Broadcom-Anthropic Stack Meets Amazon's $8B Nvidia-Chip Sale, While Tesla Trims AI5/AI6 Memory and Toshiba Doubles HDD Output - Compute as Collateral vs Storage Reality

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Anthropic Targets $1.8-2T Pre-Thanksgiving IPO; OpenAI Subpoenaed in California, Probed by FTC, Discloses 100-Org Breach — Listings vs Litigation

7 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕BofA's Hartnett Tells Clients to Add Bonds as USD Tops; CATL HK$947 and Accenture $250 Keep AI Conviction, Yet Nike Cut to $33 Frames the Defensive Cluster

5 source channels · 3 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Goldman Pushes the Hike to December on Cooler CPI; Mortgage Rates Ease to 7.54%, BofA's Sell Gauge 0.3pp From Trigger — Yet Blitz Warns the 10Y Is Marching to 8%

5 source channels · 2 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Spot Gold Slips 1% to $4,135 in Asia Before NY Futures Snap Back Past $4,220; Deutsche Bank Flags 'Buy in Sorrento' as CTA Positioning Hits Multi-Year Lows

5 source channels · 2 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Tags $4,207.80 and Silver $61.35 on Dovish Repricing, Yet HSBC Cuts 2026-27 Forecasts as December Hike and Oil Stay in Play — Dollar and Yields Counter the Bid

2 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Second Fatal Chilean Mine Accident in Nearly Two Weeks Stacks Onto 15-Year-Low 369.5kt August Copper; Sigma Lithium Halts 240kt on Court; LME Zinc Slides to $3,732/t — Supply Perimeter Narrows

1 source channels · 2 min read

09 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-01

16 digests · 3181 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕10-Year Pierces 5.33% to a 2002 High as Soft PCE Fails to Stanch the Rout — Japan in the Frame, Challenger at 2022 Low, Friday's NFP Decides

7 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Soft August PCE Trims October Hike Odds to 38% as Long End Breaks Out: 10Y Touches 5.305%, 30Y at 5.62% — Both 2002 Highs; Kashkari Holds the Hawkish Line

11 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕10Y UST at 5.33%, UK 30Y Pierces 6% as Yen-Carry vs JGB-Repricing Split Dominates the Rout — China Stands Apart with 25bp PSL Cut to 1.5%

7 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Core PCE 3.0% on BEA Reset, Goldman to December, October Hike Odds to ~39% — Yet 2Y Recovers, 6-Month Annualized Climbs to 3.6%, $132.6B Deficit Widens

8 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕US Diesel-Ban Threat Forces EU Reserve Coordination as UK 30Y Tops 6% First Time Since 1998: Asia Splits Between Korea Record and India Capital Flight

7 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Peso Carry Unwind Hits ~6% as Banks Cut Forecasts; Korea Pledges $120B for 8 US Reactors, Colombia Surprises 25bp Hike to 12.25% - Inflation Tests Bond Havens

4 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Three Tankers Hit in Hormuz as Trump's 'Full Control' Claim Meets Reality; Abu Dhabi's $30B Fujairah Play Targets 60% Bypass by 2028 - Japan, Pakistan, India Reroute Around the Strait

4 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕CENTCOM Reroutes 125 Ships Under Bush Carrier as Trump Claims 'Full Control' of Hormuz and a 3-Day Flow Record — Yet 3-4 Tankers Hit, Fuel Shipments Stay Choked, 'War Will End Soon'

5 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Broadcom's $42B Anthropic Bet and Micron's 87% Margins Power a 9% SOXL Surge — Yet a $0.5T Anthropic IPO Gap and an OpenAI-Canada Hack Sour the Tone

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Gemini 4 Argon Re-enters the Race at $2/$10 per Million Tokens but Stays Behind a Cybersecurity Gate; FTC Probe and Anthropic-vs-Nvidia Split Reshape the White House Pledge

8 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Goldman Slides the Hike to December on Cooler Inflation as 93bp Stays Priced and 10Y Maps 5.5-6% - Long-End Refuses the Pivot, Samsung's 100T KRW HBM Year Caps 2027

4 source channels · 3 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Goldman Defers Second Hike to December on 3.0% Core PCE, Yet Long Yields Stay Sticky and the Energy-Rate Link Snaps — Earnings Buffer vs Bond Velocity

8 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Softer Inflation Read Lifts Gold From $4,140 to $4,220+ as Fed Hike Bets Fade; Silver Recovers to $61.01 — SPDR Loses 1.71 Tonnes

4 source channels · 1 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Closes September Down ~7% at $4,189.1, Silver Off ~10% at $60.76 — PCE Print Triggers a $14 Spot Snap but Monthly Drag Is Booked

4 source channels · 1 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕LME Copper and Aluminum Slide to Multi-Week Lows While China Adds ~1.05M Tons LCE at Jiada and an Indian Recycler Patents 99.9% Tin-from-E-Waste - Spot Drag vs Supply Pipeline

5 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕LME Aluminum Hits Two-Month Low at $3,169.50 as Zinc Drops Over 1% to $3,824.5 — Yet Chile's August Copper Output Falls 12.78% y/y: Demand Trades, Supply Ignored

3 source channels · 2 min read

10 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-30

14 digests · 4905 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Williams' 'No Rush' Sends October Hike Odds to ~44-50% From ~70%, Yet 30Y Holds 5.6% and Crowded Shorts Set a Squeeze - PCE at 20:30 Decides

7 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕30Y Crests 5.60% (24-Year High) as Williams' 'No Rush' Cuts October Hike Odds From ~70% to 50% — Barr's Further-Hike Base Case vs Long-End Revolt

9 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕PBOC Stages 1.2T Yuan Buyback as Banks Hit Records and PMI Returns to 50.1, Yet Tonight's PCE Tests 91% December Hike Odds and the Hedge-Fund 7% of Treasuries — China Easing vs US Path

8 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕PBoC Trims PSL 25bp to 1.5% and Rolls First National Mortgage Subsidy; Fed October Hike Odds Slip to 50% on Williams' 'No Rush' — Diesel Spread at Record $100/bbl

6 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕EU's €100bn Iran-War Energy Bill Meets BoE's 'Sharper' AI Correction Warning; Italy 4.1% Flash CPI Stuns vs 3.7%, BoJ Tapers ¥200bn, BIST Slips Toward Bear Market — Q4 Stress Vectors Compound

6 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕OPEC+ Locks November Quotas as France 10Y Touches 4.811% Near 2008 Peak - ECB's Demarco Hints at October Hike, BoE's Taylor Warns of 2022 Parallel

6 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Iran Says It Has US Reply on Hormuz Deal While a VLCC Burns in Transit and Crude Hits 17.5 mb/d (98% Pre-War) — Backchannel vs Fire

5 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Three Tanker Strikes Hold Brent Below $100 as Qatar's Interim Draft Reaches Tehran by Tuesday - Trump Denial vs IRGC '500km Pullback' Collide

6 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕OpenAI Eyes $30B Pre-IPO at $1.4T as Kimi K3 Cracks Codex Billing, Samsung Targets 66% HPC by 2029 - Capital Surge vs. One-Page Safety Pact

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕OpenAI Dots at $500/mo, $30B Raise at $1.4T, $70B ARR as Trump Renames AI 'Super Intelligence' and Picks Industry Over Legislation - Agent Monetization Tests Self-Governance

8 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕30Y Maps to 6% on Productivity; $346B Hyperscaler Debt Stretches Credit, $33B Quarter-End Sell Looms as Real Rates Two-Sigma — Diesel $100/bbl Crack, Takaichi Yen Pivot Decide the Next Leg

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Barclays Maps 6% 30Y as 10Y Crests 5.29% and Mortgage Hits 7.58% — Williams' Late Bid the Sole Relief

5 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕NY Gold Pushes Past $4220 as BOK Returns to Physical Gold After 13 Years — Yet Real Yields at 18-Year High and Silver's Slide to $60.83 Cap the Bid

6 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Rebounds 1.12% to $4,215 From $4,110 Seven-Week Low as Fed Hike Bets Recede; Silver Trails at $61.84 Even as SLV Adds 30.9 Tonnes — Yields Cap the Bounce Into JOLTS, ADP, PCE and NFP

7 source channels · 3 min read