归档日志

1. Fed & Macro

   〔Day Digest〕Cooling Hike Bets Send Dollar to Three-Month Low, 30Y at 5.32% as Fiscal and AI Supply Split the Fed's Leverage

   5 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

2. Fed & Macro

   〔Overnight Brief〕Foreign Selling and War Headlines Push 30Y to 5.29% 2007 High, While Fed Hike Odds Slip to ~1/3 – Long-End Risk vs Front-End Easing

   8 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

3. China Macro

   〔Day Digest〕Rural Retail's 55-Month Lead Widens, State Council Expands Provident Fund, Retail Stocks Limit-Up - Yet Sichuan Property Falls 7.5%

   6 条来源 · 约 5 分钟

4. China Macro

   〔Overnight Brief〕Old-New Divergence Widens: July IP Slows to 4.5%, YTD Investment Drop Deepens to 6.7% and Tier-1 Housing Outperforms – State Council Targets Annual Goals via Future Industries

   7 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

5. Strait of Hormuz

   〔Day Digest〕MOU Expiry Without Extension Keeps Hormuz Shut, Crossings in Single Digits vs 110/Day, Brent at $91.04 – Diesel Crunch and $200-500M Spill Cleanup Offset Rerouting

   9 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

6. Strait of Hormuz

   〔Overnight Brief〕Hormuz Truce Expiry Turns Military: Trump Threatens to Bomb Oman, Iran Seizes UAE-Linked Tanker, WTI Breaks $84 as Pentagon Doubts Its Own Plans – Crossings Fall

   9 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

7. AI Industry

   〔Day Digest〕AI Off-Balance-Sheet Pledges Hit ~$3T, 5x Annual Capex, as Hong Kong AI Stocks Crash 16% - 'New Bond King' Flags Top

   7 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

8. AI Industry

   〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia Bankrolls 8GW Ohio AI Factory With $1.5B SB Energy Stake, Anthropic Run Rate Tops $65B – OpenAI’s Exec Exodus and a Copyright Suit Test the Rally Ahead of Nvidia Earnings

   10 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

9. Research Notes

   〔Day Digest〕Bond Markets Diverge: US 10Y at 4.73% Near Vigilante Zone, China 10Y at 1.69% - BofA Survey Flags Disorderly Rise as #2 Tail Risk, Fed September Odds Slide

   7 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

10. Research Notes

    〔Overnight Brief〕Goldman Says September Hike "Very Unlikely" While Wells Fargo Still Sees 25bp This Year, Long-End Yields "Drip Higher" into Jackson Hole — $31T Arbitrage Trade Opens

    8 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

11. Precious Metals

    〔Day Digest〕Dovish Repricing Lifts Gold Past $4,400 [9][20], Then Long Yields Drag Spot Below $4,390 [5][19]; Silver Cracks $65 to $64.91 [2][3] — FOMC in Focus [1]

    9 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

12. Precious Metals

    〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Tops $4,420 as Dollar Slide Fades Fed-Hike Bets, Silver Up 2.07% — Empire State 20.6 Surprise Pulls Spot Below $4,380

    6 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

13. Industrial Metals

    〔Day Digest〕LME Copper Spread Spikes to $110 — 2021 High — as BHP's Copper Revenue Overtakes Iron Ore for the First Time, While LME Stocks Build 15,725t and Aluminum Drops 1% to $3,226.5

    7 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

14. Industrial Metals

    〔Overnight Brief〕Lepidolite Restart Looms Over a Soft Overnight Tape: Shanghai Tin -1.47%, LME Tin -$424 to $55,770, CATL's Yichun Scale Cut ~30% — Codelco Reshuffle Complicates Supply Calculus

    4 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

1. Fed & Macro

   〔Day Digest〕Fed-Hike Bets Fade to Sub-30% After Retail-Sales Slump, Dollar Hits 3-Month Low — But 20Y Auction at 5.27% and BOJ 80% Odds Loom

   5 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

2. Fed & Macro

   〔Overnight Brief〕September Hike Odds Plunge to 25% as Fed Minutes Set to Expose Three Dissents; 20-Year Auction and Global Rate Climb Keep Bonds on Edge — Betting Markets vs. a Patient Fed

   4 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

3. China Macro

   〔Day Digest〕July Activity Data Miss Across the Board: IP +4.5%, Retail +0.6%, FAI -6.7% as Unemployment Ticks to 5.2% – 'Stored But Not Released' Fiscal Funds Are the Quarter-End Test

   12 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

4. China Macro

   〔Overnight Brief〕China July Activity Data, LPR and Fed Minutes Stack the Week as 'Computing-Power Loans' Proliferate and Non-Bank Deposits Fall RMB1.03T YoY - Housing Recovery Splits by City

   6 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

5. Strait of Hormuz

   〔Day Digest〕Shadow Tanker Fleet Keeps Oil Flowing as DOE's 9M b/d vs Trackers' 4M Data Gap Splits Market, Weekend Hormuz Transits Hit Zero

   10 条来源 · 约 5 分钟

6. Strait of Hormuz

   〔Overnight Brief〕Iran-Oman Toll Route Emerges as Hormuz Traffic Plunges to 17% of Pre-Conflict – Covert Flows Cap Prices, but Trump's Claim and Bab el-Mandeb Threat Loom

   5 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

7. AI Industry

   〔Day Digest〕Indium Phosphide +92% YTD, Liquid Cooling to 53%, and Guangzhou's Compute-Scheduling Draft Put Supply Ahead of Models - But Morgan Stanley Warns Token Deflation Splits Cloud and Tenants

   9 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

8. AI Industry

   〔Overnight Brief〕AI Financing Hits a $500B 'Dark GPU' Warning: Anthropic's 14-Fold Revenue, Nvidia's Bundled-GPU Plan, and China's Token Share Surge — Front-End Optimism vs. White-House Oversupply Risk

   7 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

9. Research Notes

   〔Day Digest〕Goldman Calls Sept Hike 'Extremely Unlikely' as Chip Pricing Spreads Upstream and AWS Plots $1T Path on $8/Watt Monetization - Midterm Window Warns of 7%+ Pullback

   8 条来源 · 约 6 分钟

10. Research Notes

    〔Overnight Brief〕Dollar Holds ~100 as Soft US Data vs Fed Hawks Set Up September Pivot, While Broadcom's $370B AI Guarantee Sparks 20% Rout - Yen Intervention Sixth Round Fails to Stick

    6 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

11. Precious Metals

    〔Day Digest〕Gold Retakes $4,410 as Fed-Hike Bets Fade and Dollar Softens; Silver Jumps 2.65% on SGE — 'Long Gold Best Solution' vs 'Don't Blindly Chase' Warning

    8 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

12. Precious Metals

    〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Reverses From $4,509 to $4,365 as Record 5.216% 30-Year Auction Sparks 'Passive Tightening' - Silver Lightens Up as Bullish Funds Pile In

    2 条来源 · 约 1 分钟

13. Industrial Metals

    〔Day Digest〕Cash Copper Spread Blows Past $500/T as Miners' Output Drops 3.9% and Korea Pays $1B for Supply - Lithium Creeps Up, SDIC Unit Liquidated

    5 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

1. Fed & Macro

   〔Day Digest〕Rate-Hike Fears Fade as September Odds Drop to 27%, But 30-Year Auction at 25-Year High Keeps Debt Overhang in Play - FOMC Minutes Next

   3 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

2. Fed & Macro

   〔Overnight Brief〕Warsh Phrase-Watching and Rieder's Long-End Real-Rate Warning Split the Market — Deficits, Heavy Issuance and AI Financing Take Center Stage

   2 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

3. China Macro

   〔Day Digest〕China Reschedules July Data to Monday 3 PM, Breaking with Practice; Hunan Rail Exports Jump 117.5% to Record, NDRC Sets 17% CO2 Cut – Data Twist vs Green Mandate

   5 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

4. China Macro

   〔Overnight Brief〕Credit Turns Negative at -¥589.6B, Capacity Use Hits 73.0% Series Low — Liquidity Bypasses Wages While SASAC Chief Pushes PetroChina to 'Hold the Energy Bowl'

   4 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

5. Strait of Hormuz

   〔Day Digest〕Iran-Oman Route Map Does Not Reopen Hormuz; Gasoline Imports Halt as Output Trails 137M L/Day Demand by 7M - Mocha Port Down After 86 Projectiles vs US 'Claim' Rhetoric

   7 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

6. Strait of Hormuz

   〔Overnight Brief〕Iran-Oman Hormuz Shipping-Route Pact vs. Third UAE Tanker Strike in a Week — Tanker Traffic Halts, Reopening Tied to End of US Blockade

   7 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

7. AI Industry

   〔Day Digest〕OpenAI's $852B Valuation Stumbles as IPO Slips and Executives Exit, While China's Ulanqab Projects Surge 147% and Guangdong Launches 'Token Loans' – Anthropic's $7B Decart Deal Tests the Buildout

   8 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

8. AI Industry

   〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia's $500bn Blitz Buys $3bn SB Energy and $100bn OpenAI Guarantee, While $70bn Shadow Credit and Anthropic's $11.5bn Revenue Split AI Bets

   7 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

9. Research Notes

   〔Day Digest〕Breadth Widens as Crowding Digests: 80% of All-A Stocks Clear 30-Day Line, Top-5% Turnover Share Slips to 48.9% - The Battle Moves From Beta to Alpha

   6 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

10. Precious Metals

    〔Overnight Brief〕Gold's 8.36% Rebound Carries Prices Above 900 Yuan/g, but Head-and-Shoulders Warning and Missing Catalyst Cap the Rally — Wall Street and Retail Both Bullish

    2 条来源 · 约 1 分钟

1. Fed & Macro

   〔Day Digest〕Hike Odds Collapse to ~25-32% on Soft CPI, Retail Sales and Payrolls While 30Y Auction at 25-Year High and Brent Near $90 Split the Tape - Warsh's Words Decide

   4 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

2. Fed & Macro

   〔Overnight Brief〕Weak US Data Wipes Out Fed Hike Bets, Dollar Heads for Sixth Drop in Seven Weeks — 30Y Auction Prices at 2001 Highs, RMP Paused [1][10][25]

   9 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

3. China Macro

   〔Day Digest〕July Credit Tilts to Direct Financing: M2 (7.7%) Outruns Loan Growth (5.1%) and NEV Sales Clear 60%, Yet Goods Retail Stays Soft - Financial Substitution vs Consumption Bifurcation

   8 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

4. China Macro

   〔Overnight Brief〕Fed Pauses RMP Purchases Unexpectedly, Wall Street Extends Hiatus to October; China's Q2 NIM Turns Up to 1.41% While July Loans Fall 340B yuan - Two-Speed Policy

   8 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

5. Strait of Hormuz

   〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Tanker Attack Meets 2.0 mb/d Iraqi Export Rebound; Iran Claims Undisputed Strait Control – August 17 MOU Deadline Tests Whether Talks Are Real

   7 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

6. Strait of Hormuz

   〔Overnight Brief〕Hormuz on the Brink: ADNOC Tanker Attacked, Trump Vows 'US Territory' as Iran Claims Sole Control of Strait — Diesel Tops $5

   8 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

7. AI Industry

   〔Day Digest〕Anthropic's $11.5B Beat Speeds AI Profit Clock by Two Years, but Nvidia's $500B Guarantee Machine Hands the Market a Credit Repricing - Two Trades Split the Tape

   11 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

8. AI Industry

   〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia's $21B SpaceX Stake vs Broadcom's 5.9% Plunge: AI Capex Re-Priced from Demand to Credit Risk - Anthropic's 13x Revenue Surge Holds the Line

   8 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

9. Research Notes

   〔Day Digest〕End-July Bottom Declared by Haitong's Zhang Yidong: Strategic Bull from August, But No Chasing; CITIC Sees Ultra-Long Crowding as 30Y-10Y Compresses to 47bp - AI Survey Adds to Software Caution

   4 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

10. Research Notes

    〔Overnight Brief〕September Hike Odds Halve to ~35% as PPI Cools and StanChart Says No 2026 Hikes — Goldman Lifts FTSE/Stoxx Targets While Bonds Stay Hard to Trade

    6 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

11. Precious Metals

    〔Day Digest〕Gold Holds $4,400 as Rate-Hike Bets Fade; Options Show 43XX Defense vs 44XX Caps – 'Big Rally' Maybe November

    3 条来源 · 约 1 分钟

12. Precious Metals

    〔Overnight Brief〕Rate-Hike Odds Fade After U.S. Data Miss Lifts Gold to $4,395 and Silver to $65.38 – Oil Risk and FOMC Minutes Ahead

    6 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

13. Industrial Metals

    〔Overnight Brief〕Copper Backwardation Heads for Highest Since 2021 as Codelco Shutdown Reports Emerge; LME Holds $14,160, Policy Overhang Grows

    8 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

1. Fed & Macro

   〔Day Digest〕Cooling July PPI Pushes the Hike Window to December While the 30-Year Auction Clears at 5.216% – Front-End Relief Collides With Long-End Supply

   9 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

2. Fed & Macro

   〔Overnight Brief〕Fed Pauses Reserve Management Purchases; 30-Year Auction Yield Hits 2001 High

   7 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

3. China Macro

   〔Day Digest〕Corporate Loan Rates Slip Below 3% While July RMB Loans Fall ¥340B – PBOC's ¥1.35T Liquidity Push Sends 10Y to 1.68% Low

   9 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

4. China Macro

   〔Overnight Brief〕Anti-Involution Moves to Institutional Phase, PBOC Injects ¥1 Trillion; Mortgage Rates Enter '2% Range' Debate

   10 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

5. Strait of Hormuz

   〔Day Digest〕ADNOC Tankers Struck in Hormuz as Diesel Cracks Top $97, Asian Refiners Pay $10-14 Premiums for US Crude - Washington Denies Strike Push, Readies 'Unprecedented' Economic Isolation

   12 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

6. Strait of Hormuz

   〔Overnight Brief〕Iran Declares Hormuz Closed as US Vows Unprecedented Blockade; Drone Losses and Tanker Attacks Keep Oil Markets on Edge

   8 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

7. AI Industry

   〔Day Digest〕OpenAI Hits $40B Run Rate, GLM-5.3 Bets on Post-Training Scaling, While a Price War Breaks Out: Google Discounts Flash 50%, 'Cost-Per-Task' Replaces Token Math

   9 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

8. AI Industry

   〔Overnight Brief〕OpenAI Passes $40B Run Rate as Anthropic Courts IPO Investors; Google Ships Gemini 3.7 Flash, SanDisk Sets Aggressive Targets

   10 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

9. Research Notes

   〔Day Digest〕SanDisk's 80% Margin Guide Draws $2,250 JPMorgan Target and $2,200 Goldman, While TD's RMP Pause Query Stirs QT Debate - AI Storage vs Fed Uncertainty

   10 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

10. Research Notes

    〔Overnight Brief〕Fed Pause Backed, Yen Intervention Capacity, and Bond Rally on PPI

    7 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

11. Precious Metals

    〔Day Digest〕Profit-Taking Pulls Gold to $4,385.90 as Fed-Hike Odds Slide to 32%; Silver Drops 2% to $63.68 — Bank of Korea Enters Gold for First Time in 13 Years

    6 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

12. Precious Metals

    〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Slips Below $4,350 as Fed and Mideast Factors Weigh; Silver ETF Extends Inflows

    6 条来源 · 约 1 分钟

13. Industrial Metals

    〔Day Digest〕Lithium Leads: Carbonate Futures +2%, Spot Midpoint 151,600 Yuan/T (+2,250) on Salt-Lake Push, While Aluminum -13.6kt vs Zinc +3.1kt, Lead +4.6kt Split the SHFE Complex

    3 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

14. Industrial Metals

    〔Overnight Brief〕Overnight Brief: Industrial Metals — Aluminum Slips, Nickel Quota Signals, Chile/India Policy Moves

    6 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

1. Fed & Macro

   〔Day Digest〕Benign Inflation Curbs Fed Rate-Hike Bets, but Treasury Market Sends Cautionary Signal

   8 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

2. Fed & Macro

   〔Overnight Brief〕July CPI Cools Fed Hike Bets; 10-Year Auction Yield Hits 2007 High; AI Stocks Diverge

   7 条来源 · 约 1 分钟

3. China Macro

   〔Day Digest〕Guangdong-Alibaba Pact, PBOC Liquidity Push, and AI-Led Market Rebound: China Macro Day Digest

   9 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

4. China Macro

   〔Overnight Brief〕PBOC Debuts Mid-Month Overnight Repo and Signals Incremental Policy as China Bonds Rally

   8 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

5. Strait of Hormuz

   〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Standoff: Competing Control Claims, $600M Shipping Hit, and Iran's 'Attrition' Play

   12 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

6. Strait of Hormuz

   〔Overnight Brief〕Trump Declares 'Total Control' Over Hormuz as Iran Insists Strait Still Closed; Oil Holds Gains

   11 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

7. AI Industry

   〔Day Digest〕Anthropic Eyes Record $2T IPO Valuation; China Mobile Unveils Token Plans; IBM-OpenAI Enterprise AI Pact

   9 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

8. AI Industry

   〔Overnight Brief〕AI Infrastructure Shifts: CoreWeave Warns on Nvidia Dependence, Cerebras Cloud Surges, and DeepSeek V4 Pro Debuts

   7 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

9. Research Notes

   〔Day Digest〕Barclays Lifts CoreWeave & Cisco Targets; Citadel's 10 Bullish Reasons; China Research Backs Rail, Grid, 3D Printing

   6 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

10. Research Notes

    〔Overnight Brief〕Overnight Brief: Benign CPI Keeps Fed on Hold as AI Capex Reshapes the Inflation Debate

    9 条来源 · 约 4 分钟

11. Precious Metals

    〔Day Digest〕Gold Slips from Two-Month Peak as Flat PPI Masks Firm Core; UBS Sees $5,000 by H1 2027

    5 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

12. Precious Metals

    〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Holds Near $4,400 as July CPI Matches Forecasts; CME Moves to Extend 24/7 Trading to Silver

    4 条来源 · 约 1 分钟

13. Industrial Metals

    〔Day Digest〕Copper Demand Seen 50% Higher by 2040; Aluminum Slips on Supply Relief, Lithium Cuts Emerge

    7 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

14. Industrial Metals

    〔Overnight Brief〕Overnight Metals: Codelco Weighs El Teniente Expansion, Australia Backs Tomago, Indonesia Courts India in Nickel

    6 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

1. Fed & Macro

   〔Day Digest〕CPI Data Set to Determine Fed's September Move as Markets Brace

   6 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

2. China Macro

   〔Day Digest〕China's Central Bank Reaffirms Moderately Loose Policy; US CPI in Focus

   7 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

3. Strait of Hormuz

   〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Standoff Persists: Shipping at Weekly Low, Tanker Rates Surge 20-Fold

   5 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

4. AI Industry

   〔Day Digest〕AI Capital Spending Surges: Tencent, Samsung, and SpaceX Pour Billions into Compute

   8 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

5. Research Notes

   〔Day Digest〕Goldilocks Meets Dual Mandate: In-Line CPI, Weak Payrolls and the Yen's Katsu Curry Signal

   4 条来源 · 约 3 分钟

6. Precious Metals

   〔Day Digest〕Silver Surges Past $66, Gold Spikes Above $4,438 as CPI Keeps Fed in Play

   4 条来源 · 约 2 分钟

7. Industrial Metals

   〔Day Digest〕Lithium Build-Out Meets Alumina Supply Shock and PNG Copper Restart; Solid-State Capital Shifts Upstream

   4 条来源 · 约 1 分钟

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