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hormuz
Strait of Hormuz
Tracks the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf and Red Sea shipping lanes: tanker transits, seizures and attacks, Iran–US–Gulf tensions, war-risk insurance and rerouting costs, and the pass-through to crude and energy prices.
DAILY DIGESTS
Daily digests
20 digests
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〔Day Digest〕Brent Holds Above $100 as Hormuz Transits Hit Two-Month Low; Trump Rules Out Iran Strikes Pre-Midterms While Supertanker Rates Hit $1.4M/Day Record - Verbal Pause vs Physical Squeeze
Brent held above $100/bbl on Oct. 9 as Hormuz tanker transits fell to a two-month low amid escalating Iran-Houthi attacks, yet the U.S. posture is verbal restraint: President Trump ruled out Iran strikes before the November midterms and the USS Abraham Lincoln returned to San Diego. The split is between Trump's "TACO" rhetoric and a physical squeeze — supertanker day rates hit a record $1.4M, global crude tanker average daily earnings topped $500,000 (about 10x the 2025 average), and Vitol CEO Russell Hardy warned that without Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers Brent could reach $200/bbl. Goldman estimates the embedded geopolitical risk premium at $22/bbl in September, the second-highest on record behind only April 2026, even as Persian Gulf exports (including unreported) match 2025 averages. What decides next: a single major incident on critical infrastructure, a confirmed U.S.-Iran deal, or two consecutive months of normalized reported flows.
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〔Overnight Brief〕Tanker Struck Off Qatar as Iran Scales Hormuz Attacks; Brent Jumps 5% to $105.3 — Pentagon Drafts 3-Day Strike Plan Despite Trump's 'No Attack Before Midterms' Vow
A projectile strike on the tanker Acers in the Gulf off Qatar with casualties reported, plus a 'violent explosion' on the southern Strait of Hormuz route and a UK maritime-agency-flagged tanker hit in the Strait itself, pushed Brent crude up 5% to $105.3 a barrel on Thursday — yet President Trump publicly called US-Iran talks 'productive' and ruled out a strike before the November 3 midterms. Behind that line, the New York Times reports the Pentagon is preparing a fresh three-day strike plan against Iran that the President has repeatedly declined to approve. The IRGC Navy warned of 'decisive' responses to unauthorized transit, Iran has halted loading and unloading under the US blockade, and roughly 20 million barrels of Iranian crude sit stranded on ships. US CENTCOM says it has shepherded 1.25 billion barrels of Gulf crude through Hormuz while Iran ships zero.
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〔Day Digest〕Iran's Hormuz Closure Claim Lifts Brent Past $103; 7-Tanker Day Marks Two-Month Low as 511k bpd of Gulf Output Shut In — Tehran vs Hassett on an 'Open' Strait
Iran's IRGC advisor Nagdi declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and 'illegal' lanes blocked until Iranian demands are met, but White House NEC Director Hassett countered that the US Navy has 'opened' the strait and crude is flowing normally. Physical data sits between the two: Kpler recorded only 7 commodity tankers transiting on Tuesday — the lowest since July 23 — with crude flows down 27% from the wartime peak to 10.1 mb/d, 74% of pre-war. The supply stack is triple-layered: a multiple-projectile strike on a tanker near Qatar, Hurricane Isaias shutting ~511,619 bpd (25.08%) of Gulf of Mexico crude, and an unexpected 3.18M-barrel EIA draw. Brent pushed through $102 then $103 intraday, WTI at one point up 3% to $91.02; European gas cleared €80/MWh on LNG risk. Saudi Arabia is in talks to formalize Hormuz shuttle loadings for next-year contracts; VLCC day-rates hit a record ~$1.4M, up ~540% from pre-war. What decides next: a Houthi-Saudi ceasefire, a Hassett-corroborated reopening, or the Pentagon's strike-options timeline ahead of the midterm elections.
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〔Overnight Brief〕VLCC Hire Hits $77M on 12 Weekly Hormuz Strikes, Yet US Centcom Counts 20M b/d Still Flowing as Iran Vows to Seal 'Illegal' Lanes — Control Duel Meets Strike-Options Report
Brent pierced $102/bbl after an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps adviser declared Hormuz "closed" and threatened to seal "illegal" lanes, with 12 tanker attacks recorded in a week — the highest since the Iran war began. Supertanker hire for US-Asia routes spiked to $77M, against a 2025 average of $9.2M, adding ~$38.5/bbl in transport cost on a 2M-bbl cargo. Yet US Central Command countered that 20M b/d is still transiting the strait and that the US and regional partners "clearly control" it, with Bloomberg's Julian Lee putting throughput at nearly 80% of pre-war levels. The contradictions are the story: an Atlantic report says the White House has asked the Pentagon for Iran strike options deployable before the midterms, while the Brent-WTI spread stretched past $12/bbl, Iraq devalued the dinar 14.5%, and Baghdad began routing crude through Syria via Baniyas to bypass the strait. The 11 Indian seafarers injured in a commercial-tanker strike underline the kinetic risk. What decides next: whether Hormuz traffic holds above 80% through the next 24-48 hours.
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〔Day Digest〕Iran Vows Hormuz Closures and Declares 'Total War'; 9 October Attacks, 12 Crew Injured on On Peace, Captain Pay $100K - Rubio Says Iran Lost the Strait, Qatar Stacks 12 LNG Carriers
Iran's IRGC advisor said the 'illegal' lanes in the Strait of Hormuz will be blocked 'soon' and weapons range can be extended to battlefield needs, while President Pezeshkian declared the country in a 'total war' state and the military threatened preemptive strikes. Yet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio countered that Iran has lost control of Hormuz and that oil flows are 'almost as much as pre-war', Qatar amassed 12 empty LNG carriers (~1.1 million tons, ~2% of the global fleet) preparing to resume exports, and Vitol's chief said tanker shuttles are preventing a $200/bbl scenario. The contradiction is visible in the data: 9 attacks this month per the UK Maritime Trade Operations office — half of September's total — with 12 crew injured aboard the tanker On Peace and tanker captain pay hitting $100,000/month. The US has logged 81 aircraft losses since February 28, including 12 F-15E fighters; the falsifiable test is whether Iran's rhetoric translates into actual lane closures or stays at the attack-cadence level.
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〔Overnight Brief〕Gulf Oil Flows Rebound to ~14 mb/d and ~80% of Prewar, Yet Tanker Attacks and $100,000/Month Captain Wages Keep Brent Near $100 - Crude Recovery vs Shipping Squeeze
Gulf crude exports have rebounded - Vitol CEO Russell Hardy put crude and product outflows at about 14 million barrels per day on alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers, and Shell's CEO put Middle East flows at roughly 80% of pre-conflict levels - yet Brent is back around $100 a barrel after three straight daily declines. The contradiction is structural: oil is moving, but the ships moving it are scarce, attacked, and priced for war risk. Ship captains now earn $100,000 a month to transit Hormuz, 12 sailors were hurt in an LR2 attack, Oman evacuated 10 after another strike, and US Energy Secretary Chris Wright called the strait a conflict zone with a $200-a-barrel tail risk if flows break. What decides next is whether Qatar-brokered Iran-US mediation lowers the attack tempo, and whether the LR2 incident triggers a wider convoy or insurance response.
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〔Day Digest〕VLCCs Reclaim Hormuz at 10.3 mb/d (76% of Pre-War) as Product Tankers Vanish — Diesel Drops to 11% of Strait Cargoes, UKMTO Logs Four Warnings in Four Hours, $25K Round-Trip Bounty
Gulf crude exports are recovering toward or past pre-war levels, with Kpler tracking 10.3 mb/d over the past seven days — 76% of the pre-war Hormuz baseline — and CBA via WSJ reporting Brent holding above $100. Yet refined product flows tell the opposite story: diesel and gasoline cargoes have collapsed to 1.3 mb/d, or just 11% of Hormuz traffic, versus more than 20% before the war. Tanker attacks have hit a wartime high — UKMTO issued four attack warnings in four hours on Monday, five incidents were logged that day, and a Greek LNG carrier was struck. Crews are being offered $25,000 per Hormuz round trip. US Navy escorts have prioritized VLCCs (~2 million barrels of crude each) over product tankers, while the US blockade leaves roughly 50 Iranian tankers stranded, 20 of them near Sri Lanka. Saudi interior ministry has criminalized sharing missile-interception footage, Riyadh heard fresh explosions from Houthi strikes, and Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan have begun joint defense deployments. The diesel squeeze, not crude throughput, is the binding constraint.
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〔Overnight Brief〕Hormuz Reasserts: Eleven Tankers Hit in a Week, Engine Room Ablaze; Kuwait at 75% Pre-War Output, Shipping Costs Spike 3,900% — But Bab el-Mandeb Splits, Not Closes
A projectile struck a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on Oct 5, setting its engine room on fire as the crew fought the blaze, the same day Iran's IRGC turned back another vessel with an explicit "turn back or be targeted" warning. Eleven ships have been hit in the past week per TradeWinds, the cost to charter a tanker has spiked 3,900%, and Kuwait is producing only 75% of its pre-war barrel count. Yet the geography is fragmenting rather than closing: Yemeni government forces say they retook the Red Sea port of Mocha, the "Mecca Defense Alliance" activated collective defense, and Iraq is hiring extra hulls to lock in its own Hormuz transits. The macro read, per the New York Times, is that "Geography Is Back With a Vengeance". The falsifiable test is whether Saudi alternative pipelines and the contested Bab el-Mandeb can absorb the barrels Hormuz is squeezing out.
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〔Day Digest〕IRGC Turn-Backs, Four Tanker Strikes Stack in Hormuz — Brent at $102, WTI at $90.74; G-7 Release Meets Saudi Asia Cut as 22.5 mb/d Flows Expose Shipping Bottleneck
Iran's Revolutionary Guard ordered an inbound tanker to turn around 11 nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman, on October 4, and the vessel complied, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Office reported. At least four tankers, including a Dynacom newbuild, were attacked in Hormuz, yet Brent held at $102.305/bbl (+0.05%) and WTI slipped to $90.742 (-0.40%) in early Asian trade as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline resumed normal flows. The paradox: Kpler data shows Middle East crude exports hit 19.5-22.5 mb/d on four days in late September, with an 18.5 mb/d seven-day moving average by October 1 — above the 18 mb/d pre-war baseline. Shipping has become the binding constraint: Energy Aspects' Amrita Sen pegs the Hormuz-to-Asia freight cost at ~$30/bbl, the driver of Saudi Aramco's Asia price cut. The week's six triggers — Trump's decision, Iran's Qatar-channeled response, G-7 release execution, Houthi posture, tanker attacks, and domestic Iranian pressure — will determine which regime Brent settles in.
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〔Overnight Brief〕Four Tanker Strikes in 72 Hours and Houthi-Hit Aramco Sites Meet Iran's 7-Condition Ultimatum — Brent Opens +$1, G7 Readies 100m-Barrel Release
UKMTO logged four tanker strikes between Oct 1-4, all on the Omani side of the strait, each hit by an unidentified projectile, while Houthi forces claim ballistic-missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco sites in Riyadh and Kurais, with fires reported. Brent opened Monday up $1/bbl on the Houthi-strike report. Yet Iran Parliament Speaker Kalibaf says Hormuz stays closed until the US meets seven conditions, and Foreign Minister Araghchi floated a "7-day plan" — reopen within seven days if the US accepts. The counter-shock is live: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says supply through Hormuz continues to increase, the G7 is preparing a 100-million-barrel crude-and-diesel release, and Iraq is rerouting tankers around the strait. What decides next: whether Iran publicly details the seven conditions, and whether the G7 release is sized to offset the Houthi pressure on Saudi energy infrastructure.
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〔Day Digest〕Tehran Reframes US-Iran Channel Around Hormuz as Tanker Takes Projectile Hit, Iraq Moves 2M-Barrel VLCC for First Time in Decades - Closure Demand vs Operational Workaround
Tehran pulled the diplomatic lens off the nuclear file and onto the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday: Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghae said US proposals "basically mirror previous positions" and Iran's "current focus is the Hormuz Strait issue," while Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Kalibaf added the waterway will not reopen until Iran's conditions are met. Fars News cited an Iranian military spokesman saying Tehran will extend its missile range after the war with the US. Yet a tanker reported being hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz - UKMTO flagged engine-room damage, crew safe, no environmental impact at filing - and the US expelled two members of Iran's UN General Assembly delegation on Oct 3. On the workaround side, Iraq's state tanker firm moved 2 million barrels on a VLCC past Hormuz, the first such transit in decades, while Gulf News flags a broader plunge in shipping traffic. The falsifying test: whether Iran's diplomatic escalation holds while physical attacks continue and alternative routings prove durable.
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〔Overnight Brief〕IRGC Targets 7 Tankers in 5 Days, Iraq Loads 2M Barrels Beyond Hormuz as Third US Carrier and Qatari Proposal Arrive Overnight - Leverage Fades, Routes Bypass
Iraq loaded 2 million barrels on a VLCC beyond the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in decades, giving state marketer SOMO sales flexibility. Yet Iran is not standing down - the IRGC took action against at least 7 "violating" tankers over five days, more than one per day, even as Washington insists the strait "remains open and under US control". Tankers keep getting hit: a Kuwait-flagged VLCC and a Panama-flagged vessel caught fire after projectile strikes, with 5 Indian crew rescued. On Qeshm Island, Iranian air defense activated twice in one evening, with a drone shot down and a missile booster recovered. A third US aircraft carrier is now in the region, with sanctions and a naval blockade yet to extract major concessions. Quietly, in parallel: Iran is reviewing a new US proposal delivered via Qatar, built on the Islamabad framework, with nuclear talks and Hormuz route talks via Oman both advancing. Decisive next steps: confirmation of the Houthi-claimed strike on Saudi Aramco in Riyadh and Tehran's response to the Qatari channel.
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〔Day Digest〕Projectile Hits Kuwait-Flagged Tanker in Hormuz, 5 Indians Evacuated to Oman, as Saudi Downs 3 Houthi Missiles and Camp David Weighs Iran - Shipping Risk vs Near-Recovered Supply
A Kuwait-flagged tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on October 3, with five Indian nationals rescued and evacuated to Oman. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency reported the attack. The incident came as Saudi-led forces intercepted three Houthi ballistic missiles targeting Khamis Mushait, while Houthi missile debris wounded one and damaged a building and vehicles in Asir province. A separate Houthi projectile struck a school in Najran, causing property damage. In Washington, President Trump's core cabinet - including Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth - met at Camp David for hours to discuss next steps on Iran and the Saudi-Houthi conflict. Trump said the war with Iran will "end soon" and that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. Yet BBC reports Middle East oil supply has nearly returned to pre-Iran war levels, and Pakistan's foreign minister said transit through Hormuz should carry no fees. The falsifiable test: whether the tanker strike disrupts shipping flows or remains contained.
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〔Overnight Brief〕Six Tankers Struck in Hormuz in a Week, G7 Pledges Up to 100M-Barrel Diesel-Crude Release, UK Diesel Hits Record £2/Litre, Saudi Readies Multi-Front Houthi Offensive — Strike Cadence vs Supply Response
UKMTO reported a crude tanker's port side hit by an unknown projectile departing the Strait of Hormuz, the sixth vessel struck in a week. Yet the G7 has decided to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude over four months, and Saudi Arabia has pushed its key cross-country pipeline to over 80% capacity with west-coast exports at wartime highs. The pivot: White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett claims the Navy has "opened" Hormuz and oil is flowing, and that only Iranian crude is not transiting — a claim that sits awkwardly against the strike tally and a UK diesel price at a record £2/litre, up 40.5% since late February. What decides next: whether Saudi Arabia's planned multi-front offensive against the Houthis launches in coming weeks, and whether the 100M-barrel release lands fast enough to break the diesel squeeze.
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〔Day Digest〕Supertanker Ablaze in Hormuz, UKMTO Logs 4 Tanker Hits, Iran Runs ~40 Strikes/Week — US Stacks 3rd Carrier and 2 Patriot Batteries Over Gulf Energy, Yet Crude Returns to Pre-War
A supertanker was struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz and caught fire, with the crew reported safe. UKMTO logged strikes on 4 tankers, including 3 UAE-owned vessels cited by Iranian sources as breaching 'Hormuz rules' and already on a PGSA list, as Iran runs roughly 40 drone and missile strikes a week on Hormuz shipping. The US is layering defenses: a third carrier strike group and 9,000-10,000 troops head to the Middle East, pushing US personnel above 50,000 by late November, and two Patriot batteries have been newly placed in Saudi Arabia and Qatar to shield oil and gas sites. Yet crude oil exports are shifting back to pre-war levels, and UN-led diplomacy is stalled after Secretary Rubio asked Iran's UN General Assembly delegation to leave the US. Parallel pressure: Houthi drones and missiles hit a Saudi-led coalition facility in Aden before dawn, and Yemeni government airstrikes hit 20 Houthi targets in Taiz over a three-hour window.
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〔Overnight Brief〕Iran's PGSA List Frames Hormuz Tanker Strikes as Enforcement; Brent +5% to $102.98 as Third US Carrier Deploys and Trump Floats Post-Midterm Escalation
A projectile strike on a supertanker in the Strait of Hormuz on October 1 — UKMTO third-party report, crew safe, fire and damage under assessment — became the pretext for Iran's PGSA and the IRGC to label the three UAE-linked vessels struck, Al Ruwais, Sinbad, and Mersin Prosperity, as violators on its updated non-compliance list. Yet the market priced escalation, not ambiguity: Brent jumped 5.05% to $102.984/bbl and WTI rose 3.44% to $93.533/bbl, as the Pentagon dispatched a third carrier strike group and 9,000–10,000 additional troops — the first triple-CSG posture since April. Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait as 'not good enough' and said he 'possibly' would step up bombing on Iran after the midterms, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Iran loaded no crude onto tankers in September. Iranian state media cited 'informed sources' saying no nuclear-program talks occurred in recent mediator meetings. The falsifiable test is whether Iran's list becomes a formal interdiction regime — or stays a post-hoc political label.
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〔Day Digest〕Three Tankers Hit in Hormuz as Trump's 'Full Control' Claim Meets Reality; Abu Dhabi's $30B Fujairah Play Targets 60% Bypass by 2028 - Japan, Pakistan, India Reroute Around the Strait
Three tankers were reported hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday per maritime risk firm Marisks via Reuters, with one outlet logging four strikes and two logging two - a 2-4 band, not a point - yet President Trump claimed the US has 'full control' over Hormuz shipping. The claim is contradicted not by rhetoric but by parallel workarounds: Abu Dhabi sovereign fund L'imad Holding, alongside BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners, Temasek, and ADNOC, is targeting up to $30 billion in Fujairah port infrastructure designed to bypass Hormuz, with Goldman Sachs projecting 45% of pre-war Gulf exports can bypass the strait by end-2027 and over 60% by end-2028. Japan and Pakistan are running separate diplomatic channels with Tehran on navigation and LNG passage, while Indian refiners are chartering their own tankers through the strait and tendering for Iraqi crude as a substitute load. France, after escorting about ten ships through Bab el-Mandeb last week, is consulting Saudi Arabia on a mission to protect energy infrastructure. The falsifiable test is whether projectile incidents and diplomatic process lock in structural rerouting - or whether a US naval guarantee stabilizes transits first.
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〔Overnight Brief〕CENTCOM Reroutes 125 Ships Under Bush Carrier as Trump Claims 'Full Control' of Hormuz and a 3-Day Flow Record — Yet 3-4 Tankers Hit, Fuel Shipments Stay Choked, 'War Will End Soon'
US Central Command said the carrier George H.W. Bush is operating in the Arabian Sea supporting the Iran blockade, with 125 merchant ships rerouted through Sept 30 to ensure compliance, while President Trump declared the US 'fully controls' the Strait of Hormuz and that oil flow has hit a record over the past three days. Yet the UK Maritime Trade Operations office logged three delayed reports of vessels hit by unknown projectiles — an LNG carrier, an oil tanker, and a crude oil tanker — and shipping trackers counted three to four tanker strikes in 24 hours, with fuel (not crude) shipments remaining constrained even as crude exports returned to prewar levels. Trump framed the moment as decisive — 'either bomb them or reach a deal' — and reiterated the war 'will end soon' alongside promised gasoline-price declines; the UAE is meanwhile planning a bypass port. What decides next: a fifth strike inside 24 hours, or a credible Iranian concession that puts a date on 'end soon.'
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〔Day Digest〕Iran Says It Has US Reply on Hormuz Deal While a VLCC Burns in Transit and Crude Hits 17.5 mb/d (98% Pre-War) — Backchannel vs Fire
Iran told state media on Sept 30 it has received a US reply to its proposal — conveyed via Qatar — to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, with Foreign Minister Araghchi reporting back from New York. Yet a VLCC was struck by an unknown projectile while entering the strait the same day, with fire reported on board, and traffic has shifted to AIS-dark operations. JPMorgan and Goldman diverge: JPM puts Middle East crude flows at 17.5 mb/d (98% of pre-war), products at 3 mb/d (58%), total 20.5 mb/d (89% of 2025 normal), while Goldman says Persian Gulf exports doubled in September and are back at the 2025 average. The Saudi East-West pipeline has partially restarted, with 9 tankers loading 12.5 mb on the Red Sea and throughput at 3.5 mb/d against a 7 mb/d peak. European gas holds near €70/MWh, Qatar LNG force majeure is extended, and Iran is warning UAE over Netanyahu's Sept 27 visit. Decides next: the contents of the US reply and whether the strikes continue.
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〔Overnight Brief〕Three Tanker Strikes Hold Brent Below $100 as Qatar's Interim Draft Reaches Tehran by Tuesday - Trump Denial vs IRGC '500km Pullback' Collide
At least three vessels were struck in the Strait of Hormuz over 48 hours, including a Kuwaiti KOTC tanker hit by "unknown projectiles" per UKMTO and a separate drone attack on a southern Hormuz route, with the fire extinguished and no environmental impact reported. Brent tested $100.28/bbl then retreated to the $97.62-100.28 range, down ~0.2% on the day. Yet mediators are pushing a revised interim draft for Iran to allow free passage in exchange for the US lifting its port blockade, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi saying he awaits a "Tuesday reply" via Qatar. US President Trump publicly denied any sanctions relief offer, while the IRGC claimed US warships have pulled back 500+ km from the Persian Gulf. Iraq is now routing gasoline imports through Syrian ports, and Oman plans to double Duqm storage to 10m barrels with two VLCCs. Iran's response due Tuesday is the next decisive print.