NIGHTINDEX · SERIES
industrial metals
Industrial Metals
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DAILY DIGESTS
日报
9 期
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〔Day Digest〕LME Copper Spread Spikes to $110 — 2021 High — as BHP's Copper Revenue Overtakes Iron Ore for the First Time, While LME Stocks Build 15,725t and Aluminum Drops 1% to $3,226.5
Copper's front-end LME spread spiked to $110, the highest since 2021, signalling acute short-term supply tightness even as total LME copper inventories rose 15,725 tonnes and COMEX registered stocks continued to build through warrant transfers [2][1][3][7]. BHP posted FY2026 (ended June 30, 2026) revenue of $58.8 billion (+15% YoY) and underlying profit of $13.2 billion (+30% YoY), with full-year copper revenue exceeding iron ore revenue for the first time; the company also projected 2050 global copper demand rising from ~34Mt to 50Mt [8][4]. Glencore's planned Australian debut could vault it into top indices within six months as copper appetite is seen outweighing thermal coal concerns [5]. Yet the broader base-metals tape is mixed: LME aluminum fell more than 1% to $3,226.5/ton, lead inventory dropped 1,975 tonnes, and the only GFFE warrant build added 680 lots of lithium carbonate to 37,369 [6][2][9]. Next test: whether the $110 spread holds through LME trading and whether Glencore's float lands before quarter-end.
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〔Overnight Brief〕Lepidolite Restart Looms Over a Soft Overnight Tape: Shanghai Tin -1.47%, LME Tin -$424 to $55,770, CATL's Yichun Scale Cut ~30% — Codelco Reshuffle Complicates Supply Calculus
Base metals closed mixed overnight: Shanghai tin dropped 1.47% and LME tin fell $424 to $55,770/t, while LME copper eased $2 to $14,158/t and aluminum gained $14 to $3,266/t [1][2]. Yet the supply narrative stole the session: CATL's Jianxiawo lepidolite mine took an 'extremely important step' toward restart, with the EIA accepted for review at a mining scale cut about 30% from pre-suspension levels, a project that once supplied 8-10% of China's lithium carbonate output [3]. Adding to the mix, Codelco's new CEO Jorge Gomez reshuffled mine leadership and India moved to cap state mining taxes, while Washington's critical-minerals push highlighted China's >85% refining share [6][4][5]. What decides next: the EIA's formal approval and any restart timeline, against a soft physical tape.
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〔Day Digest〕Cash Copper Spread Blows Past $500/T as Miners' Output Drops 3.9% and Korea Pays $1B for Supply - Lithium Creeps Up, SDIC Unit Liquidated
Copper's LME cash-to-three-month backwardation tore through the $478 level and above $500/t intraday [2][1], with major miners that cover ~55% of global mine supply cutting Q2 output by 3.9% y/y, and Jefferies now seeing a 440,000-tonne 2026 deficit even in a 2% GDP world [3]. Flows into the US ahead of Trump tariff decisions are draining other regions, leaving LME stockpiles just over 200,000 tonnes, the lowest since February, and three-month futures near a record at $14,360.50 [2][3]. Yet the squeeze is being financed for the next cycle: Korea Eximbank will lend Glencore $1 billion for copper deliveries to Korean firms, citing AI demand [5][6]. Elsewhere in the complex, battery-grade lithium carbonate ticked up 1,000 yuan/t to 153,950 yuan/t, and GFEX lithium futures warehouse receipts rose 591 lots [9][10], while a Hong Kong court ordered an SDIC Commodities unit to liquidate [7]. The decisive test is whether the $500+ spread persists as US-bound shipments continue, or whether tariff clarity releases inventories back into the LME system [2][1].
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〔Overnight Brief〕Copper Backwardation Heads for Highest Since 2021 as Codelco Shutdown Reports Emerge; LME Holds $14,160, Policy Overhang Grows
LME copper rose $12 to $14,160/ton [1], but the real signal was on the curve: spot is trading above later-dated futures in a backwardation heading for its steepest since 2021, and sources say Codelco will shut the Chuquicamata and Ministro Hales mines [5][4][6]. Yet the complex was mixed — aluminum slipped $6 to $3,252 and the Chinese night session saw lead and stainless steel fall [1][2] — while policy headlines stacked up: India restricted state mining taxes despite Jharkhand's revenue warning, and Indonesia's 2027 budget is set to favor miners, EV makers, and battery producers [9][10][11]. The Codelco shutdown reports remain unconfirmed, so the next LME copper close will test whether the squeeze is physical or financial [5][4][6].
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〔Day Digest〕Lithium Leads: Carbonate Futures +2%, Spot Midpoint 151,600 Yuan/T (+2,250) on Salt-Lake Push, While Aluminum -13.6kt vs Zinc +3.1kt, Lead +4.6kt Split the SHFE Complex
Lithium carbonate led the industrial metals complex in the latest session: futures main contract rose more than 2%, and Mysteel's MMLC battery-grade midpoint jumped 2,250 yuan to 151,600 yuan/t [1][2][3]. The move landed on a policy catalyst - MIIT Minister Li Lecheng toured Qinghai, Gansu and Ningxia to push a world-class salt lake industry, boosting lithium, potassium and magnesium resource efficiency [5]. Yet the rest of the complex diverged: SHFE weekly inventories showed aluminum down 13,642 tons and copper down 385 tons, but zinc up 3,116 tons and lead up 4,556 tons [4]. GFEX lithium carbonate warrants added 590 lots to 36,098, suggesting rising deliverable supply against the rally [7]. The cross-current: demand logic is shifting from real estate to AI, grids and electrification, according to Jin10 [6], and the next test is whether lithium's price strength can absorb the warrant build.
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〔Overnight Brief〕Overnight Brief: Industrial Metals — Aluminum Slips, Nickel Quota Signals, Chile/India Policy Moves
LME base metals were mixed overnight, with aluminum down 2.19% to $3,238/t and nickel down 1.11% to $16,760/t, while copper edged up 0.02% to $14,135.5/t [1]. Shanghai night trading saw aluminum fall 0.62% and lead 0.81% [2]. Indonesia's nickel miners' association signaled selective approval of extra 2026 ore quotas for smelters with low feedstock, capping the overall quota at 260–270 million tonnes versus 379 million in 2025; it proposed a 30-million-tonne strategic buffer [4]. Chile's Antofagasta expects a milder price environment in H2 and said its northern operations were unaffected by rainfall [5][6]. Chile's mining minister noted a pact with Argentina could bring $20.7 billion in investment and add 540,000 tonnes of copper annually [9]. India's mining minister said lithium and nickel processing incentives are forthcoming [10]. Wood Mackenzie reported three economic forces could boost EV production, with implications for metal markets [12]. Corporate earnings: Chalco International posted H1 net profit of ¥107 million, up 4.38% [13].
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〔Day Digest〕Copper Demand Seen 50% Higher by 2040; Aluminum Slips on Supply Relief, Lithium Cuts Emerge
Global copper demand is seen rising about 50% to 42 million mt by 2040, with a potential supply gap of up to 10 million mt, according to S&P Global [1]. In China, Tongling’s draft 15th Five-Year copper plan targets a world-class copper conglomerate and pushes high-end copper materials into AI servers, optical modules, liquid-cooling hardware and ultra-high-purity applications [3][4][2]. Lithium supply is tightening: July domestic lithium carbonate output fell 2.18% MoM to 107,700 mt as spodumene arrivals from Zimbabwe missed expectations, while battery-grade lithium carbonate prices slipped another 250 yuan/mt to a 148,000 yuan/mt midpoint [5][6]. Aluminum lost further ground after a major Middle East smelter said it would restore production sooner than expected [8], though Rio Tinto secured power for its Tomago smelter through a 10-year PPA [10]. Nickel buyers await selective Indonesian quota additions, with 2026 quotas set around 260–270 million mt versus 379 million mt in 2025 [11]. Tin supply is advancing as Xingye Silver Tin’s Atlantic project starts construction in Q4 [12][13][14].
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〔Overnight Brief〕Overnight Metals: Codelco Weighs El Teniente Expansion, Australia Backs Tomago, Indonesia Courts India in Nickel
Base metals were mixed overnight [1][2]. On the LME, copper slipped 0.33% to $14,109.50/t, while aluminium fell 1.50% to $3,313.50/t; zinc and nickel rose [1]. On the SHFE night session, alumina led gainers with a 1.00% rise, while nickel fell 0.50% [2][3]. In copper, Chile's Codelco said it is studying enlarging the El Teniente pit to compensate for production delayed by earthquake risk [4][5]. In aluminium, Australia announced A$2.5bn (about $1.76bn) in funding to help Rio Tinto's Tomago smelter stay open after 2028, adding 3 GW of generation and extending operations to 2039 [6][8]. The smelter will invest at least A$1.1bn, including A$100m for decarbonisation [6]. In nickel, SAIL and Indonesia's Krakatau Steel are planning a $350m, 500,000 t/y stainless steel slab plant, with Indonesia's global nickel ore share having risen to ~66.7% in 2025 [9]. Meanwhile, African nations are enforcing local processing rules, which the SCMP says is making Africa a 'strategic hub' for Chinese industrial expansion [10].
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〔Day Digest〕Lithium Build-Out Meets Alumina Supply Shock and PNG Copper Restart; Solid-State Capital Shifts Upstream
Sinomine Resource's Zimbabwe unit obtained the EIA certificate, moving its 100,000 tonne/year lithium sulfate project into full construction, with commissioning targeted for mid-2027 [1]. The world's largest single alumina plant cut half its capacity after a natural gas supply disruption [2], while India's Lloyds Metals was authorized to prepare the restart of a Papua New Guinea copper mine closed for nearly 40 years [3]. In solid-state batteries, planned industry investment exceeded 50 billion yuan in H1 2026 with over 100 GWh of expansion, but cell-side investment cooled while electrolyte investment nearly quadrupled to more than 8 billion yuan [4].