〔Day Digest〕Russian Crude Hits 2.6 mb/d and Over Half of India's Imports as Gulf Squeeze Bites; Six EU States Press Bloc-Wide Oil Windfall Tax — Jackson Hole Week Decides

0. Weekly Arc

The Gulf conflict is reordering Asian energy flows and forcing a parallel political reaction in Europe, all on the eve of a heavy central-bank week. India sits at the receiving end of the squeeze ^[1], six EU capitals press for a bloc-wide oil windfall tax ^[2], and an ECB succession subplot opens in the background ^[3]. Jackson Hole, BoK, RBA, Riksbank and the ECB minutes crowd the next five sessions ^[4].

1. India Back to Moscow: Russian Crude Hits a Record

• **[NEW] Sumit Ritolia, Kpler (via FT):** Russian crude imports into India hit 2.6 mb/d in June-July, up from 1 mb/d in February, and now make up over half of New Delhi's crude purchases ^[1].
• **[NEW] Driver:** Strait of Hormuz trickle-out, with a US-Iran peace deal still distant, forced India to re-source from Russia; Trump approved partial waivers to cushion the blow ^[1].
• **[NEW] Coal side-channel:** India also reverted to coal generation as Middle East gas was cut off by the war; annual coal output rose 70% over the past decade to 1.04 billion tonnes ^[1]. Energy-mix read: substitution, not a fossil exit.

2. EU Fiscal Politics: Bloc-Wide Oil Windfall Tax

• **[NEW] Six-state push:** Germany, Italy, Austria, Poland, Portugal and Spain are intensifying calls for an EU-wide windfall tax on oil companies ^[2]. Single-source market flash; policy vehicle, rate, and timeline are not specified.
• **[ESCALATED] Canada parallel:** PM Mark Carney convened provincial and territorial leaders online to discuss countermeasures against tariffs ^[5]. Frame: North Atlantic tariff retaliation is now coordinated, not improvised.

3. ECB Transition Subplot

• **[NEW] NZZ, via Reuters:** Christine Lagarde is "ready to serve" as WEF president at some point in 2027 ^[3]. Sourcing is a single Swiss newspaper report; no ECB confirmation and no fixed date.
• **[NEW] Read-through:** a 2027 transition would sit behind the BoK, RBA, Riksbank, ECB-minutes and Jackson Hole window ^[4]; for now, treat it as a personnel risk-premium, not a policy pivot ^[3].

4. Week-Ahead Catalysts

• **[NEW] Central banks:** BoK meeting, RBA, Riksbank, ECB minutes, plus Jackson Hole ^[4].
• **[NEW] Inflation:** US, Australia, Tokyo, France, Spain ^[4]. Of these, Tokyo, France and Spain are the non-US, non-China reads the global-macro board tracks directly.
• **[NEW] US/China-tied items (background only):** US BLS revisions, China's top legislature meeting, Bessent on Iran, Nvidia earnings ^[4]. Flagged here so they do not get re-promoted later.

5. Contrarian and Tail Risks

• Two-way energy read: India's coal bounce and Russian-crude pivot show short-run substitution is fossil-on-fossil ^[1]; a windfall-tax push in the EU points the other way ^[2]. The two can co-exist for a quarter, not for a year — a Gulf de-escalation would unwind both legs fast ^[1].
• Source-quality control: items ^[5] and ^[2] are short market-flash items without named attribution; the WEF move is single-source NZZ ^[3]; the India volume figures are Kpler via the FT ^[1]. Treat the windfall-tax and WEF leads as signals, not facts, until they harden.