〔Day Digest〕Turkey Locks 2026 CPI at 28.4%, Trims 2027 Growth to 4.2%, Tags 7pp War Drag; Korean Firms Hoard $76.98B as Won Slumps

0. Weekly Arc

Turkey's medium-term economic program (OVP) reframed the disinflation story: 2026 inflation was held at 28.4%, but the path now bends through 21% in 2027 and 13.5% in 2028 ^[1]. Vice President Yilmaz quantified the war drag at roughly 7 percentage points and warned the "strong downward trend" has temporarily flattened ^[2][3]. The lira stress is being mirrored in emerging Asia: South Korea's top five banks booked a record $76.98 billion in corporate dollar deposits as the won hit a near two-year low ^[4].

1. Turkey's Medium-Term Program

• **[NEW] Inflation path held, growth rebalanced:** 2026 inflation 28.4%, 2027 21%, 2028 13.5%; 2026 unemployment 8.1%, easing to 7.8% by 2028 ^[1]. 2026 GDP forecast upgraded to 3.3%, while 2027 was trimmed from 4.3% to 4.2% ^[5][6].
• **[NEW] Fiscal anchor:** 2027 budget deficit pegged at 3.5% of GDP, narrowing to 3.1% in 2028 and 2.8% in 2029 ^[1].
• **[NEW] Savings banked:** 484 billion lira in spending savings logged by Finance Minister ^[7].
• **[NEW] Single-digit inflation goal re-stated:** Yilmaz said the main objective is to bring inflation to single digits and lock in price stability, with fiscal discipline maintained ^[8].

2. War Channel in the Disinflation Story

• **[NEW] VP Yilmaz:** the strong downward inflation trend has "temporarily flattened" because of supply-side pressure from the Iran war ^[2]; the war's direct and indirect impact on inflation is estimated at roughly 7 percentage points ^[3].
• **[ESCALATED] Regional watch:** Yilmaz said the cabinet is closely monitoring regional tensions and their impact on energy and commodity markets, and is taking measures to limit fallout on the Turkish economy ^[9]; separately, he warned that the regional war has extended the anti-inflation fight ^[10].
• **[NEW] Central Bank Governor (Yilmaz-era; name not in wire):** recent inflation data, despite war headwinds, shows "positive developments" ^[11]. Yilmaz added that the changes in economic and inflation forecasts do not signal a shift in the plan's direction or main framework ^[12].
• **[NEW] Policy mix pledge:** continued use of macroprudential tools to support the monetary policy stance ^[13], alongside coordinated fiscal and revenue policy to entrench disinflation ^[14].

3. Targets Beyond Disinflation

• **[NEW] Income and export ambition:** national income target raised above $2.2 trillion, exports target $450 billion by end of the medium-term plan ^[15]. Treat as aspiration, not forecast.
• **[NEW] Finance Minister (name not in wire):** "We have not yet reached the ideal level on inflation... we have ambitious inflation targets," and noted calculated inflation inertia is running below the actual ^[16]. Source quality: speaker named by role only.
• **[ONGOING] Single-digit inflation target** reaffirmed as the anchor of price stability ^[8].

4. South Korea: Dollar Hoarding on Won Weakness

• **[NEW] Record corporate dollar deposits:** as of Thursday, the top five domestic banks — KB Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana, Woori and NongHyup — held $76.98 billion in corporate dollar deposits, the highest since the series began in May 2021 ^[4]. The move tracks the won's fall to a near two-year low against the dollar ^[4]. Source quality: single-wire aggregate; underlying bank-level data not in the packet.

5. What Would Falsify the Read

• If next month's inflation print re-accelerates beyond the 7pp war drag already in the base, the central bank governor's "positive developments" framing breaks and the 21%-by-2027 path slips ^[11][3].
• If the won breaks through the near two-year low and Korean corporates keep adding dollar deposits, the EM-FX leg of the Turkey story will spread; if they repatriate, it stays a one-off ^[4].
• Source quality control: the 7pp war-impact figure is a single-source VP quote ^[3]; the $2.2 trillion income and $450 billion export targets are ambitions, not baseline forecasts ^[15]; the OVP growth and inflation paths are government projections rather than independent consensus ^[5][6][1].