〔Overnight Brief〕COMEX Copper Pops 2% to $6.9/lb, LME Splits, but IMIP NPI Cuts and a $1B Glencore-Recycle Offtake Reframe the Squeeze - 1Mt Stockpile Risk Caps the Bid

0. Overnight Arc

COMEX copper popped over 2% to $6.9/lb while LME closed mixed: three-month copper at $14,756 (+0.62%), nickel at $16,560 (+1.07%), but zinc at $3,905 (-0.52%) and aluminum at $3,258 (-0.15%) ^[1][2]. Yet the tape tells a different story in the byproducts: Indonesian nickel hub IMIP is cutting nickel pig iron output on El Niño-linked water shortages, and US recycler Nth Cycle signed a $1 billion lithium and critical-minerals offtake with Glencore ahead of its planned public listing ^[3][4]. Net: copper on the front, supply-side restructuring on the back ^[1][2][3][4].

1. Copper and LME Tape

• **[NEW]** COMEX copper up over 2%, at $6.9/lb ^[1].
• **[NEW]** LME close mixed: aluminum -0.15% at $3,258; copper +0.62% at $14,756; nickel +1.07% at $16,560; lead -0.18% at $1,931.5; tin +0.18% at $54,255; zinc -0.52% at $3,905 ^[2]. The split (nickel and copper green, aluminum and zinc red) is the cleanest read in the packet ^[2].

2. Supply Disruption Watch

• **[NEW]** Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) cut nickel pig iron output, with the water shortage linked to this year's El Niño pattern ^[4]. IMIP informed companies at the weekend of the production reduction, per Bloomberg sources; IMIP spokesperson Dedy Kurniawan confirmed the shortfall to Reuters ^[4].
• **[NEW]** Indian critical-minerals producer Lohum is seeking to buy nickel mines in Indonesia and the Philippines, targeting a tenfold increase in production to meet battery-mineral demand ^[5].

3. Critical Minerals Capital Flows

• **[NEW]** Nth Cycle signed a $1 billion offtake with Glencore to supply lithium and other critical minerals extracted from recycled batteries, ahead of a planned public listing later this year ^[3].
• **[NEW]** Spanish miner Abenojar Tungsten SA is considering a London IPO this year, driven by Europe's effort to secure its own supply of the critical metal, per people familiar with the matter ^[6].
• **[ONGOING]** ZCCM-IH (Zambia) board chair Phesto Musonda, speaking at the SMM 2026 Africa Critical Minerals Conference on September 15, framed resource states as equity participants rather than dividend takers; copper demand growth is outpacing new-mine approvals, with 15-20 year development lead times from discovery to production ^[7].

4. Contrarian / Tail Risk

• **[NEW]** A headline piece flags 1 million tons of stockpiled copper that could trigger a sell-off if tariffs fail to materialize ^[8]. The packet carries the headline only, with no underlying data, methodology, or attribution in the material ^[8]. Treat as a watch item, not a data point ^[8].

5. Source Quality

• WSJ's "Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk" is referenced for Capstone Copper, Ramelius Resources, and Artemis Gold, but the packet contains no specific facts on those names ^[9].
• The 1Mt-stockpile copper item is a single-sourced headline with no supporting data in the packet; the IMIP NPI-cut story is single-via-Bloomberg and Reuters confirmed by company spokesperson, so the supply-side narrative is firmer than the tariff/stockpile one ^[4][8].