〔Overnight Brief〕Tin Adds $500 to $51,017 as Zinc Gains 1.94%, but $3.0bn Capstone Plan and $833mn Alumina Win Signal a Supply Push

0. Overnight Arc

**[ONGOING] Source-quality flag:** Opening price evidence is thin because the packet supplies two brief LME closing feeds with slightly different timestamps and no reconciliation of their levels, so this brief prints both instead of choosing a definitive close ^[1][2].

**[ONGOING] Tape arc:** Zinc, tin, copper and lead were higher in both snapshots, nickel was lower in both, and aluminum split between a $3 decline and a 0.20% gain, making the overnight signal mixed rather than uniformly bullish ^[1][2].

1. Exchange Tape

• **[NEW] CLS LME close:** Tin rose $500 to $51,017 per tonne, zinc gained $70 to $3,814 per tonne, copper added $5 to $14,328 per tonne and lead gained $16 to $1,923 per tonne; cobalt was unchanged at $34,620 per tonne, while aluminum fell $3 to $3,040 per tonne and nickel dropped $287 to $15,561 per tonne ^[1].
• **[NEW] Tonghuashun's alternate LME close:** Aluminum was up 0.20% at $3,046.5, copper was up 0.32% at $14,344, nickel was down 1.80% at $15,580, lead was up 0.92% at $1,923, tin was up 0.41% at $50,975 and zinc was up 1.94% at $3,819 ^[2].
• **[NEW] COMEX aluminum:** Futures fell more than 1% to $3,103.0 per metric ton ^[3].
• **[NEW] China night session:** Caustic soda fell more than 2%, low-sulfur fuel oil, SC crude oil and PVC fell more than 1%, and sugar, staple fiber and soybeans No. 1 and No. 2 were nearly 1% lower; bitumen gained more than 3%, methanol more than 2%, fuel oil, polypropylene and Shanghai zinc more than 1%, and ethylene glycol nearly 1% ^[4].

2. Earnings and Operating Scale

• **[NEW] Yunnan Copper, 000878.SZ:** Q3 revenue was RMB52.306 billion, up 10.60% year on year, and attributable net profit was RMB703 million, up 143.77%; nine-month revenue was RMB163.855 billion, up 24.78%, and attributable net profit was RMB2.600 billion, up 47.86%; the source's calculation puts Q3 profit 42% below Q2's RMB1.222 billion ^[5].
• **[NEW] Shengxin Lithium Energy:** Nine-month revenue was RMB11.626 billion, up 275.69%, and attributable net profit was RMB1.232 billion versus a RMB752 million loss; Q3 revenue was RMB4.268 billion, up 188.22%, and attributable net profit was RMB220 million, up 148.26% ^[6].
• **[NEW] Tianhua New Energy:** Q3 revenue was RMB3.540 billion, up 67.53%, and attributable net profit was RMB219 million, up 15.73%; nine-month revenue was RMB11.320 billion, up 103.20%, and attributable net profit was RMB2.512 billion, up 2,446.71% ^[7].
• **[NEW] Lithium read-through:** The China Securities Journal said several listed lithium-mining companies had disclosed Q3 reports by October 26 and described continuing downstream-demand recovery as support for their first-three-quarter performance ^[8].

3. Capacity, Capital and Operating Friction

• **[NEW] Chinalco International, 601068.SH:** The company won the Binh Phu Mining alumina project in Vietnam, with annual output of 2.4 million tonnes, an EPC contract worth $833 million, or about RMB5.595 billion, and a 27-month schedule covering design, equipment supply, construction and commissioning; it said the specific financial impact cannot yet be measured and flagged political, legal and foreign-exchange risks ^[9].
• **[NEW] Capstone Copper:** Chile's Ministry of Mining said Capstone announced a $3.0 billion investment plan in the Atacama region ^[10].
• **[NEW] Perpetua Resources:** The company received up to $40 million from the US Army to advance localization of tungsten supply for US defense ^[11].
• **[ESCALATED] Cost-led curtailment:** Mysteel, as relayed by Jin10, said a large ferrosilicon plant in Gansu partially shut four 12,500 kVA submerged-arc furnaces for maintenance because costs were high, cutting daily output of grade-72 ferrosilicon by about 130-140 tonnes with no restart date ^[12].
• **[ESCALATED] Physical disruption:** Severstal said a mining and processing plant in Russia's Belgorod region partially lost power after a drone attack, and miners were evacuated ^[13].
• **[NEW] Recycling policy:** Hunan's newly released 15th Five-Year circular-economy plan calls for upgrading two national urban-mining demonstration bases and supporting cross-city coordination in Changsha engineering-equipment remanufacturing, Zhuzhou rail-transit remanufacturing and Xiangtan scrap-steel processing and distribution ^[14].

4. Falsification and Next Checks

• **[ONGOING] Broad-rally test:** Continued weakness in aluminum and nickel would undermine any reading that the overnight move was a uniform advance across the metals complex ^[1][2][3].
• **[NEW] Supply-timing test:** Chinalco's project has a 27-month construction period, while the packet provides no completion timetable or output schedule for Capstone's $3.0 billion plan or Perpetua's grant, so those announcements cannot yet be treated as quantified near-term metal supply ^[9][11][10].
• **[ONGOING] Operational test:** The Severstal item supplies no lost-tonnage estimate or restart timing, while the Gansu curtailment removes about 130-140 tonnes per day of grade-72 ferrosilicon output but also has no restart date ^[12][13].
• **[NEW] Earnings-momentum test:** The China Securities Journal describes continuing downstream lithium-demand recovery, while Yunnan Copper's Q3 profit was calculated to be 42% below Q2 despite 143.77% year-on-year growth, leaving operating momentum mixed ^[8][5].