Copper's 2.8% Weekly Slide Meets a 27,642-Ton Inventory Low: AI Position Unwind Tests Tight China Supply

0. Weekly Arc: U.S. PPI High and AI Selling Meet Physical Tightness ^[1][2]

• **[NEW] Macro arc:** SMM's headline attributed the broad metals decline to a four-year high in U.S. October PPI, while Goldman Sachs tied copper's slide to AI-related equity selling and position adjustment ^[1][2].
• **[NEW] Source check:** SMM provides detailed market figures, Bloomberg's Sherritt item is a brief corporate update without a payment amount, and Jin10 Data's Manila report relies on foreign media citing two people familiar with preparations plus another Philippine government source ^[1][2][3][4].
• **[NEW] Cross-asset split:** Most base metals fell, while LME lead, LME tin, SHFE lead, coking coal and coke posted gains ^[1].
• **[ESCALATED] Precious-metal stress:** COMEX gold gained only 0.06% overnight but recorded a 4.6% weekly loss, while COMEX silver fell 2.83% ^[1].
• **[ESCALATED] Corporate stress:** Sherritt International missed an interest payment on secured notes, deepening its liquidity crisis ^[3].
• **[NEW] Policy watch:** U.S., Japanese, Australian and Indian leaders were expected to meet in Manila, with critical-mineral supply and commercial shipping security among the likely topics ^[4].

1. Copper's Five-Week Slide Collides with a Record Physical Premium ^[2]

• **[NEW] Price break:** At the Nov. 13 London 17:00 close, LME three-month copper had fallen $189, or 1.39%, to $13,399.0/t, touching $13,353/t intraday, the lowest since July 9 ^[2]. The contract also fell to a four-month low ^[2].
• **[NEW] Weekly extension:** Copper lost 2.8% for a fifth consecutive week, marking its steepest weekly decline since the week of March 20 ^[2].
• **[NEW] AI mechanism:** Goldman Sachs said AI-related stocks had been sold since Democrats won the U.S. midterms, dragging copper lower ^[2]. The bank said the correction reflected position adjustment rather than weakening copper fundamentals ^[2].
• **[NEW] Exposure:** Because copper is widely used in electrification and data centers, Goldman described it as highly exposed to the AI investment theme ^[2].
• **[ONGOING] Physical contradiction:** Goldman noted that Chinese copper supply remained tight, with inventories at low levels and premiums elevated ^[2]. SHFE copper inventory fell another 18.3% to 27,642 t, its lowest since December 2023 ^[2].
• **[NEW] Import premium:** The Yangshan copper premium, described as a measure of Chinese import demand, touched a record $285/t over LME on Friday ^[2].
• **[NEW] Snapshot check:** SMM's overnight board showed LME copper down 1.74%, while its LME three-month close snapshot was down 1.39%; the source timestamps and contract labels differ, so the readings should be shown separately ^[1][2].

2. Cross-Metal Selling Is Broad, Not Uniform: Nickel, Zinc and Silver Lead ^[1][2]

• **[NEW] Base metals:** LME copper fell 1.74%, LME nickel 1.98%, SHFE zinc 1.05% and SHFE nickel 1.47%, while LME lead rose 0.37%, LME tin 0.10% and SHFE lead 1.37% ^[1].
• **[NEW] Aluminum complex:** Alumina's main contract fell 2.32% and cast aluminum's main contract fell 0.02%, while LME three-month aluminum closed at $3,010/t, down $20.5 or 0.68% ^[1][2].
• **[NEW] Black complex:** Iron ore fell 1.12%, while coking coal rose 1.4% and coke rose 1.3% ^[1].
• **[ESCALATED] Precious metals:** COMEX gold rose 0.06% overnight but lost 4.6% for the week; COMEX silver fell 2.83%, touched an intraday low of 48.405 yuan/ounce, the lowest since November 2025, and lost 6.34% for the week ^[1].
• **[NEW] Shanghai precious metals:** Shanghai gold fell 0.21% overnight and 4.57% for the week, while Shanghai silver fell 2.16% overnight and 4.69% for the week ^[1].
• **[NEW] Macro read:** SMM attributed pressure on precious metals to rising expectations for hawkish rate hikes and a stronger dollar ^[1].
• **[NEW] Domestic operations:** The People's Bank of China scheduled a 200 billion yuan outright reverse-repo operation for November 16 ^[1].

3. Sherritt's Missed Payment and the Manila Supply Agenda ^[3][4]

• **[ESCALATED] Sherritt International Corp.:** The troubled Canadian miner missed an interest payment on secured notes, deepening its liquidity crisis ^[3]. U.S. sanctions had forced it to halt production in Cuba ^[3].
• **[NEW] Leaders' meeting:** The leaders of the United States, Japan, Australia and India were expected to meet Tuesday in Manila during an important Asian conference, marking the first Quad leaders' summit in two years ^[4].
• **[NEW] Critical minerals:** One person familiar with preparations said critical-mineral supply was expected to be included on the Quad agenda ^[4].
• **[NEW] Shipping security:** Leaders may discuss ensuring commercial shipping lanes remain free and unobstructed to protect global energy supplies, while attacks on merchant ships may also be raised ^[4].
• **[NEW] Timing:** A Philippine government source expected Trump to arrive in Manila on Tuesday, the final day of the ASEAN summit, with the Quad leaders expected shortly afterward ^[4].

4. Falsification Tests: Physical Premium, Payment Status and Agenda Confirmation ^[1][2][3][4]

• **[NEW] Copper test:** A rebound while SHFE stocks keep falling and the Yangshan premium stays near its record would support the position-adjustment explanation; renewed weakness accompanied by easing inventories and premiums would challenge it ^[2].
• **[NEW] Precious-metals test:** A reversal in the stronger-dollar and hawkish-rate pressure identified by SMM would challenge its explanation for the weekly gold and silver losses ^[1].
• **[NEW] Sherritt test:** Resolution of the missed interest payment would ease the immediate liquidity pressure, while another missed payment would signal deeper stress ^[3].
• **[NEW] Manila test:** Confirmation that critical-mineral supply and shipping security are on the agenda would validate the reported setup, although the source provides no commitments or outcomes ^[4].