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October 23, 2026 8 signal desks
Research Notes 2026-09-08 中文 PDF

NIGHTLY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

〔Overnight Brief〕Two 2026 Hikes Priced, Brent Lifted to $85, Long End 'Loses Anchor' — UBS and Deutsche Bank Split on How Far the Fed Has to Go

UBS now forecasts two US Fed rate hikes in 2026 after a strong August non-farm payrolls print of 162k, with CME FedWatch showing 59.40% odds for a September move, yet Deutsche Bank strategist Henry Allen argues investors are still underestimating the scale of hikes needed to fight inflation. Hong Hao, CIO of Lianhua Asset Management, frames the US Treasury long-end as having "lost its anchor" — with the oil bid, US fiscal deficits and dollar credit as co-drivers, not just inflation expectations — and calls it the key global-pricing variable. Goldman has lifted 2026 Brent/WTI by $5 to $85/$80 and flags a $120/bbl Brent tail if 2027 Gulf output runs 4 mb/d below pre-war levels. Morgan Stanley previews August US CPI and puts a 65% probability on future core PCE returning to 2%. On the China research desk, call flow is dense: PCB "Davis Double Click", 400G optical modules on a MIIT policy push toward a projected $148.495 billion 2028 market, Tesla Optimus V3 supply lock-in with V4 iteration by year-end, and AI liquid-cooling precision manufacturing. Zhang Yidong (Haitong International) extends his AI bull thesis to 2027. The next print that decides: August US CPI.

9 source channels 5 min read

0. Overnight Arc

[NEW] The Fed-debate tape is re-hardening. UBS lifted to two 2026 hikes after the strong August payrolls print, and CME FedWatch puts September at 59.40% [1][2][3], yet Deutsche Bank's Henry Allen argues the market is still too soft on the rate path [4] — the contradictory call. Hong Hao, CIO of Lianhua Asset Management, reframes the macro axis around the US Treasury long-end "losing its anchor" [5], with the oil bid, US fiscal deficits and dollar-credit concerns as drivers, not just inflation expectations. Goldman raised 2026 Brent/WTI by $5 to $85/$80 and flagged a $120/bbl Brent tail [6][7]. Chinese research desks delivered a sector-heavy call flow overnight: PCB, optical modules, Tesla Optimus, AI cooling, and central-financer recap [8][9][10][11][12].

1. Fed: Two Hikes Priced vs. "Markets Are Wrong"

  • **[NEW] UBS** now forecasts two 2026 US Fed hikes after a strong jobs report, per a Reuters pickup [1]. A separate CNBC-driven UBS note on what to own and avoid carries the same underlying thesis [13].
  • **[NEW] TD Securities** fed-rate outlook coverage adds to the hawkish cluster [14]. Source quality: TD item is a headline pickup, not a full note [14].
  • **[NEW] Deutsche Bank's Henry Allen:** investors are underestimating the scale of rate hikes needed to tackle inflation given upward pressure on prices [4]. Contradicts UBS on magnitude, not direction.
  • **[ONGOING] CME FedWatch:** September FOMC hike odds at 59.40% on the back of the 162k August non-farm payrolls beat [2][3]. The Fed's own Beige Book notes growth is increasingly dependent on AI data centers while consumer "K-shape" divergence widens [3].

2. The Long End Has Lost Its Anchor

  • **[NEW] Hong Hao (Lianhua Asset Management CIO):** US Treasury long-end yields losing anchor is the decisive global-pricing variable; the oil bid, US fiscal deficits and dollar-credit concerns are co-drivers, not just inflation expectations [5]. He sees technical-rebound sectors needing a pause; prefers semiconductor hardware and energy for near-term earnings/oil certainty; software and some agriculture likely to consolidate after three-month rallies [5]. Single-source view — flag as such [5].
  • **[ONGOING] Zhang Yidong (Haitong International):** last week's continued rise in global long-end rates remains the main drag on the autumn rally; AI tech funds have not yet visibly exited, but risk appetite cannot lift quickly ahead of the rate call [15]. He now calls 9-month "bitter before sweet" and an entry window for AI bull and China quality assets, extending the thesis through 2027 [15].
  • **[ONGOING] Macro liquidity tape:** 10Y US Treasury nominal/real rates both rose last week, inflation expectations ticked up, offshore dollar liquidity eased marginally, China bank-interbank funding stayed easy-short, and the 10Y-1Y term spread narrowed slightly [16].

3. Oil: Goldman Lifts, Tail to $120

  • **[NEW] Goldman** raised 2026 Brent/WTI by $5 to $85/$80; 2027 to $80/$75 [7].
  • **[NEW] Goldman tail scenario:** if 2027 Gulf average crude output runs 4 mb/d below pre-war, Brent could exceed $120/bbl [6].
  • **[ONGOING]** A 9/7 macro deep-dive reframes crude as a three-purpose allocation tool — macro inflation hedge, portfolio tail-risk hedge, and strategic supply-reconfiguration hedge — explicitly not a buy-and-hold [17]. Tool menu: oil-equity/ETF, commodity QDII, crude futures and derivatives [17].

4. China Research Desk: Sector Call Flow

  • **[NEW] PCB chain** — "Davis Double Click" thesis with multiple foreseeable tech-iteration catalysts still ahead [8].
  • **[NEW] Optical modules** — MIIT pushes 400G+ high-speed transmission and 100G optical-network equipment downward; 2028 global optical-module market projected at $148.495 billion [10].
  • **[NEW] Tesla Optimus** — mass-production visibility rising; 2027 production-prep guidance above industry expectations; V3 core supply chain largely locked, V4 iteration expected before year-end [9].
  • **[NEW] AI liquid cooling** — a platform-style precision manufacturer with ~1/10 global share extending into AI liquid cooling and robotics, set to benefit from precision thermal-management demand tied to AI compute upgrades [11]. Single-source teaser [11].
  • **[NEW] Cosmetics** — high-end improving, personal care bright; valuation-repair elasticity favored [18].
  • **[ESCALATED] Central-financer recap** — 300 billion yuan in special treasury bonds allocated to 8 central financial institutions (ABC 130bn, ICBC 70bn, Eximbank 30bn, Sinosure 10bn, China Life Group 35bn, PICC Group 15bn, China Taiping 7bn, China Re 3bn); the 100 billion going outside ICBC/ABC broadens the original 200bn commercial-bank script to 200bn commercial, 30bn policy bank, 60bn commercial insurance, 10bn policy insurance — framed as a risk-appetite lift ahead of Monday's open [12].
  • **[ONGOING] Broker ROE:** H1 listed-securities ROE back to a ten-year high; Changjiang Securities leads at 8.39%, with CITIC Securities, China Merchants Securities, Huaan Securities and GF Securities all above 8% [19].
  • **[ONGOING] Strategy desks:** Southwest Securities flags mid-cap-report landing with broad index pullback (Shanghai Composite -0.56%, Shenzhen Composite -2.24%, STAR50 -5.10%, ChiNext -4.03%, CSI 300 -1.33%, CSI 50 +0.02%, CSI 2000 -0.91%, CSI 1000 -2.56%); financials/stability/consumption up, cyclicals/growth down [20]. Wanlian Securities sees HK sentiment improving with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index +0.76% and HSI +0.26% on the week to 9/4 [2].

5. August CPI and the Falsifier

  • **[NEW] Morgan Stanley pre-August-CPI:** disinflation continuing, with a 65% probability that future core PCE returns to 2% [21]. If the print lands soft, the "two-hike" cluster compresses toward one; if sticky, Deutsche Bank's "markets are wrong" framing wins and the long-end-anchor thesis accelerates [5][4].
  • **Source-quality flag:** the strongest single-source items are the long-end-anchor thesis and the AI-cooling/platform teaser [5][11]; the sectoral call flow is dense but each note is a teaser rather than a full report [8][9][10]. UBS and TD coverage appears as headline pickups, not full research notes [13][14][1]. Goldman items [6][7] are two separate flash-news items on the same day — consistent directionally, treat as one view.

SOURCE TRAIL

Citations

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