〔Overnight Brief〕China July Activity Data, LPR and Fed Minutes Stack the Week as 'Computing-Power Loans' Proliferate and Non-Bank Deposits Fall RMB1.03T YoY - Housing Recovery Splits by City

Week Ahead: Data, Policy, and Earnings Overlap

Monday, August 17 at 15:00 Beijing time, the National Bureau of Statistics releases July industrial value-added, fixed-asset investment, retail sales, and the 70-city home price report ^[1]. The State Council Information Office holds a press conference on July national economic performance at 3 pm the same day ^[2]. On August 20, the latest 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates will be announced ^[2]. The Fed releases July FOMC minutes on August 19, which will provide clues on whether the Fed hikes in September ^[2]. [NEW]

Banking and Credit: Computing-Power Loans and Deposit Flows

Banks are accelerating 'computing-power loans'—Guangdong launched the first 'Token Loan' product, which uses enterprise compute token output, compute-service contract value, and token commission settlements as core credit bases ^[3]. Experts lean toward compute becoming a supplementary credit dimension for tech firms, not a replacement for traditional credit systems ^[3]. Meanwhile, July data showed RMB deposits rose only RMB30 billion, a year-on-year shortfall of RMB470 billion, with non-bank deposits down RMB1.03 trillion YoY and household deposits down RMB630 billion ^[4]. The M2-M1 gap narrowed to 3.7 percentage points from 4, but the narrowing was passive as M2 growth slowed, and given the above-seasonal credit contraction, the trend in fund activation remains to be seen ^[4]. [NEW][ONGOING]

Housing Response: Beijing Bounces, But Land Market Splits

In the first week after the new policy (August 8-14), Beijing new-home transactions rose 5.1% week-on-week and resales rose 9.8% ^[5]. Five residential land plots traded, with the Shijingshan Apple Orchard plot at a 23% premium and Haidian Sijiqing at 14%, while the other three went at floor prices—a clear divergence, with core-area scarce land showing strong anti-cyclical resilience ^[5]. A private Liaoning developer, Yinsheng, entered Beijing, suggesting marginal improvement in market confidence ^[5]. [NEW]

Central SOEs and Economic Stabilization

Central SOEs posted RMB1.4 trillion in total profits in H1, with fixed-asset investment up 4.5% YoY ^[6]. The SASAC has set out six priorities for H2, including stabilizing growth, original innovation, industrial upgrading, SOE reform implementation, risk prevention, and strategic support ^[6]. Li Jin, chief researcher at the China Enterprise Research Institute, said SOEs must act as the 'ballast stone' under pressure, fulfilling short-term growth responsibilities while seeking industrial transformation windows ^[6]. [ONGOING]

External and Environmental Items

Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan said the airport handled over 200,000 aircraft movements in H1, up 4.4% YoY, with passenger volume at 32.8 million, up 11.7% ^[7]. Visitor arrivals hit 31.22 million in the first seven months, up 12% YoY ^[7]. Separately, Ecology and Environment Minister Huang Runqiu inspected Sanmen Nuclear Power Plant in Zhejiang, stressing nuclear safety as the highest priority ^[8]. The national carbon market will expand again to include petrochemical and chemical sectors ^[9]. [NEW]

Risk and Sourcing Notes

Source quality varies: the Beijing housing numbers come from a CITIC Construction Investment weekly report via People's Finance ^[5], while deposit-flow figures are from central bank data as interpreted by a financial media outlet ^[4]. The computing-power loan details are single-source reports ^[3]. The US 8月纽约联储制造业指数 and NAHB housing index Monday may offer external cues, but no consensus forecasts are available in the material ^[1][10]. The FOMC minutes ^[2] and China's July activity data ^[1] are the week's main catalysts; the LPR decision will test whether easing bias persists ^[2]. [NEW]