〔Day Digest〕Provident-Fund Rewrite Ignites Property, 30Y Futures Drop 0.27% as Yuan Firms 50 pips to 6.7377 — Targeted Stimulus Beats Broad Easing

0. Daily Arc

The State Council's revision of the Housing Provident Fund Management Regulations widened the extraction menu to include renovation of owner-occupied homes and property-fee payments, removed the rent/income ratio gate on rent extraction, and triggered a broad property rally ^[1]. Two A-share names (5&1 Home, Nandu Property) hit the daily limit; Hong Kong developer stocks extended their run, with Jinhui Holdings +8% leading the board ^[1][2]. Yet the long end of the bond curve sold off: 30-year treasury futures closed down 0.27% after opening uniformly weaker ^[3][4], and the onshore yuan firmed 50 pips to 6.7377 ^[5]. Net: a targeted, sectoral reallocation is doing the work that broad easing is not.

1. Property: The Provident-Fund Pivot

• **[NEW] State Council revised the Housing Provident Fund Management Regulations:** renovation of owner-occupied housing and property-fee payments are now in the extraction list; the rent-extraction wage-income threshold is removed ^[1]. The Caixin explainer and the joint ministerial Q&A are framed in their headlines as a retooling of a 10-trillion-yuan balance toward consumption support, but only the headlines appear in the feed (no body text) ^[6][7].
• **[ESCALATED] Hong Kong property names extended gains:** Jinhui Holdings +8% led; Ronxin China +5%; Agile Group, C&D International, China Jinmao all +3%+; China Overseas, China Resources Land, Greentown, Yuexiu and others followed ^[2]. The wire cited the NBS 1–7 read — new-home sales -13.1% y/y, narrowing 0.5 ppt from 1–6 — and flagged the "Golden September-Silver October" window for marginal repair ^[2].
• **[NEW] A-share property leaders:** TeFa Services, Zhongtian Services, Worldunion, and Binjiang Real Estate followed the limit-up names higher ^[1].

2. Cross-Asset Read

• **[NEW] Onshore yuan:** closed the 16:30 fix at 6.7377, up 50 pips on the day; the central parity rate set at 6.7854, raised 51 pips from 6.7905; the prior official close was 6.7427 and the prior night-session close 6.7454 ^[5][8]. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, said the dollar index breaking below 100 and a resilient July export tape are the two anchors; he sees a "rise-then-stabilize" path for the full year, with two-way swings more likely than a repeat of H1's brisk appreciation ^[9].
• **[NEW] Treasury futures closed mixed-to-lower:** 30Y main -0.27%, 10Y -0.04%, 5Y -0.03%, 2Y flat, after opening uniformly weaker (30Y -0.05%, 10Y -0.02%, 5Y -0.02%, 2Y -0.01%) ^[3][4].
• **[NEW] PBOC operations:** 7-day reverse repo ran at zero for the seventh straight business day; 327.4 billion yuan of overnight reverse repo was injected against 469.7 billion yuan maturing — a net drain of 142.3 billion yuan ^[10][11].

3. Structural Reform: Healthcare and Labor

• **[NEW] National Healthcare Security Administration released the 15th Five-Year Medical Security Plan:** drops the legacy KPI focus on coverage-rate and fund-balance growth in favor of system quality, with the headline target keeping participation at ~95% ^[12]. Five livelihood deliverables are named — participation consolidation, drug-purchase information, primary-care support, cross-province direct settlement, and personal medical-insurance cloud ^[12]. A companion document pins the bulk-procurement agenda: the winning bid price becomes the reimbursement benchmark, with local-procurement national rollouts and direct settlement between the medical-insurance fund and manufacturers to be explored ^[13].
• **[NEW] July unemployment by age group:** 16–24 (excl. students) 17.9%, 25–29 (excl. students) 7.2%, 30–59 (excl. students) 3.9% ^[14]. The 16–24 print is the structural anchor for tomorrow's labor reading.
• **[ONGOING] Minimum wage adjustments:** Guangdong effective Sep 1 — tier-1 (Guangzhou 2,680 yuan/month; Shenzhen 2,700 yuan/month) with 25.4 yuan/hour part-time; tier-2 (Zhuhai, Foshan, Dongguan, Zhongshan) 2,300 yuan/month and 21.9 yuan/hour; tier-3 (15 other prefecture cities) 2,040 yuan/month and 20.2 yuan/hour ^[15]. Shanxi effective Oct 1 — three tiers at 2,350/2,250/2,150 yuan per month, with full-time hourlies 13.5/12.9/12.4 and part-time hourlies 25.3/24.2 (third-tier part-time hourly not present in the feed — treat as unconfirmed) ^[15].

4. Trade, Competition, Consumption

• **[NEW] South Korea launched an anti-dumping probe on Chinese ethyl acetate (HS 2915.31.0000):** dumping period Jan 1 – Dec 31, 2025; injury period Jan 1, 2023 – Dec 31, 2025; preliminary ruling expected within three months of case opening, extendable by up to two months ^[16].
• **[ONGOING] Anti-monopoly:** SAMR closed 13 monopoly-agreement and abuse-of-dominance cases through July; continued sector sweeps in utilities, internet platforms, APIs, and driving schools; issued guidelines on public-utility antitrust and an internet-platform compliance guide ^[17].
• **[ONGOING] Consumption "combo punch":** new consumer vouchers, the housing-fund tweak, and "three-new" consumption pilots; analysts cited by Shanghai Securities News see a tilt from "broad-flood" to "targeted-drip" policy and call for marginal pickup in H2 with policy room remaining ^[18]. Xinhua Department Store told investors it is tracking the nine-ministry county-market consumption guidance and upgrading county-level stores ^[19]. Xinhua also flagged summer experiential-consumption demand release ^[20].
• **[NEW] Regional data:** Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei H1 2026 combined GDP +5.1% y/y per People's Daily ^[21]. Other People's Daily items (Qinghai finance, the autonomous region's 18-measure "token economy" package, the representatives' contribution piece) appear in the feed as headlines only, with no figures attached ^[22][23][24].

5. Steel and the Falsifiable Test

• **[NEW] Steel production:** early-August daily output at major mills hit 1.973 million tons, up 5.8% MoM, with pig-iron daily output tracking up; the China Iron and Steel Association tied the print to recovering blast-furnace restarts after maintenance, and called for stronger Q4 demand from accelerated special-bond issuance, infrastructure build-out, and autos/machinery seasonal restocking ^[25].
• **Falsifiable test:** the property rally is a reallocation, not a reflation. The August new-home sales tape (mid-September release) and Q4 special-bond issuance pace will tell whether the provident-fund pivot can hold ^[2][25]. The medical-insurance plan implementation and the next youth-unemployment print are the two structural data points to watch.
• **Source quality control:** the Caixin provident-fund explainer and the two-ministry Q&A appear in the feed as headlines only ^[6][7]; the People's Daily items on Qinghai finance, the autonomous region's "token economy" measures, and the representatives' contribution piece are likewise headline-only ^[22][23][24]; Wang Qing's "rise-then-stabilize" view is a single-analyst call, not consensus ^[9]. Treat each as policy direction, not magnitude.