〔Day Digest〕Securities Stamp Tax +99.2% as MOF Maps 30T-Yuan Fiscal Plan and H2 Incremental Readiness; FDI -6.2% Y/Y Hides High-Tech +32.7% — Outbound Rules, First Cross-Border Delivery Reshape the Open Architecture

0. Daily Arc

A single, dense news day centered on MOF's fiscal signaling: Liao Min announced a 30-trillion-yuan-plus expenditure budget, an 11.89-trillion-yuan new-bond quota (a record), and a fourth consecutive year of central-to-local transfers above 10.42 trillion yuan, while flagging H2 incremental policy readiness ^[1][2]. Yet activity indicators lead the data — securities stamp tax +99.2% y/y, high-tech FDI +32.7%, July electricity above 1 trillion kWh — and the NDRC's revised outbound investment rules, plus the INE's first cross-border delivery, point to a deepening open architecture ^{[3][4][5][6][7][8]}. Bond futures closed softer across the curve in sub-5bp moves ^[9].

1. Fiscal Stance — MOF Press Conference

• **[NEW] Deputy Minister Liao Min, MOF:** 2026 fiscal scale — expenditure budget above 30 trillion yuan for the first time, new government bonds 11.89 trillion yuan (record), central-to-local transfer 10.42 trillion yuan (fourth consecutive year above 10 trillion) ^[1]. On incremental policy: Liao Min — H2 incremental measures to be released as macro situation requires ^[1][2].
• **[NEW] Demand-stimulus upgrade, effective Aug 1:** broader interest-subsidy scope, more handling institutions, higher limits; credit-card installments folded in ^[1]. The three-vector summary: broaden subsidy scope, increase handling institutions, raise quota limits ^[1].
• **[NEW] 15th FYP fiscal direction:** Liao Min — to build a modern fiscal macro-control mechanism with precision-targeted policies, diversified tools, strong guidance, and high coordination ^[10]; clean up stock tax preferences and local fiscal subsidy negative list ^[11]; dynamic adjustment of import provisional tariffs per Cheng Zhijun, head of the International Economic Relations Department ^[12]; long-run consumer capacity via social security and income-distribution reform ^[13].
• **[NEW] NFRA non-auto insurance governance plan, 15th FYP:** disorderly competition to be effectively rectified; market system to be standardized, specialized, and refined ^[14].
• **[ONGOING] Trade-in policy:** 178 million person-times this year (single-source People's Daily aggregator) ^[15].

2. Investment Flows — FDI Headline vs High-Tech Mix

• **[NEW] Jan-July FDI, MOFCOM:** 438.33 billion yuan, -6.2% y/y; 37,711 new foreign-invested enterprises, +4.4% ^[6]. Manufacturing FDI 109.43 billion yuan, services 319.95 billion ^[6].
• **[NEW] High-tech mix:** actual high-tech FDI 182.31 billion yuan, +32.7%, 41.6% of total (+12.2 pp y/y) ^[6]. Sub-categories: R&D and design services +72.1%, sci-tech achievement transformation services +62.2%, electronics and communications equipment manufacturing +39.9% ^[6].
• **[NEW] Source-country split:** Saudi Arabia +343.7%, France +36.1%, South Korea +15.8% (including free-port data) ^[6]. The "minus 6.2%" headline and the "plus 32.7%" high-tech line are the same dataset — print both, don't average them ^[6].

3. Market Mechanics — Bond Futures, Stamp Tax, Property

• **[NEW] Bond futures closed lower:** 30Y -0.03% to 115.860 yuan, 10Y -0.02% to 109.455 yuan, 5Y -0.03% to 106.555 yuan, 2Y -0.01% to 102.626 yuan ^[9]. Moves are sub-5bp — treat as a curve-bearish-flattening signal, not a flow story ^[9].
• **[NEW] MOF revenue, 1-7 month:** public budget revenue 14.3696 trillion yuan, +5.8%; tax revenue 11.8381 trillion, +6.7%; central +9.1%, local +3.3% ^[5]. Securities stamp tax 186.4 billion yuan, +99.2% (total stamp tax 353 billion, +38%) ^[5]. Read the stamp-tax print as a market-activity proxy, not a yield read.
• **[NEW] CITIC Securities:** regional development to concentrate on tier-1 and select tier-2 cities ^[16]. Cites Shanghai's 9.467-trillion-yuan provident-fund balance (+9.5% y/y by end-2025) and 65.5% personal loan rate — below national level — as the marginal buyer ^[16]. Shanghai's Aug 20 property package widened provident-fund use, cut second-home down payments outside the outer ring, and pushed housing-voucher resettlement ^[16].
• **[NEW] Land auction, Wuhan Donghu New Tech Zone:** two plots cleared for 835 million yuan; Kangqiao Street residential went to Shiyan Hancheng Real Estate after 122 rounds at a 49% premium (floor 14,738 yuan/sqm); Changling residential went to Wuhan Gehua Group at base 93 million yuan (floor 4,978 yuan/sqm) ^[17].
• **[NEW] July electricity:** whole-society consumption above 1 trillion kWh again, historic high (single-source People's Daily aggregator) ^[8].

4. Open Architecture — Outbound Rules, Cross-Border Delivery, Lingang

• **[NEW] NDRC revised Outbound Investment Management Measures consultation:** improves the major adverse situation reporting system against discriminatory measures requiring tech, data, equity, or asset divestment; adds an annual outbound-investment information report ^[3][4]. Existing channels — QDII, Stock Connect, Cross-boundary Wealth Management Connect — explicitly preserved ^[4].
• **[NEW] First cross-border futures delivery, INE (Shanghai International Energy Exchange):** TSR20 rubber, 600 tons, 8.84 million yuan, generated at the Thai off-exchange warehouse by Thai Hua Rubber Public Co.; physical delivery scheduled at Laem Chabang port ^[7]. First batch of participants covers domestic and foreign entities plus overseas subsidiaries of futures firms ^[7].
• **[NEW] Shanghai Lingang Special Area, 14th FYP wrap:** 60 first-of-kind reform cases; import/export +35.1% average annual; cumulative actual FDI above $7.3 billion; 2025 offshore trade $32.7 billion; international reinsurance registration center premium above 10 billion yuan last year; Yangshan LNG and methanol bunkering global top 3 ^[18].
• **[NEW] Lingang next leg:** accelerate the pilot for cross-border reinsurance premium income overseas investment facilitation; research new risk-transfer tools — per Tao Changsheng, Shanghai Municipal Party Committee Financial Office deputy director ^[19].
• **[NEW] SAMR anti-involution cases:** six operator-concentration review examples, including Tencent's Ximalaya acquisition and TCL Zhonghuan's Yidao New Energy acquisition ^[20].
• **[NEW] PBOC + SAMR Announcement No. 19 of 2026:** commemorative coins (ordinary and precious-metal) and PBOC-stopped-circulation RMB may be traded subject to disclosure and anti-money-laundering rules; ordinary commemorative coins cannot be traded before public exchange ^[21].

5. What Decides Next

• **CIFIT catalyst, Aug 25 3pm:** State Council Information Office briefing on the 26th CIFIT, with MOFCOM Vice Minister Ling Ji — also deputy international trade negotiator — and Fujian Vice Governor Zhao Zenglian ^[22]. Watch whether incremental fiscal detail or new pilot scope lands here.
• **Sourcing flags:** items ^[8], ^[23], ^[15] are People's Daily aggregator (Google News) headlines without underlying data — treat as single-source until confirmed ^[8][23][15]. The Lingang figures are city-government sourced from a single press conference ^[18]. The "AI-era private economy" discussion ^[23] is a headline-level meeting report, not a policy item.
• **Open items to watch:** whether the 30-trillion-yuan fiscal envelope and the 11.89-trillion-yuan bond quota are absorbed by sub-national execution — the NDRC's Aug 20 "Two Heavy" construction meeting with Vice Chairman Yue Xiuhu and six provinces (Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Guangdong) is the proximate channel ^[24][25][1].