〔Overnight Brief〕Property 'Super Package' Lifts Completed-Home Share to 35.9% and Local Surtax Merges Three Levies Into One as Jan-Jul FAI Deepens to -6.7%: Monday's Aug PMI and Friday's NFP Print the Demand Verdict

0. Weekly Arc

The week's center of gravity is a 48-hour policy landing: the property "super package" and the Local Surtax Law consultation draft both dropped on Aug 27-28 ^[1][2][3][4]. The completed-home model is no longer a slogan - the pre-sale share climbed to 35.9% in 2025 from 12.7% in 2020 ^[4]. Yet the demand side has not cooperated: Jan-Jul FAI dropped 6.7% y/y with the decline widening ^[5], July auto imports fell 13% to 43k units ^[6], and July official manufacturing PMI printed 49.2%, sub-50 ^[7]. The week pivots on two prints: Monday's August official PMI and Friday's U.S. NFP, with a SCO heads-of-state summit in Bishkek (Aug 31-Sep 1) and a G20 finance ministers meeting in Asheville, NC, hosted by Bessent, running in parallel ^[7][8].

1. Policy Narrative

• **[NEW] Four-ministry property "super package":** Aug 28 documents from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD), Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), the PBoC, the National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA), and the CSRC target three pillars - sales system reform (new land prioritizes completed-home sales, pre-sale threshold raised to main structure topping-out), credit restructuring, and capital market support for a new development model ^[1][2][3]. Wang Shao, President of the Guangdong Real Estate Association, framed it as "classification optimization, gradual implementation," warning the completed-home model will "substantially raise industry entry barriers" and force a reconstruction of the traditional high-turnover development logic ^[2]. Mortgage terms: maximum 40 years, debt-service ratio cap raised to 60%, with mortgage disbursement delayed until completion filing - a clear lengthening of developer cash cycles ^[4][9].
• **[NEW] Local Surtax Law consultation draft:** Merges the urban maintenance tax, education surcharge, and local education surcharge into a single Local Surtax, with rates unified to an 11-13% bracket set by province-level people's congresses ^[4]. The 2025 combined revenue of the three was 913.4 billion yuan, ~7.7% of local general public budget revenue; the weighted-average rate of ~11.6% sits near the mid-point, leaving tax burden roughly neutral ^[4]. Framed as one of four "increasing local autonomous fiscal capacity" directions from the Third Plenum of the 20th Central Committee ^[4].
• **[ESCALATED] State Council H2 work report:** Delivered by NDRC Deputy Director Wang Changlin to the 24th session of the 14th NPC Standing Committee on Aug 25-28, emphasizing timely incremental policies, counter-cyclical adjustment, demand expansion, supply optimization, deeper SOE reform, and broader private investment ^[10]. National Information Center researcher Wei Qijia called activating policy efficiency and shifting "momentum toward new, structure toward optimal" the top priority for H2 ^[10].
• **[ONGOING] Investment stabilization push:** The NDRC convened its 6th investment-stabilization meeting in half a month on Aug 28, focusing on new policy-backed financial tools, the "six networks" build-out, "two heavy" project advancement, and private investment promotion ^[5].

2. Key Data and Market Read

• **[NEW] Jan-Jul FAI:** 26.0328 trillion yuan, -6.7% y/y, with the decline widening ^[5]. NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui attributed part of the drag to regional heatwaves and storms plus external complexity, but framed the domestic transition as the lever still in policymakers' hands ^[5].
• **[NEW] July auto imports:** 43k units, -13% y/y; Jan-Jul 240k units, -11% y/y ^[6]. July retail of imported cars fell 40% to 27k units - a "very bad" July print per analyst Cui Dongshu ^[6]. Top origins: Japan 23,587 / Germany 7,479 / U.S. 4,855 units ^[6].
• **[NEW] Bank NIMs:** 19 of 42 A-share listed banks saw NIM rise in H1, 1 flat; among 25 with comparable data, 9 NIMs rose q/q and 6 held ^[11]. Big Six: ICBC 1.29% (flat q/q), BoCom 1.23% (flat), ABC 1.28% (+2bp), CCB 1.37% (+1bp), BOC 1.27% (+1bp); PSBC's H1 NIM fell 3bp h/h and a further 2bp q/q (source figure truncated) ^[11]. Driver: liability-side cost control plus dense 3-year time deposit maturities; the tailwind fades into H2 ^[11].
• **[NEW] QDII quota expansion:** $6.84B new quota brings cumulative to $183.009B; two batches in 2026 totaled $12.14B, exceeding full-year 2025 ^[12]. Near half of QDII funds are in limited-purchase or suspended status; some index products have single-day limits compressed to under 100 yuan, with a few opening at just 5-10 yuan ^[12].
• **[ONGOING] Local debt Q3 plan:** 33 provinces disclosed 2.42727 trillion yuan of Q3 issuance - new special bonds 1.33585 trillion, new general bonds 282.09 billion, refinancing bonds 809.33 billion ^[13].
• **[ONGOING] Bond market:** Treasury futures continued to adjust this week (Aug 24-30); Monday saw a PBoC 7-day reverse repo net injection of 340 billion yuan and a steep equity sell-off, with Treasury futures oscillating higher on the back of risk-off flow ^[14].

3. The Week Ahead

• **[NEW] Monday Aug 31:** China August official manufacturing PMI (July was 49.2%, sub-50); Germany August CPI flash; U.S. August Dallas Fed business activity ^[7][8]. G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting opens in Asheville, NC, hosted by Bessent - framed as the U.S.'s first major return to the G20 process after skipping last year's South Africa-led track ^[7][8].
• **[NEW] Tuesday Sep 1:** SCO heads-of-state council meets in Bishkek under Kyrgyz presidency; China August RatingDog manufacturing PMI; Eurozone August CPI flash + July unemployment rate; U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI; July JOLTs; July construction spending; NIO and Dell earnings (Dell after U.S. close) ^[7][8].
• **[NEW] Wednesday Sep 2:** U.S. August ADP employment; July factory orders; Canada rate decision with Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers; New Zealand rate decision; Broadcom earnings (after U.S. close) ^[7][8].
• **[NEW] Thursday Sep 3:** China August RatingDog services PMI; weekly U.S. initial jobless claims; Swiss August CPI; Eurozone July PPI ^[8].
• **[NEW] Friday Sep 4:** U.S. August nonfarm payrolls - July printed -23k (weakest of the year), August consensus +55k ^[7]. The read is whether July's shock was a one-off or the start of a softening trend, and what it implies for the Fed's September decision.

4. Cross-Border and Tail Risks

• **[NEW] China-Germany cooperation signal:** A forum in Nuremberg on Aug 29, co-organized by the Chinese Consulate in Frankfurt, the German Table Tennis Bundesliga, and the German Hidden Champions Academy, drew positive public comments from both sides ^[15][16]. Speakers: Chinese Consul General in Frankfurt Huang Yueyang; German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) President Marcel Fratzscher; former German Defense Minister Rudolf Scharping; Walter Döring, founder of the Hidden Champions Academy; Opel/Stellantis Germany CEO Florian Huettel. Automotive cooperation was a featured topic, with Huettel calling for partnership over pure competition ^[16].
• **[ONGOING] Hormuz shipping risk:** Transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted; U.S.-Iran statements diverge; energy and shipping risk premiums may stay elevated, with tanker rerouting and insurance costs still a weight on the market ^[9].
• **[NEW] 2026 Digital Economy Expo:** Reflects the "15th Five-Year Plan" digital economy blueprint, per Xinhua framing ^[17].
• **[ONGOING] MMT debate:** An op-ed by Qin Shuo frames the MMT-style "fiscal issues, central bank prints" debate against the current PBoC Law's prohibition on direct government overdraft and on purchasing/underwriting government bonds, leaving the central bank to operate in secondary markets only ^[18]. Source quality: opinion piece, single source, treat as a marker of the policy debate rather than a policy signal.
• **Source quality control:** ^[15] and ^[16] carry the same Nuremberg forum content; treat as one source. ^[17] and ^[19] are Xinhua aggregator items with no original data; cite for framing only. ^[7] and ^[8] are calendar/look-ahead pieces; quote any specific forecast as a band.