〔Day Digest〕August Manufacturing PMI Climbs to 49.8 with Both Sides in Expansion, 7M SOE Profits Up 0.6% on 2.4% Revenue Drop, While US Trade Friction Tops Global for 7th Month — 30Y Future Bid, 15B Yuan Land Deal Frame the Read

0. Daily Arc

August's macro picture opened as a soft-hard split: the official manufacturing PMI climbed 0.6 points to 49.8, with both supply and demand returning to expansion ^[1][2], while 7M state-owned enterprise profits grew just 0.6% on a 2.4% revenue drop and a 5.0% tax contribution ^[3]. Treasury futures closed mostly higher, with the 30Y +0.12% at 115.940 yuan ^[4]. The policy tape tilted toward opening-up and senior consumption, and a 15.019 billion yuan Shanghai Putuo land deal tested developer appetite, even as the US-led trade-friction rank held the global top for a seventh straight month ^{[5][6][7][8][9]}.

1. Macro Data

• **[NEW] August manufacturing PMI, 49.8:** rose 0.6 points; both supply and demand shifted to expansion per the National Bureau of Statistics reading carried by Caixin and People's Daily ^[1][2]. The print is still sub-50, a single data point, and the two wires are duplicative of the same NBS release.
• **[NEW] 7M SOE results:** operating revenue 46,446.64 billion yuan, -2.4% y/y; total profit 2,508.99 billion yuan, +0.6% y/y; taxes payable 3,661.56 billion yuan, +5.0% y/y per the Ministry of Finance ^[3]. Falling revenue with marginal profit growth and a rising tax take is the read worth flagging.
• **[ONGOING] 7M B&R exhibition pipeline:** the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade approved 976 outbound exhibition projects to 48 B&R countries, 67 organizing units, planned area 599,000 sqm; 347 implemented, 126,600 sqm actual area, ~9,000 firms ^[10].

2. Policy and Opening Up

• **[NEW] Beijing 15th Five-Year opening-up plan:** the Beijing Municipal Commerce Bureau issued the high-level opening-up plan with 2030 goals to build a global digital-economy demonstration zone, global pharma/health innovation source, international modern service industry cluster, and a two-way open high ground ^[5]. The plan implements the cross-border services trade negative list, expands computer-information and business-services exports, and advances the Beijing International Commercial Arbitration Center and the Beijing International Legal-and-Commercial Integration Demonstration Zone ^[6].
• **[NEW] Senior consumption upgrade:** the Ministry of Commerce and 7 departments issued opinions on expanding and upgrading goods consumption, broadening brain-computer and AI applications in elderly products and rehab devices, and pushing exoskeleton robots, electric wheelchairs, and smart mattresses into elderly households ^[7].
• **[NEW] Agricultural law revision:** completed per the Xinhua authoritative brief ^[11].
• **[NEW] Xinjiang strategic fulcrum:** Xinhua positioned Xinjiang as a strategic fulcrum for the new development pattern ^[12].
• **[NEW] Shihezi green electricity moat:** Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps 8th Division Shihezi City promoted green power at 0.25-0.32 yuan/kWh as a cost advantage for industrial attraction, targeting new storage, green hydrogen-ammonia-methanol, and green computing ^[13].

3. Trade and External Pressure

• **[ONGOING] US trade friction still on top:** the CCPIT June global trade-friction index held at 102, in the high range; US measures involving amounts ranked first globally for a 7th straight month on 232 tariffs, 301 investigations, unilateral sanctions, and export controls ^[8]. Sectoral conflict concentrated in electronics, chemicals, pharma, and machinery, with electronics the lead friction index ^[8].
• **[NEW] Foreign Ministry on Bessent:** spokesperson Guo Jiakun said China does not deliberately pursue a trade surplus and opposes any form of unilateral tariff measures, responding to US Treasury Secretary Bessent's G20 call to revisit China terms over a $1.2 trillion surplus ^[14].
• **[NEW] Ding Xueqiang to Russia:** Politburo Standing Committee member and Vice Premier Ding Xueqiang will travel to Russia September 2-4 for the 11th Eastern Economic Forum, plus the 13th China-Russia Investment Cooperation Committee, the 23rd Energy Cooperation Committee, and the 8th China-Russia Energy Business Forum ^[15].
• **[NEW] Xinjiang border crossings:** entries/exits passed 3.53 million as of August 30, +28.2% y/y; foreign entries/exits 1.607 million, +28.3% y/y; 647,000 entered under visa-free or temporary permits ^[16].
• **[NEW] Qingdao SCO demonstration zone:** international road transport goods exceeded 15,000 tons cumulatively; TIR trucks reach Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in about 7 days, roughly half the rail time per Transfar SCO (Qingdao) International Trading general manager Zhang Quanwen ^[17].
• **[NEW] Bank of Communications x NetsUnion:** signed a cooperation memorandum in Shanghai on August 28 to launch cross-border RMB business, covering joint product innovation, industry research, and AI application studies ^[18].

4. Market Read

• **[NEW] Treasury futures close mixed-higher:** 30Y main +0.12% at 115.940 yuan, 10Y +0.03% at 109.335 yuan, 5Y +0.01% at 106.425 yuan, 2Y -0.01% at 102.566 yuan ^[4]. The 2Y dip is the lone bear; the rest of the curve firmer.
• **[NEW] Shanghai land auction:** China Shipping bid 15.019 billion yuan for the Putuo Zhenru plot (residential/commercial/office, 119,160 sqm land area, 396,954 sqm planned GFA, 37,835 yuan/sqm starting comprehensive floor price); Guomao & Singliv took the Songjiang Sijing plot at 582 million yuan; two plots total 15.601 billion yuan ^[9].
• **[NEW] CMB NIM:** at the H1 results call, China Merchants Bank Vice President and Board Secretary Peng Jiawen said the worst NIM-decline period has passed and the bank will strive for stability this year; H1 net interest spread 1.77%, NIM 1.83%, -2bp and -5bp y/y respectively; H1 interest income 172.73 billion yuan, -2.42% y/y, with loan interest income 111.947 billion yuan, -5.99% y/y ^[19]. The 2bp/5bp y/y compression and the -5.99% loan-interest print are the figures that matter.
• **[NEW] Shenzhen old renovation:** a single building in the Longgang Nanlian Simple No.1/No.2/Huanglongpo urban renewal unit was removed from the plan, with the unit's approved demolition area falling from 286,311.1 to 286,224.6 sqm — flagged by Gelonghui as a signal that the get-rich-via-old-renovation era is ending ^[20]. Single-building removal is a new mechanism versus prior project-wide removals.
• **[NEW] Shanghai rural revitalization index:** 2025 total index 84.4, first nationally for the 4th straight year, +3.9 from 2024; Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Beijing, Tianjin ranked 2-5 with 81.2, 80.9, 78.7, 78.4 per the Shanghai Municipal Agriculture and Rural Affairs Committee ^[21]. Shanghai's life-affluence sub-index rose 10.1 to 92.6, the largest gain among six sub-indices.
• **[ONGOING] Bank NIM seminar:** a 2026 bank pricing and NIM management seminar was held per People's Daily, with the CMB readout aligning with the industry theme ^[22][19].
• **[ONGOING] Real estate presale funds:** Caixin explored how trillions of yuan in delayed presale receipts are restructuring developer funding chains ^[23]. Single-source feature; headline figure not carried in the dispatch.

5. What Decides Next

• The PMI crossed into expansion-supply-and-demand territory at 49.8 but remains sub-50; the falsification test is the September PMI plus September trade and credit data ^[1][2].
• Source quality: the PMI, 7M SOE, and Beijing plan are all government-issued and primary ^{[5][6][3][1][2]}; the CCPIT trade-friction release is institutional, with the 102 index and 7-month US-lead drawn from a single press conference ^[8]; the Ding Xueqiang travel, the senior-consumption opinions, the Shanghai land auction, and the Shihezi green-power pitch are single-source official or press dispatches ^{[7][13][15][9]}.
• Contradiction worth holding: 7M SOE profit grew +0.6% while revenue fell -2.4%, with taxes up +5.0% — a mix the headline PMI expansion does not resolve ^[3][1].