〔Day Digest〕Warsh at Jackson Hole Tilts the Curve Hawkish; Lithium Draws 9 Weeks to 78,800 t, Zinc Adds 3.01% on $200.96/t LME Back, Tin Caps at 421,250 yuan/t - Front-End Pressure vs Physical Tightness

0. Weekly Arc

• **[ONGOING] Hawkish macro overlay:** Warsh, the new Fed chair, used Jackson Hole to lift 9-month hike odds back above 50%, while US Q2 GDP final at 1.48% q/q and July core PCE at 3.3% y/y kept the stagflation read live ^[1]. Even with July durable goods at +1.07% m/m and +11.95% y/y, the curve moved on the rate signal, not the activity data ^[1]. August S&P Global services PMI at 56.8 and composite at 56.0 - the highest since April 2022 - did not change the front-end message ^[1]. Net: a hawkish macro tape with physical markets still tight on a stock-by-stock basis ^[1][2].

1. Macro Overlay - Warsh at Jackson Hole

• **[ESCALATED] Fed signal:** Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks were called hawkish by multiple desks, lifting 9-month hike odds but stopping short of explicit guidance; the September FOMC remains the main uncertainty ^[1][3].
• **[NEW] US data cluster, mixed:** Q2 GDP final +1.48% q/q (vs Q1's 2.1% q/q), July core PCE 3.3% y/y (vs 2% target), personal income +0.4% m/m, spending +0.2% m/m, durable goods +1.07% m/m and +11.95% y/y ^[1]. August S&P Global mfg PMI prelim 53.2 (from 53.9), services 56.8, composite 56.0 ^[1].
• **[ONGOING] China side:** July official mfg PMI 49.2%, second consecutive month in contraction, leaving the demand side with little offset ^[1].
• **[ONGOING] (thin sourcing) US-Iran:** "most subtle easing signs since the US-Iran standoff" but Hormuz transit unresolved; flagged single-source via the Everbright copper monthly ^[1].

2. Lithium - 9-Week Draw Defies the Hawkish Front End

• **[NEW] Inventory, accelerated draw:** SMM major-sample inventory fell 7,600 tons w/w to 78,800 tons, the ninth consecutive week of accelerated destocking ^[2]. Nanhua's Yu Weihan framed the same "social de-stack vs warehouse warrant build" split, leaving price upside capped without a physical-tightness confirmation ^[4].
• **[NEW] Supply, modestly higher:** weekly lithium carbonate output rose 801 tons to 23,808 tons; spodumene route +234 tons to 12,490 tons, lepidolite -150 tons to 2,612 tons, salt lake +835 tons to 5,646 tons, recycled -118 tons to 3,060 tons ^[5].
• **[NEW] Downstream, strong:** ternary cathode weekly output +377 tons to 21,002 tons, LFP weekly +3,298 tons to 130,280 tons; September China lithium-battery total production scheduled at ~332 GWh, +9.2% m/m ^[5][2].
• **[ONGOING] Catalyst watch:** China Securities (relayed by 36Kr) cited 150,000 yuan/t as the restock trigger, with peak-season procurement expected to lift spot ^[2]; Nanhua flags the social-vs-warrant split as the swing variable ^[4].

3. Aluminum and Alumina - Supply Restarts Cap the Bid

• **[NEW] Alumina, supply up:** August metallurgical alumina output seen at 7.53 million tons (+1% m/m, -2.6% y/y), operating capacity 87.60 million tons; overseas EGA Al Taweelah restart now at 50% ^[6]. China Futures (CFC) sees domestic new capacity lifting alumina to 98.25 million tons ^[7].
• **[ESCALATED] Russia flag:** "200 million tons of Rusal capacity under consideration for cut" - if it materializes, the overseas alumina balance tightens; flagged single-source via the CFC aluminum weekly ^[7].
• **[NEW] Electrolytic aluminum, flat-to-up:** August operating capacity steady at 44.30 million tons (CFC: 45.481 million tons), production 3.90 million tons (+0.6% m/m, +2.7% y/y), molten-aluminum ratio 78.5%; EGA Al Taweelah 25% of 1,262 cells restarted, faster than expected ^[6][7].
• **[NEW] Downstream, soft:** August aluminum downstream avg operating rate 60.1% (-1.9 pp m/m); plate/strip 69.08%, foil 70.38%, profile 51.16% (-2.36 pp), cable 62.36% (-4.16 pp), recycled alloy 49.46% (-2.02 pp); aluminum bar processing fees down 60-180 yuan/t ^[6].
• **[ONGOING] Technical:** Fanwei weekly reads non-ferrous mostly bullish, alumina bearish, SHFE aluminum multi-period indicators divergent, range-bound near-term ^[8].

4. Copper, Tin, Zinc, Lead, Nickel - Mixed Reads

• **[ESCALATED] Tin, range-bound with downside risk:** SHFE closed 423,870 yuan/t, -1.10% w/w; range 419,420-427,110; SMM 1# tin 421,250 yuan/t, LME 0-3 at -$331/t per GF Futures daily vs -$359/t at the Nanhua weekly print - i.e. the back continued to flatten through the session ^[9][3]. Three-location inventory +38 tons to 8,351 tons, SHFE inventory +363 tons to 6,381 tons, import profit 2,311 yuan/t ^[3]. Support at ~420,000 yuan/t from the Yinman Mining shutdown and Myanmar July tin ore imports -27% m/m at 4,570 tons ^[3].
• **[NEW] Zinc, LME back drives SHFE:** Nanhua's Fu Xiaoyan saw SHFE +3.01% w/w to 26,485 yuan/t; range 25,905-26,485; LME +2.62% w/w; LME 0-3 still at $200.96/t premium ^[10]. Seven-location inventory only -500 tons to 269,900 tons, galvanizing to 51.63%, die-casting 46.77%, Shanghai spot premium widened ^[10]. Domestic concentrate TC at -1,850 yuan/metal ton, smelter loss underpinning mid-term cut risk ^[10]. CITIC Futures desk, by contrast, reads international zinc concentrate TC as holding steady in the same window - thinner weekly ^[11].
• **[NEW] Lead, maintenance + peak season:** SHFE +0.71% w/w to 16,245 yuan/t; three-province primary lead operating rate -1.9 pp to 63.81%, five-location social inventory -6,400 tons to 69,300 tons, lead-acid battery operating rate +1.56 pp to 67.42%; recycled lead flat at 40.3%, major delivery brand factory inventory +200 tons to 17,300 tons ^[12]. 16,400 yuan/t is the breakout line; depends on social drawdown and import flow ^[12].
• **[ESCALATED] Copper, strong physical vs weak macro:** Peru June copper output 218,200 tons, -4.7% y/y; concentrate TC continuing to fall; CFC (analysts Wang Xianwei, Liu Chengxin) framed it as "strong reality, weak expectations" with US tariff flows still drawing metal away from non-US warehouses ^[13]. CITIC Futures desk confirms copper weekly output flat, sulfuric-acid price decline pressuring smelter margins on top of low TC ^[11].
• **[NEW] Nickel, mixed:** LME inventory -126 tons; nickel-iron inventory +10% w/w to 111,900 nickel tons; MHP discount coefficient weakened, spot firmer; NEV Aug 1-23 retail 614,000 units (-12% y/y), wholesale 714,000 (+5% y/y) ^[14].

5. Earnings Tape and Structural Sourcing

• **[NEW] H1 non-ferrous earnings:** 12,362 above-scale enterprises, H1 revenue 5.77 trillion yuan (+21.7% y/y), profit 418.39 billion yuan (+94.0% y/y) per the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association ^[15].
• **[NEW] H1 basic chemicals:** 282 listed companies, revenue 1.22 trillion yuan (+11.9% y/y), net profit 80.98 billion yuan (+86% y/y) per Wind as of 2026-08-30 23:00 ^[15].
• **[NEW] Zambia:** the majority state-owned mining investor is weighing a share sale in the entity that holds minority interests in most of Zambia's largest copper mines, per its CEO ^[16].
• **[ESCALATED] (thin sourcing) Nickel slag:** "millions of tons of nickel slag 'black mountain'" pressuring nickel-iron leaders on waste disposal, flagged single-source via the Caixin feature ^[17].
• **[NEW] Contract framework:** Jingyi Corp signed 2026 copper cathode purchase framework agreements with Minshangxing and Tongling Nonferrous Shanghai International Trade, valid 2026-01-01 to 12-31 ^[18].
• **[ONGOING] Cross-asset tape:** Huatai Tianji mid-cap weekly flags copper and tin up, zinc and nickel down; PTA at historical low operating rates, PX processing fee recovering; new energy vehicle penetration high, ICE weak; aviation passenger volume rising, port throughput rebounding sharply ^[19].