〔Day Digest〕30Y Futures +0.30% on PBOC 'Drain-Long, Expand-Short' Tilt; Solar Tops Coal 1,286 vs 1,285 GW; Canada Tire Probe Caps Session

0. Daily Arc

September opened on a structural energy flip and a curve-steepening trade. Solar PV installed capacity hit 1,286 GW, edging past coal at 1,285 GW for the first time ^[1], while the 30Y treasury futures contract closed +0.30% after midday had it at +0.20% ^[2][3]. The PBOC accelerated overnight reverse repos to 8 operations in August versus 3 in July and 2 in June, while net draining 100 billion yuan from a 500 billion yuan MLF rollover — a 'drain-long, expand-short' tilt that pulls short rates lower and steepens the curve ^[4]. The RMB midpoint firmed 19 pips to 6.7809 ^[5]. Yet trade frictions are the offset: Canada opened anti-dumping and countervailing duty probes on Chinese truck and bus tires, with detailed reasons due 9/15 ^[6]. Net: a domestic easing-and-transition story capped by a fresh external front.

1. Rates, FX and Cross-Border Flows

• **[NEW] 30Y treasury futures +0.30%** in the afternoon session, after +0.20% at midday; 10Y +0.08%, 5Y +0.07%, 2Y +0.03% ^[2][3]. Midday closes: 30Y 116.110, 10Y 109.375, 5Y 106.455, 2Y 102.582 yuan ^[3].
• **[ONGOING] PBOC 'drain-long, expand-short':** MLF net drained 100 billion yuan (500 billion injected, 600 billion matured on 8/24), ending three months of net additions ^[4]. Overnight reverse repo operations rose to 8 in August from 3 in July and 2 in June, with the first mid-month use of the tool ^[4]. The piece flags curve-steepening risk if the pattern persists, with both a direct short-end effect and a structural re-pricing channel ^[4].
• **[NEW] RMB midpoint +19 pips to 6.7809**, from 6.7828 ^[5].
• **[NEW] Southbound capital net buy 7.756 billion HKD:** Tencent 1.125 billion HKD and MINIMAX-W 763 million HKD led inflows; Meituan-W 576 million HKD and Zhipu 411 million HKD led outflows ^[7]. The MINIMAX-W ticker prints as the source shows; a cross-check is warranted ^[7].

2. Trade, Property and Labor

• **[NEW] Canada anti-dumping and countervailing duty probe** on Chinese truck and bus tires, covering customs codes 4011.20.00.13, 4011.20.00.19 and 4012.12.00.00 ^[6]. The Canada Border Services Agency will issue detailed reasons 9/15 ^[6].
• **[NEW] Three-ministry auto industry overseas competition guidelines**, advising cost-based, supply-demand-aligned pricing and compliance on parts and vehicle prices, with the goal of orderly internationalization ^[8].
• **[ONGOING] Top 100 developers 1-8 sales 2.018 trillion yuan**, with August single-month 213.3 billion yuan, down slightly from July's 217.9 billion; China Overseas Development (00688.HK) took the August sales lead ^[9]. August policy moves included Beijing cutting non-Beijing-household social security/tax requirements to 1 year inside the 5th Ring Road and raising the housing fund cap to 3.4 million yuan ^[9].
• **[NEW] Land market split:** Hangzhou Linping District residential plot, 38.94 mu, sold at the 286 million yuan floor (floor price 7,350 yuan/sqm built area) to China Communications Construction ^[10]; Nanchang Xihu District, 29.55 mu, sold at a 30.42% premium to Yuncheng Wantai Real Estate at 4.63 million yuan/mu, total 137 million yuan, floor price 6,314 yuan/sqm ^[11].
• **[NEW] Yunnan minimum wage tiered raise effective 9/1:** tier 1 (Kunming's Wuhua, Panlong, Xishan, Guandu, Chenggong, Jinning districts plus Anning and Songming county) 2,270 yuan/month and 22 yuan/hour; tier 2 2,120 yuan/month and 21 yuan/hour; tier 3 1,970 yuan/month and 20 yuan/hour ^[12]. Guangdong also lifted rates 9/1: Guangzhou tier 1 2,680 yuan/month, Shenzhen 2,700 yuan/month ^[12].
• **[NEW] Foreign individual dividend tax exemption ends 9/1:** dividends from foreign-invested enterprises now taxed at 20% under the 'interest, dividends, bonus' category ^[13]. Enterprises must withhold and remit by the 15th of the following month; if not withheld, the recipient pays by 6/30 of the next year ^[13].
• **[ESCALATED] Real estate 'new era' narrative** built around the People's Daily 'Zhongcaiwen' four-part commentary series 8/22-25, framing the sector as pivoting from a financial-and-growth story to a product-and-operations business ^[14]. The pen-name series is widely read as central economic policy signaling between the July Politburo meeting and the July data release ^[14].
• **[NEW] Tax Collection Administration Law revision** approved in principle at the 8/31 State Council executive meeting, to be submitted to the NPC Standing Committee ^[15]. China University of Political Science and Law's Shi Zhengwen called it the first major revision in over 20 years, reshaping the legal framework for new business forms ^[15].

3. Energy Transition, Industry and Fiscal Plumbing

• **[NEW] Solar PV installed capacity 1,286 GW** as of end-July, versus coal at 1,285 GW — first time solar leads the power mix ^[1]. Breakdown: centralized 704 GW, distributed 582 GW ^[1]. July new adds +13.73 GW, +43% y/y; 1-7 generation 802.4 TWh, +15.5% y/y; solar's share at 13% of total power use, +1.7pp versus full-year 2025 ^[1].
• **[NEW] Refractory iron ore breakthrough** by the Institute of Process Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, after 20+ years of work; the world's largest magnetizing-roasting project was completed and accepted 9/1 ^[16]. China consumes over half of global iron ore and runs high import dependence ^[16].
• **[NEW] National Council for Social Security Fund 2025 return 13.22%**, a 5-year high, with AUM at 3.81 trillion yuan ^[17]. Single source.
• **[NEW] Sci-tech innovation bonds outstanding 5.8+ trillion yuan**, per the 8/29 Lujiazui Finance Salon on issuance practice, market structure, credit assessment and product innovation ^[18]. Shanghai Sci-Tech Bank Deputy Governor Ao Yuxiang framed the bond push as financing the 'paradigm leap' from 'world factory' to global innovation hub ^[18].
• **[NEW] MOFCOM Asia Department Director Wang Liping** outlined a three-pronged China-ASEAN supply-chain plan at the State Council Information Office briefing: emerging-sector investment, regional connectivity ('rail-sea' and 'river-rail-sea' multimodal corridors) and digital enablement via AI, big data and IoT ^[19]. The session also featured the China-ASEAN Silk Road e-commerce and industrial-park matchmaking events ^[19].
• **[ONGOING] PMI data** signal economic activity improvement, with both production and demand recovering per People's Daily coverage ^[20][21].

4. What Decides Next

• The 9/15 Canada Border Services Agency reason statement is the binary near-term catalyst on the trade front ^[6].
• The 'drain-long, expand-short' thesis is single-source commentary; the August operational pattern is data, but the trend call is a hypothesis ^[4]. If September keeps MLF draining while lifting overnight repo frequency, the curve-steepening thesis hardens ^[4].
• The 1-7 solar install is -62% y/y off the 2025 front-loaded base, so the structural solar-leads-coal story is bigger than the cumulative print ^[1]. The +43% y/y July single-month is the cleaner data point ^[1].
• Source quality: Social Security Fund figures and the Lujiazui commentary items are single-source ^[17][18]; the MINIMAX-W ticker in the southbound flow is reported as the source prints it and warrants a cross-check ^[7].