〔Day Digest〕PBoC Trims PSL 25bp to 1.50% and Adds 700bn Yuan in Refinance Quotas, Pairing with First Central Mortgage Subsidy for Sub-1.5M-Yuan First Homes — Targeting Frame Test Starts Oct 1

0. Weekly Arc

The PBoC delivered a coordinated demand-side package: PSL rate cut 25bp, PSL collateral expanded, and 700bn yuan in new refinance quotas — paired with the central government's first mortgage interest subsidy ^[1][2]. The mechanism: policy-bank rate transmission plus fiscal interest subsidies targeted at the sub-1.5M-yuan first-home segment ^[3][4]. Local follow-through was immediate — Dongguan layered a 2% purchase subsidy and eased first-home definitions the same morning ^[5][6]. The falsification test sits in October mortgage data.

1. PBoC Package [NEW]

• **PSL rate ^[1][7][8]:** one-year PSL rate cut 25bp, from 1.75% to 1.50%, framed as alignment with the "moderately accommodative" stance set by the Politburo meeting and the State Council executive meeting.
• **PSL collateral ^{[9][1][10][8]}:** expanded to "six networks" — water networks, new-type power grids, computing networks, next-generation communication networks, urban underground pipe networks, logistics networks — to channel policy-bank credit into infrastructure.
• **Sci-tech reloan ^{[11][1][12][8]}:** quota +200bn yuan; support ratio raised 60%→100%; total 1.2→1.4 trillion yuan.
• **Agriculture-and-small-business reloan ^{[13][1][14][8]}:** quota +500bn yuan, of which +300bn yuan for private enterprises; total 4.35→4.85 trillion yuan; private-enterprise tranche 1.0→1.3 trillion yuan.

2. Central Mortgage Interest Subsidy [NEW]

• **Mechanism ^[2][15]:** 1% annualized interest subsidy on loan principal, max 5 years, capped at 1M yuan per household; effective Oct 1, 2026 for one year; new origination only, not refinancing.
• **Targeting ^[4]:** first-home purchase, ≤120 sqm, ≤1.5M yuan; covers new and existing homes; does not stack with housing-fund or policy-housing loans.
• **Process ^[3]:** borrower authorizes the bank at signing; the bank auto-applies the discount and notifies via SMS/APP; covers all commercial banks with residential mortgage business.
• **Framing ^[16]:** the Mof, PBoC, and NFRA describe it as the first central-government interest subsidy on commercial first-home mortgages, opening the demand-side policy lever previously dominated by supply-side tools (special bonds for land reserves, stock-purchase programs).

3. Local Coordination and Services [NEW]

• **Dongguan ^[5][6]:** 2% purchase subsidy on contract total, max 30k yuan, for new commodity housing bought Sept 29-Dec 31, 2026 with deed tax paid by Mar 31, 2027; first-home definition relaxed to the town/sub-park level; housing fund now covers renovation and property management fees. Effective same day as the central package.
• **NDRC services press conference ^[17][18]:** services contributed 66.1% to H1 GDP growth, +5.9pp y/y; Business Activity Expectation Index above 55% for 5 consecutive months; PBoC-led 8-ministry "Financial Support for Services" guidance issued Sept 28.

4. Cross-Currents and the Falsification Test

• **BOP August 2026 ^[19][20]:** goods+services trade 5.1179 trillion yuan; exports 2.8793 trillion, imports 2.2386 trillion, surplus 640.7bn yuan (94.4bn USD); travel services 173.1bn yuan, transport 153.2bn yuan.
• **BOP H1 2026 ^[21]:** current-account gross flows 4.6 trillion USD, +16% y/y, surplus 378bn USD; goods trade +18%, services exports +21% (16% contribution from inbound tourism, 42% from emerging productive services per SAFE).
• **Hog ^[22]:** national sow stock 37.8M head, back in the "green reasonable" range; hog price stabilized above 11 yuan/kg — Agricultural Ministry spokesperson Chen Bangxun, Director-General of the Development Planning Department.
• **External ^[23]:** US-Iran negotiations pending Iranian FM return to Tehran; Brent +1.2% to $99/bbl (second straight gain); gold +0.7% to $4,145/oz; 10Y UST +1bp to 5.25% (highest since 2007), 30Y +1bp to 5.56%; Nasdaq futures flipped positive after a -0.5% earlier move. Source quality is single-feed (Wall Street CN), so quote the tape, not a narrative.
• **Trade frictions ^[24]:** July CCPIT global trade friction index at 101, in the elevated range; US protection measures rank #1 for eight consecutive months; US firms lead APEC Business Summit registrations per CCPIT spokesperson Wang Wenshuai; electronic sector ranks first in country-level frictions, with power inverters, battery cells, and mobile phones leading the China-targeted list.
• **Diplomacy ^[25]:** Vice Premier He Lifeng met the Japan International Trade Promotion Association delegation led by the new chair Iwaya, who pledged to expand exchange and deepen mutually beneficial cooperation.
• **Falsification test:** if October first-home mortgage origination in the ≤1.5M yuan / ≤120 sqm band does not accelerate versus the existing-stock baseline, the targeting frame has missed the marginal buyer; the 94.4bn USD August BOP surplus is a separate external buffer that is unaffected by the property channel. The 1% subsidy lowers carrying cost by roughly 60-80bps on a 25-year mortgage — meaningful, but only if the 1.5M-yuan price ceiling binds for the actual marginal buyer in tier-2 and tier-3 cities.