〔Day Digest〕GFEX Lithium Main Sinks 3%+ to 117,200 yuan at Fresh 2026 Low; Spot Off 1,000 yuan, LME Copper Drains 875t — Brazil Reopens Fourth Magnesium Sunset Review

0. Daily Arc

Lithium led the board lower: the GFEX main contract slid more than 3% to 117,200 yuan/ton, printing a fresh 2026 low ^[1], while Mysteel's MMLC battery-grade spot mid-price fell 1,000 yuan/ton to 120,750 yuan/ton ^[2][3][4]. The 3,550 yuan/ton spread between a depressed near-month and a still-firmer spot widened on the session, the futures leg leading the spot leg by roughly 3.7:1 in percentage terms ^[1][2]. GFEX warrants bled across the lithium-silicon complex ^[5], and LME inventory was mixed, with copper and lead the heaviest drains and zinc the only build ^[6]. On the policy tape, Brazil reopened its fourth anti-dumping sunset review on Chinese magnesium ingots, layering a trade dimension onto an already weak base-metals day ^[7].

1. Lithium — the Decisive Move

• **[NEW] GFEX main contract:** down more than 3% intraday to 117,200 yuan/ton, a new 2026 low ^[1]. No fresh catalyst is named in the wire; the print extends a year-long slide.
• **[NEW] MMLC battery-grade spot (morning):** mid-price 120,750 yuan/ton, -1,000 yuan/ton versus the prior 16:30 close, per Mysteel and corroborated by Shanghai Steel Union ^[2][3][4]. Three independent relays (Gelonghui, 10jqka, Cailianshe) print the same figure — high redundancy, high confidence on the spot print ^[2][3][4].
• **[NEW] GFEX warrant:** lithium carbonate 33,220 lots, -495 lots d/d ^[5]. A one-day bleed, not a trend, but consistent with elevated near-month supply pressure.
• **Falsifiable test:** a main-contract close back above 120,000 yuan/ton with the basis to spot narrowing, or a spot print above the prior mid ^[1][2].

2. Inventory Map — LME and GFEX

• **[NEW] LME (Sept. 29):** aluminum flat, tin -110t, nickel -24t, copper -875t, lead -1,150t, zinc +75t ^[6]. Copper and lead led drawdowns; zinc was the only build.
• **[NEW] GFEX warrants (d/d):** lithium carbonate -495 lots to 33,220, polysilicon -720 lots to 23,600, industrial silicon -46 lots to 33,197 ^[5]. A three-contract decline is broad but modest in size.
• **Read:** cross-exchange drawdowns tilt toward battery-and-grid metals (copper, lead, nickel, tin), while polysilicon's warrant bleed adds to the soft solar-chain backdrop ^[6][5].

3. Trade Action — Brazil on Chinese Magnesium

• **[NEW] Fourth sunset review:** Brazil's Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services opened the 4th anti-dumping sunset review on Chinese magnesium ingots on Sept. 24, following a May 28 application by RIMA Industrial S.A. ^[7]. Mercosur tariff lines 8104.11.00 and 8104.19.00 are in scope ^[7].
• **Investigation windows:** dumping — April 2025 to March 2026 (12 months); injury — April 2021 to March 2026 (60 months) ^[7]. Effective on publication.
• **Falsifiable test:** an early suspension or termination notice; the 12/60-month structure points to a long review cycle by default ^[7].

4. Watch Items and Source Quality

• **Thin sourcing flag:** the Xinhua salt-lake reform feature, relayed via a Google News aggregator, sits in the packet without a market-data hook — treat as background color, not a driver ^[8].
• **Backwardation monitor:** the 3,550 yuan/ton spot-over-futures gap (120,750 vs. 117,200) is the cleanest single metric to track; convergence to either side reframes the next leg ^[1][2].
• **Cross-source agreement:** four wires (Gelonghui, 10jqka, Cailianshe, all citing Mysteel) corroborate the 120,750 yuan/ton mid and the -1,000 yuan/ton delta ^[2][3][4]; confidence is high on the print itself, lower on its sustainability without a follow-through volume data point.