〔Day Digest〕Mortgage Subsidy Kicks In, Golden-Week Property Pockets Light Up; September PPI Heads for 4.5% Year-High while 2% 3-Year CDs Reappear — Demand-Side Cut vs Funding-Cost Pinch

0. Weekly Arc

The '828 reform' plus a 1 October mortgage interest subsidy have crystallized a twin-track property playbook — demand-side cost cuts running parallel to supply-side risk controls ^[1][2]. Holiday readings show the demand side responding in pockets: Wuhan new-home sales up more than 10% y/y Oct 1-3, Foshan's five districts reporting rising foot traffic, and Beijing's two-airport cluster clearing 100 million passengers 17 days ahead of 2025 ^[3][1]. Yet a broker preview still pegs September retail at just +0.5% y/y with durable goods deepening, and the bulk-commodity index rose 4.1% m/m as construction season peaked ^[4][5]. The pivot is whether policy-pushed property momentum can offset a softening consumption base.

1. Holiday Consumption and Travel

• **[NEW] Beijing airports:** the two-airport cluster crossed 100 million passengers on Oct 4, 17 days earlier than 2025; domestic throughput 81.06 million (+6% y/y), international/regional 19.15 million (+9.6% y/y) ^[3].
• **[NEW] Property pockets:** Wuhan new-home sales value up more than 10% y/y Oct 1-3; Shiyan sales area and value up roughly 13% y/y; Foshan's five districts reporting rising foot traffic, inquiries, and subscriptions, with qualifying high-value projects the first to capture the subsidy ^[1].
• **[ESCALATED] Subsidy mechanism:** the 1 October mortgage interest subsidy is now in force, framed by People's Daily as "precise drip irrigation," with parallel calls for whole-chain "good housing" build-out ^[6][7].
• **[ONGOING] State-media narrative:** Xinhua and People's Daily feature pieces frame holiday consumption as a domestic-demand anchor — "fireworks rising," Cangzhou night-economy hotspots, county-tourism "slow economy," and performance/events as foot-traffic entry points ^{[8][9][10][11]}.
• Source quality control: most holiday color is state-media single-source; the Wuhan/Shiyan figures come from Hubei provincial housing bureau data relayed via Pengpai ^[1].

2. Property: Twin-Track Reform in Action

• **[NEW] "828 reform" + mortgage subsidy:** the combined package is described as "demand-side cost reduction running in parallel with supply-side risk prevention"; Beijing and Shanghai have both issued commodity-housing sales-system reform details, and National Bureau of Statistics September data show secondary-market transactions have surpassed new residential builds in volume ^[2][12].
• **[NEW] Funding-cost counterweight:** Handan Bank listed new large CDs at 1.0%-1.4% annualized across 1-18 months; Xishang Bank relaunched a 3-year large CD at 2.0% annualized (Rmb200,000 minimum, 90-day transferable window) ^[13]. The reappearance of 2.0% three-year money at smaller banks is the structural counterweight to mortgage easing.
• **[ONGOING] Panda bond shift:** in H1 2026 foreign issuers raised 54% of total panda bond proceeds, the first time exceeding domestic Chinese-background issuers; Rmb58.7 billion of foreign proceeds were earmarked for offshore use, 68% of foreign issuance ^[14].

3. September Data Preview and Bulk Commodities

• **[NEW] Bulk-commodity index:** September's CFLP index rose 4.1% m/m, driven by peak construction season, improved demand, plus international price disturbance and tight supply ^[4].
• **[NEW] Broker preview:** September PPI tracking roughly 4.5% y/y, above June's year-to-date high; Q3 GDP tracking 4.5% (vs Q2's 4.3%); retail sales at +0.5% y/y (vs August's 0.4%); 1-9M FAI at -7.0% (vs -7.2% for 1-8M); September narrow-passenger-car retail at -24.7% y/y per CPCA, deeper than August's -23.6% ^[5].
• **[ONGOING] Investment structure:** 1-8M high-tech industry investment up 5.2% y/y, accelerating 0.2 ppt from 1-7M and contributing 0.5 ppt to total investment growth ^[15]. Composition improving even as the headline stays negative.
• Source quality control: the +4.5% PPI / +4.5% GDP calls are a single broker preview ^[5]; the 4.1% commodity index is the official CFLP release ^[4].

4. Trade, Capital and the Import Expo

• **[NEW] Russia auto trade:** CPCA's Cui Dongshu reports August Russia auto sales of 124,000 units (-8% y/y); 1-8M Russia sales 920,000 (+6%); 1-8M China exports to Russia 638,000 units; Chinese-brand local sales 500,000 units, 78% of the export volume — "relatively balanced" ^[16].
• **[NEW] Asset-management scale:** the Asset Management Association of China reports total AM product scale of Rmb88.37 trillion at end-Q2 2026 across fund managers and their subsidiaries, securities firms and their subsidiaries, futures firms and their AM subsidiaries, and private fund managers ^[17].
• **[NEW] CIIE countdown:** 30 days to the 9th China International Import Expo in Shanghai (Nov 5); 1,200+ companies from 99 countries/regions signed up, exhibition area 340,000+ sqm, 265 Fortune 500 or industry leaders; Roche Pharmaceuticals, Samsung, L'Oréal and Pernod Ricard among 30+ "ten-year" participants signed for the 10th edition ^[18].
• **[NEW] Hong Kong legislative agenda:** Legco will hold a joint debate Oct 7-9 on the first Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) and the Chief Executive's 2026 Policy Address, with 22 written-reply policy questions ^[19].

5. Geopolitical Overhang

• **[NEW] Israel-Gaza anniversary:** PM Netanyahu, marking three years since the Oct 7, 2023 attack, reiterated hardline Gaza/Lebanon military posture and threatened Iran — claiming the Iranian regime is in its "weakest period" and "will disappear from the world" ^[20].
• **[NEW] Foiled attack plot:** an Israeli official says the Omani first officer (Hamam Hamami) who assaulted an Emirates captain had been planning an attack on a Tel Aviv-bound flight in the past year before abandoning it ^[21].
• Both items are relayed via Chinese state media (CCTV) and anonymous Israeli officials; treat as thin-sourced single-channel.