〔Day Digest〕Copper Rises for a Second Session as Softer US Jobs Data Eases Fed Tightening Bets — LME Draws 3,750t Yet COMEX Keeps Building, New Orleans Inflows Dominate

0. Overnight Arc

Copper ticked up as Fed rate hike bets cooled, extending a rally that began after the US employment report eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates ^[1][2][3]. It is the second consecutive up session and the cleanest expression of the macro tailwind inside the base-metals complex this morning ^[1][3].

1. Mechanism: Soft Jobs, Softer Fed

• **[NEW] US jobs data as the trigger:** Bloomberg reports copper gained as the US employment report offered relief on Fed tightening, framing the rally as a direct response to a less hawkish rate path ^[3].
• **[ONGOING] Rate-hike-bet cooling:** two TradingView carries through the Asian session tag the same driver — "Fed rate hike bets ease" and "cool" — which keeps the narrative consistent across two windows and two sources ^[1][2].
• **[ESCALATED] Macro hand-off:** with the US print in hand, the European open becomes the handoff; the test is whether the dovish read survives the services PMI block ^[4][3].

2. Inventory Divergence: LME Draws, COMEX Builds

• **[NEW] LME tape (08:01):** copper -3,750t, lead -2,700t, aluminum flat, zinc +3,225t, tin -45t, nickel -198t ^[5]. Copper's draw is the headline, but zinc's 3,225t build is the counterweight inside the same basket ^[5].
• **[ONGOING] COMEX, opposite direction:** COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate, with New Orleans inflows dominating the build ^[6]. The split — LME drawing, COMEX building — is the tension the surface price does not show ^[5][6].
• **[NEW] Forward LME print:** the UK LME copper, aluminum and nickel inventory change for October 5 is due inside the European window, so the LME leg has a near-term refresh that can either confirm or break the divergence ^[4].

3. European Open Calendar

• **[NEW] Eurozone services PMI finals:** France, Germany and the eurozone September services PMI final readings land at the open, making the PMI block the first European test of the post-jobs dovish read on copper ^[4].
• **[NEW] UK LME stocks:** copper, aluminum and nickel inventory changes for October 5 print within the same European window ^[4].
• Falsification test: a hawkish PMI surprise or an LME rebuild would undercut the second-session thesis; a soft PMI plus another LME draw extends it ^[1][4][3].

4. Adjacent Read and Source Quality

• **[NEW] (single source / off-board):** Bloomberg's Africa Investors Guide flags critical minerals and data centers as top opportunities, per Chief Africa Correspondent Jennifer Zabasajja ^[7]. Useful long-run copper-demand context but not a near-term catalyst and sourced to a single feed ^[7].
• Source control: the Fed-bet cooling line is two TradingView carries ^[1][2]; the COMEX-accumulation read is a single Chinese flash ^[6] and should be cross-checked against the next exchange tape before being treated as a multi-day trend.