〔Day Digest〕PBOC Re-Anchors to O/N Repo, Phases Out Deposit-Loan Benchmarks as Regulators Tighten - CSI 300's Record 10-Week Slide Caps Forum Day

0. Daily Arc

The 2026 Financial Street Forum — themed "Opening · Cooperation · Inclusion: Building a New Ecosystem for Global Financial Development" — delivered a coordinated reset from the "one bank, two bureaus, one commission" (PBOC, NFRA, CSRC, SAFE) ^[1]. PBOC re-anchored the policy rate to the overnight repo and laid out the exit from deposit and loan benchmark rates ^[1][2]; NFRA tightened substantive supervision over large investment and credit lines and promised continued resolution of high-risk institutions ^[3][4]; CSRC flagged offshore leveraged products linked to individual A-shares as a new risk point ^[5]. Yet the equity market pushed back: the CSI 300 logged a record 10th straight weekly loss, down more than 17% from its June high and approaching technical bear-market territory ^[6]. Hog prices softened ^[7], and new anti-dumping actions from Pakistan on ibuprofen and South Korea on seamless steel pipes added external friction ^[8][9].

1. Monetary Framework: Re-anchor to O/N Repo, Exit Benchmarks

• **[NEW] PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng:** the open-market overnight repo rate will become the main policy rate, with the framework transition described as gradual ^[1][2]. Loan-side pricing is already anchored to LPR and the interbank overnight repo; deposit pricing is now guided by average deposit rates published since Q1 2026; the PBOC will push market-based interest-rate indicators to fully replace deposit and loan benchmark rates ^[1].
• **[NEW] Industrial Bank Research:** shifting the operating target from 7-day OMO to overnight OMO at an unchanged repo rate would deliver roughly 10bp of "quasi-rate-cut" effect, achieving a "structural financial-market rate cut" without lowering LPR and helping stabilize banks' net interest margin ^[10]. If 7-day OMO is also moved to a "rate tender, multiple-price winning" format — modeled on the March 2025 MLF reform — actual clearing rates could drift lower under ample liquidity and competitive bidding, easing interbank funding costs ^[10].
• **[NEW] PBOC:** plans to include foreign RMB clearing banks in the overseas central bank-class institution repo facility; the digital RMB operation management center, set up in Beijing last year, is fully operational, and operating institutions have expanded from 10 to 30, covering all systemically important banks ^[11].

2. Regulators Tighten: NFRA, CSRC, and the Bond Market

• **[ESCALATED] NFRA Director Ding Xiangqun:** emphasize substance over form, strengthen penetration supervision over large investment and credit lines; prudently handle high-risk institutions through M&A, restructuring, and market exit, with risk continuing to converge ^[3][4]. Reinforced in the same speech: all financial activities will be brought under regulation per law ^[12].
• **[NEW] CSRC Chairman Wu Qing:** maintain capital market stability; "remain highly vigilant" against new risk points such as offshore leveraged products linked to individual A-shares; support Beijing Haidian in building technology-finance demonstration cases and push to establish the Beijing Capital Market Society ^[13][5]. Linked: CSRC is "going all out" to address multiple unexpected imported risks and continues to advance investment-financing reform ^[14].
• **[NEW] Bond market clean-up:** PBOC issued the "Interbank Bond Market Bond Issuance Management Rules" for public comment, targeting rebate/return-fee, collusive bidding, false tenders, and unauthorized proxy subscriptions across issuance pricing, underwriting, bidding, and compliance ^[15]. Context (single-source / trade-association data via Yicai): in 2025, structured-bond-related penalties accounted for over 40% of cases, with single return-fee cases reaching tens of millions of yuan; the "Yongcheng Coal debt" case is cited as a cautionary precedent ^[15].

3. Market Reaction: Record CSI 300 Slide, Firmer RMB, Softer Hogs

• **[NEW] CSI 300:** extended its losing streak to a record 10 consecutive weeks, dropping 3.4% over the latest five sessions; the index rebounded 0.3% Monday after Q3 GDP data came in better than expected, but is still down more than 17% from its June high, approaching technical bear-market territory ^[6]. Note: the 0.3% rebound is one session; the 10-week record is the dominant signal.
• **[NEW] FX:** onshore RMB/USD closed at 6.6817, +51 bps on the day; the fixing was set at 6.7208 ^[16].
• **[NEW] Agriculture:** in week 3 of October (Oct 12–18), the national live hog average was 10.89 yuan/kg, -1.6% w/w; pork retail 20.81 yuan/kg, -0.8% w/w; wholesale market 15.83 yuan/kg, -0.6% w/w and -12.6% y/y; experts cite active slaughter and loose supply, with the week ahead seen as mildly range-bound ^[7].

4. External Drag: New Anti-Dumping Files

• **[NEW] Pakistan (case ADC78, Oct 15, 2026):** preliminary affirmative anti-dumping ruling on ibuprofen (HS 2916.3910) from China (8.71% provisional duty) and the US (7.77%), effective for 4 months; final ruling expected within 180 days; investigation launched July 25, 2026, with dumping period April 2025 – March 2026 and injury period April 2023 – March 2026 ^[8].
• **[NEW] South Korea (case 23-2026-9, filed Oct 8 by Iljin Steel):** anti-dumping investigation on seamless steel pipes from China under HS codes 7304.19–7304.90; dumping period Jan–Dec 2025, injury period 2021–2025; preliminary ruling expected within 3 months, extendable by up to 2 months ^[9].

5. Macro Backdrop and What Decides Next

• **[NEW] SAFE Administrator / PBOC Deputy Governor Zhu Hexin:** China's opening-up has expanded; the share of overseas assets held by enterprises and banks in China's external financial assets rose from roughly 30% at end-2010 to nearly 70% at end-2025, reflecting stronger market-driven cross-border resource allocation ^[17].
• **[ONGOING] Xinhua / NBS:** China's Q1–Q3 GDP growth is in line with the annual expected growth target; the NBS highlights the fundamental role of consumption in economic growth ^[18][19]. The specific growth rate and full-year target are not given in the material — quote only the "in line" framing.
• **Falsifiable test:** whether the O/N repo re-anchor delivers the ~10bp "quasi-cut" Industrial Bank Research projects ^[10]; whether the CSRC's new risk flags — particularly offshore leveraged products linked to A-share names — translate into specific issuance or margin rules ^[5]; whether the CSI 300 can stabilize after ten straight weekly losses ^[6]; and whether the Pakistan and South Korea rulings widen into a broader anti-dumping cluster against Chinese exports ^[8][9].