〔Day Digest〕China Repricing Finds Policy-and-Earnings Support — 700 Billion-Yuan MLF, 5.1% Fiscal Revenue Growth and 93.56% Profit Growth Among 64 Disclosing STAR Companies — but 1.1% Retail Sales, -7.2% Fixed-Investment Growth and a 1.64% China 10-Year Yield Preserve the Tension

0. Weekly Arc ^[1][2][3]

• **[NEW] Two-speed signal:** Policy and earnings supplied the constructive side of the cross-asset arc: a 700 billion yuan one-year MLF operation, 5.1% first-three-quarter fiscal revenue growth and 93.56% combined net-profit growth among 64 disclosing STAR Market companies contrast with September retail-sales growth of 1.1%, cumulative fixed investment down 7.2% year on year and a 1.64% China 10-year government-bond yield ^[1][2][3].
• **[NEW] Source quality:** Several packet entries supply titles but no body detail, so they are context flags rather than evidence for quantified conclusions ^{[4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]}.

1. Policy, Liquidity and Tax ^[15][1]

• **[NEW] Monetary operation:** The People's Bank of China will conduct a 700 billion yuan MLF operation using a fixed-quantity, rate-tender and multiple-price award process for a one-year term ^[1].
• **[NEW] Fiscal activity:** First-three-quarter national fiscal revenue grew 5.1% year on year, while stamp duty on securities transactions reached 239.1 billion yuan, up 65.1% ^[1].
• **[NEW] Family and energy policy:** The State Council called for faster construction of a fertility-friendly society and better fiscal, social-security and housing support for families, while the National Development and Reform Commission set December 1, 2026, for trial rules on medium- and long-term energy-supply contracts ^[1].
• **[ESCALATED] Offshore-trust enforcement:** Beijing's Huairou tax authority served tax-matters notices on 21 individuals, including Chao Zhezhe, requiring them to review offshore trusts they established or joined and submit related materials within 15 days; October 22 was the transition deadline ^[15].
• **[ONGOING] Tax scope:** The rules treat assets transferred into offshore trusts and income received through them as taxable, with a 90-day filing window ending October 22 for specified unpaid taxes generated from 2023-2025 for residents and from 2023 through implementation for non-residents ^[15].

2. Economy, Incomes and Structural Demand ^{[16][17][18][19][20][3]}

• **[NEW] Uneven activity:** The cited macro review recorded September industrial-output growth of 5.5%, retail-sales growth of 1.1% and a 7.2% year-on-year decline in cumulative fixed investment ^[3].
• **[NEW] Wages:** The 2025 average annual wage for employees at urban non-private units was 129,441 yuan, up 4.3% nominally and 4.2% in real terms, while the private-unit figure was 71,590 yuan, up 3.0% nominally and 2.9% in real terms; 12 provinces recorded non-private-unit averages above 120,000 yuan ^[17].
• **[NEW] Demographics:** The 2025 total dependency ratio reached 45.1%, with the old-age dependency ratio at 23.1% exceeding the child dependency ratio of 22% for the first time; people aged 65 and over represented 15.9% of the population, compared with 15.1% for ages 0-14 ^[18].
• **[ONGOING] Electricity demand:** The 1995-2025 provincial series shows eastern manufacturing provinces retaining the lead, with Guangdong rising from 78.8 billion kWh in 1995 to 959.0 billion kWh in 2025, while 2025 Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang reached 889.5 billion, 867.1 billion and 726.6 billion kWh, respectively; central and western resource and energy-base provinces posted later gains ^[16].
• **[NEW] Harvest:** The national autumn-grain harvest had passed 80% and was running faster than a year earlier, while Zhang Haiyang, leader of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' specialty-oilseed expert advisory group, said the promoted variety produced 20% more than ordinary varieties and reduced harvesting costs ^[19].
• **[NEW] Water infrastructure:** The Shigu water-source project of the Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project entered its final stage, with more than 600 km of main channel expected to carry Jinsha River water to about 15 million people after completion ^[20].

3. Earnings, Trade and Energy Flows ^[21][22][2]

• **[NEW] STAR Market earnings:** By October 24, 64 STAR Market companies had disclosed third-quarter reports, with combined revenue of 159.695 billion yuan, up 35.47%, and combined net profit of 14.781 billion yuan, up 93.56%; 55 companies were profitable, nine had turned profitable and 36 recorded higher net profit ^[2].
• **[NEW] Lithium exports:** Shenzhen's first-three-quarter lithium-battery exports exceeded 80 billion yuan, rose more than 30% year on year and reached more than 200 countries and regions, with portable energy-storage equipment accounting for a substantial share ^[22].
• **[NEW] Diesel supply:** Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said Russia was ready to supply partners, including the United States, with any quantity of diesel within planned export totals; three Russian diesel tankers were already sailing to North America ^[21].

4. Market Pricing, Allocation Views and Fund Plumbing ^{[23][24][25][3]}

• **[NEW] Weekly pricing:** The CSI 300 fell 1.57% and its index futures fell 0.74%, coking-coal futures fell 4.95% and iron-ore futures fell 0.45%; the 10-year government-bond yield fell 1 bp to 1.64% and active 10-year bond futures rose 0.07%, while money-fund yields rose 3 bp to 1.13% and Yu'ebao's seven-day annualized yield rose 3 bp to 0.85% ^[3].
• **[NEW] House allocation view:** The cited brokerage ranked commodities above bonds, stocks and money-market assets, recorded third-quarter real GDP growth of 4.5% and first-three-quarter growth of 4.6%, and projected that 2026 growth would likely clear the 4.5% lower-bound target given the low fourth-quarter 2025 base; this is one brokerage view in the packet rather than a cross-source consensus ^[3].
• **[NEW] Long-term value case:** Beijing Lerui Asset Management said Chinese manufacturing's global competitiveness and supportive macro policy provide foundations for high-quality companies to create value and for Chinese market and asset values to hold over the long term ^[23].
• **[NEW] Revaluation case:** ZhongOu Ruibo Investment Management Chairman and CIO Wu Weizhi said a Chinese-equity revaluation window had opened, citing global underallocation, improving earnings expectations, policy support, AI and energy, resilient manufacturing and exports, and foreign long-only funds' underweight positions ^[24].
• **[ESCALATED] QDII plumbing:** An unnamed public-fund manager said some QDII segregated-account products were being wound up as firms moved the share of QDII quota allocated to segregated accounts toward 20% or less by end-2027, potentially affecting later quota applications; another fund manager said no action was needed because its quota was already below 20%, leaving the liquidation claims thin and product-specific ^[25].

5. Falsification Tests ^{[21][15][25][2][3]}

• **[NEW] Demand transmission:** For the policy-and-earnings revaluation case to become demand-backed, future retail sales and fixed investment must improve on 1.1% growth and a 7.2% decline; without that, the constructive evidence remains concentrated in policy operations and disclosed-company earnings ^[1][2][3].
• **[NEW] Earnings breadth:** The 93.56% net-profit increase applies to the 64 STAR Market companies that had disclosed by October 24, so broader disclosed results are needed before treating it as a market-wide earnings signal ^[2].
• **[NEW] Rates and allocation:** The 10-year government-bond yield fell 1 bp to 1.64% while the money-fund yield rose 3 bp to 1.13%, making a reversal alongside better sales and investment data the cleanest test of the cited allocation ranking ^[3].
• **[NEW] Fund-flow confirmation:** QDII liquidation claims should be separated into confirmed product closures and quota reallocation before treating the adjustment as a broader foreign-fund constraint ^[25].
• **[NEW] Enforcement follow-through:** For offshore trusts, the next evidence is whether the 21 Huairou recipients file within the 15-day window and whether enforcement broadens; the detailed item documents one district rather than a nationwide enforcement count ^[15].
• **[NEW] Diesel confirmation:** Novak's statement provides no tonnage, pricing or delivery schedule, and the only shipment detail is that three tankers were heading to North America, so actual cargo data are needed before drawing a supply conclusion ^[21].