〔Overnight Brief〕Hormuz Transits Down >90% and Oil at ~$88 Force IMF to Lift 2026 Global Inflation to 4.7% — UK Shelves Green Levies, Weighs Bank, Oil Windfall Taxes

0. Overnight Arc

Six months into the Iran conflict, the Hormuz shipping collapse is the dominant global macro story: the IMF has lifted its 2026 global inflation call to 4.7% on energy and food pass-through, with oil anchored near $88 and Strait traffic still down more than 90% from pre-war norms ^[1]. Against that backdrop, the UK is making two cost-of-living pivots — shelving ETS expansion to waste incinerators and ports while weighing windfall taxes on banks and oil firms ^[2][3]. Canada posted its strongest quarterly growth in three years ^[4]; Poland's draft budget charts a glidepath to 2% growth by 2030 with deficits still >7% of GDP ^[5]. On FX, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent flagged disorderly yen moves as a global stability risk ^[6].

1. Energy, Shipping, and the IMF Inflation Lift

• **[ESCALATED] Hormuz shipping collapse persists:** commercial vessel transits fell from 130-140 per day pre-war to single digits, a drop exceeding 90% ^[1].
• **[ONGOING] Oil anchored at $88:** international oil broke $126/barrel at the peak and now sits around $88, still 20%+ above pre-war levels ^[1].
• **[NEW] IMF 2026 global inflation: 4.7%** — driven by energy and food pass-through ^[1].
• **[NEW] July pass-through visible:** U.S. CPI +3.4% y/y with gasoline +24.6%; eurozone and UK July inflation both at 2.9% ^[1].
• **[NEW] World Bank tail:** if energy supply disruption persists, 2026 global growth could be just 1.3% ^[1].

2. UK Fiscal and Climate Policy Split

• **[NEW] ETS expansion shelved:** PM Burnham dropped predecessor Starmer's plan to bring waste incinerators and domestic ports into the UK Emissions Trading Scheme, citing cost-of-living and red-tape-driven price pressure ^[2]. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero confirmed the indefinite pause ^[2].
• **[NEW] Shipping levy re-route:** officials quietly abandoned port "berthing" carbon charges under ETS and are pivoting to a shipping-enterprise carbon tax instead ^[2].
• **[NEW] Windfall tax on the table:** Chancellor Healey is weighing one-off levies on banks and oil companies to fill a £4.7bn public-finance gap, while keeping next month's budget low-key and tax hikes well below those of predecessor Reeves ^[3].

3. Continental Europe and Canada

• **[NEW] Canada Q2 — three-year high:** PM Carney said exports and business investment rose, framing it as validation of the government's domestic-economy and trade-diversification agenda ^[4]. Single-source political claim; awaits hard data confirmation.
• **[NEW] Poland: glidepath to 2%:** Finance Ministry draft projects growth stepping down from 3.6% in 2026 to 2.1% in 2029 and 2.0% in 2030 as investment and consumption slow, with the fiscal deficit still >7% of GDP and inflation easing to 2.5% by 2030 ^[5].
• **[NEW] Tusk on the clock:** PM Tusk called the next 7-8 months a "critical period" as Russia heightens tensions with Europe; main fiscal risks flagged are the Middle East and Ukraine ^[5].

4. FX and Cross-Border Spillovers

• **[NEW] Bessent on yen risk:** U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said disorderly yen moves could trigger "forced unwinds" of positions, destabilizing global markets and ultimately raising borrowing costs for U.S. households and businesses ^[6]. Read: Washington is signaling tolerance for orderly JPY weakness while drawing a line at disorderly moves, with global risk assets as the transmission channel.