〔Day Digest〕VLCCs Reclaim Hormuz at 10.3 mb/d (76% of Pre-War) as Product Tankers Vanish — Diesel Drops to 11% of Strait Cargoes, UKMTO Logs Four Warnings in Four Hours, $25K Round-Trip Bounty

0. The Arc

**[ONGOING] Crude is moving again** — Kpler puts the seven-day average for Hormuz crude transit at 10.3 mb/d, 76% of the pre-war baseline ^[1][2], and CBA via WSJ reports Brent holding above the $100 psychological level even as Middle East exports climb toward pre-war levels ^[3]. **Yet the refined side is inverted** — diesel and gasoline cargoes are 1.3 mb/d, or 11% of strait traffic, versus 20%+ before the war ^[1], and tanker attacks have hit a wartime high ^[4]. The binding constraint is no longer crude barrels but product molecules.

1. The Flow Divergence

• **[NEW] Kpler (via market intelligence firm Kpler):** seven-day Hormuz crude transit averaged 10.3 mb/d through Saturday, equal to 76% of the pre-war baseline ^[1][2]. Refined product cargoes (gasoline, diesel) are 1.3 mb/d, only 11% of total throughput, versus more than 20% pre-war ^[1].
• **[NEW] US Navy escort skew:** American escorts have prioritized VLCCs (~2 million barrels of crude each) — the largest crude class, double the capacity of the biggest product tanker ^[1]. US oil industry executives have argued the Navy should raise the escort priority for diesel and product tankers ^[1].
• **[NEW] Crew bounty:** tanker crews are being offered $25,000 per Hormuz round trip as exports recover ^[5]. The premium is the price of risk in a wartime strait.
• **[NEW] Iranian tankers stranded:** UANI (United Against Nuclear Iran) counts roughly 50 Iranian oil tankers still near Iran — broadly unchanged from two months ago — with 20 near Sri Lanka and 1 near Oman ^[6]. Some empty vessels are sitting at anchorages across the Indo-Pacific rather than returning to Iranian ports ^[6].

2. The Attack Pattern

• **[ESCALATED] UKMTO surge:** four attack warnings in four hours on Monday ^[7]; five Hormuz incidents logged that day ^[8]. Earlier batch: four ships attacked in recent days ^[9].
• **[NEW] Greek LNG carrier hit** in the Strait of Hormuz, crew safe ^[10]. Separate UKMTO, SANA and WANA reports of an oil tanker struck by an unidentified projectile ^[11][12].
• **[ONGOING] Third tanker hit near Hormuz** as Iran called US talks "meaningless" ^[13]. Crew fought fire on a separate tanker as the attack flurry continued ^[14].
• **[ESCALATED] Tanker attacks around Hormuz at a wartime high** ^[4].
• **[NEW] Bab el-Mandeb counter-offensive:** Saudi-backed Yemen forces retaking the strait from Houthis, per the New York Post ^[15].

3. The Diesel Squeeze

• **[NEW] WSJ:** the scramble is on for diesel; damaged refineries and tight fuel supplies keep prices elevated globally ^[16]. A separate WSJ piece reports oil prices falling as Middle East exports recover, though shipping risks persist ^[17].
• **[NEW] CBA via WSJ:** Brent holds above the $100-a-barrel psychological level even as ship-tracking shows Middle East exports approaching pre-war levels ^[3].
• **[NEW] (single source / unverified):** even if Hormuz reopens fully, prices will only briefly fall — US shale decline rates may break the supply-ramp myth, per a Jin Shi data-outlet quick-take ^[18]. Treat as a thesis, not a print.
• **[NEW] Europe gas:** rises as tanker threats counter a surge in Hormuz LNG shipments ^[19].

4. The Diplomatic-Military Posture

• **[NEW] Saudi interior ministry emergency notice:** filming, posting or sharing footage of intercepted missiles, drones or their impact sites exposes the public to legal liability, the Chinese embassy in Riyadh relayed after the Saudi ministry's multi-language alert ^[20]. The Chinese embassy also reminded Chinese nationals and Chinese-funded institutions in Saudi to comply with local law ^[20].
• **[ESCALATED] Riyadh strikes:** CCTV reports a second wave of explosions in northern Riyadh near King Khalid International Airport overnight; Houthi forces separately claimed a strike on Abha airport, which Saudi authorities have not confirmed ^[21].
• **[NEW] Joint defense deployment:** Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have decided to implement joint defense and deploy forces in Saudi territory, per Xinhua ^[22].
• **[NEW] EU posture:** European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Iran-backed Houthis are again targeting Saudi infrastructure including refineries and airports, and that the EU stands firmly with Saudi and Gulf partners; regional security will be a core topic of an EU-GCC meeting later this month ^[23].
• **[ONGOING] Iran:** US talks described as "meaningless" by Tehran, per Iran International ^[13].
• **[NEW] NYT:** a burst of attacks in the Gulf heightens fears over the fragile energy trade ^[24].

5. Source Quality and What Decides Next

• Source quality control: the shale-decline thesis ^[18] and the Bab el-Mandeb retaken claim ^[15] are single-source and should be flagged as such. The Saudi interior ministry notice was relayed via the Chinese embassy in Riyadh and has not been independently confirmed by Saudi state media in this packet ^[20].
• The WSJ read is internally split: one piece reports oil prices falling on the export recovery ^[17], while the CBA-markets piece notes Brent is little changed and above $100 ^[3]. Quote the band, not a point.
• Falsifiable test: a return of refined products to 20%+ of Hormuz throughput would close the diesel premium; a slowing of UKMTO warnings (currently four in four hours) would unwind the wartime-high attack-rate read ^[1][7]. The next decisive print is whether product tankers — not just VLCCs — start to clear the strait in volume.