〔Day Digest〕IRGC Mine Blockade Chokes Hormuz to 4 Transits/Day; Brent Above $110, WTI Past $100, TTF Through €90 — But Gulf Pipeline Bypass Holds Exports Above Prewar

0. Daily Arc

• **[ESCALATED] Tanker war.** IRGC says three tankers struck mines crossing Hormuz, with a supertanker exploding in an "unauthorized" passage ^[1][2]. A projectile hit a separate tanker and a "massive explosion" was reported in the waterway ^[3][4]. Reported transit counts fell from 85/day to 4/day under the mine blockade ^[5].
• **[ESCALATED] Buildup.** US is dispatching the USS Roosevelt carrier strike group and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit — about 10,000 troops, late-November arrival — making Roosevelt the third US carrier in the theater ^[6]. PM Netanyahu has ordered the IDF, Mossad and IDF military intelligence to draw up strike plans whose scale would exceed the February 2026 US-Israel operation, covering power infrastructure, nuclear sites and regime targets ^[6][7].
• **[ONGOING] Prices.** Brent cleared $110 and WTI traded above $100 ^[6]; European TTF gas rose as much as 3.8% intraday, briefly clearing €90/MWh for the first time since end-2022 before fading on unverified US-Iran ceasefire chatter and profit-taking ^[8].

1. Policy and Military Posture

• **[NEW] Iran, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi:** warned the US and Israel may "start a new war" but said Iran is prepared, and accused Netanyahu of dragging Washington into "Netanyahu's trap" for his own political survival ^[6][7].
• **[NEW] Israel, PM Netanyahu:** publicly claimed Trump also wants to "fully eliminate the Iranian threat" and confirmed he has ordered the military, Mossad and military intelligence to pursue "regime change" in Iran ^[7]. Strike plans include civilian power infrastructure, nuclear sites and regime targets; the operation has not been launched, with Trump's explicit opposition the named brake ^[6].
• **[NEW] US deployment (Central Command posture):** Roosevelt CSG plus 13th MEU, ~10,000 additional troops, late-November arrival, third carrier in the theater ^[6].
• **[NEW] UK (defence posture):** will send fighter jets to defend Saudi Arabia from Houthi attacks, per Bloomberg ^[9].
• **[NEW] Israeli Air Force drills:** ten IAF fighters flew from Nevatim airbase across Syria into Iraqi airspace for simulated strike runs against Iran, blurring the line between training and action; the IDF did not respond ^[10].

2. Shipping Disruptions and Price Read

• **[NEW] Tanker incidents:** IRGC says three tankers struck mines in Hormuz crossings, with a supertanker exploding in an "unauthorized" passage ^[1][2]; a separate projectile hit a tanker and a "massive explosion" was reported in the waterway ^[3][4].
• **[NEW] Transit collapse:** Hormuz tanker transits reportedly fell from 85/day to 4/day under the IRGC mine blockade ^[5]. Tehran has publicly said the strait will stay closed until the US meets its terms and that it will not transfer enriched uranium ^[11][12].
• **[NEW] Crude:** Brent broke $110 and WTI topped $100 on Wednesday ^[6]. Bloomberg described a "choppy session" as traders parsed conflicting headlines on US-Iran war-ending efforts ^[13]; oil later steadied after a round of unverified mediation-driven selling ^[14][13].
• **[NEW] European gas:** TTF futures rose as much as 3.8% intraday, briefly clearing €90/MWh for the first time since end-2022, then faded on profit-taking and unverified US-Iran ceasefire reports ^[8]. European storage is well below normal and the region is increasingly LNG-dependent into winter ^[8].
• **[NEW] Fertilizer risk:** Shipping disruptions in Hormuz are now flagged as a threat to global fertilizer supply chains ^[15].

3. Contradiction: Physical Barrels Are Still Moving

• **[NEW] Gulf exports above prewar:** Persian Gulf oil exports have rebounded above prewar volumes under US-protected shipping lanes despite the tanker incidents ^[16][17]. Major Middle East exporters have rerouted barrels via pipelines that bypass Hormuz entirely or pushed more tankers through the waterway under escort ^[18].
• **[NEW] Oman-Dubai differential:** The Oman premium over Dubai crude has fallen to ~$4/bbl, the lowest since late July, down from a peak above $60/bbl when Hormuz was effectively closed ^[18]. General Index tracks the spread ^[18].
• **[NEW] Goldman warning:** Even as the physical premium cools, Goldman says the supply-cost damage has not been repaired and the Brent-WTI differential will persist ^[19].
• **[NEW] Mixed session close:** World oil prices still ended lower in some venues despite the tanker attacks ^[20]; the US-Iran "compromise" chatter drove a V-shaped move in crude, with the Dow up 1% intraday before fading ^[21].

4. What Would Falsify the Bull Case

• Any confirmed ceasefire or terms deal between Washington and Tehran would unwind the tanker risk premium; the earlier intraday fade in gas was triggered by a single unverified report of US-Iran talks ^[8][14].
• A launched Israeli strike campaign larger than the February 2026 operation would re-price the geopolitical tail and likely break Brent past recent highs; the current plan is not executed, with Trump's opposition the named brake ^[6].
• A sustained collapse in Hormuz transit past the 4/day print would force a re-rating of Gulf export resilience, since the "exports above prewar" narrative relies on pipeline bypass and escort ^[18][5].
• Source quality control: the 85-to-4 transit figure is single-source via houseofsaud.com and rests on the IRGC's own framing ^[5]; the "Persian Gulf exports above prewar" claim sits on i24NEWS reporting and an undated 金十 commentary, not on an independent tonnage audit ^[16][17]. Quote both as the contested read.