〔Day Digest〕Copper Holds $14,000 on Treasury Buyback Reprieve, Eyes Prior High; Aluminum Slips 0.96% to 23,670 Yuan, Lithium Range-Bound at 150,950

0. Weekly Arc

Copper caught the macro tailwind from the US Treasury's expanded buyback announcement, with LME at ~$14,100/ton and SHFE at 108,000 yuan/ton pressing prior highs ^[1][2][3]. Yet the rest of the complex told a quieter story — SMM A00 aluminum gave back 0.96% to 23,670 yuan/ton, and battery-grade lithium carbonate slipped 500 yuan/ton to 150,950 yuan/ton after a +8,750 yuan/ton weekly jump ^[4][5][6]. Net: a macro-relief trade for copper running against spot softness in aluminum and a stalled range in lithium.

1. Copper — Treasury Reprieve Targets Prior High, But Inventory Bumps

• **[ONGOING] LME squeeze narrative still live:** cancelled-warrant ratio holds near 50%, with only ~208,000 tons effectively deliverable after 42 straight trading-day draws from the 400,000+ ton start of the year ^[1]. Liu Shiyao (Zijin Tianfeng) flags post-roll dip-buying as the cleaner trade near prior highs, and warns against blind chase ^[1].
• **[NEW] Inventory shock on the tape:** LME stocks rose 12,425 tons to 235,975 tons, and the Comex-LME spread widened to ~$280/ton — a sign the tightness is concentrated rather than broad ^[2]. Domestic spot remained in discount ^[2].
• **[NEW] Macro tailwind:** US federal debt topped $40 trillion; the Treasury's expanded buyback pushed long-end yields down, the dollar eased, and copper caught a relief bounce ^[2][3]. Fed July minutes showed the economy slightly weaker QoQ with the usual expectation of some upside risk, most officials preferring a hold, but more than three backing a 25bp hike ^[2].
• **[ONGOING] Downstream caution:** high-price restocking intent remains thin, and domestic copper quotes extended discounts ^[2].

2. Aluminum — Spot Gives Back 230 Yuan as Profit Map Splits

• **[NEW] Price action:** SMM A00 and Yangtze A00 aluminum both fell 230 yuan/ton (-0.96%) to 23,670 yuan/ton, with the basis holding at -20 yuan/ton ^[5]. Japan MJP premium flat at $280/ton, US Midwest DDP down 1 cent/lb to 107 cents/lb, alumina (Shandong) flat at 2,685 yuan/ton ^[5]. Zhou Minbo (GF Futures) compiled the tape ^[5].
• **[NEW] Profit divergence (single source, Shanghai Securities News via Yicai):** A-share aluminum H1 reports show electrolytic smelters' net profits roughly doubling on year, midstream processors' earnings elasticity weaker, and downstream demand mixed with profits concentrating in high-end aluminum sheet and plate ^[7].

3. Lithium & Nickel — Range-Bound With Mine Restart in Limbo

• **[NEW] Lithium spot cools:** MMLC battery-grade lithium carbonate (morning session) fell 500 yuan/ton to a mid-price of 150,950 yuan/ton ^[6], capping a week that still net +8,750 yuan/ton to 151,500 yuan/ton on Chen Linxuan's (Zijin Tianfeng) read ^[4].
• **[ONGOING] Jianxiawo restart:** safety-permit and EIA consultation documents have been progressively disclosed since July, lifting restart certainty, but the actual restart month remains unspecified ^[4]. Lithium-mica-to-carbonate conversion is flagged as the key supply swing factor ^[4].
• **[NEW] Lithium ore-port inventory (slight bearish):** domestic trader stockpiles held at 12.0万吨 total but saleable inventory rose +0.4万吨 WoW to 9.5万吨 as of Aug 14; Australian and Brazilian spodumene concentrate CIF prices rose +$100/ton each to a level beginning at 21... (figure truncated) ^[4].
• **[ONGOING] Nickel quiet:** Philippine Ni0.9%/Ni1.5% laterite CIF flat at $30/$64.5 per wet ton; Indonesian Ni1.2%/Ni1.5% domestic prices flat at $28/$60 per wet ton; Indonesian sulfur CIF down $25/ton (figure truncated) ^[8]. Quota news still pending, with the market leaning toward eventual ore-supply improvement ^[8].

4. Policy Crosscurrents — Strategic Mineral Hunt Meets Fed Patience

• **[NEW] China policy:** the Ministry of Natural Resources party group met on Aug 19, calling for accelerated implementation of a new round of strategic-mineral exploration and production-increase campaigns, alongside marine-economy policy documents, "Three-North" project work, and geospatial-information infrastructure ^[9].
• **[ONGOING] Geopolitics:** Trump said Iran talks may resume at some point, conditional on Iran abandoning nuclear weapons — no direct metal-market impact cited in the source ^[2].
• **Source-quality flags:** items ^[4] and ^[8] are mid-paragraph truncated; the LME warehouse-stock gain and Comex-LME spread to $280/ton are single-sourced via Everbright's desk notes ^[2]; the H1 aluminum profit divergence is single-sourced to Shanghai Securities News via Yicai ^[7]; the Bloomberg read is short-form, without granular inventory or yield detail ^[3].