〔Day Digest〕Carbonate Off 2,750 yuan/t as Warrants Climb 1,160 Lots, Zimbabwe Quota +300,000 t, and CATL Jianxiawo Restart Stalls — Copper Extends Record High on Tight Near-Term Supply

0. Asian Session Arc

Lithium took a triple hit — the MMLC battery-grade carbonate mid-price dropped 2,750 yuan/ton to 152,450 yuan/ton, GFEX warrants climbed 1,160 lots, and Sinomine added 300,000 t of Zimbabwe concentrate quota — even as CATL's Jianxiawo, the world's largest lepidolite deposit, saw its environmental public notice withdrawn, removing any near-term restart signal ^[1][2][3][4]. Copper told a different story: it extended gains from Tuesday's record-high close on persistent near-term supply tightness despite the prior squeeze easing ^[5].

1. Lithium — Bearish Cluster

• **[NEW] Price and inventory:** MMLC battery-grade lithium carbonate (morning session) mid-price at 152,450 yuan/ton, down 2,750 yuan/ton day-on-day ^[3]; GFEX lithium-carbonate warrants at 43,100 lots, +1,160 day-on-day; polysilicon warrants 23,240 lots (-10); industrial-silicon warrants 33,535 lots (unchanged) ^[1].
• **[ESCALATED] CATL Jianxiawo:** the Yichun Ecological Environment Bureau withdrew the public notice for the project's environmental impact report, citing public doubts about the prior publication website; the mining permit expired on August 9, 2025 and the mine has been suspended since, with ~100,000 t/yr LCE design capacity and 8-10% of national output pre-suspension ^[2]. Net: the restart path, not the spot price, is the binding variable.
• **[NEW] Supply addition:** Sinomine Resource Group (002738.SZ) secured an additional 300,000 t of Zimbabwe lithium-concentrate export quota, layered onto the regime introduced in April after February's shipment halt ^[4].
• **[NEW] Adjacent:** battery-grade nickel sulfate average price down 60 yuan/ton day-on-day per SMM ^[6].

2. Copper — Record Hold, Tight Underneath

• **[NEW] Price action:** copper extended gains from Tuesday's record-high close as short-term supplies remained tight even as last week's severe squeeze eased, per Bloomberg ^[5].
• **[NEW] Equities:** the A-share non-ferrous sector rebounded with copper leadership — Jinchengxin at the daily limit, Jiangxi Copper touching the limit; Yunnan Copper, Western Mining, Northern Copper, Tongling Nonferrous and CMOC were among the top gainers ^[7].
• **[NEW] Catalysts due:** the Swiss August ZEW investor sentiment index and LME copper/aluminum/nickel inventory changes were due within ten minutes of the flash ^[8]; the weekly copper fundamentals report flags spot premium rising counter-trend while elevated spread and a surge in inventory pressure buyers ^[9].

3. Source Quality and Falsification

• The CATL Jianxiawo withdrawal is a single-source relay (Securities Times via 36Kr) ^[2]; the Sinomine quota is the company's own announcement via Kitco ^[4]; warrant and price prints are exchange/Mysteel direct ^[1][3]. The contradiction — lithium falling while the largest lepidolite restart stalls — is itself the test: if Jianxiawo's delay extends without offsetting demand softness, the bearish cluster gives way; the LME inventory print and the weekly copper report decide the near-term tape ^[2][9][8][5].