〔Day Digest〕Copper's 10-Week Run Snaps at $14,875: First Weekly Loss in Six Months, Lithium Breaks 140,000 Yuan/Ton, EU Drops Aluminum Scrap Tax — Tin and Alumina Lead the Overnight Slide

0. Weekly Arc

The driver flipped from supply scarcity to risk management. LME copper posted its first weekly decline in six months (-1.2%) after a Thursday 3.6% drop from a $14,875 record high ^[1]. SHFE copper's main contract closed at 108,440 yuan/ton in the early Asian night session, roughly 2% below the Sept 8 high of 110,620 yuan/ton ^[2]. Marex's Alastair Munro flagged "overweight long positioning" and Sucden Financial called Thursday's heavy volume "significant risk reduction" ^[1] — yet SHFE warehouse stocks fell 13% to 54,780 tons, the lowest since January 2024 ^[1], so the physical tape and the positioning tape are pulling in opposite directions.

1. Copper Mechanics: Record High, Then Risk-Off

• **[NEW] LME close (Sept 11):** three-month copper +$6.5 (+0.05%) to $14,240/ton; weekly -1.2% ending 10 consecutive up weeks; LME inventory unchanged at 117,600 tons ^[1].
• **[NEW] China inventory tightening:** SHFE copper stocks -13% WoW to 54,780 tons, lowest since January 2024 ^[1].
• **[NEW] SHFE lead contract (overnight):** main contract 108,440 yuan/ton, -0.20%; range 108,350–108,830 yuan/ton; international copper -0.39% ^[2].
• **[NEW] US dark pool:** COMEX-equivalent US copper down over 1% intraday at $6.5157/lb in early Asian trade ^[3].
• **[ESCALATED] Positioning vs fundamentals:** Marex expects further physical tightening over coming months, but the near-term focus is "entirely risk management"; Sucden sees supply tightness capping any selloff ^[1].
• **[ONGOING] Tariff overhang:** White House has yet to decide on copper tariffs, per reporting cited by SMM, leaving the US premium path unresolved ^[1].

2. Lithium Break: Below 140,000 Yuan/Ton on Multiple Shocks

• **[NEW] LC2701 close (Sept 11):** -4.99% after an intraday -9.74% move; price broken below 14万元/吨 (140,000 yuan/ton) ^[4]. An industry-association source notes that in the prior down-leg, some external-ore producers had cost near 14万元/吨 and several halted for maintenance ^[4]; further downside could trigger fresh high-cost line curtailments.
• **[NEW] Supply-side drivers:** a third-party statistical adjustment surfaced ~100,000 tons of hidden inventory; September domestic output is expected +11% MoM; Zimbabwe and overseas lithium-ore shipments have resumed ^[4].
• **[NEW] Demand-side split:** LFP (lithium iron phosphate) cathode production remains tight, but some top-tier ternary (NCM) cell makers saw order intake and pickup pace weaken markedly ^[4].
• **[ONGOING] Policy backdrop:** national authorities continue advancing a power- and storage-battery capacity early-warning and control mechanism ^[4].

3. Policy: EU Retreats on Aluminum Scrap Export Tax

• **[NEW] Brussels drops the proposal:** citing concern that the levy could derail the final signing of an FTA with India, people familiar with the discussions said the EU has abandoned its proposed export tax on aluminum scrap ^[5]. This is a single-sourced diplomatic-economic item — flag for verification.

4. Overnight Markets and the Gold Call

• **[NEW] SHFE base metals (overnight):** copper -0.2%, aluminum -0.79%, lead -0.68%, zinc -0.99%, **tin -2.35%**, nickel -0.89%; alumina main -2.12%, cast aluminum main -0.75% ^[6].
• **[NEW] SHFE blacks:** stainless -0.81%, iron ore -1.04%, rebar -0.48%, HRC -0.57%, coking coal -1.46%, coke -1.74% ^[6].
• **[NEW] LME (overnight):** copper +0.31%, aluminum -0.55%, lead -0.42%, zinc +0.22%, **tin -1.69%**, nickel -0.6% ^[6].
• **[NEW] Precious metals:** COMEX gold -0.39% (third weekly loss, -1.93% WoW), COMEX silver +0.14% (third weekly loss, -2.59% WoW); SHFE gold -0.04% (-2.96% WoW), SHFE silver +0.49% (-4.49% WoW) ^[6].
• **[ONGOING] Goldman gold view:** maintains 2026 year-end fair value at $4,900/oz with net upside risk, but flags two-way path volatility ^[6].
• **[NEW] Macro trigger (per SMM headline):** US August CPI consolidated rate-hike expectations, framing the metal selloff ^[6].

5. Source Quality and What Would Falsify the Story

• **Thin sourcing flag:** the EU aluminum scrap tax decision and the "hidden inventory" lithium narrative both rest on single attributions (people familiar with the discussions ^[5]; industry insider ^[4]). Treat as leads, not confirmed policy or data.
• **Promotional / non-tradeable content:** items ^[7] and ^[8] are marketing copy and event recap with no tradeable claims; excluded from the read ^[7][8].
• **Falsification tests:** an SHFE retest and daily close above 110,000 yuan/ton, or LME back through $14,875, would invalidate the copper top ^[1][2]. A sustained LC2701 close back above 140,000 yuan/ton would invalidate the supply-overhang narrative ^[4].
• **Decisive next inputs:** Indian response to the EU retreat ^[5]; SHFE weekly inventory and LME open-interest data ^[1]; whether the US August CPI print tips the dollar and rate path further against metals ^[6].