〔Day Digest〕Fed September Hike Bets Climb to ~86% on Sticky Core CPI and Oil Surge, LME Copper Below $14,100 and SHFE Tin 3.81% — Tariff Premium Unwinds but SHFE Stocks Hit Two-Year Low

0. Macro Backdrop

The session's dominant mechanism is a hawkish Fed repricing. US August CPI came in at +0.4% m/m and +3.4% y/y as expected, but core CPI ran 0.1 percentage point above expectations; combined with an upside PPI surprise and surging international oil (SC crude +8%+ intraday), this pushed the implied Fed September rate hike probability to roughly 86% ^[1][2][3][4]. US Treasury yields firmed, and industrial metals bore the brunt ^[3]. Bloomberg's lead tied the copper slip directly to traders boosting Fed hike bets on hotter US inflation ^[5]. A-share strategists flagged the same channel: stronger September hike expectations weighed on the non-ferrous sector, and only the communications sub-index gained ^[6].

1. Copper — Cross-Exchange Divergence

• **[NEW] LME copper** fell 1.0% to $14,097.8/ton, losses extending through the Asian session ^[7]. Bloomberg and the SHFE close-down note both linked the move to the hawkish Fed re-pricing and a narrowing COMEX-LME premium ^[5][3].
• **[NEW] SHFE copper** closed down 0.75% at 107,840 yuan on the same macro crosscurrent ^[3].
• **[ESCALATED] Tariff unwind:** the Trump administration has yet to rule on refined copper tariffs, per an ANZ Research note cited by Jinshi, and the COMEX-LME premium narrowed materially; COMEX copper inventories paused their accumulation, posting a first decline of over 100 short tons in roughly three months, while LME registered warrants rose and cancelled warrants eased ^[3][8]. Traders had pre-positioned US-bound copper on tariff bets, so the unwind is removing that bid ^[8].
• **[ONGOING] Regional mismatch remains the core contradiction:** combined LME+COMEX+SHFE stocks stand at 1,056,800 tons, up nearly 500,000 tons year-on-year, with COMEX holding over 70% of the total and expanding more than 50% year-to-date to successive record highs ^[9]. SHFE stocks, by contrast, fell 13.05% week-on-week to 54,780 tons, a more-than-two-year low, and international copper dropped 1,901 tons to 14,690 tons ^[9]. LME copper closed last week at 234,475 tons after a small net increase ^[9]. The macro tariff trade is deflating, but LME- and SHFE-side tight zones remain intact ^[9][3].

2. Tin — Sharpest Loser

• **[NEW] SHFE tin** dropped 3.81% to break below the 400,000 yuan mark, the lowest since early July; morning lows touched 3.22% ^{[1][10][11][4]}.
• **[ESCALATED] Supply expectations and weak demand:** the traditional peak season has underwhelmed — national tin ingot social inventory rose 841 tons week-on-week to 10,145 tons, driven by small import arrivals and mid-week producer sales at the highs ^[4]. Indonesian shipments are expected to rise, and Myanmar mine supply is still recovering only slowly ^[4].
• **[NEW] Macro tailwind is fully against tin:** hot core CPI, oil's surge, and a hawkish Fed have lifted US Treasury yields and crushed risk appetite, compounding the domestic oversupply narrative ^[11][4].

3. Lead, Zinc, Nickel — Breadth of the Selloff

• **[NEW] SHFE lead** fell 2.07%, **zinc** 1.94%, **nickel** 1.55% at the day close; LME lead dropped 1.11% and LME tin 1.21% on the London board, with other LME base metals trading within a 1% band ^[1].
• **[ONGOING] LME nickel:** market sentiment is cautious as major producers restart, with the question of whether AI and new-energy demand can absorb the supply still open ^[12].
• **[ONGOING] LME aluminum:** sentiment is also cautious, pressuring prices; historically low LME inventory is being framed as the "last line of defense" — Japan's August aluminum inventory of 246,600 tons, up 23% month-on-month, signals easing near-term tightness ^[13][14].
• **[ONGOING] LME lead:** inventories have been falling but the price is retreating anyway, with battery demand improving only moderately in the peak season ^[15].

4. Lithium, Policy, and Adjacent Markets

• **[NEW] Battery-grade lithium carbonate** (Mysteel MMLC morning quote) fell 750 yuan/ton to 134,250 yuan/ton ^[16].
• **[NEW] SHFE ex-metals:** polysilicon main contract +0.95% at the close and +3.93% intraday; soda ash -3%+, caustic soda -3%+, synthetic rubber and SHFE tin -2%+ at the open; SC crude +8%+, fuel oil +3%+, Europe-line container shipping (OCFI main contract) +2.27% to 2,090.5 ^[1][10][2].
• **[NEW] China mine safety standards:** the State Administration for Market Regulation has approved four mandatory national standards covering hidden hazard surveys and underground lithium-ion battery use, effective March 1, 2027 ^[17].
• **[NEW] UK critical minerals:** the UK added 50 million pounds to expand domestic critical minerals production, on top of prior commitments of more than 200 million pounds, formalizing critical minerals as a national security priority ^[18].
• **[NEW] Sodium-ion battery industrial chain** (Sina research note, September 13): four growth drivers — lithium price hedging, flexible lithium/sodium line conversion, differentiated performance (low temperature, safety, near-LFP energy density), and cost reduction through technical convergence, materials localization, and yield improvement ^[19].

5. What to Watch / Source Caveats

• **Tomorrow:** the State Council Information Office holds a press conference on August economic activity on September 15 — the read-through to base-metals demand will be the next domestic datapoint ^[1].
• **The Fed path into the September decision is the swing variable**; the 86% hike probability is the consensus marker, and any surprise in the August data flow could reflate or deflate the trade ^[3][11][4].
• **Source caveats:** the tariff-delay read is single-sourced from ANZ Research via a fast-news relay ^[8]; the SHFE-tin sub-400,000 print and the social-inventory build are SMM-curated ^[11][4]; the Bloomberg lead is a second corroboration of the macro-copper channel ^[5]. LME aluminum, lead and nickel fundamental pieces are headlines without published body text in this packet, so treat their directional cues as thin ^[12][14][15].