〔Day Digest〕Post-Fed Dollar Softens, China Returns to Copper: SHFE Lead +2.03%, Yangshan Premium 4-Year High $121/t - Coking Coal Crashes 7.78% in Black-Green Split

0. Weekly Arc

The post-Fed recalibration that began after the Sept 17 25bp hike (16 of 18 FOMC members see at least one more move by year-end) extended into the Asian session, but the dollar weakened rather than strengthened, opening the door for industrial metals to rally ^[1]. SHFE base metals closed broadly higher with lead +2.03%, tin +1.97% and zinc +1.59% leading, while coking coal crashed 7.78% and lithium carbonate contracts fell 2.27% ^[2]. The split between physical-tied base metals and energy or battery supply tells the story: a Chinese bid on copper, a structural overhang on lithium and coking coal ^[3][2][4].

1. Copper and the Chinese Physical Bid

• **[NEW] Yangshan premium $121/ton, a 4-year high**; SHFE copper inventory 54,780 tons, the lowest since January 2024 ^[3].
• **[NEW] LME inventory mix**: copper -800t, lead -1,975t, tin -110t, nickel +36t, aluminum flat, zinc +1,050t ^[5].
• **[NEW] COMEX copper** shifted to a net drawdown, with New Orleans deliveries leading the decline ^[6].
• **[NEW] LME three-month copper** closed Sept 17 at $14,491.5/ton, up $259 or 1.82% on the day; Marex senior base-metals strategist Alastair Munro said Chinese buyers have returned, though volumes are not "enormous" ^[1].
• **[NEW] Hong Kong copper stocks rallied**: China Daye Nonferrous +3.6%, MMG and China Nonferrous Mining +1.5% each, Jiangxi Copper +1%+ ^[3].
• **[NEW] SHFE copper main contract** closed at 109,620 yuan/ton, +1.4% on the day ^[7].
• **[NEW] Jinyuan Futures** (per SMM): post-Fed risk appetite improved, the US approved Iran's core delegation to attend the UN General Assembly, Saudi Arabia requested Oman mediate with Houthis for a brief ceasefire, Middle East tensions cooled at the margin ^[7].
• **[NEW] Guoxin Futures**: the Fed's rate landing releases nonferrous-sector bearish pressure, with high premiums, tight balance and seasonal demand waiting to validate providing strong fundamental support for copper ^[3].
• **[NEW] SHFE weekly stock change (the only base-metal build)**: copper +1,293t; aluminum -26,729t; lead -3,685t; nickel -2,138t; tin -593t; zinc -898t; natural rubber +1,660t ^[8].

2. Battery Metals: Lead Up, Lithium and Cobalt Down

• **[NEW] SHFE lead +2.03% led the base-metals board**, with SHFE zinc +1.59% and tin +1.97% ^[2].
• **[NEW] Lithium carbonate main contract** closed -2.27%, recovering slightly from the midday -2.64% low ^[9][2].
• **[NEW] GFEX warrants**: lithium carbonate 41,105 lots, -2,478 lots d/d; polysilicon 25,120 lots, +30; industrial silicon 33,372 lots, -48 ^[10].
• **[NEW] From Sept 22 trading**, GFEX lithium carbonate LC2610 through LC2709 contracts: minimum opening order adjusted to 2 lots (minimum closing order stays 1 lot); transaction fee to 0.8/10000 of turnover, intraday close to 0.8/10000 ^[11].
• **[NEW] CATL** plans a 1.4 billion yuan, 40,000 t/y lithium carbonate project in Yaan ^[12].
• **[NEW] Hunan Yuneng**: second shareholder CATL cut its stake by 17,459,700 shares between June 26 and Sept 16, falling below the 5% threshold ^[12].
• **[NEW] EVE Energy** signed a supply agreement with Fluence, deepening its entry into the AIDC (AI Data Center) track ^[12].
• **[NEW] Electrolytic cobalt** spot 275,000-285,000 yuan/ton, average 280,000 yuan/ton, -2,500 yuan or 0.88% W/W; a Sept 15 short-covering rally to ~28.9 wan yuan/ton faded by mid-week as fundamentals reasserted ^[4].
• **[NEW] SMM lithium-battery raw-materials conference** set for Oct 15-16 in Chengdu; Feng Disheng, SMM Ni-Co-Li research director, will deliver "After Supply-Demand Reversal - The Next Five Years of Global Lithium Battery" ^[13][14].

3. Black-Green Divergence: Coking Coal Crashes, Iron Ore Holds

• **[NEW] Coking coal -7.78% and coke -5.45%**, the sharpest losers on the day ^[2].
• **[NEW] HRC -1.11%, rebar -1.02%**, stainless steel +0.92%, iron ore +0.7% ^[2].
• **[NEW] Iron ore** is set for a weekly gain despite weak China steel demand and shrinking mill margins, per Bloomberg ^[15].
• **[NEW] SHFE aluminum weekly drawdown -26,729t** was the steepest across the base-metals complex ^[8].

4. Precious Metals and the Long Gold Anchor

• **[NEW] SHFE silver +3.98%**, platinum +2.09%, palladium +2.37% ^[2].
• **[NEW] COMEX silver +1.68%**, gold +0.7% ^[2].
• **[NEW] Goldman** maintained its end-2027 gold target of $5,400/oz, expecting tighter US monetary policy to slow short-term gold appreciation rather than change the long-term thesis ^[9].

5. Corporate and Policy: Control Change, Sodium-Ion Capex, GFEX Tweaks

• **[NEW] Hua Xi Nonferrous** signed a framework agreement on Sept 18 with China Minmetals, which will take 51% of Guangxi Critical Metals Group and actually control it; Hua Xi stock resumes trading Sept 21 ^[16].
• **[NEW] Shenmao Group** broke ground on Sept 16 morning in the Shangqiu Demonstration Zone on a 50,000 t/y sodium-ion high-performance battery aluminum foil project, with ~40,000 sqm of production workshop plus a smart warehousing system ^[17].
• **[NEW] PBoC** said monetary policy adheres to the "primarily domestic" principle, with the FX market continuing steady operation ^[12].
• **[NEW] MOFCOM** said China-US trade teams are in close communication on tariff cuts and other topics ^[12].
• **[NEW] MIIT** is soliciting public comments on 10 industry standards, including the "Nonferrous Metals Industry Science and Technology Achievement Evaluation Standard" ^[18].
• **[NEW] SMM 2026 Africa Critical Minerals Conference** concluded Sept 16 in Lusaka, Zambia, drawing 400+ industry representatives and 30+ speakers across copper, cobalt, tin and lithium investment, mining microgrids, hydrometallurgy, green smelting and ESG ^[19].