〔Day Digest〕China-Korea Nonferrous MOU Lands With Sichuan's 3.5Mt Lithium Target; UK Steel Reopens State-Aid Tap — Asia Capacity Push vs Western Producer Strain

0. Weekly Arc

A coordinated Asian supply-side consolidation is taking shape on two rails: the Sept 17 Sino-Korean MOU linking China's 80Mt-plus nonferrous franchise with Korea's remediation and IT strengths, and Sichuan's just-published 15th Five-Year Natural Resources Plan codifying 3.5Mt lithium and 50Mt vanadium-titanium magnetite annual extraction targets by 2030 ^[1][2]. The contrast is the UK's largest steelmaker reopening the state-aid tap, the latest read on Western producer strain ^[3].

1. The Sino-Korean MOU

• **[NEW] Signatories and venue:** CNIA Executive Vice President Jia Mingxing and Korea Mine Reclamation Corp. President Hwang Yong-sik held talks and signed the MOU in Beijing on Sept 17 ^[1].
• **[NEW] Chinese-side framing:** Jia cited 2025 output of ten nonferrous metals topping 80Mt, record-high industry profits, and a "dual carbon"-led high-quality development phase for the recycled-metals sector ^[1]. He framed Korea as holding advantages in environmental protection and IT, and called for joint overseas resource development to lift the two countries' "market influence and international voice" ^[1].

2. Sichuan's Resource Pipeline

• **[NEW] Sichuan's 15th Five-Year Natural Resources Plan targets by 2030:** lithium ore annual extraction of 3.5Mt or more and vanadium-titanium magnetite annual extraction of 50Mt or more, alongside discovery of 10 new medium-to-large strategic mineral deposits ^[2].
• **[ONGOING] Land-protection floors** sit alongside the mining targets: cultivated land kept at 75.4257 million mu or above, permanent basic farmland at 63.0688 million mu or above, and ecological red line at 148,500 sq km or above ^[2].

3. Contrarian and Tail Risks

• The MOU is intent language, not a contract — no project list, capex, or timeline is disclosed ^[1]. Treat the joint overseas-resource push as a stated direction, not a transaction.
• Source quality: the UK item is single-sourced (Sky News) and gives no figure on the funding ask, nor names the steelmaker in the relay ^[3]. Flag as thin until the UK Treasury or the company confirms.
• The decisive tests are the MOU's first concrete project, the pace of Sichuan lithium permitting against the 3.5Mt 2030 target, and whether the steel aid bid forces a UK Treasury response ^[1][2][3].