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September 11, 2026 8 signal desks
Precious Metals 2026-09-11 中文 PDF

NIGHTLY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

〔Day Digest〕Spot Gold Claws Back to $4,357 and Silver Reclaims $64 After Overnight Rout, Yet 67-70% September Hike and Oil Through $100 Keep the Bid Thin - CPI Decides

Spot gold held near $4,354/oz (+0.87% intraday) and silver reclaimed $64.27/oz (+1.13%) after an intraday high of $4,357.6 [3][4]. The bounce came after a brutal overnight session saw SHFE silver down 6.08% and COMEX December gold -1.99% to $4,358.50, the lowest level since August 6 [16][2]. The trigger was a hot August PPI (+5.4% y/y vs 5.3% expected, core +4.6% y/y), surging oil (US crude +7% through $100), and a hawkish ECB 25bp hike that together pushed Fed September hike odds to 67-70% [15][16][5][18]. SGE Au99.99 still closed -1.41% and silver T+D -4.91% on the day [9]. Long-term bid remains anchored by central bank buying — Poland added ~8 tonnes in August to 648 tonnes, reaffirming its 700-tonne target [19]. Kalshi's CFTC-approved gold and silver perpetual futures launch adds new structural pressure on traditional exchanges [22]. The falsifiable test: tonight's CPI.

10 sources 3 min read

0. Weekly Arc

[ONGOING] Gold is on track for a third weekly decline despite the intraday rebound [1]. The overnight session saw COMEX December gold -1.99% to $4,358.50, the lowest level since August 6 and a clean break below the 50% retracement [2]. Asia and the European open then unwound part of that move — spot gold to $4,357.6 (+1% intraday) and silver back above $64 [3][4]. Net: a violent PPI- and oil-driven selloff partially repaired, with the market still pinned to Friday's US CPI release [5][6].

1. Gold and Silver Tape

  • [NEW] Latest spot gold $4,354.28 (+0.87%), silver $64.27 (+1.13%) [3]; intraday high $4,357.6 (+1%) [4] and earlier touch $4,350 (+0.79%) [7] after dipping below $4,310 (-0.17%) [8].
  • [NEW] SGE Au99.99 closed 939.54 yuan/g (-1.41%); Au(T+D) -1.45% to 939.45; mAu(T+D) -1.46% to 939.18; Au100g -1.25% to 942.11; Au99.95 -1.74% to 939.00 [9].
  • [NEW] SGE Ag(T+D) closed 15,565 yuan/kg (-4.91%); Ag99.99 -4.91% to 15,625 [9]. SHFE silver 2610 -5.53% to 15,517 yuan/kg [10].
  • [NEW] COMEX silver fell 2%+ to $63.63 [11]; an FXStreet forecast noted XAG/USD slipped below $63.50 on rising Fed hike odds (single-source/thin) [12].
  • [NEW] Order book (single-source flash): dense short orders above current gold with hidden shorts below; multiple silver short clusters [13].
  • [NEW] Options flow (single-source flash): gold option structure shifted from distant call buying to retreat, with focus on the $43XX-44XX range [14].
  • [NEW] DHF Capital S.A. framed the early Asian bid as a "wait for CPI" trade [6].

2. Macro Drivers

  • [ESCALATED] US Aug PPI: +5.4% y/y (vs 5.3% expected, 4.7% prior); core PPI +4.6% y/y, highest since June; +0.4% m/m, biggest since May [15][16][17].
  • [ESCALATED] Oil: US crude +7%, through $100 [18]; Everbright Futures cited Houthi attacks on Red Sea ports and Saudi conflict escalation [15].
  • [NEW] ECB +25bp, second hike this year; market expects another by year-end [15][16].
  • [ESCALATED] 30-year US Treasury yield hit a new high since June 2007 [16][2].
  • [ESCALATED] Fed September hike odds: CME FedWatch 67%, swaps ~70%, post-PPI trade desk reads 70%+ [15][16][5][17].
  • [NEW] Pending existing-home sales -2% m/m (vs +1.6% expected), annualized 3.98M units, lowest in over a year; 4.9 months supply, highest in over a decade [15].
  • [NEW] Manav Modi, commodity analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services: PPI shows renewed price pressures, partially driven by elevated energy costs [17].

3. Central Bank Demand and Structural Bid

  • [NEW] Poland central bank (Governor Adam Glapinski) added ~8 tonnes in August, reserves at 648 tonnes, reaffirmed 700-tonne target (~52 tonnes to go); unrealized profit 160 billion zloty; YTD net buying 98 tonnes [19]. World Gold Association senior analyst Krishan Gopaul provided the monthly tally.
  • [ONGOING] (single-source broker commentary): Fed hawkish signals and rising real yields insufficient to break the long-term gold bull; weak dollar, central bank buying, ETF reflows anchor the floor [20].
  • [NEW] Everbright Futures: tonight's CPI could widen gold volatility further [15].
  • [NEW] Bloomberg framing: oil and inflation back the hike case [1]; analyst Giulia Petroni pegs the weekly drop at over 2% [5].

4. Platinum and Palladium

  • [NEW] Platinum: SGE Pt99.95 -4.39% to 445.88 yuan/g [9]; SHFE platinum 2610 -5.42% to 433.3 yuan/g [10]; SMM reported platinum -5.85% [16].
  • [NEW] Palladium: SHFE palladium 2610 -4.51% to 302.9 yuan/g [10]; SMM reported -4.85% [16].
  • [NEW] Palladium futures broke $1,300/oz (+0.4% intraday) [21] — diverging from China's palladium selloff; single timestamp, treat as a point.

5. Market Structure

  • [NEW] Kalshi received CFTC approval to launch gold and silver perpetual futures on Thursday, the first non-crypto perpetual futures in the US [22]. The product uses a funding-rate mechanism to anchor to spot without expiry. Kalshi Klear CRO Udesh Jha: "Metals, especially gold and silver, have a story to tell because of inflation" [22]. Crypto perpetual futures cumulative notional volume has reached $44B; the application was filed in July and approved this week [22].

SOURCE TRAIL

Citations

22 records

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    Bloomberg — MarketsGold Set for Weekly Drop as Oil, Inflation Boost Rate-Hike Bets ↗

    relevance 0.62

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    财联社 · 电报现货白银日内涨幅扩大至1% ↗

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    金十数据（快讯）分析师：加息预期施压金价，金价本周料将收跌 ↗

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    WSJ — MarketsGold Rises Ahead of U.S. CPI Data ↗

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    同花顺 · 7×24 直播现货黄金失守4310美元/盎司 ↗

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    上海黄金交易所 · 每日行情上海黄金交易所 2026-09-11 行情：Au99.99 收 939.54 元/克（-1.41%） ↗

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    金十数据（快讯）贵金属期货主力合约集体下跌 ↗

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    同花顺 · 7×24 直播COMEX白银期货跌超2% ↗

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    金十数据（快讯）黄金走势摇摆 市场静待今晚CPI数据 ↗

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