DAILY LOGBOOK

Daily archive

Browse daily archives by date across 8 signal desks, with each digest keeping its own source trail.

01 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-17

16 digests · 5685 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Warsh-Led Fed Lifts Rates 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, 13bp More Priced for October, 10Y Back Above 5% and DXY 100.3 — Asia Equities and Gold Past $4,300 Refuse to Cooperate

8 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed Ends Three-Year Pause With 25bp Hike to 3.75-4.00%, Dot-Plot Median Lifts to 4.1% — Yields Rebound, Gulf Synchronizes 25bp, Trump Demands 1%

8 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕PBOC's ¥159B Net Injection Meets ¥1T A-Share Turnover and Yiwu's Record ¥548.85B Export Print — Liquidity Lifeline vs Fed Hike Spillover

9 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed's 25bp and Warsh's Three Reasons Reset 10Y Above 5% and Dollar Through 100, HKMA Tracks to 4.25% and Pinglu Canal Reopens Southwest-ASEAN - One More 2026 Hike Priced, China Real Economy Plants Flags

7 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕BoE Set to Hold 3.75% on 6-3 Vote as 10Y Gilts Sit at 5.282%; BoJ's 1.25% Hike Tomorrow, ECB October Door Open — Vote Math, QT Plan, and the Food Risk

12 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Gulf Pegs Snap 25bp Higher in Lockstep, BoC Minutes Float Hike Risk, Bunds Pin 17-Year Highs — Sterling at 1.3397, Tera Defaults Jolt EM

8 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Saudi Workaround Eases the Brent Rout: Pipeline Restart in Days, Yet Hormuz Traffic Drops to Three Ships and Diesel Tops $6 — Houthi Strikes Refuse to Fade Before UNGA

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Houthis Hit Three Saudi Pipeline Stations and Iran Strikes a US-Chartered Tanker Near Hormuz: Oman Crude at $132.09 Carries a $24 Brent Premium, Wright Floats the Defense Production Act - Rerouting vs Escalation

11 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Compute Hits Million-Processor Scale as Rhodium Logs a 10x Revenue Gap: OpenAI-Anthropic Out-Earn All Chinese AI Models, the $180B 'AI Trade' Receipt Test

10 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕OpenAI Discloses Six 'Concerning' Model Behaviors; DoD Slams Safety Spend, Loudoun Eyes 12-Month Data-Center Freeze, AEMA Targets 100 GW — Safety Alarm vs. Build-Out Race

9 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Fed Lifts to 3.75-4.00% on a 16-of-18 Hawkish Dot; Goldman Adds October, Deutsche Bank Flags the Shallowest Cycle in Modern History — Stocks-and-Yields-Rising Is Back on the Table

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed Resumes Hiking, Warsh Doubles Down; Cycle Shape Splits - Citi One-and-Done vs Deutsche Bank's Moderate Tightening - as 3.4% Core PCE and Term Premium Re-Price the Long End

10 source channels · 7 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Spot Gold Reclaims $4,330 and NY $4,350, Silver +2% to $64 After Fed's First Hike in Three Years — Banks Add Vaults but MUFG and CICC Cap the Ceiling

8 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Warsh Wipes Out Gold's Pre-Fed $4,400 Spike: Spot Below $4,242 and Silver Past 2% as More Tightening Teed Up — Long-End Yields Are Now the Lifeline

6 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Hawkish 25bp Hike Lands; Lithium Carbonate Jumps 4%+ to ¥131,500/t and LME Copper Stockpiles Climb Past 250,000t - Industrial Metals Brush Off the Dot Plot

4 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Copper Tests $14,800 Tariff Bid While LME Closes Mixed and Lithium Breaks the 'Golden September' Trade — Fankou Restarts, Codelco Slips to End-2026

6 source channels · 3 min read

02 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-16

14 digests · 5359 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕20Y Auction Clears at Record 5.420%, 30Y Through 5.4%, Mortgage 7.22-7.25% as >90% Wednesday Hike and a Second 2026 Move Are Priced — The Long End Outruns the Path

11 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕PBOC Nets RMB 113B at 1.40% as MOF Refloats RMB 130B 3Y at 1.23% and RMB 90B 10Y at 1.66%, Yet EU/US Reopen Stainless and Boltless Shelving Sunset Reviews — Front-End Easing vs Trade Defense Reassertion

9 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕August Industrial +5.2% Outruns Retail +0.4% and FAI -7.2%, as Pre-Sale Reform and Vanke 2027 USD Rout at 53c Reset Property — Pinglu Canal, BOCHK Cross-Border Rails Go Live

9 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕UK 30Y Nears 6% as Post-Truss Long-Duration Cut Fails, While Japan Oil Bill +58.7% Deepens Trade Drag and ¥2.886T 'Mrs. Watanabe' Shorts Pile In - BoJ-Fed Hike Week Squeezes DM Long End

10 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Global Yields Hit 2008 Highs, Pin Sterling at One-Month Lows and JPY at 155.43 as ECB/BoE Hike Bets Outrun Officials' Caution — UK CPI Tests the Gap

9 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Traffic Falls to Four Vessels as Saudi East-West Pipeline Stays Shut, Forcing ~20Mb Spot Pivot Through Oman; VLCC Tops $1M/Day, WTI Past $106, Fed Priced 95% for 25bp - Houthi Capture of Mocha and Perim Puts Bab el-Mandeb in Play

8 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Yanbu Halts Loading After East-West Pipeline Knockout; WTI to $105.83, VLCC to Asia $44.8M, Hormuz '50% Back' - Two Seafarers Missing, IRGC Says Third US Drone Down

12 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕AI Safety Chorus Swells as TSMC Brands Models 'Three-Year-Old Superman,' Anthropic's Slowdown Call Meets Trump-Huang 'Completely Aligned' Line - No-Pause Coalition Intact

8 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕'Dovish Hike' Locks In 25bp at ~95% as Citi, Goldman Frame 'No-Signal' Path — BNP Sees Six, Warsh Press Conference Is the Real Trigger

9 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Bank Consensus Flips Hawkish on September Fed: Wells Fargo Cuts S&P 500 to 7,700, UBS Holds $1.2T AI Capex, 10Y UST at 4.96% — Defensive Hike or Cycle Restart?

10 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Holds $4,300 Against a 5.4% 30Y and an 86% Priced Hike; Silver Adds 2%+ on Credibility Bid - Colombo's $5,000 Hinges on a Hold

10 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕COMEX Gold Settles at $4333.4 as 92-93% Hike Odds and 5% 10Y Yield Stack Against $107 Oil Bids — Silver Inverts to $64.19, Palladium Adds 1% to $1319

9 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Lithium Cracks 4% to 124,320 Yuan/Ton on Carbonate Rout; Nickel Drops 3% After Indonesia Halves 1.2% Ore Cost; Copper Holds Into Fed - Glencore Faces $2B Singapore Suit

6 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕AI-Safety Warning Cracks Compute Metals as 10Y Tops 5% and Fed September Odds Climb >90%; DRC's 1.72Mt H1 Record and Congo Task Force Counter; Tariff Trade Still Unwinding

8 source channels · 4 min read

03 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-15

16 digests · 5512 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕10-Year Pierces 5% With ~92% September Hike Priced, Brent Near $107, Chips Shed ~$500B — Bessent Testifies at 22:00 Into Warsh's FOMC

15 source channels · 6 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Hike Priced at 84-90% Meets a Long-End Revolt: 10Y Cracks 5%, 30Y Hits ~5.40% as $40T Debt and the Hormuz Premium Test Warsh

8 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕August Data Splits: IVA Reaccelerates to 5.2% with High-Tech at 16.7% and PPI +0.4% MoM, Yet Retail Slows to 0.4% and Social Financing Slips to 7.2% — September Becomes the Real Transmission Test

8 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕5B Yuan Poly CB Reopens Property Refinancing, Tier-1 Resale Jumps 9-27%, Yet August TSF Misses at 1.66T and RMB Drifts 6-15 Pips Softer - Consumption Pivot vs Cooling Credit

8 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Long-End Blowout Tests ECB Credibility: German 30Y at 3.92%, French 30Y at 5.18% as ZEW Cracks and Spain CPI Hits 4.3% — BOJ Friday Verdict, Lagarde Exit Looms

9 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Hawkish Pricing Lifts UK 2Y to 4.918% as Markets Embed Five BoE and Four ECB Hikes by End-2027, Yet Citadel Says Energy-Driven Slowdown Will Cap European Yields — BoJ September 18 Decides Next

8 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Volumes Halve to ~8mb/d as Saudi East-West Pipeline Loses 2.5-5mb/d; WTI Holds $102, BofA Tags $150 Brent - Iran Rejects Trump's Deal Talk as Houthis Seize Red Sea Islands

12 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Trims 4% of Global Supply as VLCC Rates Top $1M/Day and Brent Jumps 4% to $109.18 - US-Iran Narratives Split on Hormuz Tanker Cause, Trump Demands 'Escort Compensation'

8 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕AI Capex Spreads Beyond Hyperscalers: UBS Lifts S&P 500 to 8,100 by 2026, Gold to $5,000 — Even as CoreWeave Drops 1% Pre-Market on Slowdown Tag

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Trump Calls AI Fears a 'Hoax' on Huang Call as Gas Turbines Sell Out to 2030, OpenAI Slides IPO to 2027 at $852B Mark, Kioxia Eyes $10B US ADR - Denial Meets Bottleneck

9 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕S&P 2026 Targets Diverge 7700-8100 as Fed Hike Priced and 10Y Breaks 5%; AI Trade Cracks 45% Even as UBS Sees Broadening - Diffusion vs Long-End Stress

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Bond Vigilantes Force the Fed's Hand: September Hike Odds Hit 87-90% as 10Y Tops 5% and 30Y Hits a 2007 High, Yet BofA's Top Bear Lifts S&P 500 to 7,400 — Wednesday Dot Plot Decides

9 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Slides Through $4,300 on 10Y Above 5% and Oil-Led Hike Bets — Silver -1%, India Still Takes $2.3B in August

10 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Cracks $4,300 on 88% September Hike Odds and Near-5% Yields — August's Record $18B ETF Inflow Is the Contradiction

7 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Indonesian Drought Caps Excelsior at 30% as Bernstein Cuts Long-Term Nickel to $19,000/t, While Copper Holds $14,000 on LME Contango — Supply Hit vs. Forecast Reset

8 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Copper Crashes 3% to $6.29/lb on COMEX and LME 3-Month Under $14,000 While US War Department Commits $450M to Tungsten and DOE Funds Four Mine-of-Future Sites - Cyclical Liquidation vs Strategic-Metals Securitization

6 source channels · 3 min read

04 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-14

15 digests · 4979 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Hike Odds Top 85% for September 16 to 3.75%-4.00% as 86 of 101 Economists Concur; Brent Jumps 3%+ on a Saudi Pipeline Halt and the 30Y Sits at 5.362% - Sell-Side Paths Now Span One to Six Hikes

11 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕September Hike Locked at 85-90% on 3.4% August CPI, 10Y Nears 5% on +57bp YTD Move; Warsh Caught Between Preventive Tightening and Trump's No-Win

9 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Households Shed 1.03T in Loans, Park 6.99T in Deposits; Wealth Managers Push 1.98T Into Equity Products as August Auto Retail Drops 23% — Savings Glut vs Spending Drought

9 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕ECB Lifts to 2.50% as US PPI Hits 5.4% and 30Y Mortgage at 6.85% One-Year High; PBOC Front-Loads ¥60bn/Day into China's Completed-Home-Sales Reset - Funding Cost vs Liquidity Cushion

7 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕BoJ Set to Lift to 1.25% (31-Year High) as Bessent Tests Ueda; UK 30Y Touches 5.9506% Since March 1998, ECB Hawks Re-Engage on Gas

11 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕BoJ Priced for 1.25% With 10Y JGB at 2.99% and Yen at 153, But M2 Near 2% Says Tightening Is Already Binding - Japan, US, UK Decide in Seven Days

6 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Three Corridors Under Simultaneous Squeeze: Hormuz Talks Slips, Saudi Pipeline Shuts, Brent Tops $108 — Europe Gas at Dec 2022 High, US Drone Reportedly Downed

14 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Saudi Pipeline Hit, Hormuz Talks Scrapped: WTI/Brent +3%, European Gas +3.8% — No New Omani Date, Trump Floats Post-War 'Take' of Iranian Oil

6 source channels · 3 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕'Decel Chorus' Hammers Chips and Optics, Intel -5%+, Corning/Coherent -6%, Zhipu Slides ~10% - Yet Zhipu Pitches a ~$5B Raise Into the Rout

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Vera Rubin and 800VDC Open a New AIDC Power Cycle as Anthropic Books a Second Profitable Quarter on $11.5B Q2 Revenue - Yet a CEO Triumvirate Calls to Brake and Asian Capex Indices Brace for Volatility

12 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Pre-FOMC Repricing Locks In ~90% Odds for a 25bp Hike; One-and-Done Caps the Path as Diesel, 30Y and AI-Bubble Warnings Stack — Buy the News, or Buy the Dip?

7 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕September Hike Priced at 87-90% as August CPI Lands In Line; A-Shares Brace for the Day-After, BSE Quality Tilt, and the Vera Rubin Power Cycle - Oil Caps the Ceiling

7 source channels · 6 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Cracks $4,320, Silver Tumbles 3% on ~90% September Hike Odds, Yet $4,300 Anchors the Structural Bid — Fed Verdict Decides

12 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Gaps Down to $4,330 on Rate-Hike Consensus as Silver Slides 1% to $63.8 — Tianfeng Sees More Pain While a 'Word' in Next Week's Fed Verdict Looms

2 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Fed September Hike Bets Climb to ~86% on Sticky Core CPI and Oil Surge, LME Copper Below $14,100 and SHFE Tin 3.81% — Tariff Premium Unwinds but SHFE Stocks Hit Two-Year Low

5 source channels · 5 min read

05 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-13

12 digests · 1611 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕G7 Hawks Sync Around Warsh's Hike-or-Credibility Moment: Core CPI +0.3% m/m, Oil Back Above $100, BoJ to 1.25% — FOMC Vote Split Is the Last Unknown

4 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Hike Odds Climb to 83-90% as Energy-Driven Inflation Hardens the Fed Path — Warsh Faces Inflation-Weary Markets and Agati Flags Policy-Error Risk

3 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Fed Coin Flip Meets China's August Print as AI-Led Exports Risk a Q4 Stall, EU Weighs PET Safeguards - Hormuz Talks Open

6 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕26 Trillion Yuan 'Six Networks' Re-anchors the 15th Plan Around Compute and Grids, While QDII Quotas Drain and Sept-15 Exit Rules Draw a Pre-Emptive Rebuttal - Domestic Tap Wide, Outbound Channel Narrow

8 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Carney Pitches Canada as EU 'Associate Member' to Cut US Dependence; BoE/BoJ Hike Bets Build, Osborne Calls Brexit 'a Mess' — Pivot to Europe vs Synchronized Tightening

5 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕BRICS Steps Up De-Dollarization Push as Ukraine's War Bill Tops $10B in Damages, $40B in Export Risk; Lagarde Sets 2027 ECB Exit

5 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Tanker Strike Kills One Off Hormuz as Iran Says Strait Won't Reopen Despite Oman Deal; Houthis Take Bab el-Mandeb, Saudi Pipeline Closed — ~4-5% of Global Supply at Risk

8 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕100 Vessels Redirected in 60 Days as Iran-Oman MoU Stops Short of Reopening Hormuz — $100 Brent, the Houthi Perim Landing, and Monday's Oman Meeting Decide the Path

10 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕$5B Zhipu Zero-Coupon CB and 20% Oracle GPU Repricing Flood AI Capex — Anthropic-Altman-Musk Slowdown Chorus Caps Chip Stocks Down 14% from June

10 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Musk, Altman Back Amodei's Slowdown as OpenAI Pulls 2026 IPO to 2027 and Zhipu Adds $5B - Yet Agents Already Breached Hugging Face

12 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕September Hike Odds Top ~90% as US 10Y Nears 5% and Brent Tests $100, FOMC 'Boot Landing' Becomes A-Share Catalyst - Geopolitical Tail Priced Second

10 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Goldman: Earnings, Not Yields, Anchor the Bull as 30Y Hits 5.3% Near 20-Year High; WTI Past $100 on Hormuz; Fed September Hike Odds Top 80%

3 source channels · 3 min read

06 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-12

16 digests · 1877 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Hot August CPI Locks the September Hike: Goldman Flips to 25bp, 16/20 Banks and ~90% Market Pricing Converge; 'Bessent Put' Caps the Long End at 2Y 4.64% - Certainty vs. Curve Backstop

8 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Core CPI +0.3% m/m Locks September Hike at ~85-90%, TD Flips to Three Hikes, MUFG Warns of 'Policy Error' - Long End Stages 'Credibility Rally' on Warsh's 'Inflation Is an Option' Trade

11 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕BRICS 2027 Handover and 70% NEV Target Anchor the Structural Tape as 800B Policy Tool Cracks Open Fiscal Step-Up - Industrial Profits Cool to 17.6% Against Sub-Seasonal PMI

11 source channels · 7 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕State Council Stack Prints Three Policy Directives in One Sitting; Shenzhen Land Auction Clears 100%+ Premium; US Core CPI Sticks at 0.3% m/m — Onshore Easing vs External Stickiness

6 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Brent Past $100 Forces ECB's Kocher to Flag Further Hikes; 4.5% Weekly Yen Surge and $62B GPIF Repatriation Bet Point to Carry Unwind — Euro Area Splits as France Slips to 0.4%

7 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Synchronized Tightening Builds Into Super Central Bank Week; UK Posts 0.4% July GDP Surprise, Italy/Saudi Hold Investment Grade, EM Debt Inflows Hit $11.2B - BoE and BoJ Decide

12 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕US Narrows Hormuz Escort to Two Daily Windows While Iran Ties Reopening to Blockade End and Trump Claims 'We Control' the Strait - Pipeline Bypass Shut, Seven Vessels Transit

6 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Houthis Seize Bab al-Mandeb, Knock Out Saudi's 5 mb/d Bypass as VLCC Rates Hit 4.5x — Brent Touches $110 Before 3% Pullback, Monday Iran-Gulf Talks Decide

11 source channels · 3 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕China Compute Push: Mobile Pledges 7GW AIDC and 0.04 dB/km Fiber Records Stack as Dell Jumps 12% on Oracle's $90-95B Capex - Yet Embodied AI Financing 'Effectively Over'

7 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕From Extensive to Precise: ¥1B Chengdu Token Vouchers, ¥4T Compute Plan, $10B Nvidia-Anthropic Talks, and a 6TB Credential Leak - Capex-to-Revenue Proof Pending

10 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕August Core CPI Breaks the Hike Door: Sell-Side Locks September 25bp as Base Case, BMO Frames 'Three Hikes' to 4.25-4.5%, Yet Gold, Stocks, and Long-End Yields All Rise - Warsh Credibility Test on the 16th

6 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Three Banks Flip to a September 25bp Hike in One Session, 30Y Back Above 5.3% with Brent Through $107 — The Hawkish Cluster Reprices the Curve

7 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕'The Next Trillion' Outweighs the Fed for Gold as Post-CPI Hike Bets Heat Up — Options Split: Near-End Two-Way Build, Far-End Bulls Withdraw

3 source channels · 2 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Core CPI Beat Whipsaws Gold From $4,300 to $4,400; Dip-Buyers Close at $4,348.11 — Goldman Warns Dealer-Hedge Unwind Cuts Both Ways

7 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Copper's 10-Week Run Snaps at $14,875: First Weekly Loss in Six Months, Lithium Breaks 140,000 Yuan/Ton, EU Drops Aluminum Scrap Tax — Tin and Alumina Lead the Overnight Slide

5 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed Hike Odds Lift to ~70% and US Tariff Plan Stalls as SHFE Copper Drops 2.45% to 108,990 Yuan, While LME Holds $14,240/t and Citi Anchors $15,000/t — Macro Repricing vs Supply Squeeze Split

6 source channels · 4 min read

07 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-11

16 digests · 5082 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Diesel at $6, 10-Year Cusp of 5% and Stocks Four Days Red - Tonight's CPI Sits Between Warsh's ~70%-Priced Hike and Gundlach's Long-End Spike

11 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕$105 Oil and PPI Heat Pin 10Y at 4.95%, 30Y at 5.308% Auction; Market Now Prices 70-71% Hike for Next Week — CPI Tonight Decides

8 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕4,870 A-Shares Down in Asia 'Black Friday' as US 10Y Holds at 4.94% — 30Y at 5.35% Since 2007, Fed Hike Odds Climb From 49% to 69.6%

8 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Cement Stacks 17 Provinces on Coal-Supply-Peak Triangle; 'Financial Power' Five-Year Blueprint Pins 4-Trillion-Yuan Compute Grid, PBoC Locks 600B Yuan Daily Reverse Repo — Yet Brent Past $100, 30Y UST at 2007 High

11 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Energy Reshapes the Curve: JGB 10Y at 3%, Australia 3Y Jumps 20bp to 5.05%, France Flags 5%+ Deficit, ECB Restraint Plea Grows — Friday's US CPI and BoJ September Guidance Decide

11 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕ECB's Second Post-Iran Hike to 2.5% Lifts German Yields to 17-Year High, October Call Near 50-50, Three Hikes Priced Through Mid-2027, Brent Above $105 - Hawkish Camp Resets, Lagarde Succession Looms

11 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Perim Falls, Hormuz Gets a Track: Houthi Consolidate Bab el-Mandeb as GCC-Iran Meet Sept 14 in Salalah — Brent Near $107, Transits in Single Digits

11 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Brent Near $108, WTI $104: Houthi Seizure of Mokha Puts Bab al-Mandab Beside Hormuz — Two Chokepoints Lit, ~7% of Global Oil in a New Crosshair

14 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕AI Capex Pivots from Silicon to Wattage: ~75GW Behind-the-Meter Orders and a ~$284M LG CNS GPU Buy Stack Up, Microsoft Targets ~38GW by 2032 - Power Now Sets the Pace

7 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕$46B UAE-Germany Pact, OpenAI's $200 Pro Freeze, and Nvidia's 27% Grace Blackwell Beat — Capital Flood Meets the Memphis Outage and the Compute-per-Watt Reset

9 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕UBS Abandons Front-End Bull Lean, Lifts 10Y Target to 4.80% as 2Y Touches 4.596% — BofA Flags 'Complacency' as 30Y Hits June 2007 High and $14.2B Exits US Stocks

10 source channels · 7 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Druckenmiller Brands Fed Doves 'Absurd' as 30Y Clears 5.36% — UBS Adds Two Hikes, HSBC Lifts 2026 Commodities to +22%, AI Debt Queued for 2027

8 source channels · 6 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Spot Gold Claws Back to $4,357 and Silver Reclaims $64 After Overnight Rout, Yet 67-70% September Hike and Oil Through $100 Keep the Bid Thin - CPI Decides

10 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕PPI Beat and $100 Oil Drag Gold to $4,315, Silver Off 5.4%; Fed Hike Odds Climb to ~70-72% — CPI Decides the Break

6 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Tariff Pause Hands Copper Its First Weekly Loss Since June (-3.6% LME) While Lithium Crashes ~10% on Battery-Capacity Halt - Two Shocks, One Hawkish Macro

10 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Tariff Pause Flushes Copper: LME -$534 to $14,234, Freeport -9%, Escondida Output -22% Caps the Drawdown

9 source channels · 4 min read

08 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-10

16 digests · 5417 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕UBS Flips to Two 2026 Hikes at ~60% September Odds, Yet Bessent's Tripled Buyback to $6B Can't Cap the 10Y — 30Y Auction and Aug Core CPI Test the FOMC Split

12 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕$6B Buyback Bought Nothing: 10Y Hits 4.837% Post-Auction, Brent Cracks $100, CME at 60.4% vs Reuters 65-of-93 Hold - Signaling Trade Defies the Poll

11 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Five Banks See RMB to 6.5-6.7 as CSRC Logs 644 Cases and 7T Yuan Buybacks; 257-Round Shenzhen Land Sale Prints 125.46% Premium — Discipline Clashes With Demand

8 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕A+H Dual-Listing Pipeline, BSE 8 New Funds and QFII +191.7bn H1 Lift — Yet 7-Year Medical Insurance Slide and 6-Month Import-Led Trade Gap Test the Bid

9 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Oil Back at $100 Sends UK 10Y to 19-Year High and German 30Y to 3.89%, With ECB's 25bp Hike to 2.5% the Day's Pivot - JGBs Above 3% Anchor the Global Long-End Selloff

9 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Brent Past $100, TTF Through €80, and ~90bp of ECB and BoE Hikes Priced by End-2027, Yet Bailey Insists 'No Secret Plan' - Energy Channel vs Central Bank Pushback

9 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Brent Reclaims $100 as Iran-US Launch Largest Shipping Strikes in Six Months; Houthi Capture of Mocha Opens a Red Sea Front — Friday CPI vs. 62% September Hike

11 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕US-Iran Tanker Tit-for-Tat Sends Brent Through $100 as Hormuz Still Clears ~11 mb/d — Yet One-Third of Gulf Oil Goes Dark and the EIA Sees Production Rising

11 source channels · 2 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Palantir-NVIDIA Sovereign AI Lands In-House While Anthropic Outlines 15% GDP Extreme and Discloses Fourth Hack — Scale-vs-Safety Split

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Anthropic's 4th Cyber-Eval Incident Meets a $315M AI Call-Option Bet and OpenAI's Safety Board Hire in One Window; BBB- Lobbying Tests Whether Near-$1T Loss-Makers Fit Oracle's Profitable Mold - Governance Crawl vs Capital Stampede

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕UBS Reverses to Two 2026 Hikes on 3.7% PCE, Lifting September Odds to ~60% — Gold Barely Reacts, 10-Yr Above 5% 'Not Implausible', CPI-FOMC Quartet Decides

9 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕30-Year Yield Re-Tests 5.2% as Dollar Link Breaks; Mike Wilson Pivots Clients To Energy Hedges, Skip Long Bonds — S&P 8,000 Targets Meet RBC's 10% Pullback Warning

8 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Reclaims $4,400 Then Fades Below $4,380 as Brent Pierces $100; Silver Breaks $66 - PPI Thursday, CPI Friday Decide

11 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Settles +1.02% at $4,400.29 as Dollar Weakness Beats Oil-Fueled Hike Bets; Silver Cracks $68 — Profit-Taking Tests the Line

10 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Tariff Pause Sends Copper Reeling: LME 3-Month -3% to $14,309/tonne, COMEX Tops 4% at $6.59/lb, 11-Week Run Snaps — $16,000 Bull Case vs Bubble Warning

6 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕LME Copper Marks Third Straight Record at $14,858.50/t on Tariff-Driven US Rerouting; Brent Above $100 on Iran Tanker Strike Caps the Macro Bid - Squeeze vs Fed Risk

5 source channels · 3 min read

09 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-09

16 digests · 5168 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕At Least One-Third of FOMC Open to Warsh's Meeting-Frequency Cut, Yet $99 Brent, a 4.805% 10Y Yield, and a $39bn Auction Reprice September Hike Odds Past 50% - Reform Tailwind vs Hawkish Setup

7 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕September Hike Odds Cross 50% With 10-Year Near 5%, 3-Year Auction Clears 4.474%, Buybacks May 4-5x — CPI Friday Decides

9 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Spot-Sales Reform Squeezes IRR to 3.6% as 2% Discount Rollback Meets CSRC's MCB Rejection; Beijing's 15th Five-Year Plans Stack Green, 6G, Reusable Launchers — Reset vs Re-Platforming

7 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕800B Policy Tool Leverages 10T Yuan as Delta Trade Hits Record 13.16T and Pork Climbs a 4th Week — Rating Crackdown and RMB Rally Caution Pull the Reflation Trade Back

8 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕ECB 25bp Thursday Locked as Bund 10Y Hits 15-Year High 3.400% and Yen Pushes Through 153 — Terminal Rate, BOJ Path, and Carry Unwind Now Decide

12 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕UK 30Y Gilt Clears at ~5.83% in Costliest Sale Since 1998 as Chancellor Healey Flags 'Too High' Borrowing and BoE's Taylor Defends Restrictive — Yen at Six-Month High

14 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕US Sinks Five Iranian Tankers, Hormuz Crude Flow Halves to Under 2 mb/d; Brent Clears $100 for First Time Since July - Spot Spike vs Long-Dated Caution

13 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕US Hits Kharg Tankers; WTI Tops $94 on a Seventh Up Day, Brent Nears $99 as Iran Vows Gulf Port Strikes - $120 Tail Returns

12 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Meta's Muse Sends META Pre-Market Up 4%+ on Personal AI Agent; DeepSeek V4.1 Flash Set for Sept 10 — Anthropic Researcher Exits Citing >10% Extinction Risk as Beijing Codifies 100,000-Card Cluster and Token Economy

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Astra at 2.5x on a Benchmark Tie, OpenAI Claims a Millennium Math Breakthrough, Huang Says 'AGI Has Arrived'; SoftBank Sounds $10-20B, Korea Goes Free - Three Legs of the AI Capex Thesis on Trial

9 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕AI Narrative Flips Back to 'Physical Bottleneck' as UBS Doubles Down on 2026 Hikes and Hormuz Refined Flow Falls to 35% - Memory Squeeze Extends to 2027

8 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕10Y Near 5% Becomes the Equity Trigger as AI Capex Demands 38GW of Gas Turbines, Brent Lifts to $90 — DB: End of Financial Repression, Not Fiscal Doom

8 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Tops $4,390 and Silver Breaks $66.9 on COMEX Draws and Goldman Call, Yet Pre-FOMC Rate-Hike Bets Cap the Move - Inflation Print vs. Bullion Bid

8 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕NY Gold Cracks $4,400 (-0.88%) and Silver Slips to $66.31 (-1%) as Brent Nears $100 Reignites the Fed-Hike Trade, Yet Goldman Scales Into $4,000 Pre-FOMC and Large Managers Rebuild — Oil Premium vs Reaccumulation

6 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Copper Stalks $15,000 as US Tariff Gravity Drains LME; LME Zinc Cracks $4,000 First Time Since 2022 — Mid-East Flare Pulls the Complex Off Highs

8 source channels · 6 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕LME Copper Clears $14,700 as US Tariff Vacuum Siphons 1M+ Tons Into Comex; $15,000 in Sight — Yet Profit-Taking Risk if US CPI Lifts the Dollar

9 source channels · 3 min read

10 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-08

16 digests · 4954 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Oil Nears $100 as Jobs Beat Reignites Hike Bets; Bitcoin Drops, Bessent Doubles 30Y Buyback to $4B While Druckenmiller Calls It 'Disguised Price Management' — CPI Sets September Tone, Trump Hands Warsh a 'Trade Break' Window

7 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Strong Payrolls Triple Expectations to 162K, Lift September Hike Odds to 58-60%; 10Y at 4.8% Tests SocGen's 5.5% Equity-Crack Threshold — Warsh's Silent Chair vs White House Pressure

6 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕IC Exports +130% Power August Trade to +25% y/y, Yet CGB Futures Close Red and 360bn SOE Recap Signals Property-Risk Takeover: External Engine vs Domestic Funding Split

8 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕300B Special Bonds + 800B Policy Tool Land Targeting 10T+ Project Capex — Yet Jan-July FAI Still -6.7% Y/Y, August Excavator +19.3% Y/Y Front-Run the Pivot

6 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕BoJ Locks 1.25%, Yen Pierces 152.89, France 30Y at 5.0168% Since 2008 — Norway's $75-80bn US Treasury Proposal Meets ECB's 2.50% Open-Signal Test

12 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Yen Decouples From Fed to Six-Month High at 153.94 as Canada Fires C$27.6B Equal-Counter Tariff; Eurozone Q2 GDP Lifts to 0.6% q/q but Wages Cool to 3.3% - Three Fronts, One Carry-Unwind

9 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Houthi Strikes on Four Saudi Cities Halve Hormuz Flows and Push Brent Toward $100; Iran Threatens 'Exclusion Zone' as Goldman Flags $120 in a Two-Front Escalation Case

12 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Iran Pivots to 'Active Deterrence' as Qasem Basir Debuts, Brent Hits $97.52, Hormuz Traffic Drops 28% — UAE-Qatar Break From US Security Umbrella

9 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Samsung Taylor Books Out Pre-Trial on 2nm as Citi Lifts 2030 Server CPU TAM to $237B From $137B; Goldman Says Two AI Catalysts, Not CPI, Decide the Week

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕GPT-6 Astra Restokes the Compute Trade as Broadcom Books $16.7B (+221% YoY) AI-Chip Quarter, Storage Bid Spreads to Asia - Malaysia Tilts to Huawei Ascend Despite US Warning

10 source channels · 7 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Hike Odds Pin at 60% Pre-Payrolls as Barclays Flips Bearish on European Quality, Goldman Lifts Nestle 2.3% and the AI Bond Pipeline to $60bn — Currie Doubles Down on Hard Assets

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Two 2026 Hikes Priced, Brent Lifted to $85, Long End 'Loses Anchor' — UBS and Deutsche Bank Split on How Far the Fed Has to Go

9 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Whipsaws: Early $4,435 Spike Fades to $4,410 as 60% September Hike Odds and $97 Brent Counter Yen-Led Dollar Drop; Silver Adds 1% - US CPI Decides

12 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Holds $4,400 Floor Into FOMC as Goldman Flags $4,000 Buy Zone; Silver Drifts in $60-$70 Band - Jobs Beat Pressures Yet Bull Structure Intact

4 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕LME Copper Tops $14,680/t on Tariff-Fueled Inventory Migration and a 10-Week Run, While Lithium Sells Off 10% on an SMM Reclassification — Supply Squeeze vs. Statistical Whiplash

8 source channels · 5 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕LME Copper Clears $14,530 to a Record on US Tariff-Distortion Bets, While Alumina Slips 1.2% and Asia Aluminum Premiums Soften - Battery Cell Pass-Through Splits the Chain

5 source channels · 3 min read