DAILY LOGBOOK

Daily archive

Browse daily archives by date across 8 signal desks, with each digest keeping its own source trail.

01 · LOG ENTRY

2026-11-02

16 digests · 4806 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Dollar Index Falls to 101.442 as Fed Holds 3.75%-4.00% With Two 25bp Dissenters, but Potential Treasury Overhaul and Credit Stress Keep Volatility Elevated

8 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Equities and Dollar Slip on Fed Jitters: December 25bp Odds Near 80% or Above 86% as a 3.75%-4.00% Hold Meets Treasury Issuance Overhaul

6 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Swap-Facility Hopes Lift Hang Seng Tech 2.85% as Broad ETF Turnover Tops RMB111.2 Billion — Ma Guangyuan: Confidence Matters More Than Money

8 source channels · 7 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕PBOC Re-anchors Without a 15bp Cut as Gold Falls Below $3,900 and Manufacturing PMI Slips to 49.3%

7 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕EUR/USD’s 0.5-0.6% Surge Meets an Expected 25bp UK Hike and 5.236% Six-Week Low: Hawkish ECB, Unresolved Budget

9 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Australia’s Expected Fifth Hike to 4.85% Draws ~80% Odds as Manufacturing Slips to 49.6 and Home Prices Head for Their Biggest Fall in 40 Years

8 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Two Hormuz Tanker Mine Explosions and an LNG Attack Put a $6bn-Plus Asset-Release Plan to the Test While Oil Drops on Diplomacy

11 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Two Tankers, Two-Day Reopening Bid: Hormuz Mine Risk Collides With Already-Rising Shipping Costs

6 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Near-$20B OpenAI Financing Misses $30B Goal as Data-Center IT Capacity Heads to 316 GW: Deployment Broadens, but $4.11T Commitments Meet 5.3x Election Exposure

9 source channels · 7 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕AI Compute Builds a $4.11 Trillion Commitment Stack as 24 Optical Firms Post 50%+ Profit Growth — Financing Scrutiny Tests the Infrastructure Trade

12 source channels · 7 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕AI Stocks’ 13% October Drop and Gold’s 3.61% Slide Reveal a Liquidity Rotation — Yet Ten Chinese Brokers See Rebound Odds Improving

10 source channels · 8 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Goldman Raises Brent Forecast to $105 as All-A Ex-Financial Q3 Profit Grows 20.94%, but an 8.54% Drop and 49.3% PMI Keep the Reboot Conditional

8 source channels · 7 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Reclaims $3,900/oz and Silver Tops $50/oz as Lower Oil Fuels Dip Buying — Liquidity Repair Meets a 75% December Hike Bet

12 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Clears $3,900/oz (+0.61%), Silver Tops $49.78/oz (>1%): Breakout vs. Stop-Liquidation Tension

4 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Copper Splits Across $14,298.165/t and ¥107,810/t as SHFE Copper Inventories Fall 17.93% - Tight Ore Meets Tariff-Stored Metal

6 source channels · 6 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕U.S.-Backed Searston Project Targets 2028, Silver Process Tops 99.99%: Billions in Backing, Yet Little U.S. Domestic Output

3 source channels · 3 min read

02 · LOG ENTRY

2026-11-01

14 digests · 1326 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕December Fed Cut Bets vs. Rebounding-Job Hike Odds: 67% Democratic-Sweep Price Meets a 29% Intel Drop Before the Midterm Window

5 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Two Fed Officials Call for Hikes as Rate-Hike Pricing Reaches 80% — Warsh’s Four Words Stay Unseen and the Payroll Forecast Is Unspecified

2 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕China’s PMIs Stay Below 50 as Listed-Company Profits Hit 5.1 Trillion Yuan: Capital-Market Meetings Set, but Property and Domestic Demand Remain Soft

10 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕October China PMI Falls to 49.3 as Production Drops Faster Than Orders, Making Fiscal Execution Decisive — Regional Growth Gap Widens to 5.7 Percentage Points as Developer Sales Still Decline

6 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕OPEC+ Set to Hold December Quotas as Korean Exports Gain 93.7% y/y and Germany Misses Winter Gas Target — $42.5 Billion Surplus Meets Fragile Energy Security

6 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fund Failures Force Turkey’s Capital-Markets Leadership Change: G20 Deadlock and 422 French Arrests Expose a Fractured Order

3 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Iran’s Conditional Two-Day Hormuz Reopening Bid Faces Four-Tanker Mine Claim - Brent Eyes $120 While Trump Leaves Gohshan Strike Option Open

7 source channels · 6 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Mine Strike Turns Hormuz Risk into an Oil Problem: More Than 30 Attacks in One Month, Brent Near $115 and a Reported 2 Million-Barrel Loss — Diplomacy Opens, but Washington Prepares to Resume Strikes

6 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Physical AI’s Two-Week Surge Meets a 500,000-Hour Data Wall; Anthropic’s Potential Record IPO Filing Meets a $2.7 Trillion Nasdaq 100 Drawdown

12 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕AI Funding Meets a 3% Data Wall: OpenAI Targets $20B, Anthropic Eyes ANT, Investors Trim Tech Bets

12 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕ETF Support Meets AI-Capex Stress: ChiNext -10.08%, STAR 50 -13.73%, and RMB400bn of Inflows Still Do Not Confirm a Bottom

9 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕RMB 700bn ETF Inflows Meet a 13.73% Tech Rout: A No-Hike FOMC and Intel’s >23% Night Drop Leave the Rebound Unproven

6 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold and Silver Plunge on Fed Rate-Hike Bets and Inflation Fears as Gold’s $3,760-$3,700 Downside Target Meets Improving Fundamentals

2 source channels · 1 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Options Turn Cautious as Put Open-Interest Growth Leads Call Additions; Tech Rout Raises a Correlation Question and $3X00 Downside Frame

1 source channels · 1 min read

03 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-31

16 digests · 1892 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Fed Holds Rates as 3.4% Growth Coexists With -0.3% Real Disposable Income — More-Hike Calls and a $40B Florida Mortgage Plan

3 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Two Fed Officials Wanted a Hike and Logan Sees 50bp More — December Bet Meets Labor Costs Below Inflation

9 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕PBOC’s 1.25% Overnight Repo Switch Formalizes Easing Without a Rate Cut — Industrial Profits +15.5%, ETF Inflows Near RMB400 Billion, and U.S.-Iran Strike Risk

9 source channels · 7 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕PBOC Sets 1.25% Reverse-Repo Auctions as China-Switzerland Pact Targets 99% Zero-Tariff Coverage, While Iran Alleges a Tanker Ignored a Hormuz Route Warning

9 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Europe’s 1.9% Defensive Gain Meets a €1.5bn French Shutdown-Weekend Cost as the BoE Eyes 5x Mortgages — Faster BOJ ETF Sales May Aid Takaichi’s Spending Plan

10 source channels · 7 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fitch Turns France’s A+ Outlook Negative as the ECB Holds Behind a December Hike Call — Tokyo Core CPI Hits 2.6% While Euro-Area Growth Is 0.4%

10 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕IRGC Reports Fourth Hormuz Tanker Hit a Mine — Traffic Stays 70% Below Pre-War Levels as Oil Reaches a Six-Month High — Talk Claims Meet Fresh War Warnings

3 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Reported Hormuz Mine Incidents Meet $117.64 Brent: U.S.-Iran Talks Collide With Post-Midterm Strike Risk

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕AI’s $750B Spend Test Meets a $1T+ Nasdaq-100 Wipeout: Anthropic’s Reported $100B IPO Bid, Meta’s Negative Rating Outlook and DRAM Scarcity — Who Pays?

10 source channels · 7 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Capital Meets Friction: DeepSeek’s RMB 105.5bn Round and Amazon’s $80bn Financing Face Security and Credit Tests — Apple-Qwen Launch Is the Delivery Check

9 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Ten AI Firms Carry 16% of CDX Implied Risk While A-Share Profits Grow ~15% — A Valuation-Led Rebound Meets a Funding Test

8 source channels · 7 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Hyperscalers’ $182bn Debt Build Meets $991bn of Treasury-Bill Supply as Democratic Sweep Odds Span 64%-68% - Relief Hinges on Yields and Revenue

9 source channels · 7 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Oil-Inflation Pressure and Treasury Rotation Drive Gold 3.3-3.6% Through $3,900 as Silver Breaks $50: Jewelry Marks Fall CNY 541-548/g From Year Highs

5 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Oil and Fed Hike Fears Push New York Gold Below $3,880 as Silver Breaks $50: Liquidation Compounds the Selloff

8 source channels · 5 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Copper’s $205/t Yangshan Premium Holds Through a 1.41% AI-Led Copper Drop to $14,154.5/t — Chile’s 8.4% Output Downgrade Raises the Stakes

6 source channels · 5 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Copper’s Supply Squeeze Meets AI-Spending Anxiety: LME Copper Falls $202 as Chile Posts Its Lowest Quarterly Output Since 2006

6 source channels · 4 min read

04 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-30

16 digests · 6019 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Fed Hold Defers the Inflation Debate as the 2-Year Yield Falls 8.5 bp to 4.571% - December Hike Odds Straddle 70%-86.3%, While the 30-Year Hits 5.258% and a 5.5-Week Low

9 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed Holds at 3.75%-4.00% as 3.4% GDP and 3.1% Core PCE Keep December Hike in Play — 10-Year Yield Slips, Fiscal Supply Looms

10 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕PBOC Sets a Daily 1.25% Overnight Auction as Yuan Breaks 6.65 per Dollar, but Euro-Area Unemployment Rises to 6.5% - Operational Shift Meets Labor Softness

9 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Policy-Based Financial Instruments Worth 800 Billion Yuan Are Fully Deployed as 27.3 Trillion Yuan of Fiscal Spending Builds Support — Offshore RMB Breaks 6.66, but Fixed Investment Is Down 7.2%

8 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Stronger Euro-Area GDP Meets 67% ECB Hike Odds as BOJ Holds at 1.25% - Sterling's 1.3432 Rally Meets Main UK Mortgage Rates at 6%

12 source channels · 7 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Tokyo Core Inflation Eases to 2.6% as Unemployment Drops to 2.4%, While the ECB Preserves Rate Optionality — BoJ Decision and Lagarde Succession Define the Next Policy Test

10 source channels · 6 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Attack Lifts WTI Above $102 and Brent Above $110 as VLCC Freight Hits $21/bbl - Attack Vector Remains Unresolved

10 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Unknown Projectile Hits Hormuz Tanker; Brent Settles at $114.88 as Flow Is Near 25% of Prewar: $90-$95 De-escalation Versus $120+ Escalation

7 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕AI Capex Enters a Cash-Flow Test: Three of Five Reported Tech Giants Post Negative FCF — Anthropic’s Near-$1tn IPO Raises the Return-on-Capital Bar

9 source channels · 8 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕AI Capex Enters Its Stress Test: Amazon Sees $1T AWS Revenue as Ares Sees a $5T Capex Need and Microsoft Plans at Least $25B in Bonds

9 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕AI Platform Upside Meets a 15% CoreWeave Credit-Bond Yield and China's 15.5% Industrial-Profit Growth — The Bottom Is Still Unfinished

11 source channels · 7 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed's Hawkish Pause Keeps 25bp Hikes on the Table for December and March as Australia and New Zealand Bank Lifts Its Brent Forecast to $105, While Alphabet's $195-205bn Capex Pressures AI Risk Appetite - Dividends Defend

11 source channels · 6 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Tumbles to $3,965 as Silver Slips to $50.70 on Fed Hike Bets — 2027 Oversupply Risk Adds Pressure

8 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Drops Below $4,010 as Silver Falls 3.4% and Hits an 11-Month Low: Strong Growth and Core PCE Revive Hike Pressure

9 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕SHFE Copper Draws 9,744 t, Yet Tin Falls 5.8% — AI Demand Optimism Meets a 92,000 t 2027 Surplus

8 source channels · 6 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Oyu Tolgoi Underground Shutdown Adds Potential Copper Supply Risk, Yet LME Copper Falls 1.04% as Tin Drops 3.47% — AI Demand Meets Rising U.S. Inventories

8 source channels · 7 min read

05 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-29

16 digests · 6444 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Fed Holds at 3.75%-4.00%; Cook and Hammack Dissent as December Hike Odds Near 80% — AI Capex Adds a Cross-Current

13 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed Holds 3.75%-4.00% as the 30-Year Yield Jumps 6.47 bp to 5.37% — Curve Twist Leaves the December Path Contested

9 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Split Earnings Meet Policy Continuity: Yunnan Baiyao Q3 Profit Falls 2.01% While Lanqi Technology Nine-Month Profit Jumps 98.32% - Power Rebound Meets an Undetailed Lagarde Exit

7 source channels · 7 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕RMB800bn Policy Instruments Fully Deployed as Trade-In Sales Top RMB2tn and Green-Power Sourcing Spans 18 Regions — but Downstream Earnings Stay Uneven

9 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Euro-Area Services Softness Meets Lagarde’s Planned Early Exit as UK Credit Splits — Sentiment 96.9, Mortgage Approvals 53,443, 10-Year Gilt Yield 5.29%

10 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Canada’s Easing Space Narrows with 2027 CPI Forecast at 3.1% While UK Headroom Slips to £15bn - A 32% Global Energy Surge Links Inflation and Fiscal Pressure

11 source channels · 6 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Qatar’s Seven-Day Draft Meets “Unacceptable” as Hormuz Opening Hangs on Iran’s Conditions and Three-Tanker Mine Claims Clash With “Clear” Lanes — WTI Near $101.20

10 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Saudi Dual Routes Compress Gulf Premium to $6/bbl as WTI Tops $102/bbl — U.S. Strike Risk Meets Mine-Free Hormuz and Yemen Escalation

10 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Memory Tightens Into 2028 as AI Earnings Surge: 161.98% Profit Growth, a $1.3B 2026 Data-Center Target and Unanswered IPO Questions

7 source channels · 7 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Anthropic-Linked $5B-$7B Data-Center Bond Sale Delayed as Alphabet Holds $195B-$205B Capex - Credit Markets Test the AI Payoff

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Target Revisions Split: Microsoft $630-$650, Alphabet $345-$460, and a 10-2 Fed Hold Tests the AI Rebound

8 source channels · 7 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕CNY620bn Margin Exit Meets a 3.4% ChiNext Rebound: CNY1.53tn Q3 Fund Loss, a 0.80 Healthcare Bubble-Risk Score and December-Hike Risk

9 source channels · 6 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Falls Through $4,020 as Shanghai Silver Drops 3.16% — Fed Holds, but a Liquidity-Stress Thesis Challenges the Haven Trade

11 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Breaks Above $4,080 as the Fed Holds, While Shanghai Silver Falls 1.53% - Oil Above $100 Keeps Rate Tension Live

7 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Lithium's 8.4% Break Below CNY90,000/t Extends a Nearly 60% Slide Since May - Salt Lake Profit Jumps 31.36% Y/Y, Copper Falls 1.05%

8 source channels · 5 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Copper Firms at $14,478/t While SHFE Lead Drops 1.26%: Mine Risk Meets a 25% Record-Price Call

7 source channels · 6 min read

06 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-28

16 digests · 5908 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Fed Pause Expected at 3.75%-4.00% With Core CPI at 2.6% y/y — 7%-10% Hike Odds Put Warsh's Credibility Test and Any Dissent at the Center of December Pricing

12 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed Pause Priced, 5-Year Auction at 4.845% and 30-Year Yield at 5.304%: Warsh’s Communication Push Meets $40.5T Treasury Debt

9 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕China Tech Earnings Surge, Green and Enterprise Loans Grow 8.0%-13.0%, and the 30-Year Government Bond Jumps to 2.059% - Dispersion Meets a Late Rates Sell-Off

8 source channels · 7 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕2.046% Long-Bond Yield, 15.5% Industrial-Profit Growth: Export-Led Strength Meets a 20.6% Drop in Property Sales

10 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Unexpected Hold Meets Defensive Tightening: RBNZ’s 4-3 Split Sinks NZD 1.33% Versus AUD, India’s Excess Liquidity Drops >95% — Yet Canada’s 25bp Odds Sit at 77%

8 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Chile Holds at 4.5% as 11 of 15 Economists Forecast a Canadian Hike and Seven Forecast a 25bp New Zealand Hike: UK Budget and Russian Oil Flows Set the Test

10 source channels · 6 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Tension Lifts European Gas Above €98/MWh as Citi Brackets 2026-27 TTF at €85 vs €154 - $47bn War Bill, Four Qatar Cargoes and an Undecided Trump

9 source channels · 6 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Hormuz Handles One-Third of Seaborne Crude and One-Fifth of LNG Shipments as a Mine-Struck Tanker Burns — Product Flows Rise, but Technical Momentum Wavers

10 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕AI Demand Converts Into Revenue: Vertiv Posts $4.313 Billion and Moore Threads Revenue Jumps 1,773.92% — Cash Flow, Memory Inflation and Capex Durability Now Divide the Trade

7 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕SK Hynix Locks >50% of 2027-28 Capacity — Anthropic’s $161.2bn Compute Lease and CoreWeave’s Distressed-Bond Drop Put AI Financing in Focus

9 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕AI Rotation Broadens: S&P 500 Ex-AI +12.4% in a Week, DRAM Prices Stretch to 2028, but BMO’s Hawkish-Hold Call Puts the S&P 500’s 5.5%-6.0% 10-Year Test in Focus

10 source channels · 9 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Possible Fed Dissent Meets a $110 Year-End Brent Forecast and a £30-40bn Gilt-Supply Test — Hawkish Pricing Faces Dollar Downside

9 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Breaks Below $4,030/oz and Silver Drops More Than 1% to $53.91/oz as Shanghai Holds Gains Into the FOMC: USD Pressure Meets an Unfinished ETF Rebound

8 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Breaks $4,060 and Shanghai Silver Closes +0.93% as One Analysis Flags Silver at 25% Below Its 200-Day Average - Fed Decision in Focus

7 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Lithium’s >2% Opening Gain Reverses to a 4.64% Drop as Aluminum Inventories Hit a Nine-Month Low—Copper’s Price and Inventory Signals Split

6 source channels · 6 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Copper’s $14,474 LME 3-Month Close and $206/t Spot Premium Flash a Squeeze: AI and China Demand Meet Tight Supply, but Freeport-McMoRan’s Sales Cut and Antamina’s Shutdown Put Producer Execution Under Pressure

9 source channels · 5 min read

07 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-27

16 digests · 5561 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Fed Expected to Hold as October Hike Odds Sit at 8.8%, but December Hike Odds Stand at 74.6% — Warsh’s Signal and Core PCE Face the Test

7 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Dollar Index at 101.959 and Pre-Auction Two-Year Yield at 4.705% Frame an Expected Fed Hold — December Hike Returns to Focus

7 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Four Major ETFs Post RMB 19-26 Billion in Five-Day Net Inflows as Smart-Economy Electricity Use Rises 26% — India Recommends $83.72-$143.82/Ton Provisional PVC Duty

8 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Year-to-Date Bond ETF Inflows Reach RMB 241.4 Billion as Draft Rules Lift Non-FOF Funds’ Cross-Fund Cap to 30%, Yet Shanxi Coal Output Is Down 31.3%

8 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Forecast Cold Snaps Put LNG Markets on Test as a £4.5bn UK March 2032 Gilt Auction Clears at 5.036% and the France-Germany Spread Widens to 160bp - Credit Tightening Meets Energy Risk

10 source channels · 7 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Lula Victory Refocuses Fiscal Discipline: Index Futures -20% and Swap Rates +~200bp, While BOJ Hold Expectations Meet Hike Room

9 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Iran’s Sinokor Enforcement and a Ras Tanura Fire Meet $30/MMBtu LNG Risk: Oil’s Diplomatic Reprieve Looks Temporary

9 source channels · 7 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Hormuz Closed, Tanker Struck, Brent Above $112/bbl: Transits at 4 and a Five-Day Deal Push Meet Escalation Risk

7 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕AI Capex Is Forecast at $1.531 Trillion for 2027 as $5 Million-Plus Daily Delivery Penalties and an Inevitable Compute Price War Reframe the Bottleneck — Anthropic's Potential $2 Trillion IPO Test and Repeatable Orders

8 source channels · 8 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Anthropic’s $80.7bn First-Half Loss Puts AI Capital Intensity in Focus: $500bn+ Year-to-Date AI Debt and SpaceX’s $40bn GPU Lease

8 source channels · 7 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Goldman Calls a Two-Week $20 Billion TMT Selloff Deleveraging, Not Broken AI Demand — Selective AI Re-Entry Faces Earnings Growth Slowing from 29% to 18%

9 source channels · 7 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕AI De-Risking vs a 68.9%-71.6% December Hike Bet: Two-Year Fastest Tech Selloff Raises the Return Test

11 source channels · 8 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Breaks Below $4,000, Silver Tumbles >3%: Persistent USD Buying Meets a Fragile Technical Support Test Before the Fed Decision

11 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Holds Above $4,040 as COMEX Silver Falls to $53.32: ETF and Liquidity Risks Cloud the Rebound

6 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Zinc's 1,300-Tonne LME Draw Supports $3,814/t, Lithium Hits CNY99,700/t — yet COMEX Copper Logs a 1,310-Short-Ton Inflow

6 source channels · 5 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Tin Adds $500 to $51,017 as Zinc Gains 1.94%, but $3.0bn Capstone Plan and $833mn Alumina Win Signal a Supply Push

5 source channels · 4 min read

08 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-26

14 digests · 5187 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Fed Pause Is 90% Priced, but December’s 25bp Baseline Faces a 50bp Tail as Oil Meets Statement Language

7 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed’s Expected Hawkish Pause Puts Warsh’s Language in Focus — Investors Look Beyond the Rate Decision to Financial Conditions

6 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Chengdu Posts 5.0% First-Three-Quarter Growth as RMB 97 Billion Funds Housing Renewal, but a Provisional 9.03% Aluminum-Foil Duty and Dual-Track Trade Probes Add Friction

7 source channels · 7 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕17-Month Loan Prime Rate Pause Meets a Two-Speed Economy: 4.5% Third-Quarter Growth Holds, but Year-to-Date Property Investment Drops 20.6% and Shimao Defaults on $9.07 Billion — Fourth-Quarter Support Steps Up

4 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕France-Germany 10-Year Spread Narrows 11 bp to 157 bp as Safe-Haven Demand Fades — French Manufacturing PMI at 49.3 Trails Germany’s 54.2

8 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Brazil’s ~50% Count Flips Back to Lula, While France’s 10-Year Yield Tops 5% and Its German Spread Widens to ~157 bp — Crisis Management Takes Center Stage in ECB Succession

6 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Middle East Oil Flow Tops 24 mb/d, Yet Hormuz-to-Asia Freight Stays Near $34-36/bbl: Trump’s Deal-or-Strike Choice Puts $100/bbl WTI and $120/bbl Oil in Play

8 source channels · 6 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Brent Below $116 Despite 95%+ Safe Hormuz Passages — Nearly 500 Vessel Delays and a Tanker Attack Keep Risk Elevated

7 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕AI Buildout Widens: 3.2 Pb/s Fiber, 3,000+ Satellites and 108 Game-Company AI Investments - RMB 6.63bn Component Outflows Meet RTX 5090 Above RMB 50,000

8 source channels · 8 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕AI Buildout Hits a 5,000-Unit Robot Milestone and 36.94% Nine-Month Revenue Growth at Guangxun, but PC Shipments Fall 21% and Data Centers Face 50% Local Opposition

12 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Goldman Calls a Hold This Week and a 25bp December Hike as the France-Germany 10-Year Spread Hits 178bp, While CATL Sees 1.6x Storage Unit-Gross-Profit Growth

9 source channels · 8 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Large ETF Inflows Dampen the Liquidity Feedback Loop as the 10-Year U.S. Yield Falls to 5.00%, but a 257.6% Margin-Collateral Ratio Leaves the Bottom Unproven

8 source channels · 7 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Tops $4,020/oz on a Weak-Dollar Rebound, While Silver T+D Ends 0.56% Lower at ¥13,017/kg

11 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Clears $4,000, Then Slips Below $3,990 as Silver Tops $54 — ETF Reports and the Central-Bank Buying Narrative Put Confirmation in Focus

5 source channels · 3 min read

09 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-25

15 digests · 1509 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Fed Set for 3.75%-4.00% Hold as $116 Oil, 5% 10-Year Yield and Big Tech Earnings Collide: Warsh’s December Signal Is the Key Variable

2 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕3.7% September CPI Revives Hike Risk as Warsh Faces a Communication Test - PCE, FOMC and Three Hyperscaler Reports Define the Week

3 source channels · 2 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕China Repricing Finds Policy-and-Earnings Support — 700 Billion-Yuan MLF, 5.1% Fiscal Revenue Growth and 93.56% Profit Growth Among 64 Disclosing STAR Companies — but 1.1% Retail Sales, -7.2% Fixed-Investment Growth and a 1.64% China 10-Year Yield Preserve the Tension

8 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Bond Issuance Meets Weak Revenue: Q3 GDP Rebounded 4.5% y/y, but September General-Budget Revenue Fell 0.1% and Land-Sale Income Fell 23.2%

8 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Energy and Fiscal Strain Force Harder Trade-Offs: RM45bn Malaysia Fuel Bill, Nomura's 3.50% Korea Rate Peak and UK Hiring Caution - Growth Support Meets France's Sovereign Stress

12 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕France’s Unrest Meets Contraction as the French-German 10-Year Yield Spread Hits 178 bp — 135 Arrests, 70,000 Security Staff and a 2027 Fiscal Test

7 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Iran Says It Downed a U.S. Drone; Houthi Claims Seven Saudi Strikes as Brent Reaches $117 and October Hormuz Merchant-Ship Attacks Hit 28 — Baltic Exchange Rate Publication Faces Court Test

10 source channels · 6 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Partial Riyadh Flights Set to Return as 28 Reported Strait Attacks and Possible Tanker Damage Keep Oil-Price Risk Elevated

5 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Substrates Top the AI Bottleneck; Nomura Sees 2027 Memory Nearly Locked and 75% Odds for a Continuing Supercycle, While Meta’s $135B Capex Raises the Funding Test

9 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕AI Capex Race Locks Capacity With ~$5 Billion in Substrate Prepayments, While Nearly $340 Million in Copyright Claims Test the Cost of Scale

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕AI Capex Faces Its Payoff Test: 493 S&P 500 Companies Show Flat Revenue per Employee as the 10-Year Yield Drops 17 bp - A-Shares Face a 3,700-Point Bottom Debate

9 source channels · 7 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Active ETF Liquidity Supports a 4.16% ChiNext Jump, but AI CDS Spreads Widen and ChangXin Guidance Implies Only RMB4-10 of Profit per RMB100 of Sales

7 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Oil, Hike Bets and Liquidity Tightening Pressure Gold Below $4,000 in a 3%-Plus Week — Yet Bank of America Sees 16 Weeks of Precious-Metals Inflows

2 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold at a Three-Month Low, Silver Down on Oil-Driven Fed Fears — Vote and Warsh Remain Key

5 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Higher Volumes and Prices Lift Huasheng Lithium Q3 Net 800.58%; Tianqi Net Rises 1,323.97%, While Gaozheng Minbao Halts for Tibet Mining Assets and Huayou Closes $70.90 Million Atlantic Lithium Contract-Rights Transfer - Consolidation Meets Export Demand

4 source channels · 3 min read

10 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-24

16 digests · 1722 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Oil Near a Six-Month High Pressures Stocks and Treasuries as Inflation, Earnings, Consumer Mood and the Federal Reserve Fill a Busy Week - Dow Falls 1.23%

3 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Oil Near $117 and the 10-Year at 4.992% Stoke Inflation Tension as a 25-bp Hike Headline Collides With Pause Previews

9 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Hybrid-Car Understanding Reached, RMB700bn One-Year MLF Scheduled and Five-Region Power Market Starts — Producer Prices Still Split 22 Up, 25 Down

10 source channels · 7 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕RMB 700 Billion MLF Supports Liquidity as 40 Technology Export Controls Enter Consultation, while Freight and Bank-Share Performance Diverge

9 source channels · 7 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Indonesia Cuts Singapore Gas Exports ~9%, Redirecting 31M Standard Cubic Feet/Day to Domestic Power as Korea Investor Deposits Shrink ~51tn Won - UK Budget Must Balance Gilts Against Labour While an Energy Shock Sharpens the ECB Dilemma

6 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕AI Financing Fears Push Global Investment-Grade Spreads to 129 bp and a 17-Month High - Germany’s Energy Buffer and France’s Aa3 Negative Outlook Face the Test

7 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Reported Supertanker Mine Strikes Coincide With a Record Month of 28 Hormuz Attacks as Brent Nears $117 - 113 Tracked Attacks, U.S. Embassy Staffing Cuts and an Unproven Shipping Stop

8 source channels · 6 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Hormuz Tanker Attacks and Supply Fears Lift Brent to $116.72 as Shipping Incidents Hit a Record — Diplomacy vs Escalation

10 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕AI Revenue Exceeds $25B Annualized, Baidu AI-Cloud Growth Is Seen at 90-99% - Capacity, Capital Discipline and Safety Proof Define the Next Test

10 source channels · 8 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕AWS Capacity Sold Out Through 2027 and Orders Stretch to 2028 as CoreWeave Bond Yields Top 15% and OpenAI Faces $10,000-Per-Violation Claims: AI Demand Meets Capital and Safety Friction

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕AI’s Expected $1.1 Trillion Capex Test Meets a 10-Year Treasury Yield Below 5%: Record Tech Selling, $58 Billion in Monthly Bond ETF Inflows and a 7.1% Offshore-Yuan Gain

10 source channels · 7 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Oil and Treasuries Rise Together as AI Jitters Meet a 2027 Repo-Clearing Deadline — Dollar Seen Resilient Into FOMC

7 source channels · 7 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Spot Ends Below $4,000/oz at $3,995.38/oz; Silver Futures Fall 1.92% as Oil-Led Inflation and Liquidations Drive a Safe-Haven Split

5 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold and Silver Extend Weekly Selloff as Crude Above $116 Reinforces Fed Tightening Fears: COMEX Gold -4.22%, Silver -5.56%

8 source channels · 7 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕LME Copper's 1.74% Rebound Faces a 273,750-Tonne Inventory: Tariff Fragmentation and a Potential 1-2 Million-Tonne 2027 Aluminum Surplus

3 source channels · 6 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Potential 2028 Copper Squeeze Meets a 132,000-Tonne August Surplus: LME Zinc Jumps 2.06% as Concentrate Frictions Clash With a Weak Near-Term Balance

8 source channels · 5 min read