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August 15, 2026 7 signal desks
Fed & Macro 2026-08-13 中文

NIGHTLY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

〔Overnight Brief〕July CPI Cools Fed Hike Bets; 10-Year Auction Yield Hits 2007 High; AI Stocks Diverge

July CPI came in fully in line with forecasts, cooling expectations of a September Fed rate hike to 36% from 48% a day earlier [4][2]. Equities ended mixed: S&P 500 rose 0.26% to near record, Nasdaq added 0.54%, Dow slipped 0.04% [15]. AI names diverged sharply: SK Hynix jumped over 9%, Nebius soared 34%, CoreWeave gained 19%, but Cerebras tumbled 16% after hours [15]. The 10-year Treasury auction cleared at 4.683%, highest since 2007, as the US fiscal deficit widened; July deficit came in at $432.3 billion against $346 billion expected, with interest costs exceeding $1 trillion for the fiscal year [12][9][13]. Gold rose over 1% to $4,412 an ounce, the dollar gained 0.22%, and oil prices climbed [15][17]. A BofA executive still calls for three hikes, while the White House CEA says CPI weakens the case for hikes [5][3].

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CPI and Fed Rate Path

July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI climbed 2.5% y/y, all matching expectations [1][2]. The data weakened the case for a Fed rate hike, according to White House CEA chair Phelan [3]. Traders cut September hike odds to 36% from 48% a day earlier [4]. A BofA executive still expects three hikes this year [5][6]. Bonds ended flat after an uneventful reaction [7], with mortgage rates at three-week lows [8].

Treasury Auction and Fiscal Concerns

The Treasury's $42 billion 10-year auction cleared at 4.683%, the highest since the 2007 financial crisis [9][10]. This followed a July budget deficit of $432.3 billion, above the $346 billion estimate, marking a record for the month [11][12]. Fiscal-year-to-date deficit reached $1.8 trillion, with interest costs surpassing $1 trillion [13]. The persistent deficit and inflation above target keep long-term yields elevated [14].

Equity Market and AI Divergence

Stocks ended mixed: S&P 500 +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.54%, Dow -0.04% [15]. AI-related shares showed a clear divergence, with optical networking and data centers outperforming while memory and power lagged [16]. SK Hynix rose over 9%, Seagate over 7%, Nebius over 34%, CoreWeave over 19%, and Lumentum over 13% [15]. However, Cerebras plunged over 16% after hours despite a strong daily gain [15]. A Goldman Sachs strategist warns that the AI trade is no longer moving in lockstep, recommending selective positioning [16].

Commodities and FX

Gold rallied over 1% to $4,412 an ounce, silver gained 1.02% to $65.32, and copper edged down 0.37% [15]. The dollar index rose 0.22%, while the yen weakened to 159.48 per dollar [15]. Oil prices climbed amid broader equity gains and Fed uncertainty [17]. Asian stocks were poised to gain on benign US inflation [18].

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