〔Overnight Brief〕Overnight Metals: Codelco Weighs El Teniente Expansion, Australia Backs Tomago, Indonesia Courts India in Nickel

Markets: Mixed Close Across LME and SHFE

LME copper slipped 0.33% to $14,109.50 per tonne, while aluminium fell 1.50% to $3,313.50 per tonne ^[1]. Zinc added 0.44% to $3,745.00 per tonne, nickel rose 0.36% to $16,890.00 per tonne, lead fell 0.26% to $1,902.00 per tonne and tin dropped 0.67% to $55,535.00 per tonne ^[1]. On the SHFE night session, alumina rose 1.00%, while international copper gained 0.21%, SHFE copper gained 0.04%, aluminium gained 0.58%, zinc fell 0.08%, lead fell 0.09%, nickel fell 0.50%, tin gained 0.35%, aluminium alloy gained 0.42% and stainless steel fell 0.07% ^[2][3].

Copper: Codelco Studies El Teniente Pit Expansion

Chilean state copper company Codelco said its executives are studying an expansion of the El Teniente pit to compensate for production delayed by earthquake risk ^[4][5].

Aluminium: Australia Aids Tomago Smelter

Australia announced A$2.5bn (about $1.76bn) in funding to help Rio Tinto's Tomago aluminium smelter continue operating after 2028 and secure more economical and reliable power ^[6]. The agreement adds 3 GW of generation capacity, with funding shared by the federal government and New South Wales ^[6]. Tomago will invest at least A$1.1bn, including A$100m for further decarbonisation ^[6]. Rio Tinto had previously warned in October that the smelter could close without commercially viable electricity after 2028 ^[6], and in December said it may cease operations at the end of its current electricity supply contract ^[7]. Tim Ayres said the bailout means the facility will remain operational until 2039 ^[8].

Nickel and Africa: Supply Chain Shifts

India's SAIL and Indonesia's Krakatau Steel are planning to invest up to $350m in a stainless steel slab plant in Indonesia with annual capacity of 500,000 tonnes, with production set to start in three to four years and output mostly shipped back to India ^[9]. Indonesia's nickel ore output accounted for about 66.7% of global production in 2025 (2.6m tonnes), up from 31.5% in 2020, while roughly three-quarters of local smelting capacity is held by Chinese capital ^[9]. Separately, African nations including Zimbabwe, Namibia, Mozambique, Ghana and Guinea are banning raw-material exports and enforcing local processing rules, forcing international mining firms—including Chinese companies—to adapt, which the South China Morning Post calls a 'strategic hub' for Chinese industrial expansion ^[10].