〔Day Digest〕Copper Demand Seen 50% Higher by 2040; Aluminum Slips on Supply Relief, Lithium Cuts Emerge

Copper: Long-Term Demand Gap and China Policy Push

Global copper demand is forecast to expand about 50% by 2040 to 42 million metric tons, and the resulting supply gap could reach up to 10 million metric tons, according to S&P Global ^[1].

On the policy side, Tongling’s draft 15th Five-Year copper development plan proposes building a world-class leader by supporting Tongling Nonferrous Group, enhancing its global resource allocation, and encouraging mergers, resource integration and brand output ^[2]. The plan also calls for "black light factory" demonstration lines and zero-carbon copper smelting demonstration plants ^[2].

Looking to demand, the plan pushes high-end electronic copper materials into AI servers, high-speed backplanes and optical modules; key targets include ultra-low profile copper foil, liquid-cooled copper tubes, 3DVC heat-dissipation copper busbars and high-speed copper cable conductors ^[3]. It also aims to embed Tongling’s copper computing-metal products into Hefei’s AI computing infrastructure and align supply with Yangtze River Delta industries ^[4].

Lithium: Output Pullback and Softening Prices

Domestic lithium carbonate output in July totaled 107,700 metric tons (including recycled feed), down 2.18% month-on-month ^[5]. Spodumene-based lithium carbonate output dropped markedly because Zimbabwe ore arrivals missed expectations; salt-lake output rose steadily during the peak season, while lepidolite producers cut output as licenses were renewed ^[5].

Price action followed the supply tone: the MMLC battery-grade lithium carbonate morning price was down 250 yuan/metric ton day-on-day, with the midpoint at 148,000 yuan/metric ton, according to Mysteel ^[6]. Warehouse receipts for lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased 407 lots to 35,508 lots ^[7].

Aluminum: Supply Fears Ease, Power Deals Anchor Costs

Aluminum fell for a second day from a seven-week high after a major Middle East smelter announced earlier-than-expected production restoration, easing concerns over a metal shortage ^[8]. Domestic futures showed SHFE aluminum down nearly 1% and alumina down more than 1% at the morning close ^[9].

Longer-term power security improved for Rio Tinto’s Tomago smelter: a 10-year PPA with Australian and New South Wales governments covers supply to 2038, starting when the current power contract expires on December 31, 2028 ^[10]. All power will come from renewables from 2033; Tomago will invest A$1.1 billion by 2038, including A$100 million for decarbonization ^[10]. The smelter can produce up to 590,000 metric tons annually, roughly 40% of Australia’s output, and Rio Tinto owns 51.55% ^[10].

Nickel and Tin: Selectivity and New Supply

The Indonesia Nickel Miners Association said additional 2026 nickel ore production quotas will be granted selectively, only to smelters running low on raw materials ^[11]. Overall quotas will remain at about 260–270 million metric tons, versus 379 million tons in 2025 ^[11].

On the tin side, Xingye Silver Tin is advancing early work at the Atlantic Tin project—explosive magazine construction, engineering surveys and equipment transport—and expects formal construction to begin in Q4 ^[12][13][14].