〔Day Digest〕Profit-Taking Pulls Gold to $4,385.90 as Fed-Hike Odds Slide to 32%; Silver Drops 2% to $63.68 — Bank of Korea Enters Gold for First Time in 13 Years

1. Gold and Silver Give Back Rally Gains

• **[NEW] Profit-taking after the surge:** New York gold futures dropped 0.8% to $4,385.90/oz in European early trade, after the metal broke above $4,400 this week ^[1]. A Sucden Financial analyst said the 'overall uptrend has not changed,' but 'both markets have failed to hold recent highs,' indicating profit-taking after the sharp rally ^[1].
• **[NEW] Silver leads the pullback:** New York silver futures fell 2% intraday to $63.68/oz ^[2]; spot silver touched $64/oz, down 0.74% ^[3]. Spot gold broke below $4,330/oz, down 0.48% intraday ^[3].
• **[NEW] Policy backdrop loosens further:** Market pricing now implies only a 32% probability of a September Fed hike ^[1], and hawkish pricing is easing further, raising the question of whether the rate-hike option is removed from the table ^[4].

2. Flows and Official Buying

• **[NEW] ETF outflows:** SPDR Gold Trust holdings fell 2.57 tonnes to 1,023.24 tonnes as of Aug 13 ^[5].
• **[NEW] Inventory stability:** COMEX gold total inventory rose 3,215 ounces with no withdrawals, and all vault adjustments were below 10,000 ounces ^[6]. COMEX silver inventory slipped 4,802 ounces, staying in a narrow range ^[7].
• **[NEW] Bank of Korea re-enters gold:** The BOK disclosed a $250.4 million position in US-listed gold ETFs — 679,765 SPDR Gold Trust shares — at end-Q2, marking its first gold purchase since acquiring 20 tonnes in 2013 ^[8]. It is also planning to buy domestically produced Korean gold to diversify reserves and hedge geopolitical and inflation risks ^[8]. Gold accounts for just 1.1% of BOK reserves, versus 69.5% in US dollars, above the global average of 56.8% ^[8]. Scholar Kim Yun-jun said central banks' years of net gold buying have created a demonstration effect, pushing Korea to revisit gold's role in its reserve toolkit ^[8].

3. Shanghai Session and Platinum

• **[NEW] Shanghai benchmarks close lower:** Au99.99 settled at 940.72 yuan/gram, down 0.90%; Au(T+D) fell 1.47% to 940.44 yuan/gram; Ag(T+D) dropped 1.97% to 15,618 yuan/kg; Ag99.99 eased 0.76% to 15,720 yuan/kg ^[9].
• **[NEW] Platinum takes a secondary seat:** Pt99.95 closed at 426.02 yuan/gram, down 1.74% ^[9]. The World Platinum Investment Council published its Platinum Quarterly Q1 2026 report and accompanying presentation ^[10][11].

4. The Test Ahead

• **[NEW] Uptrend versus profit-taking:** 'Overall uptrend has not changed,' but the failure to hold recent highs points to profit-taking ^[1]. The key question is whether gold can hold above $4,400 after the break higher this week ^[1].
• **[NEW] Oil-gold logic under review:** Oil prices are rising again, yet gold rebounded strongly rather than falling, raising the question of whether the 'oil up, gold down' trading logic is failing ^[12].