〔Day Digest〕Lithium Leads: Carbonate Futures +2%, Spot Midpoint 151,600 Yuan/T (+2,250) on Salt-Lake Push, While Aluminum -13.6kt vs Zinc +3.1kt, Lead +4.6kt Split the SHFE Complex

0. Weekly Arc

The session was a lithium story: the domestic futures main contract rose more than 2% for lithium carbonate, with rapeseed oil also up over 2%, and the broader complex mostly green ^[1][2]. The spot market confirmed it: MMLC battery-grade lithium carbonate midpoint reached 151,600 yuan/t, up 2,250 yuan/t ^[3]. Yet the metal-by-metal inventory data paints a mixed picture ^[4]. Aluminum drew 13,642 tons, copper 385 tons, but zinc and lead built 3,116 and 4,556 tons respectively ^[4]. That split, against a policy push for salt-lake resource development, sets up a week where lithium policy meets physical supply signals ^[5][4].

1. Policy Narrative

• **[NEW] MIIT Minister Li Lecheng** headed to Qinghai, Gansu and Ningxia to inspect the salt lake industry and industrial green low-carbon development ^[5]. In Golmud, Qinghai, he visited salt lake magnesium, potash and lithium battery companies, calling for a world-class salt lake industrial base to safeguard national food and energy resource security ^[5].
• **[NEW] He also** inspected clean-energy and green computing coordination, used EV power battery recycling, and a 2 GW composite PV project in Ningdong - tying lithium demand to the energy and digital transitions ^[5].
• **[ONGOING] Demand logic shift:** Copper and aluminum demand is moving from real estate toward AI, power grids and electrification, per Jin10 ^[6].

2. Key Data and Market Read

• **Futures:** Domestic main contracts were mostly higher; rapeseed oil and lithium carbonate rose >2%, while industrial silicon, soybean no.1, low-sulfur fuel oil, fuel oil, live hogs, synthetic rubber, polysilicon and coking coal each rose >1% ^[1]. Palladium fell >3%; silver and platinum >2%; stainless steel and gold near 2% lower ^[1]. Lithium carbonate futures alone were +2% at the time of writing ^[2].
• **Spot:** MMLC battery-grade lithium carbonate (morning session) midpoint was 151,600 yuan/t, up 2,250 yuan/t from the previous day, per Mysteel ^[3].
• **Warrants (GFEX):** Lithium carbonate futures warrants increased 590 lots to 36,098; polysilicon +220 to 22,240; industrial silicon +120 to 33,223; platinum -2 to 5,651; palladium -26 to 5,406 ^[7].
• **Inventory (SHFE weekly):** Aluminum -13,642t, copper -385t, nickel -203t, natural rubber +1,626t, zinc +3,116t, lead +4,556t, tin +516t ^[4].

3. Divergence and Tail Risks

• **Battery metals vs precious metals:** Lithium and polysilicon strength contrasted with palladium -3%, platinum and silver -2% ^[1], suggesting a rotation within the metals complex rather than a broad risk-on bid.
• **Inventory divergence:** Aluminum's sharp draw (-13,642t) signals tightness, while zinc and lead builds point to softer demand in those supply chains ^[4].
• **Warrant watch:** The lithium carbonate warrant build (+590 lots) is a potential overhang for the cash rally ^[7]. If the delivery pipeline keeps growing, spot gains may find resistance. The next decision point is whether the policy-driven lithium momentum can absorb rising deliverable supply ^[7][5].