〔Day Digest〕SanDisk's 80% Margin Guide Draws $2,250 JPMorgan Target and $2,200 Goldman, While TD's RMP Pause Query Stirs QT Debate - AI Storage vs Fed Uncertainty

0. Weekly Arc

The research tape this session is split between AI-memory optimism and Fed balance-sheet caution ^[1][2]. SanDisk's investor day triggered fresh buy cases from JPMorgan ($2,250) and Goldman ($2,200) ^[1][3][4], while TD Securities opened a question on whether the Fed's RMP pause marks the start of a QT restart ^[2][5]. On the macro side, CICC sees a "fiscal-dominant" Fed with passive short-dated purchases ^[6], and Dongwu sticks to no hikes this year ^[7]. The contradicting signals set up a battle between storage-demand momentum and policy normalization ^[4][6].

1. AI Memory and Semis

• **[NEW] SanDisk (flash storage):** JPMorgan rates SanDisk "Overweight" with a $2,250 target on memory demand ^[1]; Goldman reiterates "Buy" and $2,200 target, flagging long-term profit goals above expectations and HBF (high-bandwidth flash) as new AI storage space ^[3][4]. The investor day guide: FY28-30 gross margin 80%, operating margin 75%, and 100% of excess free cash flow returned to shareholders ^[4]. Goldman also cautioned that long-term customer agreements (NBM) need time to prove they can smooth cyclicality ^[4].
• **[NEW] Lenovo:** Macquarie raised target from HK$37.4 to HK$66, a 76% jump, on FY2027 Q1 beat with ISG revenue +98% and operating margin 9.1%; IDG +27%, SSG +28% ^[8].
• **[NEW] Applied Materials:** B. Riley cut target to $700 from $790 ^[9][10].
• **[NEW] Cisco:** JPMorgan raised target to $150 from $145 ^[11].

2. Fed and Rates

• **[NEW] TD Securities:** notes the Fed's RMP purchase pause and questions QT timing ^[2][5].
• **[NEW] CICC:** expects Warsh's five working groups to reform the framework toward "monetary-fiscal coordination"; the Fed would passively expand the balance sheet via RMP short-bond purchases, shifting assets to short-duration instruments and bank credit tools ^[6].
• **[NEW] Dongwu Securities:** maintains no Fed hike in 2026; sees August-October CPI cooling to a 2.94% trough in October, with base effects pulling CPI to 2.56%/2.03%/1.71% in March-May 2027 and below 2% in Q2 2027 ^[7]. It notes traders price 1.04 and 1.65 hikes for December 2026 and June 2027, down from 1.48 and 2.20, and sees room for the implied 26bp hike to be unwound, aiding 2-year yields, USD downside, and gold upside ^[7].

3. Thematic and International Research

• **[NEW] Morgan Stanley (Adam Jonas):** the fastest path to SpaceX's 1TW compute is 2.2bn robots by 2040, each with 500W, producing ~1.1TW across a "distributed inference cloud" via Starlink; vs. MS's own SpaceX model at only 380GW ^[12].
• **[NEW] BofA India (Amish Shah):** firms representing ~97% of Nifty market cap reported earnings tracking ~3% ahead, with aggregate growth of 13% YoY ^[13].
• **[NEW] IEA:** the current energy shock will leave a lasting imprint on investment priorities; key-area energy investment rose sharply from the 2022 crisis ^[14].
• **[NEW] Goldman Sachs (India economist):** broad AI adoption could boost productivity and support wage growth for India's workers using the technology ^[15].

4. Stock-Specific Calls

• **[NEW] Action Education:** Dongwu Securities maintains "Buy"; 2026H1 net profit 172M yuan (+30.67% YoY), Q2 profit 133M yuan (+28.59%); dividend of 1.2 yuan per share equals 83.02% of H1 profit; 2026 target of 15 new schools, 100 by 2030 ^[16].
• **[NEW] Yanjin Puzi:** Guohai Securities maintains "Buy"; "Damowang" spicy tripe sustained growth, "Danhuang" quail eggs rank #1 nationally; forecasts 2026-28 revenue of 66/76/86B yuan (+15%/14%/14%) and net profit of 9/10/12B yuan ^[17].
• **[NEW] Three Gorges Tourism:** Orient Securities initiates with "Buy" and 7.82 yuan target (34x 2026 PE); sees provincial cruise transition with 2025 mid-high-end passenger share at 75%, up from 59% in 2019 ^[18].