DAILY LOGBOOK

Daily archive

Browse daily archives by date across 8 signal desks, with each digest keeping its own source trail.

01 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-07

15 digests · 4621 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕August NFP Beat Lifts September Hike to ~60% as Waller Dissent Fades; Friday CPI and the 10Y's 5% AI-Bubble Line Will Decide - Front-End Hawkish, Long-End Fiscal

8 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕162k August Payrolls Flip September Hike Odds to ~60% and Push 2Y to ~4.42%, While 30Y Holds 5.27% on Term Premium, Not the Fed - Quiet Period and CPI Decide

6 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Steel Slips 4% m/m and Ningbo Container Throughput Drops 10.6% y/y, while a 60-Day Auto Supplier Cash Rule, Digital Trade Plan and Sept 16 Pinglu Canal Opening Stack a Policy Offset

5 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕¥360bn Weekend Recap Clears for Eight Central Financial Firms — ICBC, ABC Take ¥260bn, Insurers Get First Mof Injection, While ¥300bn Bond Supply Tests the PBoC's Easing Window

10 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕European Long End Routed as Gas Shock and Political Risk Meet a Near-Certain ECB Hike: Gilts, BTPs, OATs Lead Selloff, USD/JPY Cracks 155 and EUR/JPY Slides to 179.97

10 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Global Bond Rout Pushes CTA G10 Shorts to Historic Extremes; UK Permanent Hiring Rebounds for First Time in Four Years; Japan Logs Third Straight Monthly Trade Deficit — Inflation Fights Return, Safe-Haven Question Reopens

7 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Tanker-for-Tanker Strikes Lift Oil Toward Goldman's $120 as European Gas Jumps 4.2% and Yen Breaks 155 — Yet Qatar's LNG Tanker Recall Hints at Supply Return

11 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Brent Opens +0.8% Past $95 After US Sank One of Three Iranian Tankers; Iran Layers Exclusion Zone on Top of Oman-Mapped Corridor, 59 Ships Cleared in 48 Hours - Promise and Threat in the Same Week

6 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕ChiNext AI ETF +5% on CPO Shortage and Goldman's 224.9% Target Upside as Astra's 99.9% ARC-AGI-3 Reignites Capex — But AMD/Intel-Nvidia Split Flags Trade Rotation

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia Locks $13B Into Hugging Face and $20B Into Groq While Huang Declares 'AGI Has Arrived' — Yet Beijing's First AI4Chip Policy and Gao's Sovereignty Vow Open a Two-Track Capex Race

9 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Strong Jobs Print Resets the Path: UBS and Macquarie Bring September Hikes to the Table at 25bp, While Marks Calls the Tape 'Euphoria' - Hawkish Concurrence vs Stretched Valuation

10 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Goldman Lifts Tactical JPY Long as Ueda Confirms September Hike; 59% Fed Odds and 4.79% 10Y Frame the AI Hardware-Software Split - BoJ Tightens vs Fed Sticks at BSE 5th-Year Pulse

4 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Spot Gold and Silver Slide ~1% as Post-NFP September Hike Odds Re-Priced to ~60% — PBoC's 22nd Straight Buy Caps the Rout, Friday CPI Decides

7 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕NY Gold Reclaims $4,480 After Friday's >2% Payrolls Rout; Silver Whips $66 — $4,300 Is the Line as September Hike Risk Refuses to Die

4 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Copper Anchored Near 109,410 Yuan as Two-Year-Low SHFE Stocks and LME Squeeze Risk Counter 60% September Hike Bets; Lithium Carbonate Drops 4% to 141,100 Yuan — Fed vs Supply Split

4 source channels · 5 min read

02 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-06

15 digests · 1535 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Strong August Payrolls Reignite September Hike at ~59%, yet Waller and Williams Pull Back, Polymarket Catches Up — Warsh Caught Between Trump Cuts and a 98%-Women Print

4 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕August CPI Becomes the Single Pivot: BofA's 3.4% Core Y/Y vs Citi's 2.3% Frames the September Hike Vote as Warsh and Waller Hold the Keys - 30Y Near 5.3%, NFP Reshapes the Tape

6 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Finance Ministry Pours 3500B Yuan into State Banks, Insurers, Policy Lenders; Aug CPI Test on Sept 9, Shanghai Pins Industrial Floor at 20% of GDP - Recap vs Soft Data

11 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Insurance Law Rewrite Lands With 487B-Yuan Urban Renewal Tax Anchor: Beidou Data Unlock, Inner Mongolia Data Cluster Tour, Sept Logistics Print - Kharg Tanker Strikes Rattle Tail

5 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Turkey Locks 2026 CPI at 28.4%, Trims 2027 Growth to 4.2%, Tags 7pp War Drag; Korean Firms Hoard $76.98B as Won Slumps

3 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕€2.2bn 2027 Greek Stimulus Fits Inside EU Rules; Japan Toggles Cash Aid vs Tighter Overseas-Lending Scrutiny — France Closes US Gold Custody

3 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕US-Iran Tanker Strikes Lock Hormuz in Stalemate as Middle East Crude Exports Drop ~40% from Year-Start, Iran -100% — Carrier Claim and Bab Al Mandab in the Balance

4 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕US Hits Three NITC Tankers After IRGC Missiles at Two Warships; Hegseth: 'We Will Sink Their Tankers' — Iran Vows Wider War, Shipping Calls Corridor Deal Infeasible

6 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Astra Resets the Compute Capex Curve — B200 Lease at $6.42/hr (+11.65% m/m), Cerebras $25.4B OpenAI Backlog, AMD $5B into Anthropic, Yet MiniMax 1H26 Lifts the Model-to-App Revenue Gap

11 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕DeepSeek Anchors a 160,000-Chip Huawei Cluster as DRAM Jumps 385% YoY — Robotaxi Goes 24/7 Next Month, Yet OpenAI's Hidden Thinking and a Wiki Hijack Force a Disclosure Standard

11 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕30Y U.S. Yield at 5.31% (2007 High), Japan 10Y Cracks 3.0% First Time Since 1996, BoJ at 99% Hike Odds — Range-Bound Call Holds in China, but Carry-Unwind and Fed Verdict Loom

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕All-A Two-Non Q2 Net Profit +19.3% YoY on AI-Resource Dual Engine, Yet US Risk Spillover and a 96% Home-Ownership Floor Frame a Two-Lane K-Shape - Earnings Beat, Inclusive-Widen Test

1 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Record Prices Cut China Gold-Jewelry Volumes 30% to 136t Yet Lift Spend 5% on Hard-Pure Pivot — BofA Logs $3.2B Inflow, Stays Long Through Policy Noise

2 source channels · 2 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Daily-Cycle Low Confirmed at 55% Retracement as Bullish Options Tape Meets a Fed Pushback — France Fully Repatriates Hoard From US Custody

1 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕5.56 Mt/y Tailings-Iron and Bayanbaolege Permit Land; Brazil Halts Sigma's Grota do Cirilo — Substitution Meets Single-Jurisdiction Risk

3 source channels · 2 min read

03 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-05

15 digests · 1866 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕162K August Payrolls Lift September Hike Odds to 58-59% and 2Y by 7.6bp, Send Bitcoin Under $80K — Trump-Vance Demand Cuts, Hammack Holds the Hawk Line, Next Week's CPI Decides

9 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕162k NFP Lifts September Hike Odds to 58% on CME, 2Y to 4.416% as Bessent Floats $40 Oil and Trump Demands 1% Rates - Sept 11 CPI Decides

8 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕¥7T Six Networks Push Meets Chongqing's 16-Point Reinvestment Drive — Shenzhen Second-Hand +7.6% Y/Y, Hainan -22% Y/Y: Supply-Side vs Demand-Side

9 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕500bn PBoC Reverse Repo and Wuhan Cross-Region Provident Fund Unlock Anchor a Coordinated Reflation Push, With Bank NIMs Clawing Back 2bp in H1 — Yet 80+ Branded Stores Closed in August

8 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕JPY Surges ~3% as Goldman Flags 'Just-Starting' Structural Repair and BofA Targets 149 by Year-End, While Turkey Imposes 10% Money-Market WHT and Privatizes the Bosphorus for 30 Years

3 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fitch Lifts Portugal to A+, S&P Deepens Senegal Junk as Qatar Stays AA-Negative; EU Gas at 65.85% Pushes TTF Toward €71/MWh, Norway Mulls $75bn Bond Tap

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Tanker-for-Tanker Strikes Drop Hormuz Traffic to 4 Ships vs 15-Day Average; Brent Holds $95.85 With Hedge Funds at 3-Month High — Mitsui OSK Sees No Normalization Through 2026, Iran Battles to US Midterms

6 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Iran Fires on US Navy Tankers in Hormuz as Transits Collapse to Four Vessels, Mitsui OSK Rules Out 2026 Restart: Brent Holds $92.90 and Hedge Funds Turn Most Bullish Since May

8 source channels · 3 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Astra Lifts SoftBank 10% and Foxconn +52% YoY as Goldman Calls It 'the Breakthrough AI Bulls Waited For' — but Altman Apologizes, Seattle Times Sues, Thailand Halts 49 Data Centers

11 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Anthropic Lines Up Morgan Stanley and Goldman for $2T IPO as S&P Fires $7T Hyperscaler Credit Warning - Amazon on AA Watch, Nvidia Bids $2.5B for Murati

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Citi Lifts Gold to $4,800/oz on Q4 Hormuz Reopen as A-Share Non-Financial Profits Climb 14.89% — Refining Margins Defy the Crude Print

4 source channels · 3 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Citi Defers First Rate-Cut Call to June 2027 as ~2/3 September Hike Is Priced, While BlackRock Says 25bp 'Not a Big Issue' for Risk — September 11 CPI Decides

8 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Briefly Loses $4,400 as 162k NFP Reprices Hawks; $40T Debt and 19% Central-Bank Diversification (vs 7%) Hold the Floor - Next Week's CPI Decides

3 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕162K Payrolls Revives Hike Bets: Gold Sinks 2.14% Through $4,400, Silver 3% Past $65; Citi Calls the Dip a Buy at $4,800/oz

7 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Copper Stack Tightens on Cascabel Win, Hope & Gorob First-Concentrate, and Bloomberg Mine-Setback Warning — Cobalt Discounts Squeeze Indonesian HPAL as EU Floats Aluminum-Scrap Ban

6 source channels · 3 min read

04 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-04

16 digests · 4616 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Swap-Implied September Hike Odds Halve to ~50% as Waller Tilts Dovish, Asia Adds 0.8% — 6-5 FOMC Split With Silent Powell and 1230 GMT NFP Decide the Path

10 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Waller Tilts Hold After Vance's Public Cut Plea; S&P +1.06%, 2Y -3.5bp to 4.33%, 10Y 4.77%, Mortgage 6.71% — Rally Meets Housing Pain

10 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Shenzhen Drops 1% as Southbound Exits Top HK$10B and PBOC's 500B Monday Rollover Tests the Property Easing Stack - Liquidity Wall vs. Stimulus Layer

8 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕800B Yuan Tool Opens, 1.19T August Local Bond Issuance Tops 2026 as 'Six Networks' Hit Fast-Forward; August Data Stabilizes, Yet 1.6% 3Y Deposit Rates and Personal Loan NPLs Climb

12 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕BoJ Hawkish Pivot Forces ~2% Yen Surge, Carry Unwinds Beyond Dollar; ECB Survey-Market Gap of ~50bp Holds as Oil Tests $100

10 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Yen's 1.76% Surge Puts 155 Short-Covering Trigger in Play as 30-Year JGB Auction Beats; ECB 'Final Hike' to 2.50% Seen Sept. 10 - Budget-Rate and Gold-Move Warnings Keep Long-End Risk Alive

10 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Traffic Reclaims Two-Thirds of Pre-War Flow as 5 mb/d 'Dark Fleet' Fills the Data Gap, Yet Brent Holds $95 and Diesel Hits an All-Time High - Visible Recovery vs Hidden Risk

11 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Iran Strike Loop Chokes Hormuz to 6 Ships/Day Even as 15-18mb US Convoys Pass — Citi's $70 Brent Reopen Bet vs Tehran's 'Lock Won't Open Without Consent'

10 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕China's 7 Ministries Map 800V Compute Stack and Kioxia CXL-NAND Targets 2x DRAM Capacity, Yet 49 Thai Data Centers Freeze and LAUSD Bans GenAI - Buildout vs Containment

9 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia Buys Hugging Face for $12.93B, OpenAI Ships Astra and Pledges $1B to Cyber, TSMC Equipment Demand Climbs ~90% in 8 Months — Capital, Models, and a Hard Supply Ceiling

7 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕HSBC Lifts 10Y Target to 4.65% on 'Hawkish' Warsh and Nomura's Three-Hike BOJ Path, Yet $30B Money-Market and $3.2B Gold Inflows Hedge the Trade - Rates Repricing vs Safe-Haven and Capacity Anchors

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut Lifts September Hike Odds to 65.1% and 2Y to 4.34% — Earnings 'Armor' and 'Ping-Pong' Equities Test the New Hawk

9 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Rebounds ~2% as Waller Trims September Hike Odds to ~50%; $27T Asset Managers Re-Accumulate with $5,000 Year-End Target — Silver Diverges, Payrolls Test

9 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Tops $4,500 and Silver Clears $67 as Fed Hike Bets Unwind, But NY Gold Futures Slip Below $4,520 - CPI Verdict Friday

8 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕GFEX Lithium Carbonate Plunges 7.41% as LME Aluminum Stock Drops to a 1990 Low and Morgan Stanley Sees First Copper-Mine Decline Since 2017 — Waller's Pause Signal Caps the Split

9 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕LME Copper at $14,334 as US July Imports Hit 225,094t Record; Aluminum Pivots from Tariff Wall to Smelter Incentive - LFP Pricing Faces Wanhua Reset

3 source channels · 3 min read

05 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-03

16 digests · 3107 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕September Hike Odds Climb from 37% to 67% as Diesel Tops $5.68; 30-Year Holds 5% Despite Bessent Buyback - Warsh Hawk vs Sheets Skepticism, NFP Friday Decides

9 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕30Y Holds 5.26% as Iran War and Tariffs Push Hike Odds to 60-69%, While ADP Prints 37K and Beige Book Splits — Fed Hawks Circle the Sept 15-16 Meeting

13 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Planning Push Meets Demand Softness: Four 15th Five-Year Plans Drop as August Auto Retail Slides 19% YoY and Shenzhen Used-Home Filings Reset Below 5,000

10 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕CNH Anchors at 6.72 as PBoC Vows 'Accommodative' at G20, Yet Property Drag Caps Q2 Demand — DRG 3.0 Reshapes Hospital Pay, Electronics Output +15.4% Carries the Open

11 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Japan 30Y Auction Prints 3.79x Cover as Yen Surge Stokes Intervention Talk, G7 Long Ends Sit at Multi-Decade Highs - BoJ's 25bp September Hike Fully Priced Into a 10Y at 3%

11 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Intervention Whispers Lift JPY 1.2% While Bond Vigilantes Roar Back: Japan 30Y at 30-Year High, UK Gilts Since 1998, BOC Hawks at 2.25% — Hike Path or Yield Path

14 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Transit Craters to 6 Ships as LNG Doubles Pre-War and Saudi Exports Hit 9-Year Low, Yet Trump Calls Strikes 'Short-Lived' - Logistics vs Political Frame Diverge

9 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕US Blockade Redirects 86 Vessels, Iran Retaliates Against Saudi Tanker Sadr; Hormuz Still Moves 17M Barrels, Oil at 5-Week High - Reopening Conditional on US Concessions

13 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕HPE Beats on $12.2B but Names Memory the Bottleneck; 15 GW Power Gap and $3.1T Off-Balance Sheet Now Cap the $1.2T AI Buildout — Astra Under Government Review

6 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Broadcom Lifts FY26 AI Guide to $58B (+186%) and Targets $115B in 2027 on Meta 3GW and Anthropic XPU Wins — Q4 Gross Margin Drops to 73% from 78% as $1.4B Capex Bites

7 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕BofA Hangs September on CPI at ~70% with August NFP Forecast at Just +40k, CITIC Holds Pause, Tanious Says Hike 'Doesn't Make Sense' — Warsh Hawks the Long End via Term Premium, El Niño Carves Peru Fishmeal and Panama Canal as 2026's First Channels

8 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕5% Yield Test, 69% September Hike Odds, and a $9B vs $163B Asymmetry — The Long End Forces the Tape Into the Weakest Month

11 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold V-Recovers to $4435 on 38K ADP Miss, Silver Tracks +1% to $65.85 — Yet a 40.23t SLV Outflow Challenges the Bid

11 source channels · 2 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Rebounds 1%+ as Soft ADP (38K) and Dollar-Yield Pullback Cool Fed-Hike Trade, But BoC Hold and 86-Ton Dutch London Move Cap the Bid — Silver's 55% Slide Worsens

6 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Trump's 'Brief' Iran Strikes Lift Base Metals as 160+ US Firms Can't Rule Out Sanctioned Smelters and Chengtun Closes a 709M Yuan Tibet Lead-Zinc-Silver Deal - Relief Trade vs Supply-Chain Audit

5 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕LME Aluminum Pushes to $3,291 Since Aug 13 as Yinman Mining Restarts, Yet Japanese Q4 Premiums Plunge 18-22% - Futures vs Physical Demand Divergence

5 source channels · 2 min read

06 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-02

16 digests · 3032 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Oil Shock Reignites the Hike Trade: 10Y at 4.81% Tests 5%, 30Y Back to Pre-Buyback Levels, Diesel Crack at Record $106, 72% Priced - But Jobs Cooling and AI-Led Disinflation Pull the Other Way

9 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Iran Air Strikes Reflate the Curve: 10Y Touches 4.8%, 30Y 5.236%, Mortgage Rates Highest Since June 2025, Hike Odds 68-77% — 'Inflation-First' Fed Sets the September Tone

11 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕PBOC Splits the Curve: 50B Long-End Bond Buying vs 641.5B Short-End Drain as 50Y Reopens at 2.52% — Hidden Debt Tops 2.7T, Second-Hand Housing +10.6%

11 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Real Estate Credit Rewires to Project Basis as US 30Y Tests 5.28% and Shanghai Crude Jumps 7% to 682 Yuan — BOC and CCB Hit Records, Developers Lag

7 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕BOJ's Ueda Locks In September Hike as JGB 30Y Hits 4.197% and Nikkei Drops 1,700 Pts; RBNZ Hikes 25bp, ECB Doubles Down, Yen Breaks 160 Again

12 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕ECB September Hike Fully Priced as German 10Y Hits 3.36% 15-Year High, Yet Core CPI Drops to 2.4% — Iran Rial Breaks 2M/USD, Bessent Floats Weekly Sanctions

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Tanker Attack Kills Two Crew as IRGC Claims Three-Base Strike; Brent Holds Near $95, Yet Wright's 17mb/d Print Disputes Kpler's Five-Vessel Trace

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕US Strikes IRGC After Hormuz Shipping Attacks; Brent Clears $92, Diesel Spread Breaks $100 as Iran Fires Heavy Missiles at Jordan Marine Camp — Two Tankers Hit, Bypass Plan Pitched

7 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Anthropic's Mythos 5.1 Gates, Musk Teases 2.1T Grok 4.7, Altman Floats IPO Pause on RSI — A 17.2% GPU Margin, a $13B Nvidia-Hugging Face Bid and a 10,000-Unit Microduck Stress the Stack

9 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Astra Crosses 'Critical' Cyber, Anthropic Cuts Cache Reads 75%, California Locks Data-Center Power — Frontier Race Hits an Infrastructure Wall

10 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕HSBC Re-Frames the 1997 Parallel: Asia's Real Risk Is AI Demand Fragility, Not Financial - A-Share H1 Profits +16.8% vs 9月 Fed Hike Reflating on US-Iran Strikes

9 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Wall Street's Caution Cluster Widens: Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Flip, Citadel Tags September a 'Tactical Downside Window' - Warsh PCE Diffusion Still 48%

13 source channels · 6 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Cracks $4,300 as Bond Selloff and Iran-Linked Oil Spike Re-Anchor Hike Bets; $4,315 Is the Line Between 'Exhausted Selling' and 'Cascading Stop-Outs' — Silver Drops 5%

10 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Loses $4,400 and Silver Cracks $65 as September Hike Odds Climb to 66-70% on Warsh-Led Oil-Yield Selloff — WGC's $4,215 Pullback Looms

8 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Copper Drops a Second Day at $14,125/t as Oil-Led Macro Worry Returns; Q4 Japan Aluminum Premium Seeks $325/t, -18% — GFEX Silicon Complex Splits

3 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕International Copper Drops 1.07%, Tin Tumbles 1.61% in SHFE Night Sell-Off — Alumina the Lone +1.30% Outlier, India-Zambia Critical-Minerals Talks Revived, Buyers Pin Aluminum Alloy at $3,050

5 source channels · 2 min read

07 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-01

11 digests · 3114 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Warsh's Jackson Hole Pivot and $90+ Brent Drive 10Y to 4.78% and 30Y to 5.27% — September Hike Repriced to 57-70% Against a Softening Data Tape

8 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Warsh's Jackson Hole Pivot Lifts September Hike Odds Past 60% and 30yr Mortgage to 6.87% as 10-Year Eyes Breakout — Trump Calls Hikes 'Absurd' but Dollar Drops 0.9% on Bessent Buyback

10 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕30Y Futures +0.30% on PBOC 'Drain-Long, Expand-Short' Tilt; Solar Tops Coal 1,286 vs 1,285 GW; Canada Tire Probe Caps Session

8 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕PMI Reclaims Expansion, CNH Closes August +0.50% Through Warsh Hawkish Shock; State Council Backs Pipe Networks, Tax Law, 2030 60T Retail Goal, 40-Year Mortgage Still Undelivered - Recovery Print vs Fed Sept Decision

9 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Japan 10Y Hits 3% First Time Since 1996 and Global Yield Index Tops 2008 High — Bessent's Public BoJ-Hike Push Meets a Dollar Already Down 5 of 8 Months

10 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕German 2.9% CPI Print Underpins ECB September Hike, as France-UK Bond Selloff and Saudi $8bn Loan Shop Flag Fiscal Stress — India +7.8%, Qatar -7%

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Three Projectiles Hit Bahri VLCC Exiting Hormuz; Transits Drop to ~5 vs 14-Average, Brent Past $90 — Trump Vows Retaliation, Iranian Lawmaker Demands Preemptive US Strikes

7 source channels · 3 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕AI Compute Demand Still Sprints, Equity Tape Already Rotates: Korea Chip Exports +209% to $46.65B, Samsung Locks 70% of Memory to 2031 LTAs, and IGV Adds 12.9% in August vs SOXX's -8.6% — Zhipu Sets $2.4B FY ARR Target on +101% API Pricing

9 source channels · 7 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Goldman Lifts Alibaba's 2030 Cloud Target to $100B and UBS Re-Rates A-Shares as BofA's 3% Annualized S&P 500 Loss and a Kaplan-Inclined Fed Frame the Asia Open

9 source channels · 6 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Silver Cracks $65 to $64.52 Lowest Since Aug 19; Gold Off 1.85% to $4366 on 60%+ Fed Hike Bets - Warsh Jackson Hole Repricing

11 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Zinc Tops Four-Year High on Supply Squeeze, Lithium Reverses 2% as Anhui Logs Super-Large Copper-Gold Find - AI Copper Foil Demand +260% YoY

5 source channels · 2 min read

08 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-31

15 digests · 2731 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Warsh's Jackson Hole Pivot Sends September Hike Odds to 57-60% and the 2Y to 4.36% — Yet Bessent's Months of Bond Intervention Set Up an Open Treasury-Fed Collision

8 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Warsh's Jackson Hole Doctrine Locks the Fed in a 'No-Win' Box: 2Y Lifts, Bitcoin Anchors Near $78K, Gulf Stocks Slide - August Jobs and G20 in Asheville Test the Hawk

7 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕August Manufacturing PMI Climbs to 49.8 with Both Sides in Expansion, 7M SOE Profits Up 0.6% on 2.4% Revenue Drop, While US Trade Friction Tops Global for 7th Month — 30Y Future Bid, 15B Yuan Land Deal Frame the Read

8 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Three-Document Property Package Locks Sealed-Top Presales and 40-Year Mortgages; Big-Five NIMs Hold 1.23-1.37% on Dense 3-Year Time-Deposit Maturities — Developer Cash-Cycle Reset vs Liability-Cost Fade

6 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕German 30Y 3.7924% Since 2011, French 10Y 4.1503% From 2008 Highs as G7 War Bill Tops $16bn; Yen Back at 160 - Bessent Declines Fresh Joint Bid

10 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕ECB Sounds Alarm on US Treasury's Unannounced Euro Sell and Swap-Line Risk; EU Gas at 63% (13-Year Low) and BoK Flags Chip Inflation — Coordination vs. Survival

7 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕US Hits Larak Launchers, Iran Retaliates at Jordan and UAE Bases; Brent Tops $90.74 (+3%), WTI Past $86, Hormuz Monitored Transits at 5/Day — Strait in Open Combat

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕U.S. Hits Two Larak Launchers After Tanker Struck Near Khasab, IRGC Vows 'Response and Punishment' — 83 Vessels Redirected, Mining Threat Floated, Pentagon Chiefs File 'Non-Concur' on Extension

9 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕1M-Unit Domestic AI Chip Gap Locks Orders to 2029; Compute Capex Spikes (Paradigm ¥2.24B, Horizon +32.9%, China Mobile ¥700M+); AI Long-Form Anime Validates Yuewen's ¥430M Short-Drama Math - Silicon Photonics vs Supply Ceiling

8 source channels · 7 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕OpenAI Severs Cursor Over Musk as Nvidia Pre-Earnings Jitter, TSMC's 10-15% Hike, and a $160B Paper-Gain Reckoning Converge - Trust, Pricing Power, and Earnings Optics in One Tape

12 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕China 'Golden Autumn' Pressed with CSI 300 Base at 5,200 vs. 4,000 Bear; Warsh Priced at ~57% September Hike Odds, Apollo Says 2027 Yields Fall Either Way as AI Replaces Inflation Narrative

8 source channels · 7 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Long-End UST Pressure Caps Risk Appetite Even as NVIDIA Data-Center Doubles to $89B, HK Long-Term Foreign Capital Nears HKD 100B Since June, BSE Posts 83% Profit Coverage - Beta to Earnings

4 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Warsh Repricing Halts Gold's Three-Week Run; Silver Tags $67; SGE Au99.99 -3.32% — Profit-Taking vs Debasement Floor

7 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Silver Pinned Below $72 by Fed Hike Fears, While Gold's 'Orderly' Rally Pulls Exotic-Option Bulls and $79M of Korean Retail Demand - Two Metals, Two Tapes

3 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Nickel-Slag 'Black Mountain' Presses NPI Leaders as Lithium Destocking Hits 9 Straight Weeks and H1 Non-Ferrous Profit Jumps 94% — Waste Drag vs. Demand Recovery

5 source channels · 3 min read

09 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-30

13 digests · 1265 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Warsh's Hawkish Jackson Hole Debut Lifts September Hike Odds to 57% as Bessent's Long-End 'Twist' Splits Treasury From Fed - August Payrolls Decide

6 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Warsh's Jackson Hole Hawkishness Spikes Hike Odds and Puts Fed on Collision Course With Trump — Long End Holds the Line as Bessent's $14B Buyback Is Branded Futile

6 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕CCB Begins 40-Year Mortgage Extensions, Anhui Profits +63.5%, NFRA Unveils 'Five Arrows' Package — Yet Top-1000 Bank Profit Share at Just 22%

11 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Pre-Sale Curbs and a 1pp SME Subsidy Bookend the K-Shaped H2 as Q2 GDP Slips to 4.3% and Debt Service Tops 25% of Budget: Fiscal Lever Under Test

5 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕G7 Debt Bill Climbs by Tens of Billions as Yields Bite; Europe Central Bankers Head Home Unsettled, Korea Cancels G20 Trip at the Gate - Coordination Premium Cracks

9 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Hormuz Transits Down >90% and Oil at ~$88 Force IMF to Lift 2026 Global Inflation to 4.7% — UK Shelves Green Levies, Weighs Bank, Oil Windfall Taxes

4 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Credibility War: CENTCOM Clears Mines, Iran Calls Strait 'Completely Closed,' Tanker 'ELLIE' U-Turns, Tehran Brands Bessent's 130mb Throughput Claim as 'Lies'

2 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Iran Declares Hormuz 'Completely Closed' as Gulf Oil Recovers Only to ~40% of Pre-War; Brent ~$88 Holds a 20% Premium, IMF Tags 2026 Inflation at 4.7% — Permits, Not Pipelines, Are the Choke Point

6 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕15GW of 2027 AI Silicon Stays Dark: Musk Names the Grid Bottleneck as 沐曦 Turns 612M Yuan Profit, 天数智芯 Margins Halve to 17.2% — Silicon Outruns the Wires

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Anthropic Caught in a Pincer: Sony-Warner 'Brazen' Copyright Suit Meets a $45B Nscale Capacity Lease, While OpenAI 'Plotting' Transcripts and a 2.45M-PFLOPS China Build Reset the AI Risk Map - Liability Creep vs Compute Hoarding

5 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Hawkish Warsh at Jackson Hole Reignites AI Debt-Bubble Risk, Goldman Doubles 2027 Diesel Crack to $63/bbl on Refining Gap - A-Shares Rotate to Coal, Gold, Defensives amid K-Shaped Spread

6 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Warsh Echoes Powell-2022 as Barclays and SocGen Back Sep+Dec Hikes; DWS Says Long Yields Are a Fiscal Story, Not an Inflation One

4 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Jackson Hole Hawkishness and a Firmer Dollar Push Gold Past the 30% Retracement — Decline 'Mostly Done' per One Flash, but the Floated Reversal Factor Is Unnamed

2 source channels · 2 min read

10 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-29

14 digests · 1801 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Warsh's Jackson Hole — Hawkishest Since 2009 — Lifts September Hike Odds to ~60%, 2Y +10bp, Gold Under $4,500; BoK Hikes, ECB Fully Priced - Yet Trump Demands Cuts

8 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut Lifts September Hike to 50-60%, Sends 5Y to 4.48% and Flattens 2s30s 9bp — A 79k Payroll Revision and Cooling Housing Test the New Anchor

12 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Joint Notices Reset Property to Ready-Built Sales, Mortgages to 40 Years as Fiscal Spend Trails at +1.3% Y/Y; SOE Budget Income Jumps 39.8% - Supply Reset vs. Funding Drag

10 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Warsh's Jackson Hole Hawkish Debut Sinks Gold Below $4,530 and Silver Under $68, Slides Long-Yields as Equities Shrug - ECB's Tolzmann Backs September Hike

8 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕ECB September Hike Fully Priced (100%, 10Y Bund 3.27%) as Bailey Holds the BOE Line to an Ignoring Market — Cross-Atlantic Divergence

6 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz at Six Months: 82 Vessels Redirected, 130M Barrels Rerouted in 14 Days, Yet CENTCOM Says 'Open' as Iran Holds Crude at Zero and IRGC Reasserts Full Control

5 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Hormuz 'Reopened' With 30 Tankers/Night, Says US; Iran's IRGC Calls It 'Lies' and Demands Coordination on Every Transit - Pezeshkian Floats 4-Point Deal, Tanker Rates Near $650K/Day

12 source channels · 3 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Nvidia Pays $12.9B for Hugging Face, Validating a 1000x Durant Angel Bet; Barclays Maps 35-45% Cloud Capture as OpenAI-Cursor Split and Bond Skepticism Test the AI Capex Story

11 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Anthropic Wins Pentagon Ban Case as $3.4B of AI Debt Prints Overnight — $2.4B Blue Owl/IREN for Nvidia Chips, $1B Lambda, JPM Reads Yields as an AI Productivity Bet

11 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Warsh's Jackson Hole Re-Credentials the Hawk as A-Share September Playbooks Cluster Constructive on 9-of-16 Historical Wins — Hormuz Capex Freeze Tests the Equipment Channel Behind Unitree's 54x 2027E PS

5 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Three Global Banks Now Price September AND December Hikes After Warsh; Largest US Equity Outflow Since March Hits Ahead of Nvidia Week - Inflation Print Decides

8 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Sells Off 2.95% Through $4,500 and the 200-DMA on Warsh's Hawkish Jackson Hole Debut - Silver Tracks 3% Lower at $67.09, Yet Half of Wall Street Stays Bullish

6 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Cracks $4,500 to a $4,463 Low as Warsh Revives the September Hike Trade; Silver Sinks 4% to $66.38 — Long Liquidation Meets the $40T Bull Case

8 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Alumina Lifts the SHFE Complex 2.24% Overnight, Codelco Posts 11% H1 Output Drop as Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Peru Sign a Critical-Minerals Pact

7 source channels · 3 min read