DAILY LOGBOOK

Daily archive

Browse daily archives by date across 8 signal desks, with each digest keeping its own source trail.

01 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-23

16 digests · 5255 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Three Shocks Collide to Crash 10Y Yield 19.3bp to 4.95% as Fed Hike Pricing Slips to January 2027 — Oil at $114 and French 10Y at 5.04% Frame Warsh's Credibility Test

8 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Flight to Safety Sends 10Y Plunging 19.3bp - Steepest Drop Since March 2023 - as Hedging Costs Soar and 2026 Fed Hike Fully Unpriced

10 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Cambricon Q3 Net Profit Soars 147.74%, Zijin 9M Profit Climbs 51.93%, as 550B Yuan Local Debt and Unified Energy Contracts Stack Q4 Plumbing — AI Beats Coal's 3.2% Print

10 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕10-Year CGB Yield Slips to Record 1.6414% as Small Banks Flip Duration, Yet Ship Orders Surge 163.2% and FDI Holds with France Up 31.8% — November NPC Session Tests the Path

7 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Japan Core-Core CPI Climbs to 2.4% Sealing December BoJ Hike, While France-Germany 10Y Spread Hits 1.78% — Sovereign Bond Stress Spreads

12 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Japan Core CPI Cracks BoJ 2% Target at 2.1% Backing December Hike; Yen Hits One-Year High vs Euro as France 10Y Cracks 50bp Over Italy, Carry Unwind Wipes Out ~100 London Desks

9 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Attacks Hit October Record While Physical Flows Rebound: Brent at $113.17, Basrah $10 Below Dubai, Fuel Oil +6% on Supply Gap - Spot vs Futures Split

6 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Seven Tankers Hit in Hormuz, Brent Punches Through $113 as Houthi Four-Strike Barrage Hits Saudi Defense Ministry and Aramco HQ - the 'Flows Are Fine' Story Meets Five-Month Highs Two Weeks Before the US Midterms

12 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Cambricon Q3 Net Profit +147.74%, Western Digital Books to 2030 as CoreWeave Splits the Street $23B vs $76B - Earnings Beat, Funding-Gap Stress

7 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Meta's $825B Future Spending Slate Hammers AI Stocks: SOX -6%+, Meta -7%+, CDS at Record — Yet OpenAI Closes $30B UAE-Led Round, Anthropic IPO Looms, Gray Calls Demand 'Parabolic'

9 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕BofA Holds Two Further 2026 Hikes as Energy Reignites 3.7% US CPI, While A-Shares Snap 4.16% on ChiNext From RSI 23.9 - Citi Sees 'Capitulation' at PDD P/E 2.7-3.5x

9 source channels · 7 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Hedge Fund Shorts Hit 99th Percentile As Net Leverage Drops To Three-Year Lows — Goldman Flags Squeeze Risk, JPM Says Selling Is Done; Tesla Splits Goldman Neutral $360 Against UBS $425

8 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Loses $4,000 to Liquidity Selloff; Silver Drops 6% as Brent Above $113 Rewires the Fed Path — Safe-Haven Bid Tested by Cross-Asset Margin Calls

10 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Silver Crashes to $54.63 (Lowest Since Nov 2025) as Oil-Fueled Hawkish-Fed Bets Dump Gold Below $4,030 — Falling-Yields Paradox

7 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕LME Copper Tumbles 1.94% to Five-Week Low as AI Selloff Saps Risk Appetite, LME US Warehouse Stocks Hit 12.5-Year High - Yet Chile Lithium, Rio Bauxite, Indonesia Nickel Open New Supply Lines

5 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕LME Copper Slips to Five-Week Low at $14,089 on US Warehouse Build, Even as Chile Trims 2026 Output 8-9% and Southern Copper Guides 2027 Below 920,000 Tons - Logistical Glut vs Mine Reality

6 source channels · 4 min read

02 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-22

16 digests · 5495 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕DXY Cracks 101.50 on Fed Pause Repricing; 30Y Slides to 5.376% on AI-Driven Haven Bid — Senate Math and the Deficit Transmission Take Over

4 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕20Y Auction Prints Record 5.469% With Dealer Takedown at 10.3%, Yet Post-Auction Yield Snaps 1.25bp Lower - November 3 FOMC Tests the Lull

5 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Q3 GDP Re-Accelerates to 4.5% as Exports Surge 36.3%, Yet Property FAI Sinks 20.6% and Southbound Bleeds 9B HKD as Fund Houses Pledge 1.3B Yuan in ETF Self-Buys

7 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Two Offices Redefine S&T-Industry Financing as Q3 GDP Beats 4.5% and RMB Closes at 6.6760 — Financial Street Forum Pivots to Overnight Rate at ~1.3% vs French 10Y at 5% Since 2002

9 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕French OAT 10Y Cracks 5.09% as Foreign Exodus Reshapes Euro Sovereigns; UK Debt Crosses £3tn, Korea Holds at 3.00% — BoE Beyond November Clouded by Energy

9 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕French 10Y Hits 5% for First Time Since July 2002 as OAT-Bund Spread Nears 160bps Euro-Crisis High — UK CPI Overshoots to 3.5% with £24.5bn Deficit, $5bn+ Debt Sales Pulled

13 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕IRGC Strikes Seven Tankers in Hormuz Overnight, Brent Above $110 as US-Israel Plot Post-Midterm Iran Strike — Even as Middle East Crude Flows Sit at 94% of Pre-War

10 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Gulf Crude Flows Snap Back to 24.6 mb/d Even as Tanker Attacks Spread to Iraq and Oman; Brent Holds $108 on Fragile Recovery — Blockade-or-Deal Decides

11 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Huang's 'Off the Charts' Demand Meets a 1% Revenue Floor: Lam Research Drops 8.36% on China Risk, Anthropic 17% Bankruptcy Priced Against $750B Compute Pledge — Capex Bid Tests a Stalled Token-Spend Base

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Claude Duet Lands on iOS and Android, Tesla Trims 2026 Capex to ~$20B, Musk Pushes Test Chip to June 2028 - Agent Race vs Capex Reset

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕JPMorgan's $400B Tech Cash Surplus Caps the AI Sell-Off as Nomura Warns of a '97-98/'07-08 'Second Shock' With Oil as the Switch and Crude Freight Jumps 7x to $35/bbl - Hyperscalers vs Neocloud

9 source channels · 7 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕AI-Hardware Target Hikes Stack (QCOM $185, SMCI $38, SpaceX) as BofA's Cabana Asks Fed 'Why Wait Now?' and Top 10 Drive 66% of Q3 Earnings - Bullish Single-Name Tape vs Index Concentration

7 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Breaks $4,070 and Silver Loses $56 on 11-Year-High Dollar Sensitivity; BlackRock's 3x Miner-Leverage Bull Case Faces Goldman's 'Still Stuck' Silver Warning

10 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Whipsaws on Iran Embassy Alert, Settles $4,159.5; Silver Lags to $57 Before $58.115 Recovery - FOMC Tests the Defense-Industrial Split

8 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Hongqiao Posts +69.86% YTD Net Profit as LME Copper Slips 1.02% to $14,209.5/Ton, COMEX Stockpiling Adds 27,675t of Warrants, Lithium Carbonate Cracks 4% — Aluminum Earnings Diverge From Base-Metals Selloff

8 source channels · 5 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Copper Stack Tightens: Teck Highland Valley Strike Notice Sets Oct 24 Clock, Grupo Mexico Cuts 2026 Guidance, BHP Anchors 3-4% CAGR to 2035 — LME Tin Rides Chip Stocks

7 source channels · 4 min read

03 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-21

16 digests · 5515 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕October Pause Holds at 83% as Dow Lifts on AI, But December Hike Hits 89.8% Consensus and Long End Reverses — $100 Crude Bets Resurface

5 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕New Starts at 1.22M, Pending Sales at a Record-Low 66 Meet 94/100 Economist Consensus for a December Hike to 4.00-4.25%; Bessent Ties 10Y's 20bp Drop to French Flight-to-Safety - BoA's October Hold-Out Decides Next

8 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Enterprise-Led Tech Push Targets Chips and Machine Tools; Yunnan GDP Grows 2.2% as Tobacco Falls 1.9%, Yangtze Delta Trade Hits RMB 15.19 Trillion - Policy Ambition vs Local Drag

9 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕PBoC Pivots to Overnight Repo as 21 Banks Clear 260B Yuan in Mid-Term Dividends and Twin MOFCOM Rebukes Land in One Session - Q4 Demand Plan Is the Test

5 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕French Spread at 15-Year High Near 160bp as ECB's Kazaks Flags More Tightening, UK Borrowing Tops Forecasts at £24.5bn — Sovereign Stress Spreads Past the Periphery

9 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕UK 2Y Hits 4.97% as Greene Warns of Supply Shocks, Haldane Flags Truss Risk; Korea PPI 7.7%, RBA Hauser Stalls - Tight Policy Tests Creaking Fiscal Anchors

11 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕IRGC Mine Blockade Chokes Hormuz to 4 Transits/Day; Brent Above $110, WTI Past $100, TTF Through €90 — But Gulf Pipeline Bypass Holds Exports Above Prewar

7 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Three Tankers Ablaze in Hormuz, Brent Clears $110; CENTCOM Says Channel 'Fully Cleared' of Mines - Trump Says War 'Ends Soon' but Defense Minister Preps 'Fourth Round'

8 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕DSX POD Cuts Time-to-Token to 14 Days and Per-Token Power 30% as Musk Targets 13GW by 2027 and Citadel Warns GPU Spot Rentals Will 'Free-Fall' - Builders vs Margin Skeptics

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Super Micro's $19B Top-End Reignites AI Capex, but Anthropic's $80.7B Loss, EU's Nvidia Probe, and NEXTDC's 44% Plunge Expose the Plumbing

8 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕AI Bubble Caution Meets Fed-December Hike Lock-In; Montage Q3 +154-175%, WDC Lifted to $800, Dim Sum Outpaces USD Bonds - Defensive Macro vs Asia Conviction

6 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed October Hike Priced at 20% Even as BofA Stands Alone; a $1.6T AI-Capex 'People-Power-Politics' Trilemma and Dec 25bp Reset the Pivot

9 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Holds $4,130 as Iran Deal Hopes Reverse and December Hike Odds Stay Near 70%; Silver Slips to $57.41 — Speculative Hesitancy vs Central-Bank Floor

11 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Silver Breaks $58 on 26.68-Tonne ETF Build While Gold Slides to $4,142.5 as Oil Whipsaws the Fed Path — CIBC Cuts, WGC Sees $700B Tokenized Demand

6 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕LME Nickel Extends Four-Day Rally Through $16,000 on Indonesian Cut Talk, Copper's $91.99/t Backwardation Meets Goldman's $15,400 Target - EGA Half-Capacity, Lithium -4.7%

5 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Codelco Lifts Europe Copper Premium to Record $350/t as Funds Cut LME Net Longs 7,075 Lots - BHP Escondida Halt and US-Mexico Tariff Stalemate Tighten the Supply Gap

9 source channels · 5 min read

04 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-20

16 digests · 5464 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Dollar Cracks 102 on Fed Hold Bets (October Hike Odds at 17.4%, Down 8.7pp), but Treasuries Lose Hedge Luster at 5% as Supply, Inflation and Higher Neutral Rates Bite — December Still 83%

8 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Bonds Drift Without a Scapegoat as NAHB Crashes to 14-Year Low and AI Inflation Headache Frames October Hold - Mortgage Rates Hover Near 7%, 6M Bill Clears 4.22%

8 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Specialty-Gas Q3 Net Profit Jumps 363% on AI Demand as Shanghai Used-Home Prices Flip YoY Positive and Foreign Bond Holdings Cap at 1.7% — Real-Economy Beats vs. External-Funding Ceiling

7 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Pan Gongsheng's Policy Stack Lands With 4.6% Three-Quarter GDP Print; 18 Active ETFs Greenlit, Overnight OMO Tilt Teased — Yet A50 Futures Slip 0.09% to 13,332

8 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕France-Germany 10Y Spread Widens to Euro-Crisis High as Protests Stall Budget; UK Bank-Levy Pivot Slams StanChart -4%, HSBC -3% — ZEW Miss Caps the Bid

9 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕France OATs Hit 4.91% as UK Abandons CGT Hike for Bank Levy; Canada Swap Odds Cut to 68% Even as BoC Surveys Flash Hawkish — Fiscal Strain Meets Sticky Inflation

11 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Two Tankers Hit Mines, 54th MQ-9 Downed as $109 Brent and $30 JKM Hold the Line; $20-30 Surcharge Tests 5-7 mb/d Gap at 80% Pre-War Flow - Blockade vs. Throughput

8 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Araghchi Pitches 6-Day Hormuz Reopen as 2Mb Tanker Burns and IRGC Floats Suez Spillover - Munir Shuttle Becomes the Falsifier

7 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕$35B China Nvidia Orders and $10B Germany Bet Meet CoreWeave Funding Stress and Elice's 32% Debut Crash — AI Capex Reprices as Funding, Trust and Demand Diverge

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕AI Credit Fracture: CoreWeave 2032s Pierce 16%, CDS at 1,117bps, Hyperscaler Spreads Widen 12bps to 148 Against ~$2T Debt Pile by 2027 — Pentagon Mulls AI-Lab Export Curbs

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Q3 GDP Lifts to 4.5% as Brokerages Reshuffle: Goldman Upgrades Shekou, Yuanta Cuts Ganfeng, Citi Trims Alcoa 26% - Yet Yield Peak Still Hinges on Oil

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Fastest Tech De-Grossing Since 2016: Hedge Funds Cut at Record Pace, Net Leverage to 48.6% Year-Low on Still 23.5% Crowded Book — Dollar Resilience Tests Treasury Safe-Haven Bid

8 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Real-Yield Pressure Pulls Shanghai Gold -1.23% as Silver Tops $57 Spot Then Fades — NY Custody Drops 40 Tonnes, Allocation Bids Counter the Squeeze

9 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Slips to $4,160.3 on Yield Rebound Despite 13% October Hike Odds; Silver Eases to $57.23 - Range Trade vs ETF Demand Divergence

7 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Twin Copper Miners Report Chilean Weather Hits While US Tariff Doubts Cap the Rally - Supply Bulls vs Tariff Skeptics

7 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕LME Copper Drops to $14,339/t as 147,450t Two-Month Stock High and Chilean Strike End Drive Relief Trade, While Ivanhoe Courts US Strategic Buyers and GS Trims Ex-US 2027 Deficit to 220,000t - Supply Relief vs Tariff Floor

7 source channels · 4 min read

05 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-19

15 digests · 4862 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕October Pause Priced Yet Hike Odds Sit ~50-50 as Barclays Adds a January Move, AI Capex at 3.6% of GDP Reshapes the Long End - Bessent Sees Post-War Inflation Relief

5 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Polymarket Slashes October Hike Odds to 14% as El-Erian Says 'Not Three' — Yet Bessent's Energy Warning and BofA's 'Sell the Rally' Keep the Long End Defiant

3 source channels · 2 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕PBOC Re-Anchors to O/N Repo, Phases Out Deposit-Loan Benchmarks as Regulators Tighten - CSI 300's Record 10-Week Slide Caps Forum Day

8 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Q3 GDP and Financial Street Forum Anchor Monday's Stack; Bond Funds Tighten, RMB Rally Stays Domestic-Driven, Yasukuni Visit Adds Diplomatic Edge

7 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕France 10Y at 4.823% as OAT-Bund Spread Blows Out to 143bp; Italy Contagion, LNG Squeeze and Euro Weakness Compound Periphery Risk

9 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕RBA Kent: Policy Plausibly Restrictive on Rising Neutral Rates, Yet Magnitude Untested; NZD CPI to Test Pandemic Low After Five Quarterly Losses - LatAm Election Rallies Crack

6 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Three Tanker Mine Strikes in 72 Hours Pin Hormuz Risk as Crude Eases from Five-Month High on 15.4 mb/d Mideast Supply, but $33/bbl Freight Eats 82% of Asian Refining Margins and a Qatari LNG Carrier Defies Houthi Waters — Near-End Backwardation vs. Far-End Recovery

6 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Trump Pivots to Iran as 'Energy Ceasefire' Falters; IRGC Mine Strike in Southern Hormuz Tests the 7-Day Reopening Plan — 2.2bn-Barrel Cost, MOAB Threat, Netanyahu Backing

6 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕China AI Compute Megadeal at ¥37.49B and a 2028 Fiber Shortage Anchor the Buildout — Kioxia's JPY40T Wipeout Tests Whether Storage Has Bottomed

7 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Anthropic Pledges 5% to Public Fund (Plus 2% per 50% Step-Up) as CoreWeave Bond Rout Sends Storage -6%, Nasdaq -2%; Nscale's $30B IPO Draws Pushback — Meta Prints the Verdict

11 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Storage Drops 16% in 'Situational Awareness' Echo, Wilson Maps $1.6-1.8T AI Capex and Calls the Pullback Near Its End; CoreWeave CDS Spike and Howard Marks's Bubble Frame Decide Whether It Sticks - De-Grossing, Not De-Risking

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Inflation Print Fails to Stick, AI Credit Reclaims the Long End: 10Y Spikes 13bp to 5.325% Then Closes at 5.075%; A-Shares Drop, Broad-Base ETF Inflows 140B Yuan — 'Adjustment Near End' or Trap?

8 source channels · 6 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Through $4,190 and Silver Through $58 as Warsh Walks Back October Hike — $1.1B Outflow and Silver's Half-Line Crack Cloud the Rebound

9 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕NY Gold Punches Through $4,200 on the Seven-Week 'Dip-Then-Rally' Build — Silver's Weak Open and Three-Pressure Pullback Risk Cap Conviction

4 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Copper's Tariff Premium Tested: SHFE Stocks Climb 25.91% to One-Month High as Zinc TC Inverts Past 2,000 Yuan - US Policy Path and Lithium's 100,000-Yuan Reclaim Decide

5 source channels · 5 min read

06 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-18

15 digests · 1410 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕AI Credit Quake Unwinds the 'Long AI, Short Bonds' Trade; 10Y Defies Hot CPI at 5.098% as Warsh's Global-Readiness Signal Crashes October Hike Odds to ~13% — Who Pays the Capex Bill

5 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Hot Inflation, Weak Jobs Trap Warsh as Powell's 6-Word Warning Echoes — Dollar Pulls Back Through the Print, Diesel Decides the Follow-Through

4 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Q3 Trade at 18.8% and Refined Oil +39.4% Set Up Monday's GDP, Yet PBoC's 'Rising Risk-Free Rates' Warning and Global Tech Rout Cloud the Print - Li in Dushanbe, APEC Finance in Hong Kong

10 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕New Quality Productive Forces Document Elevates Green to a Co-Equal Pillar, Q1-Q3 Social Financing Tops 27T Yuan, While Brent Touches $110 and the U.S. Deficit Nears 2T - Domestic Re-Prioritization vs External Squeeze

8 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Eurozone CPI Hits 3.8% Three-Year High; Lagarde Watches Wage Spiral as Vietnam Cuts 1.5-2pp, India Braces for 75bp More, Australian Auctions Halve — A Fragmented Global Rate Map

7 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Japan Eyes Corporate Tax Hike to Fund 70-80T Yen Defense Buildup as BoE's Bailey Walks Out of IMF Over Russia and Macklem Frames Oil as a Canadian Tailwind - Resilience vs Rupture in Bangkok

5 source channels · 2 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Iran Reactivates 7-Day Hormuz Reopen Offer as IRGC Logs Second Supertanker Mine Strike, US Counters 97% of Ships Still Transit — Diplomacy vs the Minefield

4 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕VLCC Rates Cross $1M/Day as Iran Logs Three Tanker Mine-Strikes in One Day and Declares Hormuz 'Not Open' on War Day 232 — US MOAB Reports and New Strike Odds Climb

5 source channels · 3 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Hyperscaler FCF Flips Past -$100B as 95% of OCF Pours Into Nvidia, Micron, Broadcom Near +$500B — Anthropic Junk Rating, CAICT 2-3-Year Clearing Warning Stress the Capex Bid

9 source channels · 7 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Anthropic Owns the Tape on Five Fronts — F1-at-Night Warning at the IMF, 80%-of-Work Claim, Replit Split, Safety-Bill Threshold, Greying Workforce — While StartLux's 69.1-Point Decision-Model SOTA and CoreWeave's Junk-Bond Freeze Reopen the Nvidia Customer-Debt Question

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Denominator Shock: 10Y Tops 5.3%, Hyperscaler FCF Cracks -$100B, KOSPI -7.57% — A-Share 'Bottoming' Thesis Faces the $1.7T 2027 Showdown

9 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕AI Short-Drama Runway Doubles to $5B (IAP +129%) as AI Rewires Pharma R&D, While A-Shares Close the Week with ChiNext -8.90% and Only 2 of 31 Sectors Green — Defensive Bid vs Growth Capitulation

5 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Treasury Yields Retreat Lifts Gold and Silver Off Lows, but BofA's $100M Weekly Inflow Can't Mask Eroding Longs and Unresolved Sell-Side Pressure

2 source channels · 2 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Silver's 50% Wipeout From a Record High Flashes Slowdown Warning; Japan Moves to Plug a 218-Ton Gold Export-Smuggling Gap — Fed Blackout Leaves Tape Data-Starved

2 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕LME Copper Recovers to $14,407 (+0.42%) on Softer Dollar and Pre-Tariff Stockpiling, Backwardation Tightens Across Cu/Zn/Al Into LME Week — Teck CEO Maps a ~30% 2035 Supply Gap

2 source channels · 2 min read

07 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-17

16 digests · 1838 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Stagflation Trade Slid 10Y to 5.10% on Thursday Before Financial Conditions Drove It Back Above 5.3%, While Equal-Weight S&P Lags Cap-Weight by 6% - Curve Pricing vs Conditions Reality

4 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Best Bond Week Since February Snaps: 10Y Bounces 3.8bp to 5.125% on Hot Data, Barclays Doubles Hikes to Dec+Jan, Warsh Vague - Hold Consensus vs. Late-Cycle Inflation Reprise

13 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Niche Customization Powers 16.4% Q1-3 Export Growth as Yiwu Crosses 100M Cross-Border Import Orders 40+ Days Early, While 9 SOE Power Sellers in Guangxi Petition Amid Batch-Retail Inversion — Resilience vs Spread Squeeze

10 source channels · 7 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Pan Logs Three Bangkok Sit-Downs as RMB Two-Way Fix Persists, China Trims USTs to $591B, Jakarta Drops 12% — Coordination Premium vs Outflow Pressure

9 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕IMF Backs Faster BoJ Tightening as French 10Y Nears 5% and ECB Tilts to December — Lagarde's Fiscal Anchor vs a Long-End Reset

7 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Merz Rejects ~50% EU Budget Hike as Year-End Deadline Looms; Bangkok Central Bankers Play Down October Tightening — Italy A Held, Egypt Lifted to B3

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Mine Strike on 2M-Barrel Supertanker Caps Record 12-Attack Week; Brent Hits $110 Five-Month High as Hormuz Transits Snap Back - Safe-Passage Premium vs Normalized Flow

4 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Brent Taps $110 as US Navy Blockade Halts Iran's Maritime Trade; CENTCOM Clears 100M Barrels in Seven Days - Gaoshan Strike Threats and Burning Tankers Keep the Risk Premium

8 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Credit Fear Reframes the AI Trade: CoreWeave Yields Top 15%, Nasdaq -4.48% on the Week, Anthropic's $2T Cut to $1.5T - Kospi's 2008-Era Selloff Caps a $600B Nvidia Drawdown

12 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Eight-Day Chip Rout Wipes ~$2T as AI-Capex Doubts Eclipse Jensen Huang's 'Will Pass' Vow — Meta's Print, Anthropic's Safety Bill and Project Mango Set the Next Catalysts

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Capital Economics Flags Gold Drifting Lower Into Year-End on Fed Hikes and Fading AI Fears; Domestic Air Fares Print +7.6% YoY as Oil Holds the Gate — Fed Path Decides

2 source channels · 3 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Hike Consensus Hardens to Dec/Jan With Up to 75bp More Priced as BlackRock Flips Shorts to Overweight and Citi Sees a $3B Long-End Supply Cut at the Nov 4 Refunding - 40% of S&P 500 in a Bear

10 source channels · 6 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Slips 27% From $5,608 January Peak to ~$4,112 as Central Banks Buy a Record 288.9t and Silver's Deficit Widens to 46.3Moz — Rebound Falters at the Yield Threshold

2 source channels · 2 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Holds $4,186.7 After $4,200 Rejection, Silver Drifts to $57.135; Deutsche Bank Flags CTA Short-Cover Setup as Speculative Lengths Shrink

6 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Copper Sub-$6.6 as Centinela Strike Ends; LME Aluminum Breaks $3,000 on 'Surplus' Story Despite 40% Indonesia Drop - Peru Super El Niño the Wild Card

4 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕LME Closes Broadly Higher (Cu $14,408, Sn $50,384) on Acute Copper Squeeze; Antofagasta TCs Below -$300, 300 Chinese Miners Detained in Congo — Aluminum Eyes 1Mt 2027 Surplus

6 source channels · 4 min read

08 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-16

16 digests · 4984 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Warsh's Bangkok Silence Tilts October Hold Odds to 85% Even as PPI Prints 6.3% (4-Year High) and CPI Hits 3.7% — AI Risk-Off Sends Dollar to One-Month Low Before Saturday Blackout

12 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Bessent's Friday Survey Tees Up a 20-Year Cut as Hot PPI Spurs a Paradoxical Bond Rally; October Hike Odds Split ~50/50 — Warsh in Bangkok

8 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Two-Track Beijing: Equity Lifeline and 40-Item Tech Export Curbs Land the Same Day — NEV Exports +130% in 9M, Onshore Yuan Firms 48bps to 6.6868

8 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Exports Print 36.3% Y/Y, $133.5B Surplus: M1-M2 Spread Re-Widens to 4.0ppt, 30Y Futures Stalls, Hammack Warns on Inflation - External Beat vs Internal Drag

6 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Jakarta Sinks 11% on MSCI Reclassification Risk, Biggest Rout Since 1998, as Officials Scramble; BoJ, ECB and BoE Lean Hawkish Into Bangkok IMF-World Bank Meetings

9 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Japan JGBs Drop 3.5bp on Fiscal Pivot as MSCI Floats Indonesia Standalone and Merz Blocks Russian-Asset Handover to US — Reclassification, Bank-Tax Threat, De-Dollarization Converge

9 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Attacks Hit Wartime High With 12 Vessels Struck in a Week; Brent Holds $100 on Diesel Squeeze Even as IEA Reserve Release and Shadow-Fleet Easing Bid - Freight Tight, Crude Capped

7 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕2,500-Container Ship Sinks on Reported Naval-Mine Blast as Hormuz Attacks Hit Record; UN Flags Harvests, CENTCOM and IRGC Spar Over 'Control' — Freight Spikes Pump-to-Grocery

4 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕HBM 80-100% Q1 Surge Meets $35B Anthropic BB+; OpenAI Agent Drains a Wallet It Doesn't Own — Capital and Silicon Scale, Agent Guardrails Lag

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕External Safety Stack Locks In as Anthropic IPO Math Slips to ~$1.5T, SpaceX Eyes the Same Playbook, NYC Comptroller Demands a Halt - Audit-Gate vs Revenue-Slowdown Clock

8 source channels · 3 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕AI Capex Doubles to $1.4T as Bridgewater Flags Supply-Driven Rate Reset; September CPI at 3.7% Lifts October Hike Odds to ~45-50% — Rotation Tilts to HK Dividends and Resources

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Yardeni Slashes S&P Year-End to 7,900 as Valuation Cracks, UBS Lifts Fed Hike Count to Three, Citi Flags 70% Tech Earnings Concentration for 2027 - Quality Rotation vs. Tighter-for-Longer

10 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Reclaims $4200 on Dollar Weakness and Haven Bid; NY Silver Taps $58, Palladium Adds 2% - India ETF Curbs Cap Asian Demand

9 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Snaps Three-Session Slide Past $4,170 on Softer Yields and Dollar — Fades Below $4,160 as Hot PPI and Retail Sales Reassert Fed Hawks; Silver Adds 2.3% on Mexico Mine Halt

5 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕LME-SHFE Stock Split Locks Aluminum Tight as Copper Settles 109,860 Yuan on Escondida Relief, Lithium Carbonate's 12-Day Rout Stretches to 96,240 Yuan - Rate Heat Tests the Physical Complex

6 source channels · 5 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕PLS Commits A$1.9B to Double Lithium by 2029 as Copper Mines Restart, Centinela Talks Stall, and Tech Giants Court Anglo American — Citi Flags 2027 Oversupply

7 source channels · 4 min read

09 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-15

16 digests · 5460 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Hot 3.7% CPI Briefly Pushed October Hike Odds Near 50%, but CoreWeave Credit Crack Pulls 10Y Down 10bp to 5.08% — Russell 2000 Enters Correction, KOSPI Triggers Sidecar, Bonds Re-Hedge

11 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕September CPI Lifts October Hike Odds to ~50% as Energy Drives 3.7% y/y, 10Y at 5.318%, 2Y at 4.92% — Goolsbee Hawks, Warsh's Bangkok Fireside Is the Last Word Before Oct 28 Blackout

11 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Pre-GDP Survey Lifts 4.4% on PMI 50.1, yet 30Y Sours 0.08%, US Locks Truck-Bed CVDs at 77.17%, and Southbound Bleeds HK$5.08B — Survey vs. Tape

9 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕PBOC's 700B Yuan 6-Month Reverse Repo Pushes 30Y CGB to 2.056% Near Historic Lows, While US Hot CPI Reignites Three Fed Hikes Through 2027 — Domestic Easing vs External Pressure

7 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕EU 2028-34 Budget Rejected by Four Capitals as Oil Volatility and $466bn AI Debt Crowd Sovereign Funding - Kazaks Holds the Hawk Line

13 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕ECB's Simkus Refloats October Hike as French Yields Climb on Fiscal Fears; Sterling Hits Multi-Month Low, EU Warns of a 'Very Difficult' Winter

9 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Iran Sinks Two Ships and Cuts Hormuz Traffic 75% with 22 Vessels Hit This Month, Yet Oil Slides on IEA Supply Upgrade and Easing US Sanction Talk - Kinetic Risk vs Paper Reassurance

5 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Hormuz Containership Sinks, Aramco HQ Hit as Brent Tops $106 and ~40% of Mideast Oil Bypasses the Strait - Netanyahu Caps Strike Window, Macron Tours the Gulf

6 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕AI Hardware Slips 2-7% as Funds Pivot to Apps, TSMC Flags Agent CPU Shortage, DeepSeek Outage Hits 4h52m with 7-Day API Refund - Rotation Trade Tests Capex Story

7 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Anthropic's $16.8B Q3 Anchors a $1T AI Capex Era, Yet CoreWeave Yields Top 15% on 50%+ Default Odds - Apple China Set for December, OpenAI Besieged

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Core CPI Locks the December Hike; 6-7.5% AI Supply Float Looms as Alphabet Lifts 2027 Capex 72.2% to $349.9B, Korean Battery EBITDA Cut 10% - UBS Stands Alone at March 2027

8 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Citi Flips to a December 25bp Hike, BofA Holds Three to June 2027; $100 Oil Tethers the Fed, While Vanguard Says Stocks Won't Feel It Yet - Hawkish Path Meets the Second-Widest Active-Quant Gap Since 2020

7 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Reclaims $4,159 and Silver Jumps 2.2% as 10Y Yield Slides to 5.089% After CPI Flush to $4,075 — October Hike Repricing Caps the Bounce

12 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Hot September CPI Pushes October Hike Odds to ~50%, Gold Sinks Below $4,100 and Silver Crashes 6% — Spot Gold Rebounds Through $4,110 Overnight

8 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Hot US September CPI Reprices October Hike to ~41.5%, Pummels Industrial Metals — Lithium Carbonate Cracks 100,000 Yuan, LME Tin Below $50,000/tonne, Demand Loop vs. Supply Discipline Split

5 source channels · 5 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕LME Rout Pushes Aluminum Below $3,000 and Lithium Toward 100,000 Yuan, While Escondida Deal Mutes the Strike Bid and ICSG's 96kt 2026 Surplus Caps Copper

7 source channels · 4 min read

10 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-14

16 digests · 5650 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Fed Cooling Compresses October Hike Odds to ~20%, Debt Premium Pushes 10Y to 5.31% — Tonight's CPI Tests if Core Diffuses Past Energy

10 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Long-End Bids Pull 10Y to 5.176% and 30Y to 5.536% Into CPI, Yet Bassman's 6% 'Nightmare' and PIMCO's Extra-Hike Call Cap the Relief - Williams 2027 No-Hike vs Traders

11 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Q3 TSF Tilts 49.5% to Bonds and Stocks, Beating Loans by 7pp; Goldman Sets 12M RMB at 6.4 as Guangdong NEV Power +57.88% — Reallocation vs Reflation

7 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕30Y Treasury Futures Hit Record ¥118.02 on Easing Liquidity as Shanghai's 15th FYP Locks 5GW Solar, 3GW Storage, 40% EV Mix by 2030 — Huang Qifan Probe, EV Rebate Reset Frame Risk

8 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕IMF Lifts Fiscal Alarm as UK 30Y Holds 5.89% and Austria Lifts 2027 Deficit to 3.6% on +70bp Yields — Wunsch Says More ECB Hikes, US CPI Decides

12 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Long-End Surge Pushes 56% of Funds to Underweight France; Lane Calls It 'Substantial Tightening' as Bailey Says Guidance Is 'Overdone' — 28 October UK Budget the Test

9 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Tanker Strikes Hit Highest War-Era Pace as Brent Climbs on Aramco Hit, IRGC Spotters on Sailboats Now Target US Vessels - $150 Cost Tag Meets 'Hit Them Hard' Threat

8 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Six Ships Hit in a Day as IRGC Vows to 'Sink' US Warships Approaching Hormuz; CENTCOM Says 19M Barrels Cleared, Only 'Washington' Holds the Line — 24-Vessel Two-Week Toll

10 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕AI Capex Pivots From Chips to Rack-Scale Systems as SEMI Lifts Americas Wafer Spend Past $40.6B by 2029 — While JPMorgan Locks Out External AI Agents and Lao Gan Ma Trims Pickers 600→48

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Anthropic Readies Q3 Investor Reveal for What May Be the Largest-Ever IPO, Even as Its Own 'Months Away' Self-Replication Warning, a Children's-Data Class Action, and a Three-Week TPU v9 Slip Stack Up — Sizing the Market vs Pricing the Risk

9 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Fidelity Flags 10Y Path to 6% as Goldman Warns of $275bn AI Credit Wave by 2027; Russell Sees October Pause then December Hike — Front-End Calm vs Long-End and Tech Stress

11 source channels · 8 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕MS Lifts Q4 Brent to $105 as Mideast Premium Reflates; PIMCO Warns Yields Haven't Topped With One to Two Hikes Left; Rosenberg Flags 40-Year Bubble Extremes — Late-Cycle Energy Meets Crowded Risk Trades

12 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Holds $4140-4200 Into CPI as Williams's 'Dovish Hike' Lands Flat; Silver Drops 3% in Shanghai on 1980-Era Vol — Asymmetric Print Skewed Upside

7 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Slides Below $4150, Silver Drops Over 2% as Williams Rebound Fades Into the Close; Wednesday CPI Decides the Range

5 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Escondida Strike Threat Lifts Copper to Three-Week High Near $14,700/t, While Tin Drops 5% on Chip Rout and Lithium Posts Tenth Loss Below 110,000 Yuan — Supply-Premium vs Demand-Discount Split

6 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Lithium Nears 100,000 yuan/t on 40% Two-Month Drop Despite Sichuan LCE Reserves at 2.531 mt, While Escondida Strike Risk and INSG's Nickel-Surplus Flip Split the Metals Complex

9 source channels · 4 min read