DAILY LOGBOOK

Daily archive

Browse daily archives by date across 8 signal desks, with each digest keeping its own source trail.

01 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-28

16 digests · 3220 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Five Hawks Pre-empt Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut as 10Y Bund Hits 15-Year High and ~40% September Hike Holds — Will the Chair, or Bessent, Steer the Long End?

10 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Bessent Doubles Long-Duration Buybacks to Bend 19-Year-High Yields Into Warsh's Jackson Hole Independence Test - 57% Dollar Bullish Hedge, Hammack Says 'Time to Act'

10 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Three-Ministry Property Reset Closes the Pre-Sale Loophole — BOC Lifts H1 NIM 1bp to 1.27%, Yet US Bank-Sanction Threat on Iran Ties Reopens an External Front

8 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕IC Profits +18.5x as Petrochemical Chain Flips to -6.5%: 17.6% Industrial Growth Splits K-Sharp — PBOC's 6-Day Overnight Reverse Repo and 20.8T Fiscal Spend Frame 'Timely' Incremental Window

9 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕ECB September Hike 'All But Nailed On' as Spain CPI Doubles 2% Target and Kazaks Hardens; BoJ Closes In with Tokyo Core at 1.8% and ~82% Priced — G20 Yen Test Looms

12 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕France Inverts Italy in 10Y Bond Risk as BoK Lifts to 3% on AI Inflation and BoJ Snubs Jackson Hole — Fiscal Stress Meets Diminished Coordination

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz 'Mine-Free' vs Five-Ship Days: Kalibaf Vows 'All or Nothing' as Qatar Extends LNG Force Majeure a Second Month — Asian Spot Above $23

12 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Rezaei's Red Lines vs 'No Negotiations': Hormuz Reopening Tied to Lebanon/Gaza, Tanker Hit, 75% Flow Recovery Meets WSJ 'Where Is the Oil?' Doubt — Brent Off 6.3% on Week

14 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Anthropic's $130B IPO Joins TrendForce's $710B NVL72 Forecast as SoftBank Lines Up $10B Refi - Pimco Says Bond Market 'Can't Digest' AI Debt

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕FY28 Beat Sends NVIDIA +6% and Lifts the AI Bid, Yet Anthropic's $10B Meta Tab, 50MW Microsoft Build, and 'Carolina Principles' Reset the Capex Map - Tailwind vs. Concentration

9 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Chinese Consumer and Storage Reign on Research Day: Anta Top-Picked at HK$110, Xiangnong Posts 22x H1 Profit Growth — Jackson Hole Tightrope Tests Bessent's 'Bluff'

9 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Street-Low S&P 500 Call Holds as Citrini's 'Treasury-Fed Accord' Pitches 30Y Outperformance — Warsh's Jackson Hole Decides

6 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Silver Pierces $70 as Gold Reclaims $4,600 — UBS Flags Regime Shift From 'Rates Trade' to 'Debasement Trade', Cuts 2026 Target to $4,675

10 source channels · 2 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Tests $4,600 on 203k Claims as 0.17% Portfolio Share Caps Real Liquidity — 15% August Rally Flashes Overbought

4 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Lithium Futures +4% to ¥158,460 Even as GFEX Warrants Add 634 Lots; Panasonic Hikes CCL, Indonesian Chinese-Owned Nickel Smelters Mull Coordinated Cuts — DR Congo Truce Opens Rubaya Coltan, Yet Chinese Supply Chains Still Dominate

4 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Copper Hits Record, ETF Up ~20% in August, Shanghai Zinc Slides 1.02% — LME Supply Tightness vs Andes Cross-Border Revival

7 source channels · 2 min read

02 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-27

16 digests · 3330 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Hot 3.7% PCE Lifts Hike Odds to 40% as Bessent's 'Twist' Buyback Fails the 10Y at 4.66% — Warsh's Jackson Hole First Take Decides

11 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Headline PCE Lifts September Hike Odds to ~42% as Core Prints In-Line; 10Y +2bps, Iran War and Canada Tariff Pulse Keep Yields Bid - Sticky Print vs Warsh and Nvidia

14 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕MOFCOM Hardens 7.5% Tariff Line; PBOC Drains 70B at 1.62%; 2025 New Drivers +12.5%, EV Exports +73.1% - Open Conflict, Tight Cash, Real Re-Rating

8 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia's $96.2B Beat and $108B Q3 Guide Meet a 71-72% Margin Trough; Customer Book Doubles to $279B as Supply — Not Demand — Caps the FY28 Frame

6 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕BOK Delivers Second 25bp Hike to 3% on 6-1 Vote With 2026 GDP Lifted to 3.3% as BoJ's Himino Floats Earlier Moves and France's 10Y Flips Over Italy's

13 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Schnabel Demands More ECB Hikes as Global Yields Reprice in Lockstep, Bessent's $83bn Plan Calms QE Fears - BoE Digital Mandate, Dutch Gas Miss Reset the Cross-Border Map

9 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Tanker Hit in Hormuz as Transits Edge to 10 Vessels; European LNG Hits 3-Year High at $22.83/mmBtu, Iran Adds Insurers to Blacklist - Market 'Underestimates' a Multi-Year Standoff

8 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Hormuz Framework Hopes Lift Crude Off Lows Only for Iran to Call Them Unfinished: Brent Rebounds 2% to $87.58, HAANA Detained, 'No Timeline' on Talks

13 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Nvidia's 70% FY28 Frame, Explicitly Supply-Limited, Reignites AI Capex - Yardeni Flags Fatigue, a16z Says the Market 'Isn't Bullish Enough'

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia's $96.2B Print (+106% YoY) Re-Anchors the 'Central Bank of AI' as 2M More AWS GPUs and a 25% AI-Lab Mix Stack Up — $500B+ Financing Piles and a 90%-Cheaper Qwen Test Capex Faith

9 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕NVIDIA's $96.2B Q2 Beat and 70% 2027 Guide Lift Goldman, JPMorgan, Needham Targets to $300-$320; Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut Reframes the Long End - Gold $4,700, Brent $90 Cap the Risk-On Bid

9 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia's 7-Session Rout Erases $151B as Wolfe Tells Fed to 'Credibly' Skip — Citadel Flags a One-Sided Long-Bond Short as Sovereign Yields Spike

9 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕PCE-Firmed Dollar Rejects Gold at $4,700, But Debasement Bid Reclaims $4,640; Silver +2% to $69.50, Warsh Decides Next

8 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Pierces $4,600 as PCE Revives September Hike Bets, Dollar and Yields Firm Into Warsh and Jackson Hole - Silver Tracks Lower, Miners Sell Off, Yet $5,000 Year-End Holds

6 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Chalco's 67.9% H1 Profit Jump Lifts Aluminum, Yet Copper Drifts to $14,219 on a Stronger Dollar and Battery-Grade Lithium Eases 100 Yuan/Ton - Earnings Momentum vs. Tightening Financial Conditions

6 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Europe Pulls First Mexican Diesel in 7 Years at $4.26 Settle, EIA Draw Beats Forecast; Singapore Raids Iron Ore Trader, US-Brazil Critical-Minerals Silence Stays — Cross-Commodity Squeeze Stacks

7 source channels · 3 min read

03 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-26

16 digests · 3184 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Warsh's Honeymoon Ends: 30Y at Pre-2008 Highs, Four Regional Banks Sought July Hike, 'Bessent Put' Caps the Long End - Fed vs Treasury Diverges Into Jackson Hole

11 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Peace-Deal Hopes Pull 2Y Auction to 4.204% and 30Y to 5.19%, Yet Collins Says 'Tighten Soon' as Turbu-lens Maxes and Gold Tops $4,700 — Front-End Relief vs Long-End Skepticism

12 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕K-Shaped July Hardens: PMI 49.2 vs High-Tech 53.3, Auto Retail -22%, RMB 6.7051 Squeezes 677 Firms — MIIT 15th FYP Bets on 6G, Aerospace and a Digital-ID Battery Regime

9 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Mortgage Subsidies Spread to 20+ Cities as Shanghai's First 'Hu Ba Tiao' Weekend Logs a 50-Minute Sellout at 270% Subscription and Private Buyers Re-Enter Land Auctions — While 10Y CGB Bounces From Historic 1.67% Low

9 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Schnabel Demands Further Hikes as Gas Becomes the 'Biggest Concern' for Euro Debt — Korea Split 16-15, JGB 2Y-40Y Flattens, UK CBI Sales Plunge to -48

11 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕ECB Lines Up September Hike to 2.50% but Refuses to Signal More; Bunds Rally 5bp as Germany Lifts Q2 GDP and IFO Beats - Canada Fires C$20B Retaliation

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Iran-Oman Hormuz Corridor Talks Drag WTI to $80.37 and Brent Off ~9% in Five Days - Yet Iran's Deputy FM Holds the Strait on a Preemptive Trigger

13 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Hormuz Main TSS Lane Reopens After US Mine Sweep, 500+ Ships Cleared Southern Route in 30 Days, Yet Monday Saw One Bulker — the Lowest Since May 7 — as Iran Vows Retaliation Alongside the Oman Corridor Deal

11 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕MiniMax Revenue +283%, SenseTime Posts First ¥617M IFRS Profit, SemiAnalysis Sees OpenAI-Anthropic Compute Oligopoly by 2028 - JPMorgan Calls Alibaba's $19B Repricing Overdone, Nvidia Tonight Decides

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia's Wednesday Print Becomes the Single Test for $3.1T of Off-Balance-Sheet Pledges, Anthropic's $30T TAM Pitch, and OpenAI's GB300-Beating Jalapeño — Capex, Compute and IPO Converge

9 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕AI Capex Repricing Spreads to Credit as BoJ Pulls Hike to September and Citadel Flips Long-Bond Bullish — Semi 24m Fwd P/E Compresses to ~15x, JPY Tests 160, Jackson Hole Decides

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕AI Off-Balance-Sheet Pledges Top $3.1T as Term Premium Pins 30Y at 5.34% — UBS Vulnerability Gauge Hits 1.0, BofA Frames the Build-Out 'Too Big to Fail'

7 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Holds $4,650 After $4,700 Test; Profit-Taking Meets Fiscal Anxiety — PCE and Warsh at Jackson Hole Reset the Tape

7 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Spot Gold Cedes $4,700, Slips 0.97% to $4,606.54 as Silver Drops 2.16% on Profit-Taking — Yet $22.2B Decade-High Net Longs and Natixis's $5,000 Target Hold the Bid

5 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Carbonate Off 2,750 yuan/t as Warrants Climb 1,160 Lots, Zimbabwe Quota +300,000 t, and CATL Jianxiawo Restart Stalls — Copper Extends Record High on Tight Near-Term Supply

7 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕COMEX and LME Copper Close at Records on Tariff-Driven Inventory Reallocation, No Global Shortage Required — CME Adds US Zinc Contract for Regional Pricing

6 source channels · 4 min read

04 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-25

16 digests · 3256 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Bessent's Buyback Squeeze Meets Druckenmiller's 'Let the Bond Market Speak' Rebuke — 10Y Holds 4.70%, Kalshi 56% on Year-End ≥4.75%, TGA Float vs Long-End Fundamentals

8 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Bessent Doubles Buybacks to ≥$4B With $950B TGA as Backstop, Yet 30Y Holds 5.337% and Global Tech Sells Off — Jackson Hole Verdict

11 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕H1 Digital Industry Revenue Hits 20.71T (+13.6%) Even as BRI Non-Financial ODI Drops 5.5% — Domestic Engine vs. Cross-Border Drag

9 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕US Floats 7.5% Overcapacity Tariff Pre-Xi-Trump; PBoC Layers 500B MLF + 600B/D Reverse Repo; Liao Min's 30T Budget Makes Fiscal a Credit-Transmission Trigger — Negotiating Chip or Pre-Summit Salvo?

10 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Synchronized Global Yield Rise Meets Thin August Liquidity, Japan Debt Service Hits Record ¥36.6T and 10Y Eyes 3% - Fading Oil Tail, Muddled Fiscal Picture

11 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Adachi Says BOJ September Hike Conditions Met, Cycle May Extend Past 1.5% as Bessent Presses Ueda; Carney Rejects 'Vassal' Frame, Klingbeil Pins Euro Bond Surge on Trump

9 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Transits Hit 3-Month Low as Another Tanker Is Struck; US Quietly Returns Diplomats to Eight Embassies - WTI Breaks $85 on Bessent 'Economic Outcast'

13 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕71 Redirected, 3 Disabled in Iran Blockade as US Adds ~60 Sanctions; Iran Replies With 45-Tanker Blacklist and 'More Resolute' Warning — Hormuz 'Unobstructed' vs WTI Breakout Test

11 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Embodied AI Crosses Mass Production: XPeng Locks $900M+ at $6.3B, Wujie Ships First France Batch, While Nvidia's $95B/$108B Print Hangs on Rubin's 12% Mix - China Export Charges as the Tail

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia Bundles the AI Factory - Groq 3 LPX Live, Vera Rubin 30x/MW, SpaceXAI Starmind - Yet Pre-Earnings Selloff, Hyperscaler Defection and SEC Probe Converge

12 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Oil Reclaims the Wheel as 30Y Tests 2007 Highs; BOK 18-17 to 3.00% on August 27, JPMorgan Says Fed Should Sit - Two Rates, Two Directions

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕$100 Brent in Q4, 30Y Briefly Tops 5.3%: Buybacks Fail, AI Capex Squeezes Duration, Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech Decides

8 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Record $22.2B Speculative Long Lifts Gold to $4,700 Three-Month High, Then 'Mysterious' Afternoon Shorts Hit — Debasement Trade vs Pullback Bets

13 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Breaches $4,680 on Treasury Buyback-Fueled Debasement Bid — $22bn Spec Build at 93rd Percentile Tests Jackson Hole Conviction

7 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Copper Cools From $14,273 Record as Dollar Stabilizes; Lithium Cracks 5% on the Tape and -850 Yuan Spot, MIIT Staff Find No Freeze Notice - Warsh Friday and IFO Test the Bid

5 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕LME Copper +$58 to $14,273 and Zinc +$12 to $3,835 Mask Diverging Supply: Las Bambas Restarts, Rusal Halts Alumina - Defense-Metals Hunt, Hindustan Copper Divestment, Seawater-Magnesium Pitch

7 source channels · 3 min read

05 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-24

14 digests · 2896 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Bessent's Buyback Bounce Lasts a Day, 30Y Holds 5.248% Just Below Last Week's 5.337% 19-Year High — DXY at 98.8, Gold Tops $4640, Warsh's Jackson Hole Friday Sets the Term Premium

13 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕30Y Rebounds to 5.276% as Bessent's Buyback Trade Fades; Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut Sets the Long-End Tone - Term Premium, Inflation and the Fed-Treasury Boundary

10 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕PBOC Layers 500B MLF with 600B/Day Reverse Repo for Late-August, Yet A50 Futures Slide 2% and 30Y Bond Future Closes +0.24% - Liquidity Pump Meets Risk-Off

9 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Won Touches 1,376.5 Pre-BoK; Singapore Core CPI Undershoots 2.0% — BoJ, ECB Hikes Priced vs Fed, BoE Hold; BoK, Jackson Hole Test the Divergence

14 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Canada-US Trade Talks Collapse Sends USD/CAD to 1.3796 as Tariff Spiral Looms; Turkey Restores 37% Policy Rate - Euro Area Next-Crisis Warning

5 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Traffic Craters ~90% to Under 20 Weekend Ships as US Readies 'Economic D-Day' Sanctions - $93 Brent, ~$20M/VLCC Surcharge, and a $50-60 Persian Gulf Crude Discount

13 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Rezaei Vows 'Zero Oil' From Hormuz If Economic War Continues — Yet UKMTO Traffic Already at Single-Digits, 70 Vessels Redirected, US Casualties Climb to 774

7 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Shanghai Lays AI-Compute Industrial Blueprint as Xiaomi Drops 3nm D100, Samsung Maps 3D zHBM, and Goldman Lifts 2027 WFE 45% — the Memory Wall Becomes the Binding Constraint

6 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Capital Still Floods In: $65B Anthropic ARR Miss, HK$80B Alibaba Raise, $13B+ Hugging Field Sale Meet a 307GW Power Wall — Nvidia's Rubin Hand-Off Is the Lane

15 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕$40T Debt and 5.336% 30Y Yield Force 'Fiscal-Dominance' Repricing: Bessent's Put Falters, Tech Spreads at Cycle Highs, Warsh to Rethink Forward Guidance at Jackson Hole

9 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕30Y Yields Punch Through 5.336% as $145.2B August IG Crowding Tests A-Share Defense - WTI +6.7% on Hormuz, Jackson Hole's Warsh Frame Decides

3 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Spot Gold Holds $4,600 on Debasement Bid as August Surge Tops 13% — Funds Double, Central Banks Add 289t, Shorts Stack Above 46XX; AISC Climbs to $1,785/oz

11 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕London Spot Clears $4,600 on Third Weekly Win (+5.18%) as Treasury Long-Bond Bid Lifts COMEX to $4,690 — Zhaojin Lags the 73% Sector Average, Options Expiry Caps the Breakout

3 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Summer Maintenance Squeezes ~10% of Monthly Lithium Supply, Pushing Carbonate Past 161,000 Yuan/Ton in a 17% Monthly Rally — Copper Risks Re-Emerge as Zijin Flags Congo Flooding

6 source channels · 4 min read

06 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-23

13 digests · 1464 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕30Y Holds 5.27% as Treasury Buyback Bite Fades Into Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut — December Hike Fully Priced, July PCE the Final Gate

5 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed Officials Eye Higher Rates as Claims Fall, Yet Bessent's Long-End Push Rebounds to 30Y ~5.25% and Warsh Faces a Jackson Hole 'Nightmare' - Stagflation Scent Ahead of PCE

6 source channels · 2 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕July Fiscal Revenue Jumps to ~11.7% while Spending Stalls: Central Transfers Replace Provincial Firepower as Five Provinces Face 3.3-6.9pp Catch-Up Gaps - Resilience Narrative vs Catch-Up Math

6 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Beike Q2 GTV +6.3% Locks In China's Stock-Home Pivot — Yet 410K Net Restaurant Closures Show 2.8% Catering Growth Hides Margin Squeeze

4 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Russian Crude Hits 2.6 mb/d and Over Half of India's Imports as Gulf Squeeze Bites; Six EU States Press Bloc-Wide Oil Windfall Tax — Jackson Hole Week Decides

4 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Carney Pauses US Talks, Lines Up C$20B Counter-Tariffs for Tuesday — UK Payrolls Slump, France Now Yields More Than Italy

5 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Traffic Quadruples to ~200 Vessels as 80% Goes Dark or Reroutes Oman, While Iran Vows Closure and US Wounded Reach 774 - Bypass vs Denial

5 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Iran Carves Iraq From Hormuz Curbs as ~16M Barrels Exit Friday Night — 'Dark' Fleet at 5-6M b/d, Bessent's Monday Sanctions Test the Quid Pro Quo

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Nvidia AI Server Hikes Top 15% as NAND Shifts to Molybdenum; Tiangong's 38.15s Beats Human 43.03s - Anthropic's $7B Decart Deal Tests the Largest-IPO Path as Voter Net Support Sits at -17%

12 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia Lifts AI-Server Prices >15% for Early 2026 as OpenAI and Gemini Cut Model Prices 20-80% Under Chinese Squeeze - Hardware Inflation vs Software Deflation

11 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Long-Yield Surge and AI Narrative Crack Drag A-Share Tech; Crowding Eases to 47.7% as Cyclicals, Banks, and HALO Lead - September Mid-Report Window Decides

7 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕30Y Past 5.3% For First Time Since 2007; Warsh-Era Hike Bets Widen 18bp → 45bp Peak; Tech Lurches Into Secondary Bottom — September Rebound Hangs on Long-End Cooling

4 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Treasury Bid Powers Gold's Weekly Breakout; Options Expiry Caps the Run, 45% of Central Banks Plan H2 Adds After March's 48-Ton Stress Outflow

3 source channels · 3 min read

07 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-22

16 digests · 1988 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Bessent Put Fails as 30Y Touches 5.34%; Doubled Buyback Lasts Under a Day, Dollar Cracks, Bitcoin Jumps 25%+ on the Week — Japan Warned on a 1997 Path

4 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Bessent Doubles Long-End Buybacks to $4B/Op, Yet 30Y Yields Retrace — August PMIs Print 53.2/56.8 but Housing Starts Drop 12.4% as Fannie Mae Ousts ~12 Senior Execs

10 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Panda Bond Issuance Hits 209.975B (+73% YoY) as China Decouples from the Global Long-End Selloff — Yet EPMI Sticks at 47.8 and Households Net Repay 366.8B in H1 — Trade-In Pump vs Demand Drought

8 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕July Fiscal Take Climbs 11.7% on 25.9% Personal Tax Surge, K-Shaped Credit Diverges as 257 Cities Target Low-Altitude Economy - Supply Push Tests Demand

9 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Long-End Sells Off Into Eurozone's Hidden 300%-of-GDP Liabilities, Japan's Record ¥130T+ Budget and Canada's 50% Counter-Tariff — Fiscal Stress Goes Multi-Front

6 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕SNB's Tschudin Ready to Cut Below Zero as Swiss CPI Holds at 0.4% - ECB Markets Still Price ~3% by 2027, Manufacturing PMI 52.8 Powers Stoxx 600 +0.6%

14 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Selective Iraq Passages Split Hormuz Picture: 20-Plus Ships in 3 Days vs 15M-Barrel 'Flow' Claim, Freight at $10,200 - NATO Mulls Parallel Operation

10 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕US Says It Has Controlled Hormuz's Southern Lane for 2 Months; Iran Claims Gulf of Oman Is 'Fully' Its Own; Traffic -90%, 3 mb/d Drawdown Targets 70-Day OECD Floor by 2027 - Patrol vs Posture

14 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Anthropic's $65B ARR Misses Whisper by $5-15B, $2T IPO Setup Faces October Test; Honor's Lightning Posts 9.32s 100m at 14.5 m/s as 2,056 Robots Open the Games - Two Records, Two Re-Pricings

10 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Risk Codification Meets Capital Flood: Anthropic IPO Names AI Backlash, $6B Nvidia-Poolside Deal, Google-TPU Poach, and $3T Off-Balance-Sheet AI Debt Hit One Tape

13 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Long-End Yield Surge De-Rates the Cross-Asset Tape, Liquidity-vs-Systemic Debate Splits Houses, Jackson Hole Warsh Tilt Caps the Bounce - AI Pivots From Models to Workflows

8 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Bessent's 'Quasi-QE' Doubles Long-Dated Buybacks as 30Y Holds Above 5%; Dalio Cuts Bonds, Puts 10-15% in Gold, Calls a US Debt Crisis at 3 Years ±2 — Warsh at Jackson Hole Decides

11 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Reclaims $4600 on Debasement Trade, +13% in August, as 10Y Hits 20-Month High and Debt Tops $40T: Jackson Hole, Warsh and PCE Test the Next Leg

6 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Tops $4,660, Silver Reclaims $70 as Dollar Cracks 99 and Bessent Buyback Reignites Debasement Bid — Dalio: Up to 15% in Gold

8 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕HVLP Copper Demand Jumps 260% to 24,000 Tons, Indium Phosphide Gap Tops 70% as Japan Adds Five Export Curbs and EU Slips in Critical Minerals - Two Bottlenecks, One Substitution Trade

3 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Zinc Backwardation Widens to $132.37/t on Latin America Supply Cut, Mine Output Seen Down 2.1% to 12.5Mt in 2026 — Lithium Joins the Shortage Roster, US Rare-Earth Processing Still Years Out

5 source channels · 2 min read

08 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-21

16 digests · 3264 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Buyback Fails, 30Y Anchored at 5.24% as Warsh's Transparency Pull-Back Looms; September Hold at 63.8%, Gold Clears $4600, Dollar Wobbles - Jackson Hole Decides

9 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Foreign RRP Adds $56B in Two Weeks to $373B — Largest Since Oct 2022; Bessent Floats >$4B Buybacks, Musalem Decouples Selloff From Fed Credibility — 30Y Liquidity 'Very Thin'

7 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Securities Stamp Tax +99.2% as MOF Maps 30T-Yuan Fiscal Plan and H2 Incremental Readiness; FDI -6.2% Y/Y Hides High-Tech +32.7% — Outbound Rules, First Cross-Border Delivery Reshape the Open Architecture

8 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕China-Switzerland FTA Upgrade Wraps Five Rounds; Two Grids Sign 5T Yuan Pact as 257 of 291 Cities Pile Into Low-Altitude Economy — Openness vs. Crowded Plans

10 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Japan 30Y JGBs Hit 4.06% as Core CPI Re-Accelerates and BOJ September Bets Build — Norway Pushes Back on US Tariffs, UK Logs £1.8bn July Deficit

12 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕German 5Y Pierces 3% First Time Since 2008 as UK, Europe, Japan Track US Rout; Bessent Put Lifts EM FX to Record While USD/JPY Slips Below 159 — Bond Sell-Off vs Weak-Dollar Divergence

6 source channels · 2 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Halves to 7 Ships, No VLCC or LNG, as Iran Vows Yanbu-Fujairah Strikes and IMO Contradicts Trump's 'Open' Claim - Brent Near $93

6 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕US Opens 10mb/d Hormuz Corridor; Trump Hails Victory as Brent Hits 3-Week High $94.42 (+3.1%) — Houthi Strikes Saudi, Lincoln Departs, Traffic Reads Diverge, Aug 24 Bessent Briefing Decides

10 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Multimodal Inference Splits the Stack: DeepSeek Nears Opus-4.8, OpenAI Open-Sources Codex Harness, Morgan Stanley Sees 2027 Cloud Capex +38% — Apple Ponders an AI Bet

9 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Anthropic Targets SpaceX-Sized IPO as Broadcom Lines Up $60B+ AI Debt Stack and OpenAI Books a 2027 Listing — Trillion-Dollar Compute Financing Race Intensifies

13 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Systematic Funds Post Worst Day in Two Years, UBS Lifts S&P 500 to 8,100 and HSBC Lifts Nvidia to $360, While Goldman Says Only Soft Inflation Heals Yields - Targets vs Dislocation

12 source channels · 7 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Bessent's Buyback 'Twist' Hands the Trade to FX — Citi Slashes 3-Month DXY to 98.34, Goldman Tags USD as 'Pressure Release Valve', Yet 10Y Reclaims 4.684% Same Day — Soft Repression vs. Fed Path Split

8 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Punches Through $4,600 on Bessent Buybacks and a Geopolitical Bid; Silver Tracks at $69.96, Yet Russia Sells and Oil Inflation Caps the Run

8 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Silver Rips 2% Through $68 While Gold Retreats From $4,530 — Bessent's Long-Dated Treasury Bid Meets Philly Fed Five-Year High, 206k Claims

6 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Lithium Rips Through 151,600 yuan/t on August Maintenance, Copper Foil and LFP Post H1 Reversals, UBS Lifts 2027 Copper Deficit to 379kt - Yet SHFE Stocks Add 19.8kt

5 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕US-Canada Tariff Halving Slips the Aluminum Premium as $500M DOE Grants, a $500-600M Tanzania Nickel Backing, and JOGMEC Reform Stack on the Same Critical-Minerals Line - Front-End Relief, Back-End Subsidization

5 source channels · 3 min read

09 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-20

14 digests · 2899 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Treasury Buyback Squeeze Drops 30Y to 5.18% and Lifts Kospi 5.9% — Hawkish July FOMC Minutes, Nomura's 55% October Hike Odds and a $200B September AI Bond Wall Cap the Relief

11 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Bessent Doubles Long-End Buybacks to $4B as Debt Tops $40T, Yet 20Y Auctions 0.5bp Through and 'Many' FOMC Members Wanted a Hike — Intervention Lite vs. Hawkish Minutes

7 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Shanghai Stacks Housing Stimulus: 15th Five-Year Renewal Plan Plus 'Eight Measures' Effective Aug 21 Cap Subsidies at RMB 50K/Unit — Xu Jiayin Gets Life, Lingang Targets 7.5% to ~RMB 200B, 30Y Futures -0.16%

8 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕US Treasury Doubles 10-30Y Repurchase Cap to $4B+, 30Y Yield Drops 10bp to 5.19%; Bitcoin Rips Past $69K, Liquidates $1.3B Shorts; Currie: $170 Diesel Is the Real Energy Risk

5 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕US Secret Corridor Pushes Hormuz Toward 10M b/d as Stalemate Data Reads 'Unchanged'; California Diesel at $7 Marks the Spillover - Squeeze vs. Iran's Diplomatic Lifelines

11 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕6 Ships vs the 130-140 Normal: Trump Says Hormuz 'Open' as US Secret Corridor Runs 10 Million b/d, Iran Tilts to 'Full Offence' — VLCC at $490K/Day

6 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕TSMC Locks A16 for Q4 Mass Production; Samsung 1.4nm Slips to 2029; SK Hynix Charts Optical-to-Memory; Winbond Books 2030 Capacity - Compute, Memory, and Power Pull Apart

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Marvell-Google Custom-Silicon Warrant for 58.97M Shares at $206.58 Lifts MRVL ~12% Pre-Market as Itochu Pledges 10 Japan Data Centers, Fractile Eyes $6.5B, and Nebius Files $4.5B Convertible - Capex, Capital, and Doctrine Converge in One Night

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕US Debt Crosses $40T, JPMorgan Flags Buyback Credibility as AI Bond Supply Nears $500B and Food Inflation Seen Doubling by 2027H1 - Term Premium vs Divided Fed

9 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Treasury Doubles 10-30Y Buybacks to $4B; Citi Targets 20Y at 4.9% from 5.2% - Hawkish Minutes, 30Y Near 20-Year High Keep the Long End From Unwinding

9 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Fades to $4,478.68 After 4.35% Treasury-Buyback Surge; Citi's 'Currency Alliance' Reframes the Bid — $4,500 Decides the Next Leg

10 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Treasury Buyback Pummels Yields: Gold Breaks $4,500 (+4.27%), Silver Clears $66 (+5.07%) on a Three-Month-Low Dollar — Fed Minutes Pull the Other Way

6 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Aluminum Upstream Profits Double While Midstream Lags; Lithium Slips 500 Yuan to 150,950; Copper Defends $14,000 Post-Treasury — Strategic Mineral Hunt Steps Up

3 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕LME Nickel Jumps 2.26% to $17,130 Leading Broad Base-Metals Bid as Mining M&A Wave Builds, Cunova Eyes €1B Frankfurt IPO - Regulatory Scrutiny No Bar

4 source channels · 3 min read

10 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-19

14 digests · 3120 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕30Y Yields Pull Back from 5.33% Multi-Decade High Into FOMC Minutes; Goldman Warns Supply May Force a Hawkish Fed, Danske Targets 4.00-4.25% - Real-Rate Decoupling Across Assets

6 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Supply Story Pushes 10Y Toward 4.8% as Intraday High Hits 4.7458%; Cabana Calls It a Fed Story - FOMC Minutes Today

13 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Provident-Fund Rewrite Ignites Property, 30Y Futures Drop 0.27% as Yuan Firms 50 pips to 6.7377 — Targeted Stimulus Beats Broad Easing

9 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕South-Bound ETF Channel Opens to Insurance Funds, 670 Rural Banks Fold in 2025, Household Loans Extend 1.5T Contraction - Cross-Border Opening vs Domestic Deleveraging

7 source channels · 6 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Only 6 Ships in Hormuz, 80% Divert via Omani Lane, Two Chinese Supertankers U-Turn as Pentagon Weighs 40,000-Troop Gulf Pullback - Tehran's Grip vs. Kpler Data

6 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕60-Day Ceasefire Lapses; Iran Pivots to 'Fully Offensive' Posture as Vessel Struck in Hormuz and Brent Holds Near $91 — Energy Stocks Hit First Record Since March

11 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Samsung Hikes Foundry Up to 15% on AI Squeeze, TSMC CoWoS Spills to Intel — 30Y Yield at Post-2007 High and Thompson's 'Railway Bubble' Reprice the Capex Stack

10 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕OpenAI Pauses Frontier RL Training Two Weeks After Hack as Blackstone Prices Microsoft Data-Center Bond at 7.228% — AI Capex Hits Cost-of-Capital Reality

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Unitree's 460% Pop Locks Humanoid Robotics Into Public-Market Pricing as BTIG's 57-Day Breadth Divergence Already Ties a 30-Year Extreme - Korea Up, Baidu Underweight at $80

6 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕BofA's $350 Nvidia Call Sits Next to an FMS Survey Tagging AI Bubble the Top Tail Risk, While 30Y Yields Hit Post-2007 Highs and Jackson Hole Asks Whether a Fractured FOMC Reconciles - Conviction vs Crowding

4 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Reclaims $4,350 from Weekly Low as Asia Bids Return; 30Y at 2007 High and Hormuz Limbo Cap the Move into July FOMC Minutes

7 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Cracks $4,340 as Brent Holds $90 and Long-End Yields Bite; Silver Tumbles 3% to $63.79 — Wells Fargo Defends $4,900 Path as Fed Pause Bets Build

9 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Lithium Main Craters 4%+ to 149,120 yuan/ton on 1,239-Lot Warrant Build and Unstable Zabuye Output; Copper to Cycle Lows Pre-FOMC as LME Deliveries Ease Squeeze — Macro vs Structural Bull

6 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕LME Selloff Hits Copper at $13,986/t (-$171); Saxo Flags ~70% of Exchange Copper 'Stranded' in the US — IEA: Stockpile Costs Are Operational, Not Material

3 source channels · 2 min read