DAILY LOGBOOK

Daily archive

Browse daily archives by date across 8 signal desks, with each digest keeping its own source trail.

01 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-13

16 digests · 5102 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕October Hike Odds Sit at ~19% as Waller Says Yields Are Doing the Fed's Work, Yet a Core 0.3% CPI on Wednesday Could Reopen the Door — 10Y Briefly Tagged 24-Year 5.36%

10 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Hammack: 'Smaller, Faster' Hikes Needed to Anchor Inflation Expectations as 30Y Mortgage Hits 7.4% and Pending Sales Fall to 12-Year Low — Wednesday CPI Decides October

11 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Oil Lifts China's PPI to 4.5% and CPI to 0.9% as Tier-1 Land Sales Freeze, a 2027 NEV Rebate Cut Re-Prices Trade, and a Nobel Tailwind Reshapes Policy - Ceasefire Whisper Meets Tanker Strike

9 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Four Futures Exchanges Lockstep on Programmatic Trading Rules While Post-Holiday Bond Rout Tests 1.6% 10Y, NEV Export Rebate Slashed to 9% — Supervision Tightens as Liquidity Eases

8 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕French 10Y OAT Hits ~4.95% as IMF Tags Disorderly Sovereign Yields Top Tail Risk; Developed-Economy Deficits Hit 5.2%, Highest Since 2021 — BoJ Leans Against October Consecutive Hike

10 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕UK Sales Reaccelerate to 1.3% as Mann Warns on Wage-Price Spiral; EUR/USD Hits 1.1159 May 2025 Low With Stournaras Still Pushing Hikes - Dollar at 18-Month High Caps the Reflation Trade

11 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Tanker Strikes Lift Freight to $30/bbl and Murban–Basra Spread to $43 - Flow Recovery vs Risk Premium

4 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Six Ships Hit Off Hormuz in One Day as IRGC Targets Third Supertanker; 10 VLCCs Pull Back From Fujairah, 13 Killed in Riyadh Strikes — Patrols vs Sea Mines Round One

7 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕OpenRouter Frontier Share Collapses 55% to 14% as Broadcom's 'Casino' Warning Sends Korea Chips Down 5%+ — AMD Lifts CPU TAM to $200B by 2030, Helios Ships, Anthropic Races Toward $2T IPO

8 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕AI Trade Pivots From Models to Megawatts: Intel-Broadcom CEOs Name Capital the Binding Constraint, Nvidia-Cisco Reset Hardware With USFP and 800V, Embodied AI Crowds the Factory Floor — yet Nvidia and AMD Sell Off

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕AI Bond Issuance Tops $228.8B vs Sub-$50B Pre-2025 Norm as 10Y UST Holds 5.24% and BlackRock Ends Six-Year Underweight; MS Flags Memory 'Cheapest at the Top' - Wednesday CPI Decides Reflation Path

7 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕10Y at 5.30% Has Done the Fed's 120bp Tightening; CCC Spreads Crack 1000bp, Bank Stocks Print 33-Year Oversold - Wednesday CPI Tests the Truce

8 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Recoups to $4,220 on Fed-Pause Bets as BofA Flags $4,000 Risk and Options Stall — Silver Wobbles at $60, Kazakhstan Trim Caps the Bid, US Inflation Decides

9 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Closes at $4,195.9 as Dollar Nears 18-Month High and Kazakhstan Joins the Sellers; BofA Holds $4,000 Q4 Call, Silver ETF Sheds 16.86 Tonnes - CPI Week Tests December

5 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Chile Strikes Lift LME Copper to a Two-Week High While GFEX Lithium's 9-Day Rout to 103,020 Yuan and LME Aluminum's 8-Month Low Test the Complex - Supply Bulls vs AI Risk-Off

5 source channels · 5 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Copper Extends on Dovish Bets and a Second El Teniente Fatality, Tin Jumps $203 to $53,209/t - World Steel Trims 2026 to -0.1% as Speculators Dump $2.8B

7 source channels · 4 min read

02 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-12

16 digests · 4404 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕October Hike Odds Crushed to ~17% on 29k Nonfarm, but 10Y Sticks at 5.26% (Touched 5.35%, 24-Year High) as BofA Calls Hold a 'Dumb Move' - Wednesday CPI Decides

6 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed Minutes Re-Affirm a Hike; 10Y Auction's 5.3% High Lures 80.3% Foreign Demand and Yields Drop 10bp — Long End Top-Hunts Into CPI and Warsh

4 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕NEV Export Refund Slips to 9% From April 2027, Yet Sept Exports Soar 163.5% and EU Quota Pact Caps Friction — PBoC 1.40% Steady, Small Banks Told to Shorten Duration

8 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Tianjin Pins Ready-Built Sales as 1.63% 3Y Savings Bonds Sell Out at Open, 5Y Most Wanted at 500,000 Yuan Cap - China M2 Pending, US CPI Wednesday, IMF-Bangkok Frames the Year

8 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕India 10Y Pushes Past 7.40% on Coal Crisis and RBI Liquidity Drain Despite Sub-Tick CPI Miss; Euro Relief Capped by SPD Resignation — DM Hike Odds Vanish Globally

10 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Global Bond Selloff Does Central Banks' Work: Egypt Core Falls to 14.1%, UK Faces £35bn Fiscal Gap, Seoul Readies Stabilizers - Bangkok IMF/World Bank Warn of 'Gathering Storm' as Developing Nations Pay the Price

7 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Third Tanker Mine-Strike in Hormuz Holds Oil Risk Premium as Gulf Exports Normalize, While KOSPI Drops 3.6% and 10Y Tests 5.4% - Volume Back, Toll Climbing

9 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Second Tanker Struck in Hormuz as Iran Brands Transponder-Off Vessels Hostile; WTI +1% to $91.88, Brent $103.7, BP Pulls From Riyadh Congress — Partial US-Iran Deal Tested by 24-Hour Strike Stack

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕AI Unit Economics Bite: Muse User Growth Falls 62% at $3-130 Per-User Monthly Cost as Firmus Shelves $5.5B IPO — Nvidia Circles Reflection AI for Acqui-Hire

8 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia Off-Balance Sheet Triples to $530B in a Quarter, Micron Tops Apple, Amazon Eyes $7B Decart, Anthropic Pulls Claude After False Homicide Tip - Capex, Memory Power, and Safety Stumbles Collide

9 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕BofA Flips Salesforce to $285 PT (from $160) as Goldman Pivots Overweight Stocks AND Bonds; Hedge Funds Cut Tech With Mag 7 at Records - Late-October Q3 Prints Decide

7 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕TLVR Inductors Flagged for 10x+ Market Expansion as A-Shapes Tilt to a Coal-Bank Barbell at 3,741, 10Y UST Holds 5.2-5.3% — Samsung's 107.4T KRW Print Lags Consensus

5 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Two Failed $4,200 Holds and 30Y at 5.68% Cap Gold's Rebound; Silver T+D +1.44%, Palladium's Hidden Nornickel Concentration a Tail

10 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Loses $4190 to a 0.24% Slide While Silver Opens Higher at $60.85 — ETF Holdings Set the Next Read

2 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Lithium Carbonate Crashes 11.79% Through 110,000 Yuan on Supply-Glut Cascade and EU Hybrid-Export Curb, While LME Copper Adds 1.01% to $14,686.65 on Codelco Fatal Avalanche - Lithium Glut vs Copper Tailwind

7 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Second Codelco Accident in Two Weeks Traps Two at El Teniente as Copper Hovers Near Records; Ton-Level Solid-State Lithium to CATL Resets Battery-Material Demand - Supply Shock vs Demand Catalyst

3 source channels · 2 min read

03 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-11

12 digests · 1388 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕ISM Services Prices Hit 74.0 — 112 Straight Monthly Rises — as October Hike Odds Sit at 19% and Trump Revives Cook Ouster Bid; Wednesday CPI Decides

4 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕October Hike Expectations Shift Dramatically as Fed Flags 'Non-Consecutive' Path; Dollar Longs Add Anyway, Gold Stuck Waiting on CPI

2 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕New Productive Forces Document Reshapes A-Share Valuation as Taicang Auto Exports Clear 1M and Nanjing-Europe Route Opens - Supply Push vs Soft Demand Tested by September CPI

10 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Q4 Counter-Cyclical Switch: NDRC's Zheng Vows 'Six Networks' Early Start, 150B Capital Bond First Tranche Lands, Logistics PMI Climbs to 51.5% — EU Yields 16 Items but Defers Tariff Lines

10 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Developed Economies Overtake EMs as the Debt Risk Anchor; Saudi IP -23.5%, Yen Pinned at 158, RBI Widens Defense — IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings Meet a Triple Shock

5 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕IMF Risk Map Tilts to the Wealthy as India Defends Rupee Near Record Lows and Polish Central Bank Braces for Governor's Suspension — November 4 Decision at Risk

3 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Supertanker Mine Strike Lifts Hormuz Incidents to 13 in 10 Days; Saudi Interceptor Stocks 'Critical' as US Disables Fourth Blockade-Runner - Energy Supply Triangle Tightens

6 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Supertanker Mine Strike Confirmed in Hormuz, Riyadh Airport Hit Kills 12, Energy Aspects Flags Physical Crude Near $150 — Paper Market 'Severely Disconnected' From Reality

5 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Samsung Locks 80% of 2027 Memory Output as U.S. Spot Compute Hits ~$40-50B/GW and Musk Stacks Chips-to-Agents — Lock-In Meets Li Lu's Limits

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia–Reflection Talks at a $25B Marker as Anthropic Files a False Homicide Tip and AI Debt Stacks - M&A vs Safety and Leverage

12 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Goldman Admits the US Rally Is 'One Big Trade' as Deutsche Bank Downgrades Tech and Oil Risk Premium Hits $22/bbl — Concentration Meets Q4 Test

9 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Ten Stocks Carry 70% of S&P's 23% Gain as Nomura Flags 'Severe Distortion,' 10Y Clears 5.3% on Term Premium — Hike Odds Crushed to <20%, Long End Refuses to Follow

4 source channels · 4 min read

04 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-10

16 digests · 2608 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕10-Year Nears 5.4% as S&P 500 Records on 30% Breadth, Junk Yields ~15%, Bessent Flags $41T Debt, Trump Opens Cook Probe — Narrow Tape vs Long-End Supply

5 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕30Y at 5.68% 24-Year High as ~$38B-Equivalent Treasury Futures Forced-Selling Unfolds; Citi Sees Bessent Cutting 20Y/30Y by $3B Each at Nov 4 Refunding - Cook Inquiry Adds Policy Risk

10 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕China-EU Hybrid-Car Deal Heads Off Tariffs While Seoul Extends Steel AD Three Months and US Opens 337 Chip-Parts Probe — Beijing Banned Hidden Door Handles, Lifts R&D Super-Deduction Past 120%

9 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Shanghai Showings Crowded in Golden Week as '8·28' Sales Reform Lands, Yet September A-Share New Accounts Drop to 1.91M (-35% YoY) on a 27.13M YTD Total (+35%); Hong Hao Frames Mortgage Subsidy as Opening Act of a Consumer-Voucher, RRR, Rate-Cut Package - China-EU Joint Statement Seals Hybrid-Car WTO Understanding

8 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕French Fiscal Fissure Caps ECB at December as EUR Drifts to 1.10 — Bundesbank 'Clear Warning,' EU Budget Cut 8% to €1.6T

9 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Krugman Flags 'Unsustainable' French Path as OAT-Bund Spread Hits ~150bps; Fitch Calls €43B Budget a 'Big Deal' - ECB Sits Out, Record Euro FX Cut

13 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕VLCC at $1.4M/Day, Brent Above $105 as Iran Expands Tanker Strikes Past Hormuz — Trump's 'We Control It' vs Kpler's 'Open but Extreme-Risk' at ~10 Ships/Day

7 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕IRGC Strikes LPG Tanker in Hormuz and Threatens Region-Wide Targeting; US Diesel Jumps 70% to $6.28, Freight Rates Run ~100x Year-Ago as Shipping Risk Splits Crude From Products — Political De-escalation vs. On-Water Escalation

6 source channels · 3 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕OpenAI-Anthropic Revenue Methodology Gap Resets Chip Tape in 24 Hours; Anthropic Safety Stumbles Stack, Mississippi Tells AWS to Cut Power — AI Capex Optics vs. Physical Bottlenecks

11 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕White House Mandates AI Incident Reports After Anthropic 'Fraudulent Use'; $70B OpenAI Run-Rate Reignites the Trade, H100 Rents Pin Two-Year Highs — Memory Backlog Now Spans Four Quarters

11 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕AI Three's 95% Q2 Earnings Push Korea+Taiwan Past 50% of MSCI EM with Tech Weight at 40%+, While BofA Flags $166.4B Cash Rush at 6.5-Year High — US Mid-Terms Cap the October Bid

5 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Last Hike Was the Only Hike, Natixis and Citi Tee Up September CPI: Bond Selloff Marker, 64% Sweep Odds, $166.4B Cash Hoard Refuse to Cooperate

9 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Silver Halves to Sub-$60 While Gold Holds $4,120 - LBMA Sorrento Pins Year-Ahead at $5,013 as Real Rates Reclaim the Tape

6 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Spot Gold Reclaims $4,200 and Silver Tops $61 as Dollar, Yields and Oil All Cool; CFTC Lengths Trim 9,599, Banks Track $5B Trading Year

7 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕LME Copper Gains 1.61% to $14,540/t on Centinela Union Risk and 4-Year-High Yangshan Premium $135/t, While Comex Swells to Record 711,609t - Tariff-Driven Transpacific Split

1 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Centinela Hunger Strike Pushes Copper to $6.70 US Dark Pool and 4-Year High Yangshan Premium as LME Closes +1.6% to $14,540/t; Chile 5.2% Output at Risk - Supply Squeeze vs Tin Macro Drag

9 source channels · 5 min read

05 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-09

16 digests · 4918 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕October Pause Priced at 17.7% as December Hike Odds Climb to 81.3%, Yet 10-Year Eyes 6% on Term Premium Surge Despite Record 30Y Auction at 5.308% - Front-End Patience vs Long-End Supply

7 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕7.4% Mortgage (3-Year High) Snap-Back Meets Biggest Daily Drop in 3 Months as MOVE Index Flashes Peak-Yield Signal — Musalem and Waller Lean Hawkish, Active Funds vs Crowded CTA Shorts Decide the Next 10bp

9 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕PBoC-Goldman Talks, MOF 'Incremental' Pledge Coincide with +93bp Yuan Close and 11B Yuan Broad-Based ETF Inflow - State-Side Readouts Stay Single-Source

11 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Citi Warns 4% GDP Floor May Force a Q4 Pivot as PBOC Net-Drains 408.5bn Yuan and Local Bonds Hit 8.8tn YTD — Holiday Trips Up 0.6%, Yuan Stance Reaffirmed

6 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕OATs Snap Back to 4.82% as ECB Repo Eyed; Dollar Eyes 4th Weekly Gain on ~3% Cumulative Rise — Japan Carry Exit Reshapes the Sovereign Map

6 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕France's OAT-Bund Spread Clears 150bp as Le Pen Skips Pension Reform — 200bp in Sight, Japan Bankruptcies Hit 13-Year High While ECB Withholds Next Move

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Brent Holds Above $100 as Hormuz Transits Hit Two-Month Low; Trump Rules Out Iran Strikes Pre-Midterms While Supertanker Rates Hit $1.4M/Day Record - Verbal Pause vs Physical Squeeze

8 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Tanker Struck Off Qatar as Iran Scales Hormuz Attacks; Brent Jumps 5% to $105.3 — Pentagon Drafts 3-Day Strike Plan Despite Trump's 'No Attack Before Midterms' Vow

11 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Anthropic's $2T IPO Run Meets a $150B+ AI Debt Wave as Oracle's CDS Hits 261bps and the 10Y Reopens at 5.31% — Compute Capex Crowds Out the Credit Market

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕48% Video Turing Test Meets One-Third Power Gap - Singapore PM Joins the Correction, Anthropic Bans Claude 'Abuse'

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Waller's Pivot Lifts Goldman to a Second 2026 Hike; Brent Holds $100 on $22/Bbl Geopolitical Premium Despite Middle East Supply Recovery - Hawkish Reset vs Soft-Landing Pricing

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕US Fiscal Drift Pushes Long Yields Into Yardeni's 'Danger Zone' — BlackRock's Rieder Stays Long the Front End, JPM Herr Says Bond Buyers Can Be Choosy; MS's Khanduja Lifts Duration to 6.07 Years, Bullish on Treasuries First Time in a Decade

10 source channels · 6 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Reclaims $4,200 on Iran De-Escalation and Yield Pullback; Silver Adds 2% to $60.35 — Yet December Hike Odds at 75.5% Cap the Rebound

10 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold-Silver Split Deepens: Gold Tops $4,160 on Short-Covering While Silver Drops 1.4-2.1% and Ratio Tops 70 — India 3% Import Tax Caps the Rebound

7 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕LME Copper Rebounds Past $14,500 on Centinela Strike and China Return, While Lithium Carbonate Tumbles 5% and Tin Slides to a Three-Month Low — Stock Draws Diverge from Price Action

7 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Tin Crashes 5.27% to $51,447 as LME Sweeps Lower — Centinela Strike Anchors Copper, Anglo Readies Brazil Shutdown Over $500M MMG Sale

6 source channels · 5 min read

06 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-08

16 digests · 5585 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Waller Reaffirms More Hikes with 'Flexibility' on Pace as 10Y Sticks at 5.276% and Dollar Drifts Off 18-Month High - AI Capex Now Cited as Fresh Inflation Driver

11 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed Minutes Back Another 2026 Hike with 'Majority' Support as 10Y Clears 5.35% and $39B Auction Stops at 5.3% — Hawkish Unity vs. Term-Premium Drift

11 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕PBOC Decouples RMB From Misalignment as ~30% of Trade Settles in Yuan, Germany Lifts 2026 GDP to 1.3%, Personal-Culture Service Exports Spike 57.8% - 30Y Flat at 116.860, Dow -300+ Into the Reopen

6 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Golden Week Volume +0.8% Clashes With Per-Capita Spend -2% to -4% as 100B Yuan of New Policy Tools Deploy and a 150B Yuan Capital-Injection Bond Prices Today — A-Shares Reopen Into a ~10x Forward P/E

8 source channels · 7 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕France's 5% OAT Pushes OAT-Bund to 1.4pp as BoE's Greene Rebukes 'Yields Do the Work' Argument - Lane Warns of Core Lift Into 2027

10 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕DXY Nears Year-High on Hormuz Risk as EU Task Force Readies Crude/Diesel Taps; Peru Holds 4.25% with Door Open, Korea Surplus $46.8B, UK RICS -32 - Safe-Haven Bid vs Reserve-Release Hedge

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Iran's Hormuz Closure Claim Lifts Brent Past $103; 7-Tanker Day Marks Two-Month Low as 511k bpd of Gulf Output Shut In — Tehran vs Hassett on an 'Open' Strait

12 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕VLCC Hire Hits $77M on 12 Weekly Hormuz Strikes, Yet US Centcom Counts 20M b/d Still Flowing as Iran Vows to Seal 'Illegal' Lanes — Control Duel Meets Strike-Options Report

9 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Mag 7 Net Exposure at Record ~22% Meets $60B Broadcom–Anthropic Debt Close, CDS Widest Since 2008, US Yields Past 5.3% — Dalio Sees 'Classic Bubble' Bursting, Novogratz Says Buy

7 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕OpenAI and Anthropic Both Adopt Microsoft Execution Containers, Meta Locks $145B and 14GW, While Blackstone Walks After 22 Months and Duke Energy Walls Off Data-Center Rates - Civic Bill Comes Due on the AI Build-Out

8 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Hawkish Fed Hold Drives 10Y/30Y Toward 6% as ING and Danske Reinforce the Dollar Bid, Yet Equities Defy the Spread — Dalio's AI Bubble Warning, Micron's $3,000 Target and BSE Reopening Test the Disconnect

10 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕AI Capex Decouples Nasdaq From 5.3% 10Y as Term Premium Drives the Bond Bear, FOMC Stays Hawkish - China A-Shares Brace for Post-Golden Week Repair

9 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Silver Whipsaws $60.38 to $59.05 While Gold Tags $4,140 Before Shanghai Closes Down 1.69% - Fed Hike Bets, Dollar, Hormuz Pinch

7 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Dollar, Yields and $100 Oil Drag Gold Below $4,100 and Silver 2.5% to $60.05 — Record $31bn Q3 ETF Inflows Can't Hold the Bid

8 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Copper Hits $14,633.50/t on Chile Strike Risk and US Stockpiling as China Returns - Goldman Sees 2026 Lithium Peak vs. NEAR-Saudi Aramco DLE Launch

7 source channels · 5 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Indonesia Floats Nickel-Moratorium as LME Tin Tops $54,279/t and Copper Adds $60 to $14,476, but Zinc -2.7% and COMEX Aluminum -1% over Golden Week - Supply Floor vs Holiday Drag

7 source channels · 3 min read

07 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-07

16 digests · 3355 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Long-End Supply Pushes 10Y Past 5.30% and 30Y to 5.69%, Front-End Cools on 22% October Odds — FOMC Minutes to Map Logan vs Williams Split

6 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Bessent's Verbal Bid Falters at 5.35% on the 10Y as Oil Caps the Rout; Daly, Schmid Lean Hawkish Into FOMC Minutes

11 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Shanghai Holiday Sales Hit ¥76.24B (+9.9%) as France-Germany File EU Trade-Defense Paper, PBOC Stacks 23rd Gold-Buy Month — Demand Hold vs. External Tool Build

9 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Moody's Lifts Four Top Chinese Brokers to A3 as Shenzhen Non-Core Home Sales Jump 200% Over Golden Week — Domestic Tailwinds Meet EU Protectionist Letter, UK EV Tariff Talk

6 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕French 10Y at 4.90% as OAT-Bund Spread Hits 138bp, UK 30Y Jumps 10bp to 6.00%, RBI Lifts for First Time in ~4 Years — European Fiscal Premium Meets Asian Policy Divergence

10 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕France Readies 49.3 Bypass on €43bn Cuts as Risk Premium Bites Euro — BoC Dovest to Two 2027 Hikes, RBA Flags AI-Stock Household Channel

9 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Iran Vows Hormuz Closures and Declares 'Total War'; 9 October Attacks, 12 Crew Injured on On Peace, Captain Pay $100K - Rubio Says Iran Lost the Strait, Qatar Stacks 12 LNG Carriers

9 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Gulf Oil Flows Rebound to ~14 mb/d and ~80% of Prewar, Yet Tanker Attacks and $100,000/Month Captain Wages Keep Brent Near $100 - Crude Recovery vs Shipping Squeeze

8 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Mega-Rounds Print, IPO Window Narrows: Disruptive Targets $10B, SpaceX $40B, Anthropic Files at $2T+ — While 32GW of US Power Slips and 37.3% of 2027 HBM Locks

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕AMD Tops $1.07T on a World Labs Bid as Mistral Ships 1T-Param le Chonk and OpenAI Spreads Compute Across Atlassian, Ironclad and Lean-Proven Math - Capacity Sprint vs Memory Wall and Partisan AI Fight

11 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕BofA Says Bonds Out-Yield Stocks Over a Decade at a 5% 10Y, Gundlach Pegs 6% as the Path of Least Resistance, Marvell Targets Split $350 vs $400 — Fed October Hike Odds Recool

9 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Long-End Yields Sticky at 24-Year Highs While Credit Cracks Widen and AI Megacaps Keep Lifting the S&P — Leuthold Sees 15% Drawdown if Oil, Rates and the Dollar All Climb

5 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Silver Cracks $60 and Gold Loses $4,110 as Dollar and FOMC Minutes Loom - Central Bank Bid Faces Its Test at $4,000

8 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Spot Gold Tops $4,180 and Silver Holds $61 as Fading Hike Bets Ease Dollar and Yields; JPMorgan Says US Silver/PGM Tariff 'Increasingly Less Likely' — December Minutes Decide

7 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Aluminum Drops 1% to $3,112/t as Q4 Japan Premium Falls 35% to $255/t — Centinela Strike Looms, BHP Exits Kambalda, Copper Awaits China Reopen

6 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Codelco Probe Names Ministro Hales and Salvador as LME Copper Settles $14,415/t, Tin Drops $130; Japan Adds 102 Russia-Banned Items - Audit Reset vs Flat Tape

3 source channels · 3 min read

08 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-06

16 digests · 2995 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕30Y Nears 6% as Soft Jobs Trim Hikes, Yet Bessent's 3% GDP and Logan's 50bp Call Frame FOMC Minutes

5 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Long-End Yields Hit 5.343%, a 24-Year High, as October Hike Odds Collapse to ~20% and NY Fed Probes Private-Credit Bank Loans - Growth, Not the Fed, Now Sets the Curve

10 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕HKD Pinches 7.85 on Carry Trade as BofA Ends Four-Year China Underweight, World Bank Lifts East Asia to 4.5%, Day-6 Travel Hits 305.5M - Rates vs. Reopening

7 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕700B RMB Targeted Tools Skip RRR Cut, Yantian Logs 28,684-TEU Single-Vessel Record, Šefcovič Heads to Beijing Oct 8-9 With EUR 400B Goods Deficit - Targeted Easing vs Trade Test

7 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕French 10Y Drops 13bp to 4.73% as Le Pen Softens 2027 Red Lines, Yet BoE's Mann Stays Ahead-of-Curve and UK Spending Review Slips to Autumn 2027 — Relief Rally vs Fiscal Reality

8 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕French 30Y Holds 5.40% as Bank CDS Detaches from Peers by €16,500 — ECB Verbal Defense First, Spain Calls Snap Vote, EUR/USD Cut to 1.135

7 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕VLCCs Reclaim Hormuz at 10.3 mb/d (76% of Pre-War) as Product Tankers Vanish — Diesel Drops to 11% of Strait Cargoes, UKMTO Logs Four Warnings in Four Hours, $25K Round-Trip Bounty

7 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Hormuz Reasserts: Eleven Tankers Hit in a Week, Engine Room Ablaze; Kuwait at 75% Pre-War Output, Shipping Costs Spike 3,900% — But Bab el-Mandeb Splits, Not Closes

6 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Nvidia Back to Record as $60B AI Syndication and $8.2T Asia GPU Race Hit Tape While 22 Hinton-Led Scholars Warn of 5-Week 'Intelligence Explosion' - Capex vs Safety Fracture

12 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕AI Capex In, AI Credit Cracks Open: OpenAI's $30B Round and a $60B Broadcom-Anthropic Deal Sit Beside an 11% Volta Loan and a 98.5¢ CleanSpark Bond as Hinton Warns of a Five-Week Intelligence Explosion

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Goldman Holds Diesel Crack Spreads Above $40/bbl Into 2027 and Lifts TSMC Target 28% to TWD 3,300 on AI Demand, While Jefferies Trims Bank Earnings - Supply Premium vs Bank Reset

5 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Real Yields, Not Inflation Fears, Push 30Y Toward 6% as BMO Sees It This Month — Equity Strategists Pivot to Earnings Against the Bond Rout

6 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Spot Gold Slips Below $4110 as 17-Month-High Dollar and 5%+ Yields Reassert; Silver Slides 1% to $60.35, 80.5% October Hold Caps the Relief Bid - 39t CB Buys and ICE London Launch Frame the New Floor

6 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Silver Breaks $62 on Soft September Jobs as October Hike Odds Fade; Gold Crawls to $4,170 While Real Rates, Oil, and Dollar Still Pin the Rebound

8 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Copper Re-Rates Into Q4 on 232 Tariff Watch With LME Stocks Down 1,925t and New Orleans Adding 1,063 Short Tons - Mine-Side Tightness vs Whether US Metal Returns

4 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Escondida Mediation and Fading Hike Bets Bid LME Copper 1.02% to $14,404.55/ton — Five-Day Negotiation Window Frames Strike Risk

3 source channels · 2 min read

09 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-05

15 digests · 2213 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕October Hike Odds Cut to 18% on Soft Payrolls, Yet 10Y Yield Stays Near 2002 Highs and 5Y Mortgage Tops 6% — Front-End Eases, Long-End Sits on a 'Boiling Frog'

7 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Hassett Demands Powell 'Move On' Over Renovation Report, Backs Warsh's September Hike; October Hold Is Base Case - Yet December Hike Bets Linger on Sticky Inflation

5 source channels · 2 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Mortgage Subsidy Kicks In, Golden-Week Property Pockets Light Up; September PPI Heads for 4.5% Year-High while 2% 3-Year CDs Reappear — Demand-Side Cut vs Funding-Cost Pinch

10 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕HK Primary Sales +61.6% m/m on Cheung Sha Wan Sell-Outs, While MOFCOM Calls Holiday Spend "Stable and Orderly" as County Tourism Substitutes for Trade-In, and the Sept 10 SME Payment Crackdown Reshapes Trade Credit

5 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Snap Election, French Fiscal Woes Drag Euro to 16-17 Month Lows; ECB Holds 'Middle Path' as Second Energy Shock Reshapes Q4 Calculus - Fiscal Risk vs Hawkish Hold

9 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕G7's 100mb Release Caps Diesel Near-Term, Yet Europe's Bond Selloff Revives 2011 Contagion Talk — Brazil Vote, Hormuz, Ueda Decide Next

2 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕IRGC Turn-Backs, Four Tanker Strikes Stack in Hormuz — Brent at $102, WTI at $90.74; G-7 Release Meets Saudi Asia Cut as 22.5 mb/d Flows Expose Shipping Bottleneck

9 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Four Tanker Strikes in 72 Hours and Houthi-Hit Aramco Sites Meet Iran's 7-Condition Ultimatum — Brent Opens +$1, G7 Readies 100m-Barrel Release

4 source channels · 3 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Foxconn's 47% Q3 Surge and OpenAI's Agent-First Pivot Meet a 33-170GW US Power Gap and Anthropic Valuation Skepticism - Capex vs Physical and Pricing Ceilings

8 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia's $235B Buyback Buys Time Against OpenAI's 3.6x Latency Chip and a DeepSeek-Huawei Moat Attack, While Trump Taps Jay Clayton as AI Czar and Coxon Heads to Monday's NYC Hearing - Capex Faces the Containment Floor

9 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Breadth Divergence Widens to 12% as 51% of the Russell 3000 Enters a Bear Market and the 10Y Reclaims 5.25% — Wilson Says Bond Volatility Decides Whether the S&P Tests 6,800 or Broadens Higher

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Meta's $628B Off-Balance Sheet Lifts EV 35%, Flips Alphabet to the Pricier Hyperscaler at 9.0x vs 8.3x — Goldman Buys HK AI Name Zhipu 149% Upside as Strategists Pivot to Cross-Asset Hedges, Yields Surge

5 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Whipsaws to $4,180 as October Hike Odds Fade to ~40% and Silver Reclaims $61 — Yields and Dollar Cap the Bid; ETF Flows Decide

5 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Gaps Up to $4,141.05 at the Asia Open, Then Fades to $4,135.16 — Near-$10 Swing as Silver and Gold ETF Holdings Land Without Numbers

1 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Copper Rises for a Second Session as Softer US Jobs Data Eases Fed Tightening Bets — LME Draws 3,750t Yet COMEX Keeps Building, New Orleans Inflows Dominate

3 source channels · 2 min read

10 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-04

12 digests · 1104 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕First 25bp Hike Since 2023 Lifts the Long End, 80%+ Now Price Three More - Warsh Minutes, $61B Auctions and the Iran-Saudi Oil Tail Test the New Regime

4 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕30-Year Touched 5.48% as Hyperscalers Dumped $230B of 20-40Y Paper; Bessent Says 'Global, Not Panic' — Wednesday's Fed Minutes Test December Hike

6 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Golden Week Travel Hits 303.57M Person-Trips, Hainan Duty-Free Climbs 8.85% to ¥358M — A-Share IPO Proceeds Triple to ¥216.3B but One ¥66.6B Deal Carries the Print, Sentiment Stays Sub-38

6 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fourth 62.5bn Yuan Trade-In Tranche Lands Pre-Holiday, Tianjin Layers 500-1,500 Yuan Subsidies and 300+ Events: CITIC Calls a First-Tier Property Bottom — Canal Series Frames the Capex Backdrop

3 source channels · 2 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Chalmers Brands US-Iran War 'Economic Disaster' as French OAT Spread Widens on Fiscal Fears; Bangladesh Readies November LDC Graduation

5 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Iran's $2B Intervention Fails to Hold as Rial Slips Past 2.69M/USD; Brazil Sunday Caps a Week of Mixed Global Bond Sell-Off — Long End vs. EM Defenses

6 source channels · 2 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Tehran Reframes US-Iran Channel Around Hormuz as Tanker Takes Projectile Hit, Iraq Moves 2M-Barrel VLCC for First Time in Decades - Closure Demand vs Operational Workaround

6 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕IRGC Targets 7 Tankers in 5 Days, Iraq Loads 2M Barrels Beyond Hormuz as Third US Carrier and Qatari Proposal Arrive Overnight - Leverage Fades, Routes Bypass

4 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕OpenAI Safety Veteran With 12 Frontier-Model Reports Quits Calling Trial-and-Error 'Broken': Son Issues Rare Caution, White House Summit Yields 'Morally Binding' Pledge — Walkouts vs Binding Rules

11 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Safety Walkout Hits OpenAI as White House Stands Up Superintelligence Task Force; Huawei's Ascend Hits 50% China Share — Anthropic Files for $2T on $4.6B Revenue, $8B Loss, $518B Cloud Tab

9 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕AI Trade Is BofA's 'Last Line of Defense' as 5Y Auctions Print 5.033% — First Since 2007 — and 10Y Hits 5.33%, Yet Hartnett Calls the Long Bond 'Buy Humiliation'

4 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Soaring Treasury Yields Pin Gold Near a Decades-Long Pivot; BofA Sees Continued Inflows While Private Allocation Sits at 0.3% - HKEX Studies RMB Gold Futures

2 source channels · 2 min read