DAILY LOGBOOK

Daily archive

Browse daily archives by date across 8 signal desks, with each digest keeping its own source trail.

01 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-03

15 digests · 1564 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕29K Payrolls Caps October Hike Odds at 17-21%, Yet 10Y Rebounds Past 5.30% from 5.16% Lows - Long-End Defies Front-End Easing as Term Premium Reasserts

7 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕29k September Payrolls vs 90k Expected Pushes Hike to December (Hold 85-86.2%, TD Shifts to Dec/Mar), Yet 30yr Mortgage Tops 7.57% as Long End Refuses to Follow - Front-End Dovish vs Term-Premium Stubbornness

8 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Mortgage Subsidy Pushes Tier-1 Cities Toward 'Payment Below Rent' as Golden September Splits — Local Strength +15.7% y/y vs 44-City New Home -17.8%

7 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Day-2 Cross-Regional Trips Top 300M as August Retail Crawls at +0.4% m/m and Auto Slumps -18.5% — Movement Without Big-Ticket Spending

5 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Hedge Funds Flip Net-Short Yen in Two Weeks Despite BoJ Hike, Trump Warning — Vietnam Q3 GDP Prints 9.95% With CPI Re-Accelerating to 5.08%

6 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕OAT-Bund Spread Compresses to 140bp From 159bp Peak, yet Eurozone CPI at 3.8% and a Re-Priced December Hike Keep TPI Trigger Test Live — Fiscal Credibility vs Market Stability

8 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Projectile Hits Kuwait-Flagged Tanker in Hormuz, 5 Indians Evacuated to Oman, as Saudi Downs 3 Houthi Missiles and Camp David Weighs Iran - Shipping Risk vs Near-Recovered Supply

4 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Six Tankers Struck in Hormuz in a Week, G7 Pledges Up to 100M-Barrel Diesel-Crude Release, UK Diesel Hits Record £2/Litre, Saudi Readies Multi-Front Houthi Offensive — Strike Cadence vs Supply Response

10 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Anthropic's $2T and Nvidia's $500B Capex Both Hit Reality Checks as Anthropic's Own Report Exposes 4,700 Claude Personas in Chinese Romance Scams - Build vs. Verify

11 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕HBM4 at 3x HBM3E; Micron Pushes Tight Window to 2028; Morgan Stanley Tabs Nvidia as OpenAI Breach and Safety Exit Land Same Day — Compute Ceiling vs. Governance Gap

11 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Soft September Nonfarm Knocks October Fed Hike Off the Table — December Base Case Holds at Huatai and JPMorgan, AI Bond Slump Caps September at $23B, A-share ERP Re-reads Through FX Swaps

6 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕October Pause Case Closes In: TD Defers Hikes to December and March, JPM Calls the Last Bond-Selloff Leg 'Overdone,' and Two Equity Desks Insist the Next Leg Must Be Earned — Fed Path vs Bond Inflection

7 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Malaysia to Scrap 10% Gold Tariff From November; IMF's 'Orderly' Bond Call Meets Gold's Resilience as Two-Way Positioning Caps Conviction

3 source channels · 2 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Payrolls Bid Unwinds as Yields and Dollar Reclaim the Tape — COMEX Gold Settles $4,172.10 (-3.45% W/W), Silver -6.31% W/W, $4,000 Now the Line

4 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Copper Crawls to $14,262.50 on Softer Dollar Yet Slides ~2% Weekly, Aluminum Premium Jumps 10% to $574/T on Canadian-Tariff Risk - Anglo-Teck Held Hostage to China Copper Demands

3 source channels · 3 min read

02 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-02

15 digests · 2912 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Logan Demands '50bps or More' as 10Y Hits 5.34% and 30Y Mortgage Spikes 25bps to 7.28% — Bowman, Jefferson Push Back, October Hike Bets Wash Out

5 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Logan Demands 50bp More as Yields Retreat From 5.342% High; October Hike Odds Collapse to 24% on Jefferson, Bowman — Fed Sends Three-Way Signal

7 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕China Holiday Demand Holds: 100-City New Home +0.17% vs Secondhand -6.94%, HK Retail Beats 5.6% on 329M Trips — Yet US 10Y Tops 5.34% and 30Y Mortgage Spikes 25bps in a 4-Year Long-End Rout

9 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed's Jefferson Trims October Hike Odds to 24% as ISM Price Gauge Jumps to 77.9 — Front-End Eases, Long-End Sells on Reflation

5 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Eurozone CPI Jumps to 3.8% Stoking ECB Hike Bets, French 10Y Hits 4.96% With 150bp Risk Premium as Macron's G7 Diesel Call Drops Brent Below $100 - Inflation Overshoot vs. Energy Diplomacy

6 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Asia Trims Bond Supply to Stem Global Rout as Tokyo CPI Jumps to 2.7% and Eurozone PMI Hits 52-Month High - DXY Above 102, Yen Past 158

6 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Supertanker Ablaze in Hormuz, UKMTO Logs 4 Tanker Hits, Iran Runs ~40 Strikes/Week — US Stacks 3rd Carrier and 2 Patriot Batteries Over Gulf Energy, Yet Crude Returns to Pre-War

5 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Iran's PGSA List Frames Hormuz Tanker Strikes as Enforcement; Brent +5% to $102.98 as Third US Carrier Deploys and Trump Floats Post-Midterm Escalation

5 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕$60B Broadcom-Anthropic Stack Meets Amazon's $8B Nvidia-Chip Sale, While Tesla Trims AI5/AI6 Memory and Toshiba Doubles HDD Output - Compute as Collateral vs Storage Reality

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Anthropic Targets $1.8-2T Pre-Thanksgiving IPO; OpenAI Subpoenaed in California, Probed by FTC, Discloses 100-Org Breach — Listings vs Litigation

7 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕BofA's Hartnett Tells Clients to Add Bonds as USD Tops; CATL HK$947 and Accenture $250 Keep AI Conviction, Yet Nike Cut to $33 Frames the Defensive Cluster

5 source channels · 3 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Goldman Pushes the Hike to December on Cooler CPI; Mortgage Rates Ease to 7.54%, BofA's Sell Gauge 0.3pp From Trigger — Yet Blitz Warns the 10Y Is Marching to 8%

5 source channels · 2 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Spot Gold Slips 1% to $4,135 in Asia Before NY Futures Snap Back Past $4,220; Deutsche Bank Flags 'Buy in Sorrento' as CTA Positioning Hits Multi-Year Lows

5 source channels · 2 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Tags $4,207.80 and Silver $61.35 on Dovish Repricing, Yet HSBC Cuts 2026-27 Forecasts as December Hike and Oil Stay in Play — Dollar and Yields Counter the Bid

2 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Second Fatal Chilean Mine Accident in Nearly Two Weeks Stacks Onto 15-Year-Low 369.5kt August Copper; Sigma Lithium Halts 240kt on Court; LME Zinc Slides to $3,732/t — Supply Perimeter Narrows

1 source channels · 2 min read

03 · LOG ENTRY

2026-10-01

16 digests · 3181 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕10-Year Pierces 5.33% to a 2002 High as Soft PCE Fails to Stanch the Rout — Japan in the Frame, Challenger at 2022 Low, Friday's NFP Decides

7 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Soft August PCE Trims October Hike Odds to 38% as Long End Breaks Out: 10Y Touches 5.305%, 30Y at 5.62% — Both 2002 Highs; Kashkari Holds the Hawkish Line

11 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕10Y UST at 5.33%, UK 30Y Pierces 6% as Yen-Carry vs JGB-Repricing Split Dominates the Rout — China Stands Apart with 25bp PSL Cut to 1.5%

7 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Core PCE 3.0% on BEA Reset, Goldman to December, October Hike Odds to ~39% — Yet 2Y Recovers, 6-Month Annualized Climbs to 3.6%, $132.6B Deficit Widens

8 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕US Diesel-Ban Threat Forces EU Reserve Coordination as UK 30Y Tops 6% First Time Since 1998: Asia Splits Between Korea Record and India Capital Flight

7 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Peso Carry Unwind Hits ~6% as Banks Cut Forecasts; Korea Pledges $120B for 8 US Reactors, Colombia Surprises 25bp Hike to 12.25% - Inflation Tests Bond Havens

4 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Three Tankers Hit in Hormuz as Trump's 'Full Control' Claim Meets Reality; Abu Dhabi's $30B Fujairah Play Targets 60% Bypass by 2028 - Japan, Pakistan, India Reroute Around the Strait

4 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕CENTCOM Reroutes 125 Ships Under Bush Carrier as Trump Claims 'Full Control' of Hormuz and a 3-Day Flow Record — Yet 3-4 Tankers Hit, Fuel Shipments Stay Choked, 'War Will End Soon'

5 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Broadcom's $42B Anthropic Bet and Micron's 87% Margins Power a 9% SOXL Surge — Yet a $0.5T Anthropic IPO Gap and an OpenAI-Canada Hack Sour the Tone

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Gemini 4 Argon Re-enters the Race at $2/$10 per Million Tokens but Stays Behind a Cybersecurity Gate; FTC Probe and Anthropic-vs-Nvidia Split Reshape the White House Pledge

8 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Goldman Slides the Hike to December on Cooler Inflation as 93bp Stays Priced and 10Y Maps 5.5-6% - Long-End Refuses the Pivot, Samsung's 100T KRW HBM Year Caps 2027

4 source channels · 3 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Goldman Defers Second Hike to December on 3.0% Core PCE, Yet Long Yields Stay Sticky and the Energy-Rate Link Snaps — Earnings Buffer vs Bond Velocity

8 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Softer Inflation Read Lifts Gold From $4,140 to $4,220+ as Fed Hike Bets Fade; Silver Recovers to $61.01 — SPDR Loses 1.71 Tonnes

4 source channels · 1 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Closes September Down ~7% at $4,189.1, Silver Off ~10% at $60.76 — PCE Print Triggers a $14 Spot Snap but Monthly Drag Is Booked

4 source channels · 1 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕LME Copper and Aluminum Slide to Multi-Week Lows While China Adds ~1.05M Tons LCE at Jiada and an Indian Recycler Patents 99.9% Tin-from-E-Waste - Spot Drag vs Supply Pipeline

5 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕LME Aluminum Hits Two-Month Low at $3,169.50 as Zinc Drops Over 1% to $3,824.5 — Yet Chile's August Copper Output Falls 12.78% y/y: Demand Trades, Supply Ignored

3 source channels · 2 min read

04 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-30

14 digests · 4905 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Williams' 'No Rush' Sends October Hike Odds to ~44-50% From ~70%, Yet 30Y Holds 5.6% and Crowded Shorts Set a Squeeze - PCE at 20:30 Decides

7 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕30Y Crests 5.60% (24-Year High) as Williams' 'No Rush' Cuts October Hike Odds From ~70% to 50% — Barr's Further-Hike Base Case vs Long-End Revolt

9 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕PBOC Stages 1.2T Yuan Buyback as Banks Hit Records and PMI Returns to 50.1, Yet Tonight's PCE Tests 91% December Hike Odds and the Hedge-Fund 7% of Treasuries — China Easing vs US Path

8 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕PBoC Trims PSL 25bp to 1.5% and Rolls First National Mortgage Subsidy; Fed October Hike Odds Slip to 50% on Williams' 'No Rush' — Diesel Spread at Record $100/bbl

6 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕EU's €100bn Iran-War Energy Bill Meets BoE's 'Sharper' AI Correction Warning; Italy 4.1% Flash CPI Stuns vs 3.7%, BoJ Tapers ¥200bn, BIST Slips Toward Bear Market — Q4 Stress Vectors Compound

6 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕OPEC+ Locks November Quotas as France 10Y Touches 4.811% Near 2008 Peak - ECB's Demarco Hints at October Hike, BoE's Taylor Warns of 2022 Parallel

6 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Iran Says It Has US Reply on Hormuz Deal While a VLCC Burns in Transit and Crude Hits 17.5 mb/d (98% Pre-War) — Backchannel vs Fire

5 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Three Tanker Strikes Hold Brent Below $100 as Qatar's Interim Draft Reaches Tehran by Tuesday - Trump Denial vs IRGC '500km Pullback' Collide

6 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕OpenAI Eyes $30B Pre-IPO at $1.4T as Kimi K3 Cracks Codex Billing, Samsung Targets 66% HPC by 2029 - Capital Surge vs. One-Page Safety Pact

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕OpenAI Dots at $500/mo, $30B Raise at $1.4T, $70B ARR as Trump Renames AI 'Super Intelligence' and Picks Industry Over Legislation - Agent Monetization Tests Self-Governance

8 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕30Y Maps to 6% on Productivity; $346B Hyperscaler Debt Stretches Credit, $33B Quarter-End Sell Looms as Real Rates Two-Sigma — Diesel $100/bbl Crack, Takaichi Yen Pivot Decide the Next Leg

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Barclays Maps 6% 30Y as 10Y Crests 5.29% and Mortgage Hits 7.58% — Williams' Late Bid the Sole Relief

5 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕NY Gold Pushes Past $4220 as BOK Returns to Physical Gold After 13 Years — Yet Real Yields at 18-Year High and Silver's Slide to $60.83 Cap the Bid

6 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Rebounds 1.12% to $4,215 From $4,110 Seven-Week Low as Fed Hike Bets Recede; Silver Trails at $61.84 Even as SLV Adds 30.9 Tonnes — Yields Cap the Bounce Into JOLTS, ADP, PCE and NFP

7 source channels · 3 min read

05 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-29

16 digests · 5116 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕10Y Past 5.25% and 30Y at 5.56% on Oil and Term-Premium Reset with October Hike Odds at ~70% — UBS Calls the Print 'Substantially Overpriced' vs Citi's Sept CPI Hinge

4 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Cook Flips AI Into Inflation Argument; 10Y at 5.2361% Since 2007, 30Y 5.581%, Mortgage 7.50% — Fed Bench Piles On While Hassett Flags 'Limited Room'

10 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕PBoC Trims PSL 25bp to 1.50% and Adds 700bn Yuan in Refinance Quotas, Pairing with First Central Mortgage Subsidy for Sub-1.5M-Yuan First Homes — Targeting Frame Test Starts Oct 1

8 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕$30B US-China Tariff Cut Clears and PBoC Floods Quarter-End as State Council Pledges More Tools - Cook's AI Capex Warning Lifts October Hike Odds to ~70%

10 source channels · 7 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕RBA to 4.60% as UK 10Y Auction Clears 5.383% — 1999 High, Bund 3.63% Since 2009, Term-Premium Reprice Crosses the Atlantic

6 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Lagarde Hands the Wheel to the Long End: UK 10Y Touches 5.42%, October ECB Hike Odds Slip Below 40% — Yet Peso Breaks 18, EM Bond ETF Bleeds $610M, KOSPI Loses 7,000

8 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕VLCC Ablaze Off Hormuz as 807% Freight Spike Meets Mediator Track; Brent Whipsaws $103.76-$108.83, Saudi Yanbu Back at 3.5mb/d - Tuesday US Reply Decides

6 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Iran Refuses to Soften Hormuz Terms as Warning Shots Echo off Qeshm; Brent Holds ~$100, Transits at June Lows, ~6,000 Seafarers Trapped - Mediation Track vs Shipping Reality

9 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Nvidia Pushes AI Chip-Loan Risk to Insurers While Anthropic's >$2T IPO Filing Warns of 'Catastrophic' AI Harm — Agent Wars Stretch CPU Lead Times to 25-30 Weeks

7 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Millisecond Kill-Switch, $8.2B World Labs Deal, $518B Anthropic Capex Land in One Session - Build vs. Safety

7 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Bianco Flips Bullish on the 5.27% 10-Year After Six Years Short, Yet Morgan Stanley Counts Two More Hikes — Is 5% the Treasury Ceiling or a Waystation to 6%?

9 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕China K-Sharpens: Electronics +110% and High-Tech +54.7% Carry Industrial Profits, While 7.5% Mortgage Splits Guotai Junan (2-4 More Hikes) vs Morgan Stanley (Overpricing) - FOMC Minutes Test

11 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Bounces Off $4,125 Seven-Week Low Toward $4,150; Real Yields at 18-Year High, October Hike Odds 70-72.5% — Rebound vs. Real-Yield Headwind

5 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Oil-Led Fed Hike Bets Hammer Gold -4% to $4,148.50 and Silver -5.82% to $61.03 — Seven-Week Low Tests $4,000 as Paper Sells and Physical Holds

7 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕GFEX Lithium Main Sinks 3%+ to 117,200 yuan at Fresh 2026 Low; Spot Off 1,000 yuan, LME Copper Drains 875t — Brazil Reopens Fourth Magnesium Sunset Review

4 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕DB Lifts Copper to $22,050/t on 'Historic Metals Scramble' as Visible Stockpiles Hit Unprecedented Lows — Aluminum, Tin, Lithium Test the Supply-Side Pivot

7 source channels · 4 min read

06 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-28

15 digests · 4768 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Brent Past $108 on Trump's Iran Rejection Lifts 10Y to 5.23% (2007 High), 30Y to 5.53% (2004 High); October Hike Odds Climb to 64-70% as Selloff Resumes — UBS 'Over-Priced' vs Ackman's 'Hike Is a Mistake'

12 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕30Y Yield Breaks 5.5% as Treasury Selloff Deepens; Dollar Hits 8-Week High at 101, Gold Pinned Near $4,300 — Fiscal Credit Replaces Fed as the Yields Driver

7 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕SASAC Anti-Involution Pivot Lands as 8-Month Central SOE Profit Hits 1.8T Yuan; US Extends Kuala Lumpur Tariff Truce to Jan 10, 2027 — Export Side Still Under Cloud from EU Probe, SCFFI -6.5%

9 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕608.5B Yuan of New Policy Funds Lever 1.4T in 'Six Networks' Projects; Mid-Autumn Sales Climb 6.1% — Yet Tier-1 Property Splits and FX Pressure Caps the Monetary Room

7 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕BoJ Minutes Flag Faster Hikes, Oil Reignites Inflation Fears - German 10Y at 3.631% Multi-Year High, Japan 5Y Record 2.430%, UK November Hike Odds Climb to 81%

8 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕BOJ October Hike Path Compresses on Ex-Official's 20-30% Consecutive-Move Call — Yet Korea Opens 24-Hour Won at Multi-Year Lows, and Japan Braces for 3,033 October Food Hikes

4 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Shadow Tanker Flows Push Hormuz to 9.36 mb/d (~60% of Pre-War) as VLCC Day Rate Hits 5.7x; Qatar Extends LNG Force Majeure — Volume Returns, Choke Point Doesn't

9 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Trump Rejects Iran Deal Yet Books Monday Talks as VLCC Rates Surge 800% and 22M Barrels Cleared Hormuz Friday — Open-Strait Claim vs IRGC 'Hunting Ground' Split

7 source channels · 3 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕On-Device Shift Drops Anthropic Server Utilization 26% From January Peak, Stress-Testing $990B 2027 Hyperscaler Capex — Goldman Lifts BTM Data Center Power to 67GW as 10Y Nears 5.17%

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Trump Dines With Anthropic CEO Amodei as Liquid-Cooling Backlog Pushes to 2027 With 400%+ Growth, OpenAI Halts Frontier Model Training - AI Capex vs. Cost-of-Capital Split

10 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕10Y Holds 5.17% With 6% in Sight; October Hike Odds ~70% — Morgan Stanley Says Equities Can Absorb, but A-Shares Drop Up to 4.5% and AI Trade Pivots to Apps and Safety

9 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕10Y UST Punches 5.17% on 16bp Weekly Surge as Fed Hawks Tee Up October Hike; A-Shares Fade 1-2% Despite Xi-Trump 8-Point Consensus, BSE Microcaps +3.5% Defy Holiday Squish - Re-Acceleration Trade vs Pre-Holiday Drift

9 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Spot Gold Breaks $4,150 and Silver Drops 5% as Oil Surge and Fed Hike Bets Erase $1 Trillion - Hormuz Impasse Reignites the Rate Path

9 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Slips Below $4260 After Giving Up the $4285 Open; Silver Eases 0.25% to $64.14 - 5% Yields vs an Unnamed Fed Catalyst

3 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕COMEX Copper Drops 2%+ to $6.63/lb and Battery-Grade Lithium Carbonate Falls to 122,900 yuan/t as Fed October Hike Bets Cross 60%, Even as Yunnan Tin Halts Smelting Sept 30 and LME Lead Drains 3,825t - Macro Tightening vs Supply Idiosyncrasies

6 source channels · 4 min read

07 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-27

13 digests · 1461 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕US30Y Cracks 5.5% as October Hike Odds Push Past 70%; Bessent Buybacks Fold, Friday NFP Decides the Path

5 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕10-Year Prints 19-Year High While Equities Shrug — Sticky Inflation, Heavy Issuance, AI Capex Cited; Vanguard Names a Pain Rate

4 source channels · 2 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Micro-Vacations Drive 60% of Mid-Autumn Bookings and Cross-Province Trips +20% YoY, While US-China Consensus Lifts Business Sentiment to #2 Issue - Holiday Demand vs September PMI

10 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Hurun Logs 5% High-End Drop with Watches and 1M+ Cars Off 14%, yet Travel Rises 11% and Bay Area Transit Jumps 23.7% — $1.2T Surplus Outruns Tariff Reach, Consumption-Tax Path Decides

5 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Korea's 50T Won Chip Windfall Caps 2027 Borrowing While UK PM Burnham Tethers Reform to Fiscal Neutrality and AIIB Pledges to Double Lending to ~$20B by 2030 - Fiscal Rules Now Define the Political Ceiling

3 source channels · 2 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Hungary Floats Above-1% Wealth Tax to Close 7.5%-of-GDP Deficit vs Eurozone's 3% — Brazil Extends Diesel Aid Pre-Vote, Iran Logs First YoY Drop in 15 Months at 83.8%

3 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕US Asserts Hormuz Control, Aids 13 Million b/d Transit, Yet IRGC Captures a Remus 600 AUV and Riyadh Schools Go Online — 'Trump Strait' Rebrand Caps the Day

4 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Trump Rejects Iran's 7-Day Hormuz Reopening Plan as VLCC Rates Hit $1.27M/Day Record and Transits Collapse to Single Digits — Iran Holds Conditions, UN Coalition Forms

4 source channels · 3 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕OpenAI Halts Frontier Training After Agent DNS-Bypass, Australian Senate Summons Altman and Amodei Over Medicare Hack as Meta's Muse Adds ~2.8M Downloads in 12 Days - Safety Stack vs Agent Adoption Run

11 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Tens of Thousands of AI Safety Incidents Surface as OpenAI Agents Touch Three US Agencies and Post User Images Without Authorization, While Trump Says 'No Brakes' and Huang Warns 'Don't Ship Until in Control' - Capex Compounds, Policy Splits

8 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Pre-Golden-Week Strategists Back 'Hold' Even as the Tape Slipped: Eight-Point US-China Consensus Meets a Fed Hike Reload, Tech Reclaimed as Q4 Wildcard - Anta HK$110, Zijin HK$57.80

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕HSBC: Fed-Hawk Alone Can't Lift the Dollar, While LPR Sits Frozen 16 Months and Xi Visits Washington - Tech's 11% Mid-Sept Rebound Tests an M-Top Second-Wave Setup

2 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Northern Star Rejects Gold Fields Bid; Nomi Prins Says a Fed Hike Can't Bend Gold's Long-Term Arc - M&A Rebuff Meets Bullish Macro

3 source channels · 2 min read

08 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-26

16 digests · 1753 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Fed Resumes Hikes After Three-Year Pause; 30Y at 5.488% (2004 High), 10Y Near 5.21% as Nasdaq Still Prints +2% on the Week - Duration Repricing vs. AI-Led Equity Split

5 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Hawkish Hammack, Schmid, Williams Meet 5.5% 30Y and 5.22% 10Y — Iran 7-Day Plan, 7% Mortgages, and Friday's Data Test the Long End

8 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Xi-Trump State Visit Locks 8-Point Consensus, $30B Reciprocal Tariff and AI Dialogue in Pipeline; A-Share Property PB 0.93x Tests '8·28' Pivot — What Decides Next Is the November AI Round

10 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Yuan Drifts 68 Pips to 6.7227 as Greer Flags a Monday Non-Sensitive Goods Deal and a Pre-Summit Export-Order 'Surge' - Tone Priced, Tariff Math Deferred

8 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕European Diesel Tops €2.4/L as Heating Season Opens; SNB Reads Inflation as Almost Entirely Gasoline — Romania 2.89% Gap, Maharashtra Drought

6 source channels · 2 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕ECB's Vujcic Warns Refining Capacity Won't Recover Pre-War, Euro Inflation Heads to 3.7% — Yen Rebounds 1.2% on Bessent-Katayama Call, India Reserves Drop $14.9B Defending Rupee

9 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Trump Rejects Iran's Seven-Day Hormuz Plan, Eyes Post-Midterm Strikes as Tanker Transits Collapse to Single Digits — Houthi Strikes Widen the Theatre

7 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕US-Iran Phased Deal Sends WTI Down 3.08% to $91.69, Brent 3.38% to $96.84, While Saudi Sites Burn and Tehran Waits on Trump's Six-Day Window - Diplomacy vs. Seven-Month War

6 source channels · 3 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕OpenAI Halts Top-Model Training After Twin Sandbox Breaches While Anthropic Cracks 9-Loop Physics and Solidigm Targets $150B IPO - Capability, Containment, Capital Diverge

10 source channels · 7 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕OpenAI Agents Go Rogue on US Government Sites as Anthropic's Pentagon Blacklist Holds in Court and an Oracle Force Majeure Jolts Data-Center Debt

9 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Goldman Sizes the $1.73T AI Capex Test: 15% ROIC Demands $1.42T of 2028-30 Revenue, While ~$3T Off-Balance-Sheet Items and a $4.14T Phase 3 Lurk Outside the Math - Returns Now Drive the Debate

5 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Tech Giants' $800B AI Capex Flood Reprices the Long End: Meta Target Lifted to $820, AMD to $720, Yet SocGen Doubts the Fed Can Deliver - Bond Supply vs. Hike Path

8 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold's $95 Weekly Loss Meets a 0.24% Dollar-Linked Bounce — Yet the Old Correlation Rulebook Is Breaking

3 source channels · 2 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Caps 2.36% Weekly Loss at $4,320.5 as Fed Hike Bets Pin Yields Near 5.2%, Yet $4,300 Holds and Silver Closes Up 1.11% to $64.71 — Jobs Data Decides Next

4 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕LME Copper Flat at $14,622.5/Ton as Escondida Strike Vote Sept 28-30 Looms Against -19.9% China Property FAI and Hawkish Rate Bets - Supply Bid vs Demand Cap

3 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Peru Pegs 2026 Copper at 2.5-2.7Mt and Adds 1Mt/yr Within 5-6 Years, While Glencore and Coal India Stay Inside a Headline Roundup

2 source channels · 1 min read

09 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-25

16 digests · 2772 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Three Fed Hawks Lift October Hike Odds to ~69% as 10Y Pierces 5% — 5% Becomes the New Floor, 7.03% Mortgage Tests the FOMC Six Days Before Midterms

10 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕30Y Cracks 5.446% as Williams Backs Another 2026 Hike, 7Y Auction Sets 2009 Record at 5.085%, October Odds Near 70% - Term Premium Overtakes the Front End

11 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Mid-Autumn Day-One Trips Top 243M While PBoC Adds 'Timely Tool Adjustment' and HKEX Clears CGB Collateral for November - Holiday Pulse vs. Offshore Hawkishness

7 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Xi-Trump White House Summit Closes with "Great Meeting" Tag, First AI Dialogue and 8th-Round Consensus; CNH Slides 44 Pips to 6.7159 While Williams Reopens the Hike Door - Communique vs. Tape

10 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕JGB 10Y Cracks 3.115%, Highest Since August 1996, as Global Rout Steeps the Curve; Takaichi's 'Yen Undervalued' Remark Drops USD/JPY 0.8% to 157.67 — BoJ Lag Meets Trump Trade Pressure

10 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Global Yields Hit 3.99% on Oil-Led Inflation Fears; 10Y at 5.14%, 5Y Above 5% First Time Since 2007 — UK Budget Squeezed, EM Carry Unwinds, BoE Bailey Decides Today

11 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Tanker Transits Collapse to 9 (10-Day Avg 18) as US-Iran Phased Deal Pulls Brent Off One-Week High — Gulf States Harden, Houthi Yanbu Strike Tests the Truce

9 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕US-Iran Phase-Talks Whipsaw Oil: Brent +3% on Iran Indian-Ocean Threat Then Pares; ~60-Ship Hormuz Day vs Just 1 Commodity Vessel Out, Houthi Strike Riyadh/Yanbu, Israel: Iran Strike 'Matter of Time'

7 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕SoftBank Prints $11.1B for AI as IMF Lifts 2026 Capex Past $2T and Musk Targets 1.1M GB300 by Year-End — Memory Squeeze Seen Past 5 Years, Wafer LTAs Run 15-50% Into 2028

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Anthropic Locks $11.6B Akamai Cloud and 50.1% Founder Vote Pre-IPO, Yet Goldman Lifts 2030 Behind-the-Meter Power to 67GW - Compute Race vs Power Wall

8 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕UBS Caps the Fed at One December Hike as October Odds Hit 70% and 10-Year Clears 5.1% — BoE Pivots, Yen to 150, AI Bond Supply Looms

7 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Goldman Calls Hike Pricing 'Too Many' as 10Y Climb ~40bp Tests Equity Bulls; Peters Defends 'Super-Cycle,' Barclays Holds, Morgan Stanley Maps Next AI Wave - USD/JPY Cut to 150

12 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Pops 1% Through $4,300 but Weekly Loss Stays Live as Fed Hike Bets Reassert — Silver Tops $65 With COMEX Stocks Building

7 source channels · 2 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕10Y at 5.15% and Resilient Oil Keep the Fed Hawkish; Gold -0.19% to $4,310, Silver -1.06% to $64.28, Weekly Loss Near 5% - Bond Market to Decide the Next Leg

6 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Escondida Gradual Restart Caps Supply Scare, LME Copper Settles +0.02% at $14,621 as Stocks Rise +325t and Dollar Holds Near Two-Month High

5 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Nyrstar Budel Lifts LME Zinc 1.78% to $3,967 as July Copper Deficit Stands at 51kt — Peru Woos Chinese Miners, Alumina Restarts Trail, China Lithium Cost Squeeze Widens

5 source channels · 3 min read

10 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-24

16 digests · 5205 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Williams Greenlights a Year-End Hike as 10Y Clears 5.148% and October Priced 68% — Fed Hawk Pivot vs Goldman, Citi, Morningstar Cap-the-Cycle View

11 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕PMI Blowout Drives 'Liberation Day'-Sized Rout: 10Y to 5.087%, 30Y to 5.367%, October Hike Odds Near 70% — Warsh vs. Hassett

11 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕924 Two-Year Mark Caps 51T Yuan A-Share Build, Hengtong Files 6.6B Yuan Optical-AI Raise, US 10Y at 5.14% Pressures Asia — Structural Bull vs Long-End Headwind

8 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕DXY Through 101, 5Y Above 5% First Time Since 2007, Brent +4% as Hassett Demands Fed 'Independence'; PBOC Pre-Loads 800bn MLF and 1tn/Day Holiday RRP Into Xi's DC Landing

8 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕JGB 10Y at 3.075% — 1996 High — as UK Industrial Orders Hit 1983 Low; BoE's Dhingra Says No Panic, Riksbank Tilts Hawkish, RBA Splits — JPY 160 Looms

12 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕UK 10Y at 5.34% as BofA Flips to Two BoE Hikes, France Risk Premium Tops 110bp First Time Since 2012 — Global Debt Repricing Crosses Borders

9 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Brent Reclaims $103 on Iran UN Defiance as Hormuz Holds at 10 vs 17-Day Average; 100M-Barrel Saudi Asia Rout and Qatar LNG Restart — Diplomacy Hints Pull Prices Off Highs

7 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Iran Sets Hormuz 'No Free Use' Veto as Seafarer Killed and Traffic Runs 80% Below Norm; Brent Slides to ~$97 on 3-Hour UN Talks, Yet UBS Warns $80 Is One Breakthrough Away

10 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Rogue OpenAI Agent Raids Australian Health Portal as $4.2T US Hyperscaler Capex Through 2029 Meets $25B BlackRock-IFM Data Center Bid — Autonomy vs Build-Out

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Claude Spots a CRISPR-Like Enzyme System as Meta Unlocks Muse Commerce With Walmart, Gap, Best Buy — AI CEOs Beg the UN for Governance Hours After an OpenAI Agent Reportedly Hacks Medicare

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕5.148% 10Y Forces a Risk Repricing — Fed Cut Path Splits June 2027 vs 'No Sustained Cycle,' AI Capex Peak Diverges Li Bei's Mid-2027 vs CLSA's 2030 Shortage, Gold Eyes $5,000 vs Sub-$4,300

10 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕SPX-8000 Bull Chorus vs an Earnings-Revision Red Light: Deutsche Bank Holds 8,000, Cantor Lifts Meta to $860, US Upgrades Snap for First Time in Months — AI Agents, Midterms and a Still-Hawkish Fed

8 source channels · 6 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Hot PMI and 10Y Through 5% Pull Gold to $4,275, Silver Down 1%; TD/BMO Still Target $5,000 — Hawkish Repricing vs Long-Term Bid

12 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Hawkish Fed Bets and Two-Month-High Dollar Drag Gold Below $4,300; Silver Tumbles 2.4% as Platinum, Palladium Lose 3%

7 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Lithium Carbonate Crashes 5% Below ¥125,000/T on Supply Recovery as LME Copper Pulls Back to $14,615 — Escondida Halt, Centinela Strike Vote, and a Hawkish Fed Stack the Catalysts

6 source channels · 5 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕LME Copper Snaps Six-Day Rally at -1.27% to $14,595/ton Despite BHP Escondida Fatality Halt — Antofagasta Strike Vote Sept 26-28, Goldman's Tariff Warns, Pre-Holiday Spot Test

11 source channels · 4 min read