DAILY LOGBOOK

Daily archive

Browse daily archives by date across 8 signal desks, with each digest keeping its own source trail.

01 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-23

16 digests · 5311 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Hawkish Repricing Accelerates After Last Week's Fed Hike: Swaps Price 3 More Moves by Mid-2027, Dollar Hits 8-Week High, 2s/10s Collapses to ~22bp — Yet Options Market and El-Erian Flag Over-Tightening Risk

8 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Traders Stack 2.7M SOFR Calls to Hedge a Dovish Surprise as Swaps Price Three More Hikes; Haydar Sees 4-6 Still Needed — Barkin 'Unclear,' Warsh Walks Out on Dot Plot

12 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Henan Adds ¥56.0bn to Local Bond Supply as Gold Slides 1.1% to $4,310 and South-Bound Flows Hit a 13-Day Streak - Supply Pump vs Re-anchoring Trade

7 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕4th Straight Month of Foreign Bond Inflows as CNY Slips 52 Pips; Wuhan Backs YMTC, Alibaba Targets 20GW Cloud by 2032 — EU Trade Gap Runs €1B/Day

8 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕OECD Lifts 2026 Growth to 2.9% and India to 7.1% Yet Sounds Alarm on Bond Yields and Energy Inflation - BoE Told to Sit at 3.75% as ECB and BoJ Lean Hawkish

10 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕French 10Y Jumps 3.3bp to 4.505% as Fico Demands Emergency EU Energy Summit; ECB's Nagel Floats Mild Tightening — Real Rates Climb Globally

8 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Brent Below $99 on US-Iran Talks and Saudi Pipeline Restart, Yet Just 3 Hormuz Transits vs 15-Day Average and VLCC Rates Hit Record $1.2mn/Day

8 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Iran's 7-Day Hormuz Offer Yanks WTI Under $90 and Brent to $93.83 as Araqchi Meets Witkoff — Yet Two Tanker Strikes and a Riyadh Flight Stand-Off Refuse to Let the Premium Fade

12 source channels · 3 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕GPT-6Luna's $0.10/M Print Undercuts DeepSeek as 1.6T DSP Gap Widens to 20M+ Units in 2027 and Burry Lifts AI-Infra Shorts — Price War Meets Supply Crunch

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Cheaper Tokens, Hotter Agent Race: Anthropic Opus 5.5 and OpenAI's GPT-6 Sub-Tiers Cut Costs 40-50% the Day After Calling for a Slowdown, While Meta's Muse Tops App Charts and OpenAI Reportedly Builds 'Aeon'

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Post-Hike Repricing Pivots China Research to Banks, Copper-Gold and AI Cash Flow, 10Y UST Anchored 4.5-5% - Howard Marks Says Buy-Backs Are an 'Ice Pack' on the Fiscal 'Fever'

11 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Warsh's Hike Confirms a Two-Speed US; Pimco Quits Long-Bond Underweight as 5%+ Lures, BofA Lifts H2 Brent to $95 — AI Capex vs Housing Drag

9 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Breaks Below $4,310 on Iran Whipsaw and Fed's Barkin; Silver Drops 2.92% to $65.07 — Yet ETF Holdings Hit 7-Month High as Real Yields Reach 20-Year Peak

9 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Silver Surges 2% to $67.45 While Gold Caps at $4,396 on Dollar Strength Post-Fed - Cross-Metal Divergence Tests Fidelity's $5k Liquidity Thesis

5 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Copper Retreats From Near-Record on Fed Caution; Lithium Carbonate Drops 3%+ to 128,860 yuan; BHP Escondida Strike Risk Resurfaces - Base Metals Broadly Lower

4 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕COMEX Copper Pops 2% to $6.9/lb, LME Splits, but IMIP NPI Cuts and a $1B Glencore-Recycle Offtake Reframe the Squeeze - 1Mt Stockpile Risk Caps the Bid

7 source channels · 2 min read

02 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-22

16 digests · 5295 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Unanimous 25bp Hike Locks In 75bp More Through Mid-2027; 2Y at 4.76% as HSBC's DUSTIN Calls for a 1-Month Yield Pullback — Hawkish Roster vs USD Ceiling

7 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Goolsbee Brands 2% Path 'Painful' as Bessent Puts the 30Y on a Liquidity Clock — Hawkish Repricing Meets the Treasury Repo Lifeline

9 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Wang Wentao Logs VDA and ACEA Auto Calls as Southbound Inflows Hit HK$12.7B and A-Shares Edge 0.06% on AI Bid, 30Y Treasury Futures +0.25% - Diplomacy, Rotation and Curve Bids in Parallel

9 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕PBOC Pitches Dual Opening as CNH Holds 6.6929 After 6.70 Breach, Yet A-Share Property's 8% Two-Day Rally Replays the Supply-Side Script - Hubei Subsidies and WeBank's 15bp Hike Tilt the Mix

8 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Hawkish Pivot Reaches RBA and RBNZ as Oil Surge Reignites Inflation Risk; 275bp US-Japan Spread Keeps Yen Carry Alive, UK Borrowing Miss Adds Fiscal Strain - Inflation Reignites, Carry Stress

12 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕France 5Y CDS Cracks 45bps — First Post-Covid High — as UK Mortgage Bill Climbs £840/yr, RBA's Hunter Floats a Fourth 2026 Hike, Turkey Fund Crisis Deepens

9 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Transit Collapses to Two Vessels; Brent Breaks $95, WTI Falls 2% to $90.45 — Yanbu Restart and UN Diplomacy Threaten the Risk Premium

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Saudi Reroutes 14M Barrels via Hormuz; Brent Settles $100.34 on a 4-Day Slide as Iran Downs a US Drone and Barclays Flags ~50% Upside - Diplomacy vs Tail

12 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Muse Tops U.S. iOS in Five Days, Lifting Meta ~12% and Zuckerberg +$25B; Jefferies Sizes PCB/ABF at $73B/$30B by 2030 - SoftBank's $50B Data Center IPO Delay Tests the Agent Capex Bet

7 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕AI Capex Hits Three Constraints Overnight: Nscale's $103B Backlog Sits 85% With Microsoft and Anthropic, Texas Halts Data-Center Permits, BC Sues OpenAI

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕AI Memory Squeeze vs Hawkish Fed: eSSD +52.9% and 2027 NAND Shortfall 6.1% Sit Beside a Dot Plot Pointing to One More 25bp - Hong Kong Five-Year Plan Opens Bank Channel

9 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Three Central Banks Hike, Markets Shrug - DB Hawks Terminal on $96 Brent, Barclays Flags +50% Oil, Goldman Holds the Dovish Counter

8 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Cracks $4,300, Silver -3% as 88% December Hike and DXY 100.43 Press; China Record Demand ($160bn, 1,000t) Holds the Bid - Hawkish Fed vs Structural Floor

10 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Whipsaws $4,326 to $4,350 Overnight as Dollar Bite Fades; Silver's 8-Day ETF Streak and UBS's $80 2027 Target Anchor the Bid - Hike Odds vs Structural Floor

7 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Copper Extends a Six-Day Run as China Physical Tightens; Morowali 100kt NPI Cut Reignites Nickel — LME Fund Lengths Trim

4 source channels · 6 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕US Tariff-Stocking Pushes LME Copper to $14,661 as a $500M African Bulker Lands in New Orleans, Yet Cobalt Crashes ~30% and Aluminum Braces for a 2027 Indonesian Glut

6 source channels · 4 min read

03 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-21

15 digests · 4647 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Warsh's 'Reduce Accommodation' Reprices the Curve: 2Y +13bp in an Hour, October at 51%, December Past 90%, 10Y at 5.01% — Morgan Stanley Caps Terminal at 4.25-4.50% as BofA Flags 5%+

8 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed Restarts Hiking With 25bp to 3.75-4.00% as August CPI/PPI Print +0.4% M/M and Oil Tops $100 on Iran War — Short-Duration Bid Meets Supply-Side Inflation It Cannot Fix

10 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Shanxi Coal Cuts Top 100Mt in Three Months, Coking Coal Hits ¥1,508/t While LPR Marks 16th Hold and ¥165B Repo Stays at 1.40% - Supply Squeeze vs Monetary Stillness

8 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕He Lifeng-Bessent Open New York Talks With Xi-Trump Summit Deliverables Pending; S&P Lifts China Securities Anchor to 'bb+'; 224bn Amortized-Cost Bond Pipeline Locks 5Y Credit - LPR Holds, 2Y/3Y Deposit Curves Invert

11 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Rate-Hike Wave Lifts Yields as Yen Volatility Spurs Intervention Watch, RBI Reserves Snap 5-Year Streak — Asia FX Stress vs Carry Calm

11 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕IMF Pulls 100% Debt-to-GDP Crossover to 2029 as Bessent Recasts Norway Treasury Rotation; Korea Maps $350bn US Plan, Qatar $38.5bn Pipeline

6 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Tanker Hit in Hormuz Lifts War Premium as VLCC Freight Tops $30/Bbl; Pentagon Pizza Index Spikes, Trump Returns Early — UN Track Caps Brent Below $108

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕WTI Reclaims $97 as Qatar Brokers a Hormuz Off-Ramp Against Parliament's Closure Vow and 109 Rerouted Ships — Diplomacy Window vs Continued Closure

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Samsung HBM4 Output Set to Double as Asia Compute Buildout Accelerates — Yet Goldman Tags 2027 Hyperscaler Debt at $420B and BofA Sees $1.2-1.5T External Financing by 2030

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Huang Counters Doomsday Lobby as Zhipu Lifts ARR to $3B, Crusoe Closes $3.9B at $30.9B — Trump Readies 'AI Force' Before Xi, Energy Overtakes Chips as Choke Point

12 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Hawkish SEP Lifts 2026 Median to 4.1% With 16 of 18 FOMC Members Flagging More; 30Y at 5.3% and Brent Past $100 Keep the Path Through 2027

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed Hike Lands; STAR 50 +6.39% and 10Y UST Touches 5.01% as Dot Plot Leaves One More Hike Alive — Pre-Holiday Window vs. Q3 Earnings Becomes the Asymmetric Trade

8 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Cracks $4,350 Then $4,340 as DB Argues Reserve Managers, Not Warsh, Drove the Prior Rally — Silver Whipsaws $66-67

9 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Long-End Yield Inflection Floated as Gold's Next Catalyst; Spot Opens Slightly Lower at $4,373.75 — Bessent Frames Dutch Repatriation as Preference, Not USD Rejection

1 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Zimbabwe Disruption Lifts Lithium Carbonate 4% to 133,600 Yuan as Copper Demand Slumps 18.6% and the US Arbitrage Unwinds - Tin Imports +112%, Nickel Watches El Niño

5 source channels · 4 min read

04 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-20

14 digests · 2090 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Fed Hikes 25bp to 3.75-4.00% for the First Time Since July 2023 as 16 of 18 Officials Eye Another 2026 Move — Warsh-Trump Split, $60bn Equity Exodus, and ~7% Mortgages Test the Long End

5 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed Delivers 25bp Hike, Targets 2% by 2029 with 'Slightly Higher' Rates — BofA's Quinlan Says Diesel Could Keep the Door Open for More

3 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕440+ Housing-Fund Edicts This Year at 2.4/Day as LPR Holds, Li Chenggang Steps Into the Ministerial Trade-Talk Seat - Property Blitz vs Central Patience

8 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕August Data Deepens 'Supply-Strong, Demand-Weak' Split: PPI Rebounds to 3.8%, PMI 49.8%, Yet Auto Retail -18.5% and FAI -7.2% - HK Unveils First 5-Year Plan, MOFCOM Fires Back at Graham Act

7 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕BoJ Delivers 25bp to 1.25% (Highest Since '95) Yet Yen Sinks 2%+ Into Three-Day Holiday; JGB 30Y at 4.18%, France Debt to 121.7% as Six Central Banks Test the Rout

8 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕11% of French Stations Run Dry as Diesel Nears €2.38 Record, Berlin Pitches €2.5B Relief, and Stournaras Keeps October Hike Alive — Supply Crunch vs Fiscal Patch

5 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Saudi Reroutes 2.8 mb/d via Hormuz vs 0.7 mb/d in August, Easing Pipeline-Shock Fears — Yet Iran Vows Closure, Trump Cuts Camp David to Weigh Houthi Strikes

6 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Blockade Zeros Iran Crude as Saudi Pipeline Loss Pushes Brent to $132 From $90; 6-Month-High Hormuz Throughput Now Runs Into Refinery Chokepoint - No JPMorgan Baseline

11 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Agentic AI Splits the Cost Curve: 100x Nvidia AgentX Demand vs Jev's 193.6x Speedup at $0.042/M Tokens — MLCCs Up 10x, TSMC Lifts CoWoS, Anthropic Eyes 5GW

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕AI Safety Splits Three Ways: 'AI Tsar' vs 100-Expert Hinton-Backed Independent Oversight vs Credit Stress — Oracle's $18B Loan Sells at 89-91 Cents

13 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕A-Shares Hit a 'Just-Right' Rebound Window as Fed Lands a 12-0 Hike and Oil Cools — Yet Real-Estate Drag Caps Consumer Confidence, El Niño Build-Up Looms for 2027 Q1

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕STAR 50 Jumps 6.39% on Growth Rotation, but Shenwan Maps 2026 Remainder to Consolidation as Fluid-Dynamic Test Rejects the Momentum Equation — Mid-Cap Beta vs Missing Structural Anchor

1 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Citi Maps Silver to $75 Near-Term, $90 in 6-12 Months on Fed Pivot, as Gold's $3.1B Weekly Inflow Meets a Range-Bound Tape

3 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕China's August Metals Trade Inverts as Ore Imports Fall 5-15% on Guinea Pullback, Yet Refined Zinc Exports Leap 12,980% and Alumina +135.78% — Indonesia AD Probe and CATL Restart Set the Tone

5 source channels · 5 min read

05 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-19

16 digests · 1976 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Warsh Frames the Hike as One 'Dose' of Accommodation at 3.75-4%; 10Y Back Above 5% First Time Since 2007, October Hike Odds Hit ~58%, NBIM Proposes 70→50% Bond Cut — Stimulus Frame vs Foreign Allocation

7 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕25bp Hike, 130-Word Statement Since 2007: 2Y Jumps to 4.74% with Repo Specials for 2Y/5Y/7Y Auctions, Schmid Cites 'Hot' Inflation Above 3% — IP Miss and NAHB 3-Year Low Undercut the Hawk

12 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Auto Exports +53% Drive 1-8M Trade +19% as August Fiscal Slows to 4.7% and Housing Enters 'Stock Era' — External Engine vs Domestic Drift

8 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕USD 7-Week High (100.448) Post-Fed-Hike Meets CNH at 6.6955, Near 2022 Floor 6.6862 — Aug Output +5.2% Y/Y Masks 18.9% Youth Jobless and 1.10T-Yuan Construction-AP Pile

7 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕BoJ Lifts to 1.25% as Dove Dissent Pulls Citi's Terminal to July 2027 — Eurozone Slowdown and France -1% q/q Cap a Synchronized Tightening Week

7 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕BOJ Hikes 25bp to 1.25% But Yen Sinks for Fifth Day; Rate Check Pulls USD/JPY From 158 Back Below 157 as Hedge Funds Flip Bullish for First Time Since July 2025 — Europe Sovereigns Redrawn Overnight

11 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz in Single Digits: Iran Strikes and Detains a Tanker, Three Attacks in 48 Hours Force Saudi Crude Back Toward the Strait; Saudi Asks Israel for Help - Trump Floats 'Annihilating' the Regime

6 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Aramco Cuts Europe, Iran Strikes Hormuz Tanker, Yet WTI Falls 1.11% to $96.15 on Trump-Houthi Talks; Sverdrup Premium Spikes to $35/bbl vs 60¢ Two Weeks Ago - War Risk Decouples From Undeliverable Barrels

9 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕UBS Lifts 2026 AI Capex to $998B with ~90% From Memory, While Anthropic Mulls Pre-IPO Model and Post-Midterm Listing - Compute Inflation vs Frontier Slowdown

11 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕TSMC's ~10% Wafer Cost Passes Through to AMD, Intel, and Onsemi Within 60 Days as a $2.28B Meta-Linked HY Prints at 8.25% - ASICs Set to Top GPU in 2027, Anthropic Taps Accenture, IPO Slips to November

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Barclays Pushes Humanoid Robot Mass Deployment to 2035 and Sits the Compute at the Edge, Calling the First Physical-AI Wave Likely Non-Humanoid - Intelligence, Not Hardware, Is the Real Bottleneck

4 source channels · 3 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Goldman Eyes S&P 8,700 on ~30% Profit Growth as BofA Flags a 5% Warsh Redo, ING Sees EUR/USD at 1.132, and Capital Economics Warns of $100+ Oil — Earnings vs. the Hawk Tail

11 source channels · 6 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Holds $4,300 After 25bp Hike as 'Smart Money' Bids the Dip — Lucas Lens Says the Real Mechanism Is the Next $1T of Debt, Not the Fed

2 source channels · 2 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold, Silver Shrug Off the Fed's First Hike in Three Years to Post First Weekly Gain in Four as the Real-Rates 'Iron Rule' Breaks — Structural Bids vs. Hawkish Dot-Plot

4 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕China-Korea Nonferrous MOU Lands With Sichuan's 3.5Mt Lithium Target; UK Steel Reopens State-Aid Tap — Asia Capacity Push vs Western Producer Strain

3 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Copper Logs 11 Weekly Gains in 12 as Yangshan Premium Tops $124/Ton 4-Year High, While MMG Commits $500M to Anglo American's Brazil Nickel - Lithium Splits

9 source channels · 4 min read

06 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-18

16 digests · 5171 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Fed's Three-Year First Hike Lands 12-0; 10Y Reverses Below 5% on Warsh-Trump Truce — 4.1% Peak, 76.9% December Odds, and a $349B PE Zombie Pile Test the Path

8 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Warsh's First Hike Lands 12-0 at 3.75-4.00%, Yet 10Y Rallies to 4.99% and KKR Targets 5.1% by Year-End — October a 50-57% Coin Flip, $19B TIPS Auction the Tell

13 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Income Tax Surge Meets Property Collapse: Corporate +7.3% and PIT +14.5% vs Land Sales -28.6% and Consumption Tax -3.6% — Slow Special-Bond Issuance Tests Q4 Flex

8 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕800B-Yuan Policy Tool Targets ~10T Leverage; CNH Presses 6.7041 Near July 2022 Low; Property Bullish at 56% Yet Sellers Dominate — Stimulus Push vs Capital Allocation

7 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕BOJ Lifts to 1.25% With Two Dissenters as Ueda Floats Consecutive Hikes; Yen Holds 157, OAT-Bund Spread Hits 100bp - Hawkish Path vs. Fiscal Friction

12 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Japan Core CPI Undershoots at 1.7% vs 1.8% on BOJ Day as BOE Holds 3.75% 6-3 Hawkish and Overhauls £146bn QT — Wells Fargo Shorts JPY, Target 159

11 source channels · 6 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Tanker Hit as Daily Transit Collapses to 4 vs ~16; Iran Claims Strike, UN Tallies $150B First-Month War Cost — $100 Oil Defies Three-Session Slide

10 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕IRGC Strikes Togo Tanker as US Reroutes 104 Ships, $10,948 Container Rate Tests Pandemic Peak - TACO Trade Stops Working in Hormuz

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Three AI Names Clear $5T While First L4 10,000-GPU Cluster Goes Live — Thermal Ceiling and NYT Copyright Wall Now Set the Pace

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia Targets 2x Chip Sales, Claude at 26% of AI R&D, Bridgewater Floats 5% Compute Threshold, While OpenAI-Microsoft Executives Call Products 'Substitutive' in Court - Scale vs Scaffolding

7 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Fed 12-0 Hike Splits the Tape: $12T China Industrial 5.0 vs Bridgewater AI Exit, $106 Oil vs $90 Fair Value — One-and-Done or Start of Cycle?

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Warsh's 12-0 Hike Pins the Dot at 4.13% as KKR Lifts 10Y to 5.1% — Credit Tightens to 77bp, Equities and Long Duration Diverge

6 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Decouples From Hawkish Fed With Two-Day Rebound Toward $4,400, Silver +2% — 10Y Yield and Oil Pullback Do the Pricing

9 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Whipsaws on First Fed Hike in Three Years — $4,360 Peak, $4,263 Trough, 2.53% Rebound; Silver Outpaces at +5% as Crude Drops 5.28%

6 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Post-Fed Dollar Softens, China Returns to Copper: SHFE Lead +2.03%, Yangshan Premium 4-Year High $121/t - Coking Coal Crashes 7.78% in Black-Green Split

5 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕LME Copper Tops $14,500 as US Cuba-Nickel Sanctions and Brazil Tariff Leverage Reshape Sourcing — Yet Chinese Night Session Splits With Crude Down 4%

11 source channels · 4 min read

07 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-17

16 digests · 5685 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Warsh-Led Fed Lifts Rates 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, 13bp More Priced for October, 10Y Back Above 5% and DXY 100.3 — Asia Equities and Gold Past $4,300 Refuse to Cooperate

8 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed Ends Three-Year Pause With 25bp Hike to 3.75-4.00%, Dot-Plot Median Lifts to 4.1% — Yields Rebound, Gulf Synchronizes 25bp, Trump Demands 1%

8 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕PBOC's ¥159B Net Injection Meets ¥1T A-Share Turnover and Yiwu's Record ¥548.85B Export Print — Liquidity Lifeline vs Fed Hike Spillover

9 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed's 25bp and Warsh's Three Reasons Reset 10Y Above 5% and Dollar Through 100, HKMA Tracks to 4.25% and Pinglu Canal Reopens Southwest-ASEAN - One More 2026 Hike Priced, China Real Economy Plants Flags

7 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕BoE Set to Hold 3.75% on 6-3 Vote as 10Y Gilts Sit at 5.282%; BoJ's 1.25% Hike Tomorrow, ECB October Door Open — Vote Math, QT Plan, and the Food Risk

12 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Gulf Pegs Snap 25bp Higher in Lockstep, BoC Minutes Float Hike Risk, Bunds Pin 17-Year Highs — Sterling at 1.3397, Tera Defaults Jolt EM

8 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Saudi Workaround Eases the Brent Rout: Pipeline Restart in Days, Yet Hormuz Traffic Drops to Three Ships and Diesel Tops $6 — Houthi Strikes Refuse to Fade Before UNGA

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Houthis Hit Three Saudi Pipeline Stations and Iran Strikes a US-Chartered Tanker Near Hormuz: Oman Crude at $132.09 Carries a $24 Brent Premium, Wright Floats the Defense Production Act - Rerouting vs Escalation

11 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Compute Hits Million-Processor Scale as Rhodium Logs a 10x Revenue Gap: OpenAI-Anthropic Out-Earn All Chinese AI Models, the $180B 'AI Trade' Receipt Test

10 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕OpenAI Discloses Six 'Concerning' Model Behaviors; DoD Slams Safety Spend, Loudoun Eyes 12-Month Data-Center Freeze, AEMA Targets 100 GW — Safety Alarm vs. Build-Out Race

9 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Fed Lifts to 3.75-4.00% on a 16-of-18 Hawkish Dot; Goldman Adds October, Deutsche Bank Flags the Shallowest Cycle in Modern History — Stocks-and-Yields-Rising Is Back on the Table

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Fed Resumes Hiking, Warsh Doubles Down; Cycle Shape Splits - Citi One-and-Done vs Deutsche Bank's Moderate Tightening - as 3.4% Core PCE and Term Premium Re-Price the Long End

10 source channels · 7 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Spot Gold Reclaims $4,330 and NY $4,350, Silver +2% to $64 After Fed's First Hike in Three Years — Banks Add Vaults but MUFG and CICC Cap the Ceiling

8 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Warsh Wipes Out Gold's Pre-Fed $4,400 Spike: Spot Below $4,242 and Silver Past 2% as More Tightening Teed Up — Long-End Yields Are Now the Lifeline

6 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Hawkish 25bp Hike Lands; Lithium Carbonate Jumps 4%+ to ¥131,500/t and LME Copper Stockpiles Climb Past 250,000t - Industrial Metals Brush Off the Dot Plot

4 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Copper Tests $14,800 Tariff Bid While LME Closes Mixed and Lithium Breaks the 'Golden September' Trade — Fankou Restarts, Codelco Slips to End-2026

6 source channels · 3 min read

08 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-16

16 digests · 5359 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕90%-Priced 25bp Hike vs. 5.4% 30Y: 'Dovish Hike' Consensus Tests Warsh's Silence-Trade, with Dot-Plot Dissent and December Repeat to Decide

8 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕20Y Auction Clears at Record 5.420%, 30Y Through 5.4%, Mortgage 7.22-7.25% as >90% Wednesday Hike and a Second 2026 Move Are Priced — The Long End Outruns the Path

11 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕PBOC Nets RMB 113B at 1.40% as MOF Refloats RMB 130B 3Y at 1.23% and RMB 90B 10Y at 1.66%, Yet EU/US Reopen Stainless and Boltless Shelving Sunset Reviews — Front-End Easing vs Trade Defense Reassertion

9 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕August Industrial +5.2% Outruns Retail +0.4% and FAI -7.2%, as Pre-Sale Reform and Vanke 2027 USD Rout at 53c Reset Property — Pinglu Canal, BOCHK Cross-Border Rails Go Live

9 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕UK 30Y Nears 6% as Post-Truss Long-Duration Cut Fails, While Japan Oil Bill +58.7% Deepens Trade Drag and ¥2.886T 'Mrs. Watanabe' Shorts Pile In - BoJ-Fed Hike Week Squeezes DM Long End

10 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Global Yields Hit 2008 Highs, Pin Sterling at One-Month Lows and JPY at 155.43 as ECB/BoE Hike Bets Outrun Officials' Caution — UK CPI Tests the Gap

9 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Traffic Falls to Four Vessels as Saudi East-West Pipeline Stays Shut, Forcing ~20Mb Spot Pivot Through Oman; VLCC Tops $1M/Day, WTI Past $106, Fed Priced 95% for 25bp - Houthi Capture of Mocha and Perim Puts Bab el-Mandeb in Play

8 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Yanbu Halts Loading After East-West Pipeline Knockout; WTI to $105.83, VLCC to Asia $44.8M, Hormuz '50% Back' - Two Seafarers Missing, IRGC Says Third US Drone Down

12 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Memory 5-7x, Power 161GW, and a Sub-$20M Model Cracks the Top-14: AI Demand Pinches Three Supply Sides as Jefferies Flags the Capex Payback - Cost Curve Splits

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕AI Safety Chorus Swells as TSMC Brands Models 'Three-Year-Old Superman,' Anthropic's Slowdown Call Meets Trump-Huang 'Completely Aligned' Line - No-Pause Coalition Intact

8 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕'Dovish Hike' Locks In 25bp at ~95% as Citi, Goldman Frame 'No-Signal' Path — BNP Sees Six, Warsh Press Conference Is the Real Trigger

9 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Bank Consensus Flips Hawkish on September Fed: Wells Fargo Cuts S&P 500 to 7,700, UBS Holds $1.2T AI Capex, 10Y UST at 4.96% — Defensive Hike or Cycle Restart?

10 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Holds $4,300 Against a 5.4% 30Y and an 86% Priced Hike; Silver Adds 2%+ on Credibility Bid - Colombo's $5,000 Hinges on a Hold

10 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕COMEX Gold Settles at $4333.4 as 92-93% Hike Odds and 5% 10Y Yield Stack Against $107 Oil Bids — Silver Inverts to $64.19, Palladium Adds 1% to $1319

9 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Lithium Cracks 4% to 124,320 Yuan/Ton on Carbonate Rout; Nickel Drops 3% After Indonesia Halves 1.2% Ore Cost; Copper Holds Into Fed - Glencore Faces $2B Singapore Suit

6 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕AI-Safety Warning Cracks Compute Metals as 10Y Tops 5% and Fed September Odds Climb >90%; DRC's 1.72Mt H1 Record and Congo Task Force Counter; Tariff Trade Still Unwinding

8 source channels · 4 min read

09 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-15

16 digests · 5512 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕10-Year Pierces 5% With ~92% September Hike Priced, Brent Near $107, Chips Shed ~$500B — Bessent Testifies at 22:00 Into Warsh's FOMC

15 source channels · 6 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Hike Priced at 84-90% Meets a Long-End Revolt: 10Y Cracks 5%, 30Y Hits ~5.40% as $40T Debt and the Hormuz Premium Test Warsh

8 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕August Data Splits: IVA Reaccelerates to 5.2% with High-Tech at 16.7% and PPI +0.4% MoM, Yet Retail Slows to 0.4% and Social Financing Slips to 7.2% — September Becomes the Real Transmission Test

8 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕5B Yuan Poly CB Reopens Property Refinancing, Tier-1 Resale Jumps 9-27%, Yet August TSF Misses at 1.66T and RMB Drifts 6-15 Pips Softer - Consumption Pivot vs Cooling Credit

8 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Long-End Blowout Tests ECB Credibility: German 30Y at 3.92%, French 30Y at 5.18% as ZEW Cracks and Spain CPI Hits 4.3% — BOJ Friday Verdict, Lagarde Exit Looms

9 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Hawkish Pricing Lifts UK 2Y to 4.918% as Markets Embed Five BoE and Four ECB Hikes by End-2027, Yet Citadel Says Energy-Driven Slowdown Will Cap European Yields — BoJ September 18 Decides Next

8 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Volumes Halve to ~8mb/d as Saudi East-West Pipeline Loses 2.5-5mb/d; WTI Holds $102, BofA Tags $150 Brent - Iran Rejects Trump's Deal Talk as Houthis Seize Red Sea Islands

12 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Trims 4% of Global Supply as VLCC Rates Top $1M/Day and Brent Jumps 4% to $109.18 - US-Iran Narratives Split on Hormuz Tanker Cause, Trump Demands 'Escort Compensation'

8 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕AI Capex Spreads Beyond Hyperscalers: UBS Lifts S&P 500 to 8,100 by 2026, Gold to $5,000 — Even as CoreWeave Drops 1% Pre-Market on Slowdown Tag

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Trump Calls AI Fears a 'Hoax' on Huang Call as Gas Turbines Sell Out to 2030, OpenAI Slides IPO to 2027 at $852B Mark, Kioxia Eyes $10B US ADR - Denial Meets Bottleneck

9 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕S&P 2026 Targets Diverge 7700-8100 as Fed Hike Priced and 10Y Breaks 5%; AI Trade Cracks 45% Even as UBS Sees Broadening - Diffusion vs Long-End Stress

8 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Bond Vigilantes Force the Fed's Hand: September Hike Odds Hit 87-90% as 10Y Tops 5% and 30Y Hits a 2007 High, Yet BofA's Top Bear Lifts S&P 500 to 7,400 — Wednesday Dot Plot Decides

9 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Slides Through $4,300 on 10Y Above 5% and Oil-Led Hike Bets — Silver -1%, India Still Takes $2.3B in August

10 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Cracks $4,300 on 88% September Hike Odds and Near-5% Yields — August's Record $18B ETF Inflow Is the Contradiction

7 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Indonesian Drought Caps Excelsior at 30% as Bernstein Cuts Long-Term Nickel to $19,000/t, While Copper Holds $14,000 on LME Contango — Supply Hit vs. Forecast Reset

8 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Copper Crashes 3% to $6.29/lb on COMEX and LME 3-Month Under $14,000 While US War Department Commits $450M to Tungsten and DOE Funds Four Mine-of-Future Sites - Cyclical Liquidation vs Strategic-Metals Securitization

6 source channels · 3 min read

10 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-14

15 digests · 4979 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Hike Odds Top 85% for September 16 to 3.75%-4.00% as 86 of 101 Economists Concur; Brent Jumps 3%+ on a Saudi Pipeline Halt and the 30Y Sits at 5.362% - Sell-Side Paths Now Span One to Six Hikes

11 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕September Hike Locked at 85-90% on 3.4% August CPI, 10Y Nears 5% on +57bp YTD Move; Warsh Caught Between Preventive Tightening and Trump's No-Win

9 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Households Shed 1.03T in Loans, Park 6.99T in Deposits; Wealth Managers Push 1.98T Into Equity Products as August Auto Retail Drops 23% — Savings Glut vs Spending Drought

9 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕ECB Lifts to 2.50% as US PPI Hits 5.4% and 30Y Mortgage at 6.85% One-Year High; PBOC Front-Loads ¥60bn/Day into China's Completed-Home-Sales Reset - Funding Cost vs Liquidity Cushion

7 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕BoJ Set to Lift to 1.25% (31-Year High) as Bessent Tests Ueda; UK 30Y Touches 5.9506% Since March 1998, ECB Hawks Re-Engage on Gas

11 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕BoJ Priced for 1.25% With 10Y JGB at 2.99% and Yen at 153, But M2 Near 2% Says Tightening Is Already Binding - Japan, US, UK Decide in Seven Days

6 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Three Corridors Under Simultaneous Squeeze: Hormuz Talks Slips, Saudi Pipeline Shuts, Brent Tops $108 — Europe Gas at Dec 2022 High, US Drone Reportedly Downed

14 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Saudi Pipeline Hit, Hormuz Talks Scrapped: WTI/Brent +3%, European Gas +3.8% — No New Omani Date, Trump Floats Post-War 'Take' of Iranian Oil

6 source channels · 3 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕'Decel Chorus' Hammers Chips and Optics, Intel -5%+, Corning/Coherent -6%, Zhipu Slides ~10% - Yet Zhipu Pitches a ~$5B Raise Into the Rout

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Vera Rubin and 800VDC Open a New AIDC Power Cycle as Anthropic Books a Second Profitable Quarter on $11.5B Q2 Revenue - Yet a CEO Triumvirate Calls to Brake and Asian Capex Indices Brace for Volatility

12 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Pre-FOMC Repricing Locks In ~90% Odds for a 25bp Hike; One-and-Done Caps the Path as Diesel, 30Y and AI-Bubble Warnings Stack — Buy the News, or Buy the Dip?

7 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕September Hike Priced at 87-90% as August CPI Lands In Line; A-Shares Brace for the Day-After, BSE Quality Tilt, and the Vera Rubin Power Cycle - Oil Caps the Ceiling

7 source channels · 6 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Cracks $4,320, Silver Tumbles 3% on ~90% September Hike Odds, Yet $4,300 Anchors the Structural Bid — Fed Verdict Decides

12 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Gaps Down to $4,330 on Rate-Hike Consensus as Silver Slides 1% to $63.8 — Tianfeng Sees More Pain While a 'Word' in Next Week's Fed Verdict Looms

2 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Fed September Hike Bets Climb to ~86% on Sticky Core CPI and Oil Surge, LME Copper Below $14,100 and SHFE Tin 3.81% — Tariff Premium Unwinds but SHFE Stocks Hit Two-Year Low

5 source channels · 5 min read