DAILY LOGBOOK

Daily archive

Browse daily archives by date across 8 signal desks, with each digest keeping its own source trail.

01 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-03

16 digests · 3107 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕September Hike Odds Climb from 37% to 67% as Diesel Tops $5.68; 30-Year Holds 5% Despite Bessent Buyback - Warsh Hawk vs Sheets Skepticism, NFP Friday Decides

9 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕30Y Holds 5.26% as Iran War and Tariffs Push Hike Odds to 60-69%, While ADP Prints 37K and Beige Book Splits — Fed Hawks Circle the Sept 15-16 Meeting

13 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Planning Push Meets Demand Softness: Four 15th Five-Year Plans Drop as August Auto Retail Slides 19% YoY and Shenzhen Used-Home Filings Reset Below 5,000

10 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕CNH Anchors at 6.72 as PBoC Vows 'Accommodative' at G20, Yet Property Drag Caps Q2 Demand — DRG 3.0 Reshapes Hospital Pay, Electronics Output +15.4% Carries the Open

11 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Japan 30Y Auction Prints 3.79x Cover as Yen Surge Stokes Intervention Talk, G7 Long Ends Sit at Multi-Decade Highs - BoJ's 25bp September Hike Fully Priced Into a 10Y at 3%

11 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Intervention Whispers Lift JPY 1.2% While Bond Vigilantes Roar Back: Japan 30Y at 30-Year High, UK Gilts Since 1998, BOC Hawks at 2.25% — Hike Path or Yield Path

14 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Transit Craters to 6 Ships as LNG Doubles Pre-War and Saudi Exports Hit 9-Year Low, Yet Trump Calls Strikes 'Short-Lived' - Logistics vs Political Frame Diverge

9 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕US Blockade Redirects 86 Vessels, Iran Retaliates Against Saudi Tanker Sadr; Hormuz Still Moves 17M Barrels, Oil at 5-Week High - Reopening Conditional on US Concessions

13 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕HPE Beats on $12.2B but Names Memory the Bottleneck; 15 GW Power Gap and $3.1T Off-Balance Sheet Now Cap the $1.2T AI Buildout — Astra Under Government Review

6 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Broadcom Lifts FY26 AI Guide to $58B (+186%) and Targets $115B in 2027 on Meta 3GW and Anthropic XPU Wins — Q4 Gross Margin Drops to 73% from 78% as $1.4B Capex Bites

7 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕BofA Hangs September on CPI at ~70% with August NFP Forecast at Just +40k, CITIC Holds Pause, Tanious Says Hike 'Doesn't Make Sense' — Warsh Hawks the Long End via Term Premium, El Niño Carves Peru Fishmeal and Panama Canal as 2026's First Channels

8 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕5% Yield Test, 69% September Hike Odds, and a $9B vs $163B Asymmetry — The Long End Forces the Tape Into the Weakest Month

11 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold V-Recovers to $4435 on 38K ADP Miss, Silver Tracks +1% to $65.85 — Yet a 40.23t SLV Outflow Challenges the Bid

11 source channels · 2 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Rebounds 1%+ as Soft ADP (38K) and Dollar-Yield Pullback Cool Fed-Hike Trade, But BoC Hold and 86-Ton Dutch London Move Cap the Bid — Silver's 55% Slide Worsens

6 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Trump's 'Brief' Iran Strikes Lift Base Metals as 160+ US Firms Can't Rule Out Sanctioned Smelters and Chengtun Closes a 709M Yuan Tibet Lead-Zinc-Silver Deal - Relief Trade vs Supply-Chain Audit

5 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕LME Aluminum Pushes to $3,291 Since Aug 13 as Yinman Mining Restarts, Yet Japanese Q4 Premiums Plunge 18-22% - Futures vs Physical Demand Divergence

5 source channels · 2 min read

02 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-02

16 digests · 3032 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Oil Shock Reignites the Hike Trade: 10Y at 4.81% Tests 5%, 30Y Back to Pre-Buyback Levels, Diesel Crack at Record $106, 72% Priced - But Jobs Cooling and AI-Led Disinflation Pull the Other Way

9 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Iran Air Strikes Reflate the Curve: 10Y Touches 4.8%, 30Y 5.236%, Mortgage Rates Highest Since June 2025, Hike Odds 68-77% — 'Inflation-First' Fed Sets the September Tone

11 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕PBOC Splits the Curve: 50B Long-End Bond Buying vs 641.5B Short-End Drain as 50Y Reopens at 2.52% — Hidden Debt Tops 2.7T, Second-Hand Housing +10.6%

11 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Real Estate Credit Rewires to Project Basis as US 30Y Tests 5.28% and Shanghai Crude Jumps 7% to 682 Yuan — BOC and CCB Hit Records, Developers Lag

7 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕BOJ's Ueda Locks In September Hike as JGB 30Y Hits 4.197% and Nikkei Drops 1,700 Pts; RBNZ Hikes 25bp, ECB Doubles Down, Yen Breaks 160 Again

12 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕ECB September Hike Fully Priced as German 10Y Hits 3.36% 15-Year High, Yet Core CPI Drops to 2.4% — Iran Rial Breaks 2M/USD, Bessent Floats Weekly Sanctions

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Tanker Attack Kills Two Crew as IRGC Claims Three-Base Strike; Brent Holds Near $95, Yet Wright's 17mb/d Print Disputes Kpler's Five-Vessel Trace

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕US Strikes IRGC After Hormuz Shipping Attacks; Brent Clears $92, Diesel Spread Breaks $100 as Iran Fires Heavy Missiles at Jordan Marine Camp — Two Tankers Hit, Bypass Plan Pitched

7 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Anthropic's Mythos 5.1 Gates, Musk Teases 2.1T Grok 4.7, Altman Floats IPO Pause on RSI — A 17.2% GPU Margin, a $13B Nvidia-Hugging Face Bid and a 10,000-Unit Microduck Stress the Stack

9 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Astra Crosses 'Critical' Cyber, Anthropic Cuts Cache Reads 75%, California Locks Data-Center Power — Frontier Race Hits an Infrastructure Wall

10 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕HSBC Re-Frames the 1997 Parallel: Asia's Real Risk Is AI Demand Fragility, Not Financial - A-Share H1 Profits +16.8% vs 9月 Fed Hike Reflating on US-Iran Strikes

9 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Wall Street's Caution Cluster Widens: Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Flip, Citadel Tags September a 'Tactical Downside Window' - Warsh PCE Diffusion Still 48%

13 source channels · 6 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Cracks $4,300 as Bond Selloff and Iran-Linked Oil Spike Re-Anchor Hike Bets; $4,315 Is the Line Between 'Exhausted Selling' and 'Cascading Stop-Outs' — Silver Drops 5%

10 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Loses $4,400 and Silver Cracks $65 as September Hike Odds Climb to 66-70% on Warsh-Led Oil-Yield Selloff — WGC's $4,215 Pullback Looms

8 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Copper Drops a Second Day at $14,125/t as Oil-Led Macro Worry Returns; Q4 Japan Aluminum Premium Seeks $325/t, -18% — GFEX Silicon Complex Splits

3 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕International Copper Drops 1.07%, Tin Tumbles 1.61% in SHFE Night Sell-Off — Alumina the Lone +1.30% Outlier, India-Zambia Critical-Minerals Talks Revived, Buyers Pin Aluminum Alloy at $3,050

5 source channels · 2 min read

03 · LOG ENTRY

2026-09-01

11 digests · 3114 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Warsh's Jackson Hole Pivot and $90+ Brent Drive 10Y to 4.78% and 30Y to 5.27% — September Hike Repriced to 57-70% Against a Softening Data Tape

8 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Warsh's Jackson Hole Pivot Lifts September Hike Odds Past 60% and 30yr Mortgage to 6.87% as 10-Year Eyes Breakout — Trump Calls Hikes 'Absurd' but Dollar Drops 0.9% on Bessent Buyback

10 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕30Y Futures +0.30% on PBOC 'Drain-Long, Expand-Short' Tilt; Solar Tops Coal 1,286 vs 1,285 GW; Canada Tire Probe Caps Session

8 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕PMI Reclaims Expansion, CNH Closes August +0.50% Through Warsh Hawkish Shock; State Council Backs Pipe Networks, Tax Law, 2030 60T Retail Goal, 40-Year Mortgage Still Undelivered - Recovery Print vs Fed Sept Decision

9 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Japan 10Y Hits 3% First Time Since 1996 and Global Yield Index Tops 2008 High — Bessent's Public BoJ-Hike Push Meets a Dollar Already Down 5 of 8 Months

10 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕German 2.9% CPI Print Underpins ECB September Hike, as France-UK Bond Selloff and Saudi $8bn Loan Shop Flag Fiscal Stress — India +7.8%, Qatar -7%

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Three Projectiles Hit Bahri VLCC Exiting Hormuz; Transits Drop to ~5 vs 14-Average, Brent Past $90 — Trump Vows Retaliation, Iranian Lawmaker Demands Preemptive US Strikes

7 source channels · 3 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕AI Compute Demand Still Sprints, Equity Tape Already Rotates: Korea Chip Exports +209% to $46.65B, Samsung Locks 70% of Memory to 2031 LTAs, and IGV Adds 12.9% in August vs SOXX's -8.6% — Zhipu Sets $2.4B FY ARR Target on +101% API Pricing

9 source channels · 7 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Goldman Lifts Alibaba's 2030 Cloud Target to $100B and UBS Re-Rates A-Shares as BofA's 3% Annualized S&P 500 Loss and a Kaplan-Inclined Fed Frame the Asia Open

9 source channels · 6 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Silver Cracks $65 to $64.52 Lowest Since Aug 19; Gold Off 1.85% to $4366 on 60%+ Fed Hike Bets - Warsh Jackson Hole Repricing

11 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Zinc Tops Four-Year High on Supply Squeeze, Lithium Reverses 2% as Anhui Logs Super-Large Copper-Gold Find - AI Copper Foil Demand +260% YoY

5 source channels · 2 min read

04 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-31

15 digests · 2731 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Warsh's Jackson Hole Pivot Sends September Hike Odds to 57-60% and the 2Y to 4.36% — Yet Bessent's Months of Bond Intervention Set Up an Open Treasury-Fed Collision

8 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Warsh's Jackson Hole Doctrine Locks the Fed in a 'No-Win' Box: 2Y Lifts, Bitcoin Anchors Near $78K, Gulf Stocks Slide - August Jobs and G20 in Asheville Test the Hawk

7 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕August Manufacturing PMI Climbs to 49.8 with Both Sides in Expansion, 7M SOE Profits Up 0.6% on 2.4% Revenue Drop, While US Trade Friction Tops Global for 7th Month — 30Y Future Bid, 15B Yuan Land Deal Frame the Read

8 source channels · 6 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Three-Document Property Package Locks Sealed-Top Presales and 40-Year Mortgages; Big-Five NIMs Hold 1.23-1.37% on Dense 3-Year Time-Deposit Maturities — Developer Cash-Cycle Reset vs Liability-Cost Fade

6 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕German 30Y 3.7924% Since 2011, French 10Y 4.1503% From 2008 Highs as G7 War Bill Tops $16bn; Yen Back at 160 - Bessent Declines Fresh Joint Bid

10 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕ECB Sounds Alarm on US Treasury's Unannounced Euro Sell and Swap-Line Risk; EU Gas at 63% (13-Year Low) and BoK Flags Chip Inflation — Coordination vs. Survival

7 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕US Hits Larak Launchers, Iran Retaliates at Jordan and UAE Bases; Brent Tops $90.74 (+3%), WTI Past $86, Hormuz Monitored Transits at 5/Day — Strait in Open Combat

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕U.S. Hits Two Larak Launchers After Tanker Struck Near Khasab, IRGC Vows 'Response and Punishment' — 83 Vessels Redirected, Mining Threat Floated, Pentagon Chiefs File 'Non-Concur' on Extension

9 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕1M-Unit Domestic AI Chip Gap Locks Orders to 2029; Compute Capex Spikes (Paradigm ¥2.24B, Horizon +32.9%, China Mobile ¥700M+); AI Long-Form Anime Validates Yuewen's ¥430M Short-Drama Math - Silicon Photonics vs Supply Ceiling

8 source channels · 7 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕OpenAI Severs Cursor Over Musk as Nvidia Pre-Earnings Jitter, TSMC's 10-15% Hike, and a $160B Paper-Gain Reckoning Converge - Trust, Pricing Power, and Earnings Optics in One Tape

12 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕China 'Golden Autumn' Pressed with CSI 300 Base at 5,200 vs. 4,000 Bear; Warsh Priced at ~57% September Hike Odds, Apollo Says 2027 Yields Fall Either Way as AI Replaces Inflation Narrative

8 source channels · 7 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Long-End UST Pressure Caps Risk Appetite Even as NVIDIA Data-Center Doubles to $89B, HK Long-Term Foreign Capital Nears HKD 100B Since June, BSE Posts 83% Profit Coverage - Beta to Earnings

4 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Warsh Repricing Halts Gold's Three-Week Run; Silver Tags $67; SGE Au99.99 -3.32% — Profit-Taking vs Debasement Floor

7 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Silver Pinned Below $72 by Fed Hike Fears, While Gold's 'Orderly' Rally Pulls Exotic-Option Bulls and $79M of Korean Retail Demand - Two Metals, Two Tapes

3 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Nickel-Slag 'Black Mountain' Presses NPI Leaders as Lithium Destocking Hits 9 Straight Weeks and H1 Non-Ferrous Profit Jumps 94% — Waste Drag vs. Demand Recovery

5 source channels · 3 min read

05 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-30

13 digests · 1265 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Warsh's Hawkish Jackson Hole Debut Lifts September Hike Odds to 57% as Bessent's Long-End 'Twist' Splits Treasury From Fed - August Payrolls Decide

6 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Warsh's Jackson Hole Hawkishness Spikes Hike Odds and Puts Fed on Collision Course With Trump — Long End Holds the Line as Bessent's $14B Buyback Is Branded Futile

6 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕CCB Begins 40-Year Mortgage Extensions, Anhui Profits +63.5%, NFRA Unveils 'Five Arrows' Package — Yet Top-1000 Bank Profit Share at Just 22%

11 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Pre-Sale Curbs and a 1pp SME Subsidy Bookend the K-Shaped H2 as Q2 GDP Slips to 4.3% and Debt Service Tops 25% of Budget: Fiscal Lever Under Test

5 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕G7 Debt Bill Climbs by Tens of Billions as Yields Bite; Europe Central Bankers Head Home Unsettled, Korea Cancels G20 Trip at the Gate - Coordination Premium Cracks

9 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Hormuz Transits Down >90% and Oil at ~$88 Force IMF to Lift 2026 Global Inflation to 4.7% — UK Shelves Green Levies, Weighs Bank, Oil Windfall Taxes

4 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Credibility War: CENTCOM Clears Mines, Iran Calls Strait 'Completely Closed,' Tanker 'ELLIE' U-Turns, Tehran Brands Bessent's 130mb Throughput Claim as 'Lies'

2 source channels · 3 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Iran Declares Hormuz 'Completely Closed' as Gulf Oil Recovers Only to ~40% of Pre-War; Brent ~$88 Holds a 20% Premium, IMF Tags 2026 Inflation at 4.7% — Permits, Not Pipelines, Are the Choke Point

6 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕15GW of 2027 AI Silicon Stays Dark: Musk Names the Grid Bottleneck as 沐曦 Turns 612M Yuan Profit, 天数智芯 Margins Halve to 17.2% — Silicon Outruns the Wires

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Anthropic Caught in a Pincer: Sony-Warner 'Brazen' Copyright Suit Meets a $45B Nscale Capacity Lease, While OpenAI 'Plotting' Transcripts and a 2.45M-PFLOPS China Build Reset the AI Risk Map - Liability Creep vs Compute Hoarding

5 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Hawkish Warsh at Jackson Hole Reignites AI Debt-Bubble Risk, Goldman Doubles 2027 Diesel Crack to $63/bbl on Refining Gap - A-Shares Rotate to Coal, Gold, Defensives amid K-Shaped Spread

6 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Warsh Echoes Powell-2022 as Barclays and SocGen Back Sep+Dec Hikes; DWS Says Long Yields Are a Fiscal Story, Not an Inflation One

4 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Jackson Hole Hawkishness and a Firmer Dollar Push Gold Past the 30% Retracement — Decline 'Mostly Done' per One Flash, but the Floated Reversal Factor Is Unnamed

2 source channels · 2 min read

06 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-29

14 digests · 1801 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Warsh's Jackson Hole — Hawkishest Since 2009 — Lifts September Hike Odds to ~60%, 2Y +10bp, Gold Under $4,500; BoK Hikes, ECB Fully Priced - Yet Trump Demands Cuts

8 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut Lifts September Hike to 50-60%, Sends 5Y to 4.48% and Flattens 2s30s 9bp — A 79k Payroll Revision and Cooling Housing Test the New Anchor

12 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Joint Notices Reset Property to Ready-Built Sales, Mortgages to 40 Years as Fiscal Spend Trails at +1.3% Y/Y; SOE Budget Income Jumps 39.8% - Supply Reset vs. Funding Drag

10 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Warsh's Jackson Hole Hawkish Debut Sinks Gold Below $4,530 and Silver Under $68, Slides Long-Yields as Equities Shrug - ECB's Tolzmann Backs September Hike

8 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕ECB September Hike Fully Priced (100%, 10Y Bund 3.27%) as Bailey Holds the BOE Line to an Ignoring Market — Cross-Atlantic Divergence

6 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz at Six Months: 82 Vessels Redirected, 130M Barrels Rerouted in 14 Days, Yet CENTCOM Says 'Open' as Iran Holds Crude at Zero and IRGC Reasserts Full Control

5 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Hormuz 'Reopened' With 30 Tankers/Night, Says US; Iran's IRGC Calls It 'Lies' and Demands Coordination on Every Transit - Pezeshkian Floats 4-Point Deal, Tanker Rates Near $650K/Day

12 source channels · 3 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Nvidia Pays $12.9B for Hugging Face, Validating a 1000x Durant Angel Bet; Barclays Maps 35-45% Cloud Capture as OpenAI-Cursor Split and Bond Skepticism Test the AI Capex Story

11 source channels · 6 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Anthropic Wins Pentagon Ban Case as $3.4B of AI Debt Prints Overnight — $2.4B Blue Owl/IREN for Nvidia Chips, $1B Lambda, JPM Reads Yields as an AI Productivity Bet

11 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Warsh's Jackson Hole Re-Credentials the Hawk as A-Share September Playbooks Cluster Constructive on 9-of-16 Historical Wins — Hormuz Capex Freeze Tests the Equipment Channel Behind Unitree's 54x 2027E PS

5 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Three Global Banks Now Price September AND December Hikes After Warsh; Largest US Equity Outflow Since March Hits Ahead of Nvidia Week - Inflation Print Decides

8 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Sells Off 2.95% Through $4,500 and the 200-DMA on Warsh's Hawkish Jackson Hole Debut - Silver Tracks 3% Lower at $67.09, Yet Half of Wall Street Stays Bullish

6 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Cracks $4,500 to a $4,463 Low as Warsh Revives the September Hike Trade; Silver Sinks 4% to $66.38 — Long Liquidation Meets the $40T Bull Case

8 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Alumina Lifts the SHFE Complex 2.24% Overnight, Codelco Posts 11% H1 Output Drop as Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Peru Sign a Critical-Minerals Pact

7 source channels · 3 min read

07 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-28

16 digests · 3220 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Five Hawks Pre-empt Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut as 10Y Bund Hits 15-Year High and ~40% September Hike Holds — Will the Chair, or Bessent, Steer the Long End?

10 source channels · 5 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Bessent Doubles Long-Duration Buybacks to Bend 19-Year-High Yields Into Warsh's Jackson Hole Independence Test - 57% Dollar Bullish Hedge, Hammack Says 'Time to Act'

10 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕Three-Ministry Property Reset Closes the Pre-Sale Loophole — BOC Lifts H1 NIM 1bp to 1.27%, Yet US Bank-Sanction Threat on Iran Ties Reopens an External Front

8 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕IC Profits +18.5x as Petrochemical Chain Flips to -6.5%: 17.6% Industrial Growth Splits K-Sharp — PBOC's 6-Day Overnight Reverse Repo and 20.8T Fiscal Spend Frame 'Timely' Incremental Window

9 source channels · 6 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕ECB September Hike 'All But Nailed On' as Spain CPI Doubles 2% Target and Kazaks Hardens; BoJ Closes In with Tokyo Core at 1.8% and ~82% Priced — G20 Yen Test Looms

12 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕France Inverts Italy in 10Y Bond Risk as BoK Lifts to 3% on AI Inflation and BoJ Snubs Jackson Hole — Fiscal Stress Meets Diminished Coordination

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz 'Mine-Free' vs Five-Ship Days: Kalibaf Vows 'All or Nothing' as Qatar Extends LNG Force Majeure a Second Month — Asian Spot Above $23

12 source channels · 5 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Rezaei's Red Lines vs 'No Negotiations': Hormuz Reopening Tied to Lebanon/Gaza, Tanker Hit, 75% Flow Recovery Meets WSJ 'Where Is the Oil?' Doubt — Brent Off 6.3% on Week

14 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Anthropic's $130B IPO Joins TrendForce's $710B NVL72 Forecast as SoftBank Lines Up $10B Refi - Pimco Says Bond Market 'Can't Digest' AI Debt

8 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕FY28 Beat Sends NVIDIA +6% and Lifts the AI Bid, Yet Anthropic's $10B Meta Tab, 50MW Microsoft Build, and 'Carolina Principles' Reset the Capex Map - Tailwind vs. Concentration

9 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Chinese Consumer and Storage Reign on Research Day: Anta Top-Picked at HK$110, Xiangnong Posts 22x H1 Profit Growth — Jackson Hole Tightrope Tests Bessent's 'Bluff'

9 source channels · 6 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Street-Low S&P 500 Call Holds as Citrini's 'Treasury-Fed Accord' Pitches 30Y Outperformance — Warsh's Jackson Hole Decides

6 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Silver Pierces $70 as Gold Reclaims $4,600 — UBS Flags Regime Shift From 'Rates Trade' to 'Debasement Trade', Cuts 2026 Target to $4,675

10 source channels · 2 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Tests $4,600 on 203k Claims as 0.17% Portfolio Share Caps Real Liquidity — 15% August Rally Flashes Overbought

4 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Lithium Futures +4% to ¥158,460 Even as GFEX Warrants Add 634 Lots; Panasonic Hikes CCL, Indonesian Chinese-Owned Nickel Smelters Mull Coordinated Cuts — DR Congo Truce Opens Rubaya Coltan, Yet Chinese Supply Chains Still Dominate

4 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Copper Hits Record, ETF Up ~20% in August, Shanghai Zinc Slides 1.02% — LME Supply Tightness vs Andes Cross-Border Revival

7 source channels · 2 min read

08 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-27

16 digests · 3330 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Hot 3.7% PCE Lifts Hike Odds to 40% as Bessent's 'Twist' Buyback Fails the 10Y at 4.66% — Warsh's Jackson Hole First Take Decides

11 source channels · 3 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Headline PCE Lifts September Hike Odds to ~42% as Core Prints In-Line; 10Y +2bps, Iran War and Canada Tariff Pulse Keep Yields Bid - Sticky Print vs Warsh and Nvidia

14 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕MOFCOM Hardens 7.5% Tariff Line; PBOC Drains 70B at 1.62%; 2025 New Drivers +12.5%, EV Exports +73.1% - Open Conflict, Tight Cash, Real Re-Rating

8 source channels · 3 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia's $96.2B Beat and $108B Q3 Guide Meet a 71-72% Margin Trough; Customer Book Doubles to $279B as Supply — Not Demand — Caps the FY28 Frame

6 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕BOK Delivers Second 25bp Hike to 3% on 6-1 Vote With 2026 GDP Lifted to 3.3% as BoJ's Himino Floats Earlier Moves and France's 10Y Flips Over Italy's

13 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Schnabel Demands More ECB Hikes as Global Yields Reprice in Lockstep, Bessent's $83bn Plan Calms QE Fears - BoE Digital Mandate, Dutch Gas Miss Reset the Cross-Border Map

9 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Tanker Hit in Hormuz as Transits Edge to 10 Vessels; European LNG Hits 3-Year High at $22.83/mmBtu, Iran Adds Insurers to Blacklist - Market 'Underestimates' a Multi-Year Standoff

8 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Hormuz Framework Hopes Lift Crude Off Lows Only for Iran to Call Them Unfinished: Brent Rebounds 2% to $87.58, HAANA Detained, 'No Timeline' on Talks

13 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Nvidia's 70% FY28 Frame, Explicitly Supply-Limited, Reignites AI Capex - Yardeni Flags Fatigue, a16z Says the Market 'Isn't Bullish Enough'

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia's $96.2B Print (+106% YoY) Re-Anchors the 'Central Bank of AI' as 2M More AWS GPUs and a 25% AI-Lab Mix Stack Up — $500B+ Financing Piles and a 90%-Cheaper Qwen Test Capex Faith

9 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕NVIDIA's $96.2B Q2 Beat and 70% 2027 Guide Lift Goldman, JPMorgan, Needham Targets to $300-$320; Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut Reframes the Long End - Gold $4,700, Brent $90 Cap the Risk-On Bid

9 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia's 7-Session Rout Erases $151B as Wolfe Tells Fed to 'Credibly' Skip — Citadel Flags a One-Sided Long-Bond Short as Sovereign Yields Spike

9 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕PCE-Firmed Dollar Rejects Gold at $4,700, But Debasement Bid Reclaims $4,640; Silver +2% to $69.50, Warsh Decides Next

8 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Pierces $4,600 as PCE Revives September Hike Bets, Dollar and Yields Firm Into Warsh and Jackson Hole - Silver Tracks Lower, Miners Sell Off, Yet $5,000 Year-End Holds

6 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Chalco's 67.9% H1 Profit Jump Lifts Aluminum, Yet Copper Drifts to $14,219 on a Stronger Dollar and Battery-Grade Lithium Eases 100 Yuan/Ton - Earnings Momentum vs. Tightening Financial Conditions

6 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Europe Pulls First Mexican Diesel in 7 Years at $4.26 Settle, EIA Draw Beats Forecast; Singapore Raids Iron Ore Trader, US-Brazil Critical-Minerals Silence Stays — Cross-Commodity Squeeze Stacks

7 source channels · 3 min read

09 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-26

16 digests · 3184 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Warsh's Honeymoon Ends: 30Y at Pre-2008 Highs, Four Regional Banks Sought July Hike, 'Bessent Put' Caps the Long End - Fed vs Treasury Diverges Into Jackson Hole

11 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Peace-Deal Hopes Pull 2Y Auction to 4.204% and 30Y to 5.19%, Yet Collins Says 'Tighten Soon' as Turbu-lens Maxes and Gold Tops $4,700 — Front-End Relief vs Long-End Skepticism

12 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕K-Shaped July Hardens: PMI 49.2 vs High-Tech 53.3, Auto Retail -22%, RMB 6.7051 Squeezes 677 Firms — MIIT 15th FYP Bets on 6G, Aerospace and a Digital-ID Battery Regime

9 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Mortgage Subsidies Spread to 20+ Cities as Shanghai's First 'Hu Ba Tiao' Weekend Logs a 50-Minute Sellout at 270% Subscription and Private Buyers Re-Enter Land Auctions — While 10Y CGB Bounces From Historic 1.67% Low

9 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Schnabel Demands Further Hikes as Gas Becomes the 'Biggest Concern' for Euro Debt — Korea Split 16-15, JGB 2Y-40Y Flattens, UK CBI Sales Plunge to -48

11 source channels · 3 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕ECB Lines Up September Hike to 2.50% but Refuses to Signal More; Bunds Rally 5bp as Germany Lifts Q2 GDP and IFO Beats - Canada Fires C$20B Retaliation

10 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Iran-Oman Hormuz Corridor Talks Drag WTI to $80.37 and Brent Off ~9% in Five Days - Yet Iran's Deputy FM Holds the Strait on a Preemptive Trigger

13 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕Hormuz Main TSS Lane Reopens After US Mine Sweep, 500+ Ships Cleared Southern Route in 30 Days, Yet Monday Saw One Bulker — the Lowest Since May 7 — as Iran Vows Retaliation Alongside the Oman Corridor Deal

11 source channels · 4 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕MiniMax Revenue +283%, SenseTime Posts First ¥617M IFRS Profit, SemiAnalysis Sees OpenAI-Anthropic Compute Oligopoly by 2028 - JPMorgan Calls Alibaba's $19B Repricing Overdone, Nvidia Tonight Decides

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia's Wednesday Print Becomes the Single Test for $3.1T of Off-Balance-Sheet Pledges, Anthropic's $30T TAM Pitch, and OpenAI's GB300-Beating Jalapeño — Capex, Compute and IPO Converge

9 source channels · 4 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕AI Capex Repricing Spreads to Credit as BoJ Pulls Hike to September and Citadel Flips Long-Bond Bullish — Semi 24m Fwd P/E Compresses to ~15x, JPY Tests 160, Jackson Hole Decides

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕AI Off-Balance-Sheet Pledges Top $3.1T as Term Premium Pins 30Y at 5.34% — UBS Vulnerability Gauge Hits 1.0, BofA Frames the Build-Out 'Too Big to Fail'

7 source channels · 5 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Gold Holds $4,650 After $4,700 Test; Profit-Taking Meets Fiscal Anxiety — PCE and Warsh at Jackson Hole Reset the Tape

7 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Spot Gold Cedes $4,700, Slips 0.97% to $4,606.54 as Silver Drops 2.16% on Profit-Taking — Yet $22.2B Decade-High Net Longs and Natixis's $5,000 Target Hold the Bid

5 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Carbonate Off 2,750 yuan/t as Warrants Climb 1,160 Lots, Zimbabwe Quota +300,000 t, and CATL Jianxiawo Restart Stalls — Copper Extends Record High on Tight Near-Term Supply

7 source channels · 2 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕COMEX and LME Copper Close at Records on Tariff-Driven Inventory Reallocation, No Global Shortage Required — CME Adds US Zinc Contract for Regional Pricing

6 source channels · 4 min read

10 · LOG ENTRY

2026-08-25

16 digests · 3256 records indexed

Fed & Macro

〔Day Digest〕Bessent's Buyback Squeeze Meets Druckenmiller's 'Let the Bond Market Speak' Rebuke — 10Y Holds 4.70%, Kalshi 56% on Year-End ≥4.75%, TGA Float vs Long-End Fundamentals

8 source channels · 4 min read
Fed & Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Bessent Doubles Buybacks to ≥$4B With $950B TGA as Backstop, Yet 30Y Holds 5.337% and Global Tech Sells Off — Jackson Hole Verdict

11 source channels · 4 min read
China Macro

〔Day Digest〕H1 Digital Industry Revenue Hits 20.71T (+13.6%) Even as BRI Non-Financial ODI Drops 5.5% — Domestic Engine vs. Cross-Border Drag

9 source channels · 5 min read
China Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕US Floats 7.5% Overcapacity Tariff Pre-Xi-Trump; PBoC Layers 500B MLF + 600B/D Reverse Repo; Liao Min's 30T Budget Makes Fiscal a Credit-Transmission Trigger — Negotiating Chip or Pre-Summit Salvo?

10 source channels · 5 min read
Global Macro

〔Day Digest〕Synchronized Global Yield Rise Meets Thin August Liquidity, Japan Debt Service Hits Record ¥36.6T and 10Y Eyes 3% - Fading Oil Tail, Muddled Fiscal Picture

11 source channels · 4 min read
Global Macro

〔Overnight Brief〕Adachi Says BOJ September Hike Conditions Met, Cycle May Extend Past 1.5% as Bessent Presses Ueda; Carney Rejects 'Vassal' Frame, Klingbeil Pins Euro Bond Surge on Trump

9 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Day Digest〕Hormuz Transits Hit 3-Month Low as Another Tanker Is Struck; US Quietly Returns Diplomats to Eight Embassies - WTI Breaks $85 on Bessent 'Economic Outcast'

13 source channels · 4 min read
Strait of Hormuz

〔Overnight Brief〕71 Redirected, 3 Disabled in Iran Blockade as US Adds ~60 Sanctions; Iran Replies With 45-Tanker Blacklist and 'More Resolute' Warning — Hormuz 'Unobstructed' vs WTI Breakout Test

11 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Day Digest〕Embodied AI Crosses Mass Production: XPeng Locks $900M+ at $6.3B, Wujie Ships First France Batch, While Nvidia's $95B/$108B Print Hangs on Rubin's 12% Mix - China Export Charges as the Tail

9 source channels · 5 min read
AI Industry

〔Overnight Brief〕Nvidia Bundles the AI Factory - Groq 3 LPX Live, Vera Rubin 30x/MW, SpaceXAI Starmind - Yet Pre-Earnings Selloff, Hyperscaler Defection and SEC Probe Converge

12 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Day Digest〕Oil Reclaims the Wheel as 30Y Tests 2007 Highs; BOK 18-17 to 3.00% on August 27, JPMorgan Says Fed Should Sit - Two Rates, Two Directions

10 source channels · 5 min read
Research Notes

〔Overnight Brief〕$100 Brent in Q4, 30Y Briefly Tops 5.3%: Buybacks Fail, AI Capex Squeezes Duration, Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech Decides

8 source channels · 4 min read
Precious Metals

〔Day Digest〕Record $22.2B Speculative Long Lifts Gold to $4,700 Three-Month High, Then 'Mysterious' Afternoon Shorts Hit — Debasement Trade vs Pullback Bets

13 source channels · 3 min read
Precious Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕Gold Breaches $4,680 on Treasury Buyback-Fueled Debasement Bid — $22bn Spec Build at 93rd Percentile Tests Jackson Hole Conviction

7 source channels · 3 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Day Digest〕Copper Cools From $14,273 Record as Dollar Stabilizes; Lithium Cracks 5% on the Tape and -850 Yuan Spot, MIIT Staff Find No Freeze Notice - Warsh Friday and IFO Test the Bid

5 source channels · 4 min read
Industrial Metals

〔Overnight Brief〕LME Copper +$58 to $14,273 and Zinc +$12 to $3,835 Mask Diverging Supply: Las Bambas Restarts, Rusal Halts Alumina - Defense-Metals Hunt, Hindustan Copper Divestment, Seawater-Magnesium Pitch

7 source channels · 3 min read